Emails, Jim Spencer, chief weathercaster, KXAN, June 19-20, 2018
From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)
Sent: Tuesday, June 19, 2018 10:37 AM
Jim:
Hello from the American-Statesman where I focus on fact-checks for the PolitiFact Texas project.
A reader has asked us about fact-checking what the reader says you claimed in a June forecast segment. The reader says you said April became the 400th straight month with global temperatures above the 20th century average. When the data for May is official, it will be month 401…
Do you recall making this claim?
Can you point us to video of your making it?
How did you reach your finding?
We rely on attributable on-the-record information for our stories. I’d be grateful to hear back by phone or email.
Thanks,
g.
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W. Gardner Selby
Reporter / News
Austin American-Statesman
PolitiFact Texas
2:06 p.m.
I reported that information earlier this month. If you'd like the exact date, or a copy of the broadcast, I can try to track it down, but this is nothing new... I've been reporting for years the fact that the average temperature on earth has been warmer than the 20th century average EVERY SINGLE MONTH since Dec. 1984. May was month #401 in a row.
Here's where my latest information is from:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201805
That same information is posted in our weather blog:
http://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/may-was-4th-warmest-on-earth-since-1880/1247740632
Climate change is real, it is happening now, it is causing impacts across the planet, and humans are clearly increasing global warming by our emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. There is more CO2 in our atmosphere today than at any time in the last 800,000 years. And the spike began immediately after the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Coincidence? Come on. Despite what people are led to believe, there is almost no debate about this in the scientific community.
Be happy to provide any additional info you might desire...
Best,
Jim
Jim Spencer
First Warning Weather
KXAN|KNVA|KBVO
From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) <wgselby@statesman.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 20, 2018 7:59 AM
To: Jim Spencer
Subject: Following up
Jim:
We asked the state climatologist about the 401 month claim. His reply appears below. If I read right, it could be we’ve had 291 consecutive months as described. Make sense?
We rely on attributable on-the-record information for our stories.
Thanks again,
wgs
W. Gardner Selby
Editor
PolitiFact Texas
Austin American-Statesman
From: John Nielsen-Gammon
Sent: Tuesday, June 19, 2018 11:09:13 PM
To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)
Gardner -
The statement is true, based on the NOAA global temperature analysis.
There are several different global analyses, which may vary in stations used, corrections applied, and spatial interpolation. I've checked four of the most prominent ones. NOAA happens to have the longest streak of temperatures above the 20th century average, which may be why that particular statistic seems to be quoted most often with the NOAA data.
Other ongoing streaks are: 399 months (HadCRUT4, NASA, since Feb. 1985) and 308 months (Berkeley Earth, since Sept. 1992). They're all in the same ballpark for these particular months: -0.16 to -0.01 in Dec. 1984; -0.06 to +0.02 in Feb. 1985; -0.01 to +0.06 in Sept. 1992 (all temperature anomalies in C, multiply by 9/5 (but don't add 32) to get F anomalies).
HadCRUT4 provides confidence intervals: the last month whose 95% confidence interval included 0.0 was Nov. 1992. For Berkeley Earth, the last such month was Feb. 1994, with 291 months since.
So speaking scientifically, it has almost certainly been at least 291 consecutive months of global temperatures above the 20th century mean, and probably much longer, with 399 or 401 months being the best estimates. If you believe the NOAA estimate, it's 401 months.
What this means is that average global temperatures have increased so much that not even natural variability can produce a month colder than the 20th Century average, and hasn't been able to do so for some time. The global warming signal is well above the noise level. At this rate, about the only thing strong enough to cancel out global warming for a month would be a volcanic eruption much stronger than Krakatau.
People can and will derive broader meanings from this information.
John
On Tue, Jun 19, 2018, 3:26 PM Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) wrote:
Dr. Nielsen-Gammon:
It’s been a spell. I write anew as we review for PolitiFact Texas an Austin weathercaster’s claim that May 2018 marked the 401st straight month of global temperatures exceeding the 20th century average. Weathercaster Jim Spencer tells us he reached that conclusion by relying on the information posted here by NCEI.
How would you assess the accuracy of this claim?
Any concerns or caveats regarding the statement or the information posted by NCEI?
What does the number of straight months of temperatures exceeding last century’s average mean?
Other recommended research sources?
As ever, we rely on attributable on-the-record information. I am trying to complete our review by midday Wednesday.
Thanks for taking a hard look, time permitting,
g.
Want our fact checks first? Follow us on Twitter.
W. Gardner Selby
Reporter / News
Austin American-Statesman
PolitiFact Texas
3:05 p.m.
June 20, 2018
Could have been 291, but that's LEAST likely considering the other analysis he cites... I think the important point John makes is "...with 399 or 401 being the best estimates."
And, the official U.S. Dept. of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) analysis says 401 months, so I personally rate the claim as "True." 😊
If you need a NOAA contact let me know...
Jim Spencer
First Warning Weather
KXAN|KNVA|KBVO