Asxs, hospitalization, vent, and case fatality rates (Table)

What are the best current estimates for the asymptomatic rate, hospitalized rate, ventilated rate, and case fatality rate?

Authors: Lucas Keyt MS4, Zoey ZoBell MS4, Peter Clements MS4, UC San Diego School of Medicine

Completed on: March 29, 2020

Revisions: Not yet revised

Reviewed by: Marsha-Gail Davis

Reviewed on: 4/18/2020

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Related topics:

Risk factors for severe disease

Summary of information:

	Asymptomatic Rate	Hospitalized Rate	Ventilated Rate	Case fatality Rate
Global		See below	See below	0.25-4.4%1–3
EU	N/A	30% (11-41%)4	4% (2-8%) 4	Italy: 9.5%2 Spain: 7.7%2 Germany: 0.6%2 France: 5.7%2 UK: 5.2%2 Switzerland: 1.7%2 Netherlands: 6.3%2 Austria: 0.8%2 Belgium: 4.0%2 Portugal: 1.8%2 Norway: 0.5%2 Sweden: 3.0%2 Denmark: 2.4%2
China	Most recent: 3.48%3 1.25§-33.3%6		Of 138 hospitalized patients, 36 (26.0%) were transferred to ICU. Of 36, 4 (11.1%) received high-flow O2 therapy, 15 (41.7%) received noninvasive ventilation, 17 (47.2%) received invasive ventilation including 4 extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.7 6.1% mechanical ventilation8	2.3%9-3.6%10-4.3%7 5.6%10 (Wuhan City 18.9%11)
United States	N/A. Studies have just begun	20.7 - 30.4%12	4.9 - 11.5%12	Overall: 1.4%2,13 New York: 1.2%2 California: 2.0%2 Washington: 4.7%2 Louisiana: 4.3%2 Michigan: 2.1%2 Florida: 1.2%2
Diamond Princess Cruise	16.1-50.6%11 Estimated 17.9% based on model(95% Crl 15.5-20.2%)11	37 of 381 symptomatic patients required intensive care (9.7%)14	9 of 381 symptomatic patients died (1.3%)14	1.2-2.3%15

*All calculations based on data available on 3/26-3/27.

§ Based on a small (99) patient cohort.

*As these numbers are constantly being updated, additional resources are provided below:

Centre for Evidence-based Medicine: Case-fatality rate by Country

CDC: Weekly Surveillance Summary of COVID Activity

Revision log:
Date	Editor	Action/Comments
		Added regularly updated resources

References :

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11. Mizumoto K, Chowell G. Estimating the risk of 2019 Novel Coronavirus death during the course of the outbreak in China, 2020. medRxiv. February 2020:2020.02.19.20025163. doi:10.1101/2020.02.19.20025163

12. Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020. CDCMMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020;69. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6912e2

13. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html. Published April 24, 2020. Accessed April 29, 2020.

14. About new coronavirus infections. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Tokyo, Japan. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/. Published 2020. Accessed March 29, 2020.

15. Russell TW, Hellewell J, Jarvis CI, et al. Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020. Euro Surveill Bull Eur Sur Mal Transm Eur Commun Dis Bull. 2020;25(12). doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256