Earnings for week of: 11/11 to 11/15

Hello friends, let’s have another fun week in yoloing money for the sweet tendies. Remember, none of this is financial advice and I have no idea what I am talking about. When you lose money buying Apple puts, dont @ me or have your lawyer come at me for you loss. We can think of these as us learning together and me showing how I go about deciding if a stock will go up or down.

Who am I and am I qualified to do these?

I am currently a college student who will be applying to medical school in May….which means I have never taken a single finance course. I have however spent more time than I would like to admit reading books, listening to podcasts, watching videos, and talking to people who actually know what they are doing. If you look at my option posts in this subreddit I lost 1000 from not cashing out when I was in the green. Ever since then I have spent more time focusing on what I did wrong and how I can fix that for next time.

What about last week?

A weekly recap will be given at the end of this week’s plays. I will also always include my wins, loses, and what went right/wrong with my guesses for last week. I feel that a full transparency on if I am right or wrong is what is needed to make these increase in quality every week. My Robinhood account will now be to exclusively play earnings based on my DD.

FOMX$: Estimated EPS: -0.40

11/11 AMC

This one is for you poor folks, big bois shouldn’t play this since there is almost zero money on selling options.

Foamix pharma is like almost all pharmacy’s earnings, a true gamble. They recently had an acne medicine get approved by the FDA which is a major plus. However, FOMX has reported a higher loss than expected in the last few quarters. I do believe that FOMX is more of a poor man’s game and seriously...pharma is almost exclusively a gamble. Guidance could fuck this up for anyone buying options. RSI is relatively high and IV is incredibly high. Also, this stock has a lot of daily volume which is pretty nice. Due to all of these, I believe FOMX will go

DOWN

Buy slightly OTM puts or buy strangles: Sell credit spreads:

OTM puts: $4.00 03/20/2020 put

Strangles: $4.00 03/20/2020 put & $5.00 call 03/20/2020

Sell: $5.00 11/15, buy $6.00

TME$: Estimated EPS: 0.08, Whisper: 0.10

11/11 AMC

TME has pretty okay growth and more or less is the Chinese Spotify. This is more of a feeling than anything else. With TME being a Chinese company I would almost guarantee that they go above EPS and the books are definitely not cooked at all. There is quite a bit of competition and that eats away at the potential growth of TME. With bad growth and good earnings, investors really don’t care that they blow pass EPS. However, they have had time to grow and become a more integral part of the market. Because of these factors, I believe TME will go

Buy OTM calls, sell put credit spreads:

OTM calls: $15.00 01/17/2020

Put credit spreads: Sell $13.00 11/15, buy $12.00 11/15

TSN$: Estimated EPS: 1.23, Whisper: 1.23

11/12 BMO

I am here for tendies so Tyson is daddy. Tyson is another stock that could be viewed as Coke is. Recession-proof stock, pretty solid on earnings, and consistent on it’s expected growth/future quarter outlook. TSN got a new president last week and is building a new factory in Utah. This new president will help the outlook next quarter. A Tyson’s plant recently caught fire but no one got hurt so no lawsuit. With all this is mind, I believe that Tyson will go….

Buy long calls, Sell put credit spreads or iron condors

Long calls: $83.00 11/29 or $83.00 12/27

Put credit spreads: Sell $80.00 11/15, buy $79.50 OR $79.00

Iron condors: Sell $81.00 put & $86.50 call, Buy $80.50 put & $87.00...I am an idiot and this is probably what I am playing this week.

AAP$: Estimated EPS: 2.12, Whisper 2.07

11/12 BMO

Advance Auto Parts is pretty boring. I tried finding any news and it was all pretty irrelevant. Some person analyzed why the CEO makes bank when he definitely shouldn’t. AAP is definitely going to be happy tariffs weren’t pushed through and will probably provide a good outlook for the upcoming year...however next quarter is looking a little light. Growth of AAP is not high and that will definitely be a point of contention. Without growth and blowing past estimated EPS, there will not be a lot of good news for AAP. Small returns next quarter and missing this quarter could definitely drop this stock significantly. RSI is pretty stable and Wallstreet thinks it is going to beat earnings. Wallstreet has been wrong 7/8 last quarters. I believe that AAP will go….

DOWN

Buy puts, sell call credit spread

Puts: $165.00 12/20 or $160.00 12/20

Call credit spread: Sell $180.00 11/15, buy $185.00 11/15

ENR$: Estimated EPS: 0.83, Whisper: 0.81

11/13 BMO

Energizer is also a pretty lame stock to look at. I am sad that TSLA doesn’t report every week. Anyways, Energizer is currently trying to buy Spectrum Brands for 2 billion but the EU is providing some resistance to it. This deal has been nothing but a shitshow for Varta, Energizer, and Spectrum since it started. The EU is pretty good at not allowing monopolies and ENR reported that they suspected a loss by the end of all of this. There really isn’t a lot of growth potential for ENR but what ENR has grown is their debt. This company has less cash on hand but a shit ton of debt. They are moving to manufacture in a different city which means...MORE DEBT. I would probably bet my life ENR will not have a good earnings call. With all this in mind, I believe that ENR$ will go….

DOWN

Buy puts, sell call credit spreads:

Puts: $40.00 12/20

Call credit spreads: Sell, $45.00 11/15, buy $50.00 11/15

There is not a lot of money to be made selling options here. I would definitely say the chance of losing is small but if you do lose, you LOSE big. I would buy puts.

WMT$: Estimated: $1.15, Whisper: $1.09

11/14 BMO

I am going to spend about two seconds with WalMart. We all know they are going to announce they are doing well. We all know they are going to say their new WalMart aisle pick up thing is doing well. WalMart is basically a Disney and I learned my lesson last week. Do not underestimate what these giants can do and what they will report. With all that in mind, I believe that WMT$ will go….

Buy slightly ITM calls or straddle, sell put credit spreads

ITM calls: $119.00 11/22 or $118.00 11/22

Straddles: $119.00 11/22 or $118.00 11/15

Put credit spreads: Sell $116.00 11/15, buy $115.00 11/15

I might go a little more ATM on the put spreads

NDVA$: Estimated EPS: $1.58, Whisper: $1.64

11/14 AMC

Similar to WalMart I am going to keep this short. You actually might have a brain disease if you think Nvidia is going to tank on earnings. NDVA is the big boy AMD. Growth is looking good in the next two years and I think all these self driving cars will be pretty good for NDVA long run. NVDA has some general cost problems and outlooks for next year are looking like it will be down but pretty great after that. With the lesson from last week fresh in my head, I believe that NDVA will go....

DOWN

Buy puts, sell call spreads

Puts: $207.50 12/06 or $205.00

Call Spreads: Sell 217.50 11/15, buy $220.00 11/15

WEED STOCKS:

They are all going down….they are weed stocks.

CRON$, 11/12 BMO: Buy puts, sell naked deep otm puts

If you get stuck holding Cron from the puts, big deal. You’ll have a stock you can sell calls on them. Cron has a lot of volume so you can do the weeklies until you get rid of your 100 shares of meme stock. Cron might have a chance of making money but it is a weed stock so flip a coin and choose your side.

CGC$ 11/14 AMC: Buy puts, sell call spreads

Unlike Cron, CGC reported they sales are greater than expected...however, they are still going to have a bad rest of the year and probably another bad year before they start turning real money. Again, weed stock is a meme stock. Do what you want. I would personally avoid both of these.

What I am Playing:

WMT$ Put spreads

TSN$ Iron condors

NDVA$: Call spread

Last Week’s Recap:

Uber$: As we all know, Uber got destroyed during earnings. Even though they lost less than they expected they won't be profitable for another seven years. Because of that, they lost 13ish% the day after earnings. If you bought my Uber calls, I'm sorry but thanks for the premium. If you bought puts, I hope you sold the day after when Uber was very lowed and still had speculation when the lockup ends. If you did either of these you made a shit ton of money. Buy yourself something as pretty, as pretty as you are. :)

Chegg$: Chegg came from downtown and reported a .18 eps compared to the .08 that was expected. There isn't a lot to say here. Chegg growth was good and the services it is providing is growing. I didn't listen to their earnings call because I thought it would be very boring...so just take the W and your tendies.

Match$: Fuck me. Seriously, Match hit me hard. While I was right that they were going to exceed the estimated EPS, they had terrible guidance. Tinder has over 1.6 million gold members and they expect it to grow over the next year. Announcing more of a focus on global expansion in places such and Japan and India. Something I did not factor was that people are more lonely than ever. More lonely people means more money.

I said that the lawsuit wouldn't affect them this quarter which was correct, however, it will affect the next quarter. During the call, they discussed a future 80 million dollar cost in litigation and lawyer fees. However, a new language translating app has hit the market and been growing successfully. Without the litigation and split Match would've mooned. Sorry to the people who listened to me on Match. Next time I'll focus on the effects that litigation will have on guidance.

Humana$: So Humana's call was very boring. Zzz. But they did announce some great things. It was the general consensus that Medicare was a major profit point of Humana which is why I said go calls. Their focus on becoming a more integral part of Medicare over the next year is going to be a plus. They announced there is a focus on Florida, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Texas.

They verified and discussed the 1 billion dollar effort to buy shares back. Humana did report $0.50ish above their estimated EPS. Humana is focused on reinvesting into Humana and LASER FOCUSED on hitting next year's earnings. Listen to the Q&A to hear BofA suck Humana's dick about how happy they are about that. Enjoy the gains, ladies. By the end of the week, 300 calls went from being worth 3.0 each to 16.00 each. If you held until Friday you printed. If you sold early you still made a decent amount of money.

Disney$: Man, Disney was my biggest miss. The giant reported they 1.07 when it was expected to be .94. I did not think about how Toy Story 4 came out and even though people have stopped going to the park, that means Disney can cut costs. Their guidance was great with Frozen 2 coming out soon and Disney+ right around the corner. If you sold the 136 calls as I said, you were assigned and lost money. As with Match, guidance definitely mattered a lot here and I did not factor that as much as I should have.

Weekly tally: 3/5, 60% Total tally: 3/5, 60%

My gains for the week:

+$65.00, or +43%. Gains from Uber call spreads.

Total account value: $268.00

I have decided that I will only be playing earnings on Robinhood and showing the trades starting this week.

Lesson Learned from Last Week:

Guidance matters. Guidance matters as much, if not more than what the EPS is. By not factoring in guidance on Match and Disney. I thought both options were very in the bag but guidance definitely influenced the stock significantly more than I would’ve imagined.

Further, lawsuits really do matter and is something that should be factored in. I was too dismissive of the impact a lawsuit will have even though no real litigation has occurred yet.