Prediction of disaster

First of all, we should know what is meant by prediction. “Prediction is any statement which tells us about any information or any event which has chances to happen in the future”. It is, sometimes, based on personal experience or knowledge but not always. Disaster means any serious damage that occurs for a shorter or longer period of time and may cause huge damage or loss to human, economic, environment, etc.

Now, the prediction of the disaster means to give any information about any event that may cause harm in the future based on personal experience or knowledge. It may include natural disasters or human-made disasters.

Types of disasters:

1. Natural disaster: A natural disaster is a phenomenon that causes injuries, property damage, loss of services, livelihoods, and lives, economic and social damage, environmental damage, etc by mother nature. Natural disasters include landslides, floods, earthquakes, volcanic explosions, tornadoes, hurricanes, cyclones, tsunamis, billiards, and pandemics that have killed thousands of people worldwide causing serious loss of billions of dollars of property and habitat every year worldwide. Due to the rapid growth of the world’s population and due to the hazardous environment, these factors have increased both the severity and frequency of disasters. Deforestation, tropical climate, unstable landforms, non-engineered constructions, unplanned growth proliferation, etc increase the vulnerability of disaster-prone areas. Developing countries have paid a huge cost of losses due to natural disasters. According to researchers, 95% of all deaths have been caused by natural disasters in developing countries which are 20 times greater as compared to industrialized countries.
2. Human-made disasters: Human-made disasters are the disasters that cause great loss to humanity through technology or human-errors. Fires, industrial accidents, terrorist attacks, nuclear explosions, nuclear radiations, wars, oil spills, deliberate attacks, transport accidents, stampedes, etc are common examples of human-made disasters. These disasters seem to occur due to human error or failure to conduct proper emergency management measures.

As you can clearly understand the basic concept. Now, it's time to move towards prediction. Prevention of natural and human-made disasters might not be possible but a prediction can be possible with the advancement of technology.

Prediction of such disasters by using technology requires massive research and funding. Scientists are required to investigate past disasters to find patterns in natural phenomena. They do the study on tracking radar systems of seismic waves which are in-depth on the Earth. By comparing the former records with existing data, specific trends give a warning of future events to the scientists on which they do the prediction of disasters. Trends are used to predict earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic explosions.

How scientists make a prediction on natural disasters:

                For earthquakes, seismic instruments are used to measure shaking in the crust of Earth as fault line slips of geology. In the depth of the ocean, these sensors monitor the deformation of the seabed and volume displacements.

                For tsunamis, scientists collected data by using a chain of early-warning oceanic devices such as wave-height sensors and DART (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis buoys). These sensors observe seismic events under the waves which then transmits the alerts to land through surface buoys for tsunami alerts.

                For storms, meteorologists study patterns in the weather which provide data by using remote sensing and through on-ground observation that show the development of tornadoes and hurricanes. Overview of weather development is given to weather scientists via satellites which are very useful in the tracking of storms.

                Tornadoes are difficult to predict because these are very faster-moving events. For this purpose, meteorologists use “Doppler Radars” to monitor moving objects like rain or hail within developing supercell clouds. Improvements in doppler radar have increased warnings from about three minutes in the late 1980s to about 14 minutes’ notice in 2012.

Future trends and Evolution in technology:

Upgradation of instruments and innovation in technology is now helping to improve the prediction of natural disasters.

1. Volcanologists can make a prediction by listening to volcanoes by using infrasound waves at frequencies lower than what human ears can detect to show that when a volcano is “grumbling” from magma expansion and lava-cone collapse.
2. Tornado scientists can collect data within the storm itself by placing protected “Radar Arrays” in a tornado country.
3. Meteorologists can investigate “phased-array radar” for storm watching, the multiple beams can reduce scanning time for collecting data.
4. Researchers are also finding better ways to examine and display data for quicker and more reliable predictions. Researchers can combine the systems by using two different techniques/systems/radars together to aggregate information, then present these data in an easily accessible manner to clarify key questions like What? Why? When? Where?
5. Moreover, measurement of pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, the direction of a hurricane, amount of liquid water and water vapor by using different sensors and radars can also help the scientist to make a prediction of natural disasters.

Hazards of Disasters

First of all, we should actually know what the hazards mean?

“Hazard is basically any type of source which has enough potential to cause any kind of harm to a vulnerable target”. Hazards can be caused by both nature and human-made. Floods can also be caused by poor drainage facilities. Droughts can be caused by groundwater pollution or over-irrigation.

Types of Hazards:

1. Biological hazards: Biological hazards are found in biological processes of living organisms, and introduced to agents that may cause a threat to the health of living organisms, or to the health of the environment. Biological hazards are also called biohazards. These hazards include viruses, bacteria, fungi, parasites, food, mould, and foreign toxins.
2. Chemical hazards: Chemical hazards are those hazards that are associated with chemicals. In simple words, those hazards that are caused by different chemicals that have enough potential to cause harm to the health of living organisms or to the health of the environment are called chemical hazards. Some chemicals are toxics, and some are poisonous. Health hazards associated with chemicals depend upon the amount or dose of the chemical is taken. It can include high doses of pesticides, insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, etc applied to the crops which are consumed by humans as well as animals.
3. Physical hazard: Physical hazards are naturally occurring processes that have enough potential to cause loss or damage to the living organisms as well as to the environment. It includes earthquakes, floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, storms, volcanoes, etc.

Status or mode of hazards: Hazards are classified into three statuses: Dormant, Armed, Active.

1. Dormant: The situation of the environment is currently affected.  For example, an unstable hillside with landslide potential but there is nothing on or below the hillside that can be affected.
2. Armed: This status shows that people, their property, or the environment are in the way of potential harm.
3. Active: This status indicates that a harmful incident containing a hazard has actually occurred. It can also be called an “accident emergency” or disaster.

Hazard and Natural Disasters:

                A natural disaster is a disaster that is caused by nature. It includes floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, which affect society through the loss of lives or through damage to property. Hazards which come under the umbrella of natural disaster are as follows:

• Geological hazards are those hazards which occur due to volcanic activity and movement in the tectonic plates. Earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions are common examples of geological hazards.
• Hydrological hazards are those hazards which occur as a result of phenomenons and processes in the water. For example, floods, droughts, and tsunamis.
• Meteorological hazards are those hazards which occur as a result of phenomenons and process in the atmosphere. These hazards include hurricanes, extreme temperatures, droughts, tornadoes, and extremely severe storms.
• Biological hazards are those hazards that are caused by the biological process of Earth. It primarily involves the spread of pests and diseases. Pandemics, epidemics, and insect swarms all fall into this category.

Natural hazards also fall into three categories on the basis of extent and speed of hazard. These are given below:

• Catastrophic hazards are large scale hazards that have affected a large number of people. These hazards have worldwide effects. Large volcanic eruptions, pandemics, and worldwide droughts are all common examples of catastrophic natural hazards.
• Rapid onset hazards are those hazards which occur quickly with little warning. Earthquakes, landslides, flash floods, volcanic eruptions, are all common examples of rapid-onset hazards.
• Slow onset hazards are those hazards that occur slowly but take years to grow. Droughts, insect infestations, and epidemics are included in slow-onset hazards.

Effects of natural hazards and disasters:

        Natural disasters have three different types of effects:

1. Primary effects: Primary effects are the immediate result of natural disasters, such as water damage and collapsed buildings.
2. Secondary effects:  Secondary effects are the result of primary effects. For example, power interruptions due to fallen trees or damaged buildings, and fires from cracked gas lines. In these examples, the fallen trees and the damaged building are primary effects that cause power interruptions and fires which are secondary effects.
3. Tertiary effects: Tertiary effects are the long term effects of natural disasters. These effects include differences in the landscape and natural features, loss of habitat, and crop failure or reduction due to colder temperatures or other obstacles

Natural Hazards/Disasters and Human Response:

        One of the bestest human responses to natural disasters and hazards is to prepare for their occurrence. As technology has been upgraded and improved, humans have the ability to predict, prepare, and forecast natural disasters that have chances of occurrence in the future. There are some responses of human towards disasters:

• Hazard Assessment: Scientists use hazard assessment when they study natural disasters to determine different characteristics of various hazards. Hazard assessment is totally different from risk assessment because hazard assessment mainly focuses on natural processes of possible incidents while the risk assessments determine the timing and location of past hazardous phenomenons, frequency, and severity of the past hazardous process, and organize important information related to these disasters into usable forms for policymakers and officials.
• Risk assessment: It consolidates the information from hazard assessments. It also includes possible socio-economic impacts. A risk assessment includes locations of infrastructure and buildings in hazardous zones, the potential for vulnerability due to the physical impacts of a hazard, community vulnerability in the hazardous event becomes a disaster, and a hazard assessment.
• A prediction is a statement of the possibility that an event will occur. According to terms of natural disasters, predictions are made through various scientific researches, investigations, and observations. A common observation that can lead to a prediction is the identification of a precursor event. A precursor event is basically a smaller event that leads to a larger event. For example, tropical depression can lead to a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane or various small earthquakes around a volcano showing an expected outburst.
• Forecasting is related to a prediction and it is used synonymously. However, in certain cases, a forecast can be insignificantly different from a prediction. The term “forecast” is used as a short-term prediction of the severity, timing, and location of weather-related accidents. It can also be used for the long-term possibilities of an event happening within a certain time period.

Risk of Disaster

“Risk is the probability of something negative is going to be happening”. In simple words, we say that risk is the possibility or fear of injury, damage, loss, liability, or any other negative circumstances that may be caused by internal or external vulnerabilities. It involves uncertainty about the impacts of activity with respect to something that has value in the human’s life such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment, etc, focusing on negative and undesirable consequences.

“Risk of disaster can be explained as the possibility of injury, destruction, or loss of thousands of lives, and damage from a disaster either natural or human-made within a given span of time”. The risk of disaster is widely known as the outcome of the interaction between a hazard and the features that make places and people unprotected and exposed.

Risk = Exposure X Hazard X Vulnerability

Exposure: It can be described as “circumstances of people, production capacities, infrastructure, housing, and other visible human assets which are located in the hazard-prone areas.

Vulnerability: It can be defined as “the circumstances determined by economical,  physical, social, and environmental factors or methods which enhance the susceptibility of a community, individual, assets or operations to the consequences of hazards”.

Hazards: It can be defined as “Hazard is basically any type of source which has enough potential to cause any kind of harm to a vulnerable target”.

The reduction of risk of disaster:

DRR stands for Disaster risk management which is the systematic approach to identify, assess, and reduce risks of disaster. The main purpose of DDR is to reduce socio-economics possibilities/vulnerabilities to disaster and deal with environmental factors and hazardous factors as well that may trigger them. For making risk assessments for reduction of disaster, the first is always to be done the research. Disaster research usually deals with conducting field and survey research on the groups, organizational and community preparations for disasters and their response to disasters, and recovery from natural and human-made disasters. After completing proper research on causes of risk of disaster, the next step should understand the reasons and apply the proper plan on the reduction of disaster. We can avoid disasters by managing risks.

• Address already existing risk
• Try to avoid construction of new risks
• Education and awareness about the risk disasters, prediction, and preparedness about disasters, and warning systems can reduce the destructive effects of natural disasters on individuals and on communities. Risk reduction measures include the adoption of zoning, good land-use practices, and building codes that are needed to prevent and reduce actual damage from hazards.
• The most prominent way to measure the data and progress of disaster risk reduction of the country is to observe the number of loss of lives and costs of economic situations that has resulted from either natural disasters or human-made disasters.