Reflections on Climate change

When teaching or speaking in the open air I am supportive of the need to protect the environment particularly as we now have a population of 8 billion and a vastly increased world economy - both of which apply significant pressure on the environment. I very much appreciate the Earthshot programme which encourages a holistic approach and is looking to humans for practical solutions - seeing them as potential agents of blessing rather than being a curse to the earth. It is a message of hope with a balanced respect for the role of governments and individuals in solving the problems we face. With respect to climate change I do not have a strong position either way and am aware that people I deeply respect have very strong positions on both sides of the argument. Below are my tentative thoughts on this subject for what they are worth. My general observation using my understanding of philosophy is that all human knowledge is provisional unless it has been revealed by God. This is not a council for total scepticism because I think it is reasonable to assign levels of certainty to our knowledge based on the quality of the evidence we have - which you will see that I have done in my comments below. However this provisionality does mean we should listen to and respect those who take a different approach and that is what I have tried to do with climate change and with the other contentious issue of the day Covid 19. (With regard to sexual ethics which can also be a contentious issue I believe we do have access to revealed knowledge therefore I feel able to hold a more robust approach to my beliefs.)

Climate Change

There are three issues that need to be addressed

Firstly, is the data indicating global warming accurate?

Highly likely - on balance whilst there is probably evidence of occasional inappropriate handling of the figures in general the evidence of our own eyes and experience seems to suggest our winters are getting milder and there seems to be more cases of severe heat in the summer than forty years ago. However where accusations of manipulation are made they should be investigated and courteously responded to. Over the last few years there has been a loss of confidence in the integrity of those in authority. The reasons for this are complex, some of it is due to the growth of conspiracy theories, some due to deliberate misinformation strategies but some is due those in authority wishing to control the public narrative. This was seen in the early days of Covid 19 when dissenting voices were shut down. This approach has helped create an environment in which a significant number of people have a very deep scepticism towards experts that promote the official view. To win back that trust, high levels of integrity in presenting information must be adhered to and those that disagree must be shown respect.

Secondly, is global warming mainly the product of human causes (including increased CO2)?

Likely - such correlations are very difficult to establish so it is unlikely to be any higher than this. Furthermore, figure 1 (see section at the end) indicates that the type of warming we are currently experiencing is similar to two recent periods of global warming 1860-1880 and 1920-1940, and neither of these periods of global warming could have been the result of CO2 in which case, assuming this graph is accurate (my scepticism with regard to data cuts both ways) then an argument could be made that CO2 is not necessarily the cause but other as yet unknown factors are the cause. I am assuming the science for this correlation is strong but there are many scientists who are not so convinced so as with the data to restore trust in the academic process those that disagree with this correlation should be treated with respect and should be encouraged to publish in journals and actively recruited to Universities so that there is always a diversity of views. (Would that this open minded approach was adopted with regard to the formation of the rocks and the origin/development of life - closing down opposing ideas is unwise in academia)

Thirdly, are the solutions being proposed appropriate?

I remain undecided as I can see both points of view. There is a sense among many who question the orthodox position on climate change that some of the solutions suggested are not only very expensive but in some cases deliberately designed to destroy our society. I think we should protect the environment and with a population of 8 billion this is going to be a big issue across the board, but I am not convinced that all the solutions being suggested are appropriate and we need to phase things in more gradually lest we end up causing more problems than we solve. Furthermore, creating large multinational organisations to control this agenda could lead to a very dangerous form of one world government.

Figure 1

The amount of anthropogenic CO2 has risen fairly consistently since 1880, but the global temperature has not; there have been periods of warming and cooling (see Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Global temperature and human-generated carbon dioxide emissions from 1850–2010.28 

A prominent member of the climate establishment, Dr Phil Jones, admitted that the rates of global warming from 1860–1880, 1910–1940, and 1975–1998 (the red lines in Fig. 1) “are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other”.28 However, the amounts of human-generated CO2 at those times (green line in Fig. 1) are very different. Indeed, the rate of rise in temperature 1860–1880 is similar to the recent rise, and yet the amount of human-generated CO2 is about 60 times greater for the latter period. And there have also been significant periods of cooling (1880–1910 and 1940–1950) and while CO2 emissions were rising. These data show that the global temperature is not rising consistently with the increased production of human-generated CO2. Note that the chart shows human-generated CO2, not total atmospheric CO2, which has risen less than 50% since pre-industrial times. These observations cast doubt on the claim that human-generated CO2 is the prime cause of periods of global warming since 1880.

This extract came from the following Creation Ministries article https://creation.com/climate-change