New Hampshire results transcript

02.12.20 / NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTS

[THEME]

<CLIP> CROWD: BERNIE! BERNIE! BERNIE!

<CLIP> SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS: Let me say tonight that this victory, here, is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump!

CROWD: <cheers>

SEAN RAMESWARAM (Host): Ella Nilsen, tell the people where you are--where you are reporting for Vox from right now?

ELLA NILSEN (Reporter, Vox): So I am in the fieldhouse of Southern New Hampshire University, where Bernie Sanders just addressed a very loud crowd. People are hugging each other. I don't know if you can hear that, but there’s some chanting going on over here. <laughs> It was kind of funny seeing Bernie—like, a man who doesn't doesn't--doesn’t smile that often, I feel like. He was just beaming when he came out tonight and addressed people.

SEAN: Did any of his followers have anything interesting to say to you while you were there tonight?

ELLA: His supporters here, especially the ones that have been with him in 2016, feel like they have never been this close to him winning the nomination. Like, I think that there is this palpable feeling that he could really do it this time. Especially if he does well with--with black voters and with Latino voters, that he has a real path to the Democratic nomination and people here were really excited about that.

SEAN: Hmm.

ELLA: The other thing was I actually talked to somebody who was from Berlin, Germany, who came all the way out here. I mean, he...I think he works in the U.S. sometimes. But he volunteered...he was volunteering with this Sanders campaign for the past few weeks along with, he said, some people from Norway and some people from Denmark.

SEAN: Sure! They love socialism out there.

ELLA: <laughs> Yeah. They love democratic socialism out there. He was sort of saying like he has certainly never been this excited about an American candidate. I mean, he was just saying it's really exciting to see a candidate fighting so openly for a lot of the things that Europe already has, basically — a lot of the programs that they already have.

SEAN: And how was turnout tonight? People were saying that the turnout in Iowa didn't look great if Democrats are planning to beat Donald Trump in the general election. How was it tonight in New Hampshire?

ELLA: It was actually better than 2016 levels, according to some of the initial reports that we saw.

SEAN: Huh!

ELLA: I'm not ready to make any big predictions yet on how this could impact general election turnout, but the other thing is, you know, it's also hard to judge because there was no competitive Republican primary here. So it's tough to tell how Republicans might also turn out in the general election.

SEAN: How about second and third? How did other people do?

ELLA: Yeah, I mean, the big surprise tonight was with Amy Klobuchar. I mean, there had been some polling recently showing that she was doing all of a sudden a lot better than expected. But you have to remember, she came out of Iowa in fifth place. And I think that the big turning point for her in New Hampshire came from a combination of a lot of people that were still undecided and didn't know who they wanted to support. Maybe some more voters that were looking at more moderate candidates. And she had a really good debate performance here last week. And I think that, you know, a lot of times debates don't necessarily change things in a race. But this... in this case, it seemed like people started having these internal conversations and dialogues this week and even up until the final day or two.

SEAN: So what does this mean for, like, the campaigns of Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden? Are they kind of now on life support?

ELLA: Yeah, I mean, Biden...Biden didn't even stick around in New Hampshire for his election party tonight. He went straight to South Carolina and like addressed his New Hampshire supporters from there. So he is really hoping that he can kind of bolster his support, his campaign among African-American voters in South Carolina and Latino voters in Nevada. But I mean, he has now lost and lost badly. I mean, he came in fourth place in Iowa and he came in fifth place in New Hampshire. That's not just a loss. That's like a trouncing. And so I just think that making a pitch, especially making a pitch on electability to voters in Nevada and South Carolina is going to be really tough when you have the record that Biden has so far. And as far as Warren, I mean, this is a really tough state for her to lose. I mean, she is a Massachusetts senator, so she's from right over the border. She was a well-known entity in New Hampshire. It's not like she was starting with low name recognition. Like, her campaign sent out a memo today about their path forward and talking about some of these more diverse states. She's going to be campaigning in Virginia pretty soon, but this is not good for her. And her campaign was counting on some momentum. And they just did not get that tonight at all.

SEAN: But it was an even tougher night for two of the candidates who dropped out, right?

ELLA: Yes. So Andrew Yang and Colorado Senator Michael Bennet both dropped out tonight. And I think that both of them were kind of pinning a lot of their hopes on New Hampshire. I mean, Andrew Yang had spent a lot of time campaigning here. And I mean, I had heard from a lot of voters that said that they really liked him and they really liked his message. I was kind of going into election night looking to see if he would get some sort of bump. But I just think that people were so concerned with electability this year that I think a lot of folks didn't really want to throw their vote to somebody who was unknown and who they didn't really think could beat Trump. And the same thing with Michael Bennet, I mean, he had staked his entire campaign on New Hampshire, but he just hadn't really been getting any traction for months. He had been stuck at somewhere between zero and one percent in the polls. And I mean, he was sort of like campaigning like the old New Hampshire way. He was doing all these house parties that Lauren Chooljian talked about in Tuesday's episode. And he just wasn't getting anywhere. He was gaining no traction. So he had to call it tonight.

SEAN: Well, you know what, Ella, I think before we go to the break, we're going to take a minute to remember our friends, Senator Michael Bennet and Andrew Yang.

ELLA: OK. Sounds good.

SCORING IN

<CLIP> ANDREW YANG: I know what you’re thinking, America. How am I still on this stage with them?

CROWD: <laughs>

<CLIP> ANDREW YANG: If you go to the factory in Michigan it’s not wall-to-wall immigrants, it’s wall-to-wall robot arms and machines.

<CLIP> ANDREW YANG: We have to send the opposite message of this administration. And as your president, I think I can send a very clear message—where if you are considering immigrating to this country, and I am president, you will realize my son or daughter can become President of the United States.

<CLIP> ANDREW YANG: You know, I am the math guy. And it is clear tonight from the numbers that we are not going to win this race. And so tonight, I am announcing I am suspending my campaign for president.

CROWD MEMBER: We love you, Andrew!

ANDREW YANG: I love you, too! Thank you, New Hampshire.

<CLIP> MICHAEL BENNET: When there’s a group of kids in this country that don’t get preschool through no fault of their own, and another group does, equal is not equal. And we’ve got a group of K-12 schools that are good because families can spend a million bucks and you’ve got the Detroit public schools that are as segregated as they were, equal is not equal!

CROWD: <cheers>

<CLIP> MICHAEL BENNET: Tonight isn’t gonna be our night, but let me say this to New Hampshire: you may see me once again.

SEAN: After the break on Today, Explained, Matthew Yglesias makes the case for President Bernie Sanders.

[MIDROLL]

SEAN: Matthew Yglesias, the politics team here at VOX wrote up arguments for each of the leading Democratic presidential candidates in this race. And you wrote about Bernie, what's the argument in favor of Vermont Senator Bernard Sanders?

MATTHEW YGLESIAS (Vox, Reporter): Key to the argument is -- his electoral performance is a lot better than people realize. He's been a more pragmatic legislator than a lot of people realize. And I think in a way he could be a unifying candidate that brings Trump's opponents together and wins the election in November, which fundamentally is what mainstream Democrats want.

SCORING <NEW TENSION 01>

SEAN: OK. Well, let's get into it. I mean, let's talk about his legislative history and his legislative agenda. I think one of the arguments against Bernie is that he actually hasn't accomplished that much in the Senate. Is that a fair argument?

MATTHEW: His legislative agenda is very expansive. What I think is important to understand about Sanders, though, is that he's not somebody who has blown up needed compromises, right? He sometimes defects. Sometimes a bill is going to go through the Senate with 80 votes and he casts a ‘No.’ He says, ‘You know, we should hold out for more.’ But when they needed every Democrat to vote for the Affordable Care Act, when they needed every Democrat to vote for the Dodd-Frank bill, for the Obama stimulus, for anything like that, he is there.

<CLIP> SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS: This stimulus package is not perfect. But it will go a long way in Vermont and throughout this country to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure, move us to energy independence and sustainable energy, protect working families hurt by this recession and most importantly create millions of good paying jobs.

MATTHEW: He understands how the political system works. And when you have to take half a loaf, he was known in the House of Representatives for getting a lot of bipartisan amendments passed.

<CLIP> SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS: Senator John McCain of Arizona and I have tried our best to come forward with an agreement, it’s an agreement which I’m sure he is not 100% happy about and I can fully assure you I am not 100% happy about. I would have written a very, very different bill.

MATTHEW: It's true, he's not the greatest legislative titan in the history of the Senate, but he's also not this ignoramus that some of his supporters on Twitter sometimes seem like.

SEAN: Mm-hmm.

MATTHEW: He's been a member of Congress for a long time. He knows how hard it is to get coalitions together for bills. And he knows the importance of making compromises to get things done. So I don't think there's any reason to worry that as president, he would be unable to deal with the realities of legislating.

SCORING OUT

SEAN: Hmmm. And what do you think as president, he would make his, you know, first act? His first 100 days, his first year? What's Bernie going to dive into?

MATTHEW: I think health care, he's very passionate about healthcare. He's passionate about his Medicare for All crusade.

<CLIP> SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS (D-VT) The idea that the United States of America should join every other country on earth in guaranteeing healthcare to every man, woman and child, this is not a radical idea. In fact, poll after poll shows that a majority of the American people support that idea...

MATTHEW: I think it's obvious that, like, we're not going to pass a bill that's as expansive as that.

SEAN: As expensive as Bernie’s Medicare for All?

MATTHEW: Yeah, as expansive as his proposal. I think the real view from his team is that you need someone who is committed to fighting against the special interests that block this kind of action that anything you do, right? Whether it's the modest prescription drug pricing reform that House Democrats are trying to do, whether it's the bipartisan reform on surprise billing that is kicking around the Senate, all of these things get blocked by the exact same nexus of interest groups who lead the opposition to Medicare for All. So you may as well just see and what you can get out of an actual legislative process. But I think they think you will get the most by naming the bad guys and taking them on.

SEAN: So Bernie, of course, wrote the damn bill.

<CLIP> SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS: I wrote the damn Bill.

SEAN: We've heard it a million times at this point, but he isn't the only person supporting the damn bill anymore. So why, Bernie, over someone say like Elizabeth Warren, who at least at some point has said that she's on board with a similar kind of plan?

MATTHEW: So I agree. I mean, I actually think in terms of legislative outputs, you're not going to see a huge difference between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren or even Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar or Joe Biden. Because the way legislation works is it depends on Congress, right? If you really, your primary consideration is what bills are going to pass, like you should focus on the Senate race in Maine, Senate race in Arizona, Senate race in Colorado. That's what's going to determine it, not the choice of president. But the most far out there Bernie Sanders proposals are not going to become law no matter what happens. You're going to get the same kind of incremental change however you want. But if you want a sort of unified Democratic Party taking the fight to Trump, taking the fight to Republicans and selling the base on the need for compromise, there's nobody better than Sanders to do it.

SEAN: Bernie never sells it that way. Do you think he believes that? Do you think he believes that once he gets into office, he will be the people's champion and thus temper his ambitions?

MATTHEW: I think that Bernie understands that it is hard to pass bills and that, you know, there's not going to be like a parting of the clouds and all obstacles vanish. But I think he also rightly thinks that some of the people who preach pragmatism are, in fact, being influenced by money and campaign contributions and lobbying and their desires, and that people look and they say, ‘Why have Democrats been talking about lowering prescription drug costs for 20 years, right? How is it that that never gets done?’ And it's not because nobody knows that you may have to trim your sails a little or make deals.

SEAN: Yeah.

MATTHEW: It’s that these are very popular ideas that wind up not happening because of the influence of money in politics, right? And it's not that a Sanders’ presidency eliminates all of those obstacles, but it means that you will have a president who is making bargains literally because of vote counts, not because of the impact of money.

SEAN: So if there is a President Sanders and if he does need to compromise his agenda, what do those compromises actually look like, you think?

MATTHEW: You know, I think some form of a public option of opening up of Medicare. He actually co-sponsored a public option bill back in the 2016 cycle.

SEAN: Yeah.

MATTHEW: Before sort of raising his aspirations and then things on prescription drug costs. And that's an issue that he has been a champion of forever and that mainstream Democrats are increasingly comfortable with. But they've never quite sealed the deal on cutting prescription drug costs. I think if Sanders is in the White House, right? This is a guy who's been fighting pharma for decades.

SEAN: Yeah.

MATTHEW: And he is going to tell everyone, like, ‘We are going to get this done at last,’ and they really will.

SEAN: It's kind of funny, though, because what you're talking about, a public option, for example, is essentially like the compromise position that Biden and Klobuchar are arguing for against Bernie's Medicare-for-All.

MATTHEW: But this is what the perversity of American politics, right? Is Barack Obama runs and wins on a public option platform.

SEAN: Yeah.

MATTHEW: So you get the ACA with no public option.

SEAN: Yeah.

MATTHEW: I think if you run and win on a Medicare for all platform, you might get a public option if you're lucky, right?

SEAN: <laughs> Yeah.

MATTHEW: But the president always gets less than what he ran on.

SEAN: Right.

MATTHEW: Because of the dynamics in Congress.

SEAN: I wonder, you know, you talk about Bernie potentially rallying this coalition of supporters from the left, but also the center. You've got people like James Carville talking to our colleague Sean Illing last week about how he's “scared to death,” about Sanders’ ability to beat Trump, to unify the left as well as centrists. Tell me about the argument that Bernie could actually do that. How do you see it happening?

MATTHEW: So, look, we can look at people's electoral track records, right? Some politicians do better than average in their home state and some do worse. And it is 100 percent true. The politicians who do better than average are typically moderates. Joe Manchin is one of the great over performers in the U.S. Senate, but Bernie Sanders is also an over performer. You look at any year that he was on the ballot and there was also a presidential election, 1992 and 1996, 2000. It's happened over and over again. And he runs ahead of the Democratic ticket, right?

SEAN: Hmm.

MATTHEW: It's not that like every leftist does that -- that's not true at all. But Bernie Sanders does. He is a very effective politician. He is an effective campaigner. And, you know, he does it a few different ways. One is his personal reputation for integrity. The other is this whole weird thing where he's not really a Democrat. It seems to help him get the votes of people who go for third parties, that there was a lot of Perot/Sanders crossover votes.

SEAN: Huh!

MATTHEW: There was a lot of Stein/Sanders crossover votes. But even Johnson/Sanders crossover votes right? To people who are suspicious of party politics and business as usual, Sanders seems like a free thinking person, a person of integrity. Somebody who they can trust. It's hard to scale that up from Vermont to nationwide, but it should give people like Carville, people who worry about electability, some sense of reassurance that, like, this is a guy who has run and won and done very, very well in those elections. I mean, Vermont is obviously not a swing state, but he's doing better than Barack Obama, better than Hillary Clinton, better than Bill Clinton in his home state.

SEAN: Hmm. And as we move in our heads to the hypothetical of Bernie actually running against President Trump, I wonder, how does Bernie fare against someone who wants to paint him and his his friends like AOC as just socialists and scare people into winning votes?

MATTHEW: If it was me, if you could go back in time and have Bernie Sanders not call himself a socialist, I would definitely take that. People who think that's a handicap, they are correct. Socialism is a label. It polls very poorly. But he's been calling himself a socialist for a long time. He's been making it work. And the other advantages, Republicans have been calling every Democrat they run against a socialist for a long time. And to an extent, you know, they're sort of the political party that cried wolf on this.

<CLIP> SENATOR MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY): Over there it seems as though far left socialist ideology is increasingly becoming mainstream Democratic party doctrine.

SENATOR RICK SCOTT (R-FL): The socialism has never worked, if they’re so interested in it, why don’t they go to Caracas or why don’t they go some place where they’ve tried it?

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: A vote for any Democrat in 2020 and a vote for any Democrat tomorrow in North Carolina is a vote for the rise of radical socialism and the destruction of the American dream.

MATTHEW: Trump got 46 percent of the vote back in 2016. And it's not just that he lost the popular vote. He was below 50 percent in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, he's below 50. So the question is not so much how do you appeal to like swing voters who are ‘Do I like Trump? Do I not like Trump?’ But it's how do you get all of the anti Trump voters together.

SCORING <SENATOR SANDERS THIS LAND IS YOUR LAND>

MATTHEW: And I think Sanders is uniquely well positioned to bring those third party voters and to get them to vote Democratic. I think that's sort of the strongest electability argument for him.

SEAN: Never forget that Bernie Sanders recorded a folk album in the 80s.

<POST BERNIE SINGING>

SEAN: I don’t know if Matthew Yglesias has recorded any folk albums yet, but he hosts the Weeds podcast at Vox. Our colleagues here have written arguments for several of the other leading candidates in this race, including Vice-President Biden, Senator Warren, and Mayor Pete. You can find them at Vox dot com.

I’m Sean Rameswaram. This is the 499th episode of Today, Explained! This show was made for you and me.