Good Evening and welcome to The Bearcast! I’m your host Cody.

Today we had an enthusiastic start to the competition this year with over 100,000 votes cast in our opening matches. If this keeps up it will make last year's record breaking numbers look positively amateurish. The Fat Bear League is quickly becoming a major event, escaping its very niche bubble and just becoming regular old niche.

So what did the matches look like today? First let’s look at the battle of the rookies: 335 and 164. I know I said this one would be close, but I think the poor pose 335 gave for their before picture ended up sealing their fate. They didn’t put out a bad showing, but between 164 capturing the imagination of the audience as well as putting on a textbook display of position and posing for the rangers, he was able to really accentuate his gains and look bigger overall, sealing both voter types. In what can only be called a bloodbath, 164 held, from the start, just about 80% of the vote. This is an astonishing debut round for the mystery bear. With 164 moving on to the quarter finals, he will have to answer to 335’s mama as he faces 435 Holly. Will the old queen put this newcomer in his place, we’ll just have to wait and see in two more days!

The second match, a battle of titans went about as expected. Although I believe that 856 had superior gains and an absolutely immaculate final pose—his best showing in his entire career— his bad luck just doesn’t seem to end. Few can stand paw to paw with the bearish behemoth boy that is 747. Between his reputation, an enthusiastic fanbase, and just overall mass, he collected votes like moths to a flame. He held 68% of the vote, which, feather in my cap, is what I called. I feel for 856 and I really hope he can be given a favorable draw some time. To come back year after year only to be taken in the first round has to be demoralizing. Luckily he isn’t just fat and muscle, there’s at least 300 pounds of determination in that bearthlete and I applaud his continued contributions to Fat Bear League. 747 goes on to meet old rival 032 Chunk on Friday. More on that tomorrow.

With these matches decided we go to the other side of the bracket and get some very exciting matchups.

First on the card is a matchup between 854 Divot, her first competition since a disappointing effort in 2019, and the king of packing junk in the trunk, 151 Walker. A named bear showdown in the first round is always exciting. For those that may not know, Katmai, by order of NPS, has stopped giving bears names and only use randomly generated numbers now. So you know a named bear is not new to this game and has been through the ringer. These grizzled vets throw down in a highly anticipated matchup. Divot left nothing up to chance. She dominated the falls in the early hours before other bears crowded in and put in the work to use as little energy as possible to layer on the lipids. She felt ready to face anyone putting weight on in a wonderfully aesthetically pleasing manner just getting bigger in every measure: paws, legs, belly, rear, chest, neck and face. If you ever wanted a lesson in classic pound packing, Divot is putting on a clinic!

Opposing that is 151 Walker. He is a regular at getting out of the first round and is committed to a very specific style. Few bears commit to bringing the big badonkadonk like he does. Walker started out the season pretty well cut down to size with plenty of room to grow. It does my delta voting heart proud. Over the season he did what he does best and got big and round, concentrating on packing it on the thighs and rear. No others at the falls are quite as plump a pear bear as he. Aiding him is also years of perfecting what is his signature pose, over the shoulder looking back, butt to the photographer. At this point I feel like the pose should be called The Walker and will be committed to making it a thing in the future.

Looking at the reports and some insight from other analysts I think Divot will bring a good showing, but much like 747 has some points for hype, Walker has similar momentum and an absolute wrecking ball to toss around. I’ll project a 62-38 spread with Walker grabbing the next round to face 128 Grazer.

On the second card we have newcomer 901 facing off against the junior wild card 909 Jr.

901 is set to make a stellar debut. She gorged even more than many thought was usual for a bear her size, but soon scouting reports came back and there are murmurs that she isn’t just eating for herself. She may have courted in the off season and be packing on the weight to take care of a litter of cubs come the off season. Only her return to the river next year will show. For this year she is taking every advantage she can at least. 901 managed to be photographed in a very flattering position sucking in her gut and dripping wet to look even smaller at the start of the season. In contrast at the end of the season she is standing perfectly compact pushing up her shoulders and sitting at ¾ angle to the camera helping her have a more rotund silhouette. It is a great first attempt and would be a great competition against any bear.

Opposite her is 909 Jr the champion of Fat Bear Junior and a rookie with a lot of eyes on them. Fishing on their own and packing on the weight this little prodigious talent has an incredible matchup ahead of them. Will they be able to replicate 132 Jr’s achievement last year of making it past a round? I am happy to see that they were slotted in an opening match and not put into a seeded position. This feels much more fair to the competition over all. Unfortunately that has put them against 901. Maybe they’d have better odds against 335 or 164, but against the boulderbear 901 I don’t have high hopes. At least that’s what I would say if this wasn’t a cub. Cubs laugh in the face of statistics and logic. Their cuteness can pull votes that reasoned voters would normally never give them. They are also the ultimate underdog so that is attractive to other contingents of voters.

So looking at the pictures and some preliminary reports I’d say 901 has it 75-25, but that cub factor is hard to account for. I’ve been terribly wrong in the past before with the juniors so let me dial it back and say we’ll see a 55-45 with 901 still taking it to go fight the legendary bear 480, current champion and winningest bear: King Otis.

Be sure to vote tomorrow between noon and 9PM at explore.org/fat-bear-week. Again that is explore.org/fat-bear-week. Then be sure to come back after voting closes to find out what all went down and a preview of the next matches. Also follow us on Twitter @TheFatBearPod for not only updates from us, but also retweets of the wonderful katmai account. This has been Cody, and I look forward to you joining us next time on The Bearcast!