Computational Social Complexity
Thematic Track at 2023 (webpage)
These notes can be found here:
https://tinyurl.com/CSCx2023notes
Humans live in complex societies based on extensive cooperation, connected through social and asocial relationships. These interactions generate numerous emergent patterns. As a theoretical tool, social complexity theory provides a platform for hypothesis testing regarding the emergence of macro- and meso-level social phenomena. The track aims are to stimulate interdisciplinary research to develop complex systems-based approaches aimed at understanding social systems. We will focus on the following questions: What are the patterns in social systems that existing theories and data cannot explain? What kinds of observational and empirical data are needed to better inform the models? What new modeling techniques and methods need to be developed?
Broad topics in social complexity for which we welcome papers:
1. Modeling for sustainable development goals (e.g., poverty, well-being, food security, water, energy) in rapidly growing urban complex societies, focusing on the role of modeling in policy and urban planning.
2. Emergent phenomena of complex social systems: cooperation, self-organization, regime shifts, tipping points, and resilience.
3. Social Digital Twins and The Social Complexity of Digital Data (complex realism in social research, new metatheory), including novel (curated) datasets and empirical calibration and validation of computational models for understanding complex social systems.
4. New modeling techniques in computational social science.
Authors: Marcel Geller, Flávio L. Pinheiro and Vítor V. Vasconcelos
Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the topic evolution and speech toxicity on Twitter. We construct a dynamic topic evolution model based on a corpus of collected tweets. A combination of traditional static Topic Modelling approaches and sBERT sentences Embeddings are leveraged to build a Topic Evolution Model that is then represented as a directed Graph. Furthermore, we propose a hashtag-based method to validate the consistency of a Topic Evolution Model and provide guidance for the hyperparameter selection. We identify five evolutionary steps -- Topic Stagnation, Topic Merge, Topic Split, Topic Disappearance, and Topic Emergence. Utilizing a speech toxicity classification model, we analyze the dynamics of toxicity in the Evolution of Topics. In particular, we compare the aforementioned Topic Transition Types in terms of their toxicity. Our results indicate a positive correlation between the Popularity of a Topic and its Toxicity. The different transition types do not show any statistically significant difference in the presence of inflammatory speech.
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Authors: Louis Weyland, Ana Isabel Barros and Koen van der Zwet
Abstract: Recently, efforts have been made in computational criminology to study the dynamics of criminal organisations and improve law enforcement measures. To understand the evolution of a criminal network, current literature uses social network analysis and agent-based modelling as research tools. However, these studies only explain the short-term adaptation of a criminal network with a simplified mechanism for introducing new actors. Moreover, most studies do not consider the spatial factor, i.e. the underlying social network of a criminal network and the social environment in which it is active. This paper presents a computational modelling approach to address this literature gap by combining an agent-based model with an explicit social network to simulate the long-term evolution of a criminal organisation. To analyse the dynamics of a criminal organisation in a population, different social networks were modelled. A comparison of the evolution between the different networks was carried out, including a topological analysis (secrecy, flow of information and size of largest component). This paper demonstrates that the underlying structure of the network does make a difference in its development. In particular, with a preferentially structured population, the prevalence of criminal behaviour is very pronounced, giving the criminal organisation a certain efficiency.
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Authors: Charles Dupont and Debraj Roy
Abstract: Recent studies on anthropogenic climate change demonstrate a disproportionate effect on agriculture in the Global South and North. Questionnaires have become a common tool to capture the impact of climatic shocks on household agricultural income and consequently, on farmers’ adaptation strategies. These questionnaires are high-dimensional and contain data on several aspects of an individual (household) such as spatial and demographic characteristics, socio-economic conditions, farming practices, adaptation choices, and constraints. The extraction of insights from these high-dimensional datasets is far from trivial. Standard tools such as Principal Component Analysis, Factor Analysis, and Regression models are routinely used in such analysis. However, the above methods either rely on a pairwise correlation matrix, assume specific (conditional) probability distributions in its construction, or assume that the high-dimensional survey data lies in a linear subspace. Recent advances in manifold learning techniques have demonstrated better detection of different behavioural regimes from surveys. This paper uses Bangladesh Climate Change Adaptation Survey data to compare three non-linear manifold techniques: Fisher Information Non-Parametric Embedding (FINE), Diffusion Maps and t-SNE. Using a simulation framework, we show that FINE appears to consistently outperform the other two methods except for questionnaires with high multi-partite information. While not being limited by the need to impose a grouping scheme on data, t-SNE and Diffusion Maps require some tuning and thus more computational effort since they are sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters, unlike FINE which is non-parametric. Finally, we show that FINE is able to detect adaptation regimes and corresponding key drivers from high-dimensional data.
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Keynote: Vittorio Nespeca, University of Amsterdam & TU Delft
Abstract: Qualitative research is a powerful means to capture human interactions and behavior. Although there are different methodologies to develop models based on qualitative research, a methodology is missing that enables to strike a balance between the comparability across cases provided by methodologies that rely on a common and context-independent framework and the flexibility to study any policy problem provided by methodologies that focus on capturing a case study without relying on a common framework. In this keynote, I will present a methodology targeting this gap for ABMs in two stages. First, a novel conceptual framework centered on a particular policy problem is developed based on existing theories and qualitative insights from one or more case studies. Second, empirical or theoretical ABMs are developed based on the conceptual framework and generic models. This methodology is illustrated by an example application for disaster information management in Jakarta, resulting in an empirical descriptive agent-based model.
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Authors: Tomasz Gwizdałła and Aleksandra Piecuch
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a model enabling the creation of a social graph corresponding to real society. The procedure uses data describing the real social relations in the community, like marital status or number of kids. Results show the power-law behavior of the distribution of links and, typical for small worlds, the independence of the clustering coefficient on the size of the graph.
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Authors: Sage Anastasi and Giulio Valentino Dalla Riva
Abstract: The increasing polarisation in our society, and in particular in our Social Networks, has been the focus of much research, especially during the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic. Polarisation is widely believed to be a risk for our democracies. Understanding and detecting its temporal evolution is, therefore, highly important.
Current approaches to define and detect polarisation largely rely on finding evidence of bimodality in a (possibly latent) ideological distribution, often inferred through collective behaviours on Social Networks. Bimodality-based definition makes it hard to detect temporal trends in polarization, as the relevant tests deliver results that fall into a binary of polarised or non-polarised. Building on post-structuralist understanding of polarisation processes, we propose here an alternative definition and estimate technique for polarisation: it is a decrease in the dimensionality of the latent space underpinning a communication network. This allows us to have a more nuanced definition of polarisation, apt to detect its increase or decrease beyond a binary detection test.
In particular, we exploit the statistical theory of Random Dot Product Graphs to embed networks in metric spaces. A decrease in the optimal dimensionality for the embedding of the network graph, as measured using truncated singular value decomposition of the graph adjacency matrix, is indicative of increasing polarisation in the network. We apply our framework to the communication interactions among New Zealand Twitter users discussing about climate change, from 2017. In line with our expectations, we find that the discussion is becoming more polarised over time, as shown by a loss in the dimensionality of the communication network and corroborated by a decrease of the Von Neumann complexity of the network. Second, we apply this analysis to discussions of the COP climate change conferences, showing that our methods agree with other researchers' detections of polarisation in this space. At the end, we provide some synthetic examples to demonstrate how an increase of the isolation between distinct communities, or the increase of the predominance of a community other the others, in the communication networks are identifiable as polarisation processes.
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Authors: Rounak Meyur, Lyman Kostiantyn, Bala Krishnamoorthy and Mahantesh Halappananvar
Abstract: We study the problem of comparing a pair of geometric networks that may not be similarly defined, i.e., when they do not have one-to-one correspondences between their nodes and edges. Our motivating application is to compare power distribution networks of a region. Due to the lack of openly available power network datasets, researchers synthesize realistic networks resembling their actual counterparts. But the synthetic digital twins may vary significantly from one another and from actual networks due to varying underlying assumptions and approaches. Hence the user wants to evaluate the quality of networks in terms of their structural similarity to actual power networks. But the lack of correspondence between the networks renders most standard approaches, e.g., subgraph isomorphism and edit distance, unsuitable. % for this purpose. We propose an approach based on the multiscale flat norm, a notion of distance between objects defined in the field of geometric measure theory, to compute the distance between a pair of planar geometric networks. Using a triangulation of the domain containing the input networks, the flat norm distance between two networks at a given scale can be computed by solving a linear program. In addition, this computation automatically identifies the 2D regions (patches) that capture where the two networks are different. We demonstrate our approach on a set of actual power networks from a county in the USA. Our approach can be extended to validate synthetic networks created for multiple infrastructures such as transportation, communication, water, and gas networks.
Strengths and weaknesses of the study in relation to the relevant literature, with a particular focus on identified gaps and mismatches in results:
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Authors: Kazi Ashik Islam, Rounak Meyur, Aparna Kishore, Swapna Thorve, Da Qi Chen and Madhav Marathe
Abstract: As the demand for electric vehicles continues to surge worldwide, it becomes increasingly imperative for the government to plan and anticipate its practical impact on society. In particular, any city/state needs to guarantee sufficient and proper placement of charging stations to service all current/future electric vehicle adopters. Furthermore, it needs to consider the inevitable additional strain these charging stations put on the existing power grid. In this paper, we use data-driven models to address these issues by providing an algorithm that finds optimal placement and connections of electric vehicle charging stations in the state of Virginia. Specifically, we found it suffices to build 10,733 additional charging stations to cover 75% of the population within 0.33 miles (and everyone within 5 miles). We also show optimally connecting the stations to the power grid significantly improves the stability of the network. Additionally, we study 1) the trade-off between the average distance a driver needs to travel to their nearest charging station versus the number of stations to build, and 2) the impact on the grid under various adoption rates.These studies provide further insight into various tools policymakers can use to prepare for the evolving future.
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Twitter just shut down the chapter on academic research (Justine Calma, The Verge)
What are the boundaries of Computational Social Complexity?
What are the Challenges of Computational Social Complexity?
Recent advances in ML and Deep Learning tools have shown that complicated (linear and non-linear) are reachable and can be solved with the right combination of Computational Power and Historical Data. The next barrier are complex problems, or problems typically associated with Complexity and/or of Complex Systems. In that case, the current available tools, altough extremely powerful, are still not quite there. This track can be about exploring such boundaries of how we should study Complexity in the context of Social Systems.
Mapping Systems Complexity and Expert Input:
Hidden (multilayered) networks and data
Predictability
Interventions
Policy agenda
Other
Boundaries and Challenges of Computational Social Complexity
Non traditional. Complexity is more than puting together two fields. It needs different perspectives. Micro-interactions. Complexity is a big bag that approaches complex systems. Hyphenated. Which subset of issues are relevant. Policymaking in complex systems.
Important distinction: civil engineering using complex systems methods.
Would we define it more clearly? Social actors.
Tools to apply to understand. Deductive reasoning and reductivism.
Define the systems and define the tools. SIR is not. But SIR with policy making.
Operations research is further from this topic.
Social science with complexity methods.
Empirical collection of data. Computational social science --- it is an issue there.
Any study which give mechanistic understanding of a social process. Plus methods to analyse. Plus method to generate dynamical data.
Not a problem for complexity. We can use mixed methods. Hard to confirm, but a great to narrow down.
Model credibility. Model-based decisions. Building consensus in the formulationof policies. THen these participatory modeling techniques go in the direction. Convincing (all) people.
Hidden (Multilayered) Networks and Data
Only network science is for another track. Network topology metrics is out. Hidden structures and interactions, but not just hidden structures. Methods for modeling accessing strategic interection.
Is there and ethics involved? Can an open model be accessible for unethical things. How to anonimise a model -- abstract information so it is not misused. Example of los-alamos. Possible discussion for 2024.
Predictability and Interventions
---deep--- Important for interventions.
The process of building a model IS about understanding rather than predicting. The tolerance is . Law of parcimony.
Does it help making the decision? Is the participatory modeling more helpful? You can measure learning. Connect to field experiments because of the control.
Policy Agenda
Data Sources
Maybe data collected locally can be more useful cause they have better context. How do we make those more representative. --- We can use models. If the models considers a process that is sensitive to the network, then collect data on that network.
Future Directions
Target keynote --- even if they don’t show up
Work on the wording for discussion requisition (it was intimidating)
We should target specific people/invite them.
Start earlier
Engage more people at the UvA.
More people from ecology, and conventional social science, behavioral science (including other animals?), sociology.