Core PCE Holds at 2.9%, New-Home Sales Pop, Starts Slip — Your NYC Mortgage Playbook (Week Ending Sept 26, 2025)

By: Sydney Harewood. LRSP, NYC
Broker: LEVEL
5 West 37th Street
New York, NY 10018
www.nycexclusiveapts.com
"Your Premier Bridge to Manhattan Living."
#NYCexclAPTS
Phone: 646-535-3819
Email: sharewood@levelgroup.com

Introduction

This week’s CrossCountry Mortgage update says it all: inflation met expectations, mortgage rates ticked up slightly (still near YTD lows), existing-home sales softened, and new-home sales surprised to the upside. Below is your scan-friendly, NYC-ready read—built for investors, buyers, and renters-turn-buyers.

🔑 One-Screen Takeaways

• Inflation: Core PCE = 2.9% YoY (Aug) — exactly as forecast, steady vs. July. (AP News)
  
• Existing homes: Sales slipped slightly; median price $422,600; supply 4.6 months; DOM 31 days (vs. 26 last year). (National Association of REALTORS®)
  
• New homes: Sales +21% MoM (Aug) to 800k SAAR; +15% YoY; median $413,500—highest pace since early 2022. (Census.gov)
  
• Supply pipeline: Single-family starts −7% MoM; permits fell for a sixth straight month; builder incentives used by 65%, price cuts by 39% (post-Covid high). (Census.gov)
  
• Rates & tape: Mortgage rates +0.05 on the week; Dow +100; Nasdaq −200 (email table).
  

On page 1 of the email, a Core PCE (annual %) bar chart shows the steady 2.9% reading; page 2 lists next week’s data calendar and the weekly changes table.

📈 Inflation & the Fed (Why “in-line” still matters)

• Core PCE 2.9% YoY (Aug) and headline PCE 2.7% confirm inflation hasn’t re-accelerated, but remains above the Fed’s 2% goal. That keeps rate-cut timing data-dependent and mortgage pricing tethered to the 10-year Treasury path. (AP News)
  

NYC read-through: In-line inflation = no shock to bond markets; lenders keep pricing near recent lows, but small bumps (±5–10 bps) are normal into big data weeks.

🏠 Housing Pulse: Resales vs. New-Builds

Existing-Home Market (closings)

• Sales: down ~0.2% MoM in Aug.
  
• Price: $422,600 median.
  
• Supply: 4.6 months (still under a balanced ~6 months).
  
• DOM: 31 days (buyers taking longer to decide).
  These figures line up with NAR’s release and the email’s summary. (National Association of REALTORS®)
  

New-Home Market (contracts → leading indicator)

• Sales: 800,000 SAAR in Aug (+21% MoM, +15% YoY).
  
• Median price: $413,500 (a hair under resales).
  
• Why so strong? Builders are filling the inventory gap and dangling rate buydowns/credits. (Census.gov)
  

Tactical note: New-home sales (contracts) lead resales (closings). Today’s builder momentum can translate into NYC sponsor incentives as developers compete for payment targets.

🧱 Construction & Builder Sentiment

• Starts (Aug): Total 1.307M SAAR (−8.5% MoM); single-family 890k (−7.0% MoM). (Census.gov)
  
• Permits: Single-family authorizations −2.2% MoM; overall permits fell and have been sliding for months. (Census.gov)
  
• NAHB survey: 65% of builders offering incentives; 39% cutting prices (avg 5%). That’s the highest share of price cuts since the pandemic. (NAHB)
  

NYC angle: Expect sponsor units and select new-dev to lean harder on rate buydowns—a clean lever when appraisal and payment targets are tight.

🗽 NYC Investor/Buyer Playbook (do these 4 now)

1. Quote both lanes. If your loan can fit under the high-cost conforming cap, compare conforming-HC vs. jumbo (APR, points, cash-to-close). Even tiny moves re-rank options.
   
2. Lead with incentives. Ask explicitly for builder/sponsor buydowns or closing credits—national data shows incentives are widespread. (NAHB)
   
3. Time locks to catalysts. Next week’s ISM Manufacturing (Wed), Employment Report (Fri), and ISM Services (Fri) can nudge the 10-yr and quotes intraday. (Institute for Supply Management)
   
4. Use the new-home beat as leverage. If you’re bidding resale, reference new-home alternatives (with incentives) to negotiate repairs/credits without overpaying.
   

🖼️ Mini-Infographic — “This Week on One Page”

The email’s Weekly Changes table shows: Mortgage Rates +0.05; Dow +100; Nasdaq −200 (page 2).

📅 Week-Ahead Calendar (per email)

• Tue 9/30: JOLTS
  
• Wed 10/1: ISM Manufacturing (first business day @ 10am ET)
  
• Fri 10/3: Employment Report & ISM Services (third business day @ 10am ET)
   Expect headline risk and have a no-point and buydown quote ready. (Institute for Supply Management)
  

Helpful Outlinks

• BEA — PCE/ Core PCE (Aug): overview & tables. (AP News)
  
• Census/HUD — New Residential Sales (Aug): 800k SAAR; median $413,500. (Census.gov)
  
• NAR — Existing-Home Sales (Aug): headline and details. (National Association of REALTORS®)
  
• Census — New Residential Construction (Aug): starts/permits. (Census.gov)
  
• NAHB — HMI (Sept): incentives 65%, price cuts 39%. (NAHB)
  
• ISM Calendar: release timing for Manufacturing & Services PMI. (Institute for Supply Management)
  

Bottom Line

Inflation steady. New-home demand lively. Supply growth cooling. For New York, that’s a green light to structure first (choose the right lane), negotiate incentives second, and time your lock around next week’s data pulses. As always—eyes on the 10-year, and let’s turn basis points into buying power.

Sydney Harewood is a real estate professional with a passion for NYC’s architectural gems. For inquiries, call or message Syd at 📞646-535-3819. Experience the finest in NYC real estate with Syd’s expert guidance and deep knowledge of the city’s most exquisite properties.

We hope you found this information helpful. If you have any other questions or need more details, feel free to contact us.