The PLAYERS Championship 2022

Well lads I don’t know what to say, Ryan Brehm, his wife, and I didn’t quite expect the week we got. A place would have been ideal given the precarious circumstances Ryan had to endure to keep his card, ie; either a win or solo second. But he breezed to victory on Sunday opening up a seven-shot lead on the back nine and parring his way home for one of the biggest feel-good stories of the season thus far.

That win was our third in four weeks and our fourth successive week collecting from the bookies. I know it can’t last forever but we currently have a return on investment for the year of 180% which I’m chuffed to bits about but I know there’s going to be plenty of lean weeks ahead. I hope that doesn’t start this week as we enter the arena that is TPC Sawgrass and one of the best fields in golf. Most of the attention will go to the island green 17th but golf's ‘fifth major’ is so much more than that.

Looking through many of the world's best golfer's previous results here I’ve noticed no one consistently plays well here every year, mostly due to the vigorous demand the course imposes on its victims and victors. The penal rough, water hazards, and undulating greens will be further aided this year but windy conditions most days, getting worse on the weekend. Plenty of rainfall early in the week can be seen one of two ways, it’s either going to soften the course making it more receptive or if the rain comes heavier than expected it can make the course into a long slog for even the bigger hitters, only time will tell on that front.

But for now, I’m going to focus on the five names I feel are best suited to the challenge this week promises to be. I’ve plumped for strong iron players who are coming in here on the back of some decent showings lately, one of whom we pipped to the post at the Honda. These golfers range from 28/1 to 150/1 as I just don’t feel anyone at the head of the market is playing well enough to justify their low prices so I tried to find a small bit of value. All my bets are through mainstream bookmakers but bet365 are offering great value for 8 places this week.

Cameron Smith 2pts ew 30/1 (⅕ 11 places Boyles)

In horse racing terms Cameron has been lightly raced this year so far with only four starts since the start of 2022. Still, those four starts include a win in Hawaii, a strong top 5 in Saudi Arabia, and a decent showing at the Genesis last time out.

Currently 10th in the latest world rankings, Smith has begun to blossom into a real top player and the only thing missing from his resume is a top title. Struggled early doors here at Sawgrass with a pair of missed cuts to begin his tenure here, but his last two visits have seen him not just make the cut in 2019 (T56) but to get himself into the top 20 last year (T17). I expect further progress this year and hopefully more rounds like his impressive 65 here on the Saturday of last year's edition.

My only reservation with Cameron would be his accuracy from the tee so far this term, he will need to improve on his season average of 57% this week as finding fairways could become a premium given the winds and rain given early in the week.

Shane Lowry 2pts ew 33/1 (⅕ 8 places Ladbrokes)

Very unlucky two weeks ago when the weather turned nasty and saw an end to Shanes charge towards the Honda title. His loss was our gain with Straka but it’s never nice seeing fate be so cruel to such a loveable guy.

Still, there’s no point in looking backward, and I’m sure Shane feels the same and he’s eager to prove a point this week. Posted a personal best 8th place finish here last year, while in some iffy form, but arrives at this year's renewal in a much better vein of form. Ahead of his second-place finish at the Honda, he had four very productive weeks in the middle east so it can’t come as a surprise he’s so well fancied to produce a good finish this week.

Learning his trade in Ireland he should be no stranger to playing in the wind and rain, even if the sudden storm two weeks ago at PGA National seemed to knock the stuffing out of his final drive, I feel he’s due another chance to prove his comeback to the top of the game and add the PLAYERS to his already impressive resume.

Corey Conners 1pt ew 50/1 (⅕ 8 places Powers)

One of the most prodigious ball strikers on the PGA Tour has been largely inconsistent with his finishing thus far in the wrap-around season. But last weeks showing at the Arnold Palmer indicated his tee to green game is almost back to its best. Barring one bad swing on the 11th on Friday when he topped a 3wood into the water, his entire game was on point, and that one bad shot cost him a much sought-after top 10 this season.

Corey has been solid as ever off the tee this season ranking 5th in strokes gained off the tee and hitting almost 66% of his fairways. Combine that tee game with his improving iron play and it’s no surprise he’s perfect at Sawgrass in his two starts here with a stellar 7th place finish last year, where a closing 66 saw him cruise up the leaderboard. If Corey can keep his putter running even lukewarm this week there’s no reason as to why he can’t add a second PGA Tour title come Sunday night.

Abraham Ancer 1pt ew 55/1 (⅕ 11 places Boyles)

Might not be setting the world alight with his performances this season but just the two missed cuts in his eight starts. Similar to Conners I’ve recently noticed he’s beginning to claw his way back to his previously great form. But in contrast to Corey, Abraham is much more of a scrapper than a flusher, and that dogged mentality could be essential when trying to defend his position in the closing stages of the tournament come Sunday evening, whatever position that may be.

His previous two starts here at TPC Sawgrass have seen him finish 12th and 22nd so the course suits his eye and style to a tee. Apart from his last trip out at the Genesis his turn to playing well has been largely down to his greens in regulation percentage hovering in the low to mid-70s, that's a recipe for success in anyone's book. Looking back to the Genesis he only managed 54% of his greens but his par 5 scoring was impeccable, my hope for this week is he can combine the par 5 scoring prowess from the Genesis with the increased GIR% from the previous results. That would mark a return to the old Abe Ancer and that would result in a strong showing this week.

Keegan Bradley 1pt ew 150/1 (⅕ 8 places Powers)

A friend told me at the start of 2022 to ignore all personal affiliations to golfers as it leads to disaster. But here we are and here I am yet again recommending people to back Keegan Bradley.

An absolute beast tee to green, but since the putting ban, he just can’t seem to stay consistent with the putter. It’s just so annoying to me to see just a fine golfer continue to not get the results his iron play deserves but in recent weeks Keegan has shown signs of getting into some kind of a rhythm with the flat stick.

He’s made his last five cuts and his last three outings have seen his putting stats improve each time, culminating in being just shy of +1 stroke gained putting at the Arnold Palmer last week. He’s also perfect in the last five trips to Sawgrass, with a 7th in 2018 being a highlight and a personal best.

His ball-striking won’t be in question this week but if he can putt similar to last week, you’d never know he could be overpriced greatly by the bookies.