The present document offers a list of 15 of the most useful, backtested, and accurate indicators (based on data and historical records), to help any trader or investor in the process of identifying local crypto market bottoms, by a deep understanding of each one of them and also help establish parameters for confirmation signals and the importance of the confluence of these indicators.

It is of great importance to make emphasis in the fact that some of this indicators are metrics around BTC data alone, as it is the asset that drives broader market movements in the landscape, although some of them can be applied to other cryptocurrencies as well, especially the Technical Analysis ones, and some on-chain indicators too. But for a comprehensive analysis and understanding of these tools we should be aware of the importance of BTC in market dynamics.

For the sake of easy correlation between a large amount of data, I will divide the indicator list in 4 main categories, and in order to give to the reader a comprehensive understanding and a friendly methodology to apply these data analysis in their own strategies I will try to respond to these 3 main questions with every one of the indicators:

What they are?
Why can they predict the local bottom? (what's the logic behind it)
Examples of predicting local bottoms in the past

Key Insights

Interest Rates, representing the cost of borrowing/obtaining money, directly influences the M2 Money Supply indicator, which also ties directly to inflation as more money floods the market, inflation rises. Those are the Fed’s juggling balls, driving broader crypto tides.
M2 Money Supply indicator is technically lagged influencing different markets at different paces, for BTC, it is still tracking global M2 with a ~70 day lag.
Monthly Correlation Coefficient between BTC / DXY (which historically have been negative, they move in reverse), keeps positive (they are moving in the same way) from a few months now, nearing an historic level of reversal back to negative, meaning weakness in the Dollar translates into High risk appetite, again.
BTC ETF inflows, a recently developed indicator, turns back to positive in late march 2025, with the largest ETF inflow since Feb 4, suggesting institutional interest.
MVRV Z-Score currently sitting at ~1.6, far away from >7 levels which historically marked cycle tops, suggests there still could be room for a final leg up in this cycle.
Puell Multiple Showing a Bearish Divergence may indicate that we already got the last cycle pump from ~$65k to ~$100k, and we are entering a bear market.
Currently, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is again nearing levels that previously signaled the end of selling pressure and subsequent price recovery.
Open interest increasing = traders are opening new positions.

Open interest decreasing = traders are closing positions. Think about Open Interest as a measure of directional positions in the market.

A simple 1- and 2-month simple moving average of Bitcoin’s Hash Rate can be used to identify market bottoms, miner capitulation and great times to buy Bitcoin.
At February '25, stablecoins have reached $214B in supply, facilitating an astounding $35T annual transfer volume, doubling Visa's annual throughput. Active addresses jumped 53%, reaching 30M.
RSI and Bollinger Bands, have been back tested based on 100 years of Dow Jones Data, proving to be the most reliable TA indicators, with win rates above 70%.
Weekly BTC MACD in same position above the zero line that coincided with lowest price last time
During this bull market, the Weekly lower Bollinger Band has only been tested four times. So far, each time coincided with a local-bottom before the next rally.
50-period EMA reflects intermediate market trends, pairing it with the 20-period MA for swing trading and with the 200-period MA for long-term trend confirmation.
BTC pumping, with volume making divergence with price, suggest it is still weak and ready to fall down.
Whales accumulated more than 65,000 $BTC in the last 30 days.
Fear & Greed index in the Neutral zone while Sentiment is recovering, still far from the euphoria phase.
To use this framework effectively, merge these signals into a confluence-driven playbook: Start broad with macro context, zoom into on-chain and TA for timing, and use sentiment to gauge the crowd’s pulse.

Background Introduction

Can we all agree by now that the crypto market is a wild ride? Think of it like a rollercoaster meets a rocket ship. Prices can soar to the moon or crash to earth in a flash, we’ve seen it several times before, leaving traders and investors scrambling to spot the bottom of a dip. Fortunately, identifying these local market bottoms isn’t just about gut feelings; it’s about arming yourself with the right tools to catch the rebound before it takes off. After all, in crypto, timing is everything, and maybe snag some sweet gains along the way.

This research dives into the most accurate and battle-tested indicators for pinpointing those elusive crypto bottoms. We’ve sifted through the noise, backtested the data, and sorted the winners into four buckets: Macro (big-picture economic vibes), On-Chain (blockchain’s hidden signals), TA/Charts (price patterns and techy tricks), and Others (quirky wildcards that still pack a punch). Let’s break it down.

Macro Indicators

Macro signals are the whale-sized clues telling us if it’s time to load our crypto bags or brace for the dump. We can picture this: the honorable suits at the Fed are tweaking Interest Rates & Monetary Policy, flipping the script from "money printer go brrr" to "rates up, risk off." When they hike, borrowing turns pricey, and BTC and alts can get rekt, but when they cut, it’s liquidity season, meaning prime dip-buying periods. Meanwhile, the DXY is over there flexing the dollar’s energy; if it pumps, fiat is king, and our coins bleed, but when it tanks, weak hands fold, and crypto starts looking like a real play. Then there’s the M2, the global cash pile metric. When it’s juicy, there’s fuel for the bull run, but if it dries up, we’re scraping bear cave floors. Together, these three call the shots on whether we’re mooning or glooming, but in larger timeframes and sometimes lagging.

Interest Rates & Monetary policy

“Interest rates generally refer to the cost of borrowing money, which can be affected by a central bank’s actions. In the United States, the Federal Reserve sets a benchmark rate called the federal funds rate. When this rate is low, borrowing becomes cheaper, which effectively means that the price of money comes down. With a low price of money, more people will “buy” it (by borrowing it and going into debt) in order to invest it and seek a return that is higher than the interest rate. This expands the money supply, which can cause inflation. Conversely, high rates make money more expensive, discouraging borrowing but helping to curtail inflation. The Fed adjusts rates according to what it believes will achieve its dual mandate of keeping inflation at about 2% per year, and maximizing employment.

When interest rates drop, credit tends to expand and asset prices rise. Businesses grow, consumers spend and investors often chase higher yields in riskier assets. This surge in liquidity can also raise the prices of cryptocurrencies. By contrast, higher rates cool the economy, reducing the cash available for risk taking. In this environment, investors may shift capital into safer, interest-bearing vehicles like bonds.” (Birnbaum, D. Forbes, March 2025)

OK so, Interest rates are related to whether money is “expensive” or “cheap” to borrow/obtain, depending on rates hikes or cuts, directly influencing the liquidity aspect of the markets, meaning this indicator has a direct correlation with the M2 Supply (which I will cover later in the document) but here’s the tricky part, because by definition the increasing of M2 supply is tied to the inflation. The straightforward logic behind it would be: The lower the rates, the more investors will access money through borrowing, and easily buy Crypto, hence an upward Market Movement is expected.

Here we can see a great example of how to accurately interpret this data regarding Interest Rates decisions, which also involves M2 money supply, and its impact in the short-mid term.

“people will hate this, but:

crypto is massively correlated to global liquidity/rate cuts.

liq/money supply in a downtrend during btc's pump

our pump from 60k->100k = dereg euphoria sustained by saylor

several months behind 2021 int rate conditions

nonzero chance: cool off til Q2+” (@Cryptoklotz, 2024, Dec 14)

(Image from @Cryptoklotz, 2024)

Meaning that, while BTC pumps and the liq/Money supply are in a downtrend, its possibly not a sustained uptrend, hence must be for other circumstances, like the deregulatory euphoria we’ve seen in early 2025 sustained by the influence of Michael Saylor on the market, pointing out lagged rate conditions behind 2021, projecting a cool off until Q2, (which is what we’ve being experiencing this days, after the “buy the rumors sell the news” event of the presidential inauguration ceremony).

Here we can see another historical example of how impactful the interest rates announcements have been influencing investors behavior.

“Bitcoin increasingly correlates to global macro factors. After the Fed announced that they shouldn't raise interest rates until 2023, both store-of-value/risk-on assets rose.

The short term correlation between gold and Bitcoin made institutional investors pay attention.” (@MessariCrypto, 2021, May, 27)

(Image from @Messaricrypto, 2021)

M2 Money Supply (lagged)

M2 Money Supply measures the cash, checking accounts, and savings floating around the economy. Basically, the fiat pool that keeps things moving. Variants like Real M2 Growth (adjusted for inflation) or M2-to-GDP Ratio (cash compared to economic size) give a clearer view of how much liquidity is out there. It’s closely tied to interest rate moves from the Fed as we saw earlier: lower rates tend to grow M2 as money gets easier to borrow, while higher rates can shrink it. For crypto, this matters when hunting local market bottoms. A rising M2 often signals more cash flowing into riskier assets like BTC and alts, hinting at a bounce from the lows.

(Image from FRED, 2025)

M2 Money Supply data itself is technically lagged because it’s reported with a delay. The Federal Reserve releases M2 figures monthly, often with a lag of a few weeks (February’s data might drop in mid-March). So, when you’re looking at M2 numbers, you’re seeing a snapshot of what was happening, not what’s happening in real-time. But the real question is its impact lag; how long it takes for changes in M2 to hit crypto prices and signal local bottoms.

The effect of M2 on crypto isn’t instant, it’s more like a slow burn than a flash pump. When M2 grows, it takes time for that liquidity to trickle into risk assets like BTC and alts. Economists often peg this lag at 6–18 months for traditional markets, and crypto, being hyper-reactive, might feel it faster, think 3–12 months, depending on sentiment and adoption vibes. Why? Cash has to flow from banks to investors to exchanges before degens start stacking sats. Conversely, when M2 shrinks (rate hikes tighten the faucet), the dip might lag too, as traders don’t panic-sell overnight, let’s see some examples:

“Bitcoin has tracked global M2 with a ~70-day lag since September 2023.

I don't want to alarm anyone, but if it continues, bitcoin could be in for a 20-25% correction.

Global M2 in ⚪️

Bitcoin in 🟠” (@JoeConsorti, 2024, Nov 25)

(Image from @JoeConsorti, 2024)

“Bitcoin is still tracking global M2 with a ~70-day lag.

Two scenarios: dislocate from global M2 thanks to BTC-native buy side, or continue following it into a deep mid-cycle correction.

Grab your popcorn 🍿” (@JoeConsorti, 2024, Dec 18)

(image from @JoeConsorti, 2024)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2hOEwVlaHM

In the above chart it becomes clear that indeed bitcoin seems to be following global liquidity with a ~75 day lag, which means a rise in global liquidity could be a useful signal if after the lag period a reversal can be observed.

“Stocks & crypto crashing. Timeline in shambles. Fear left and right. And to top it off, the U.S. economy is legitimately overdue for a recession.

There’s a ton of indicators that point both directions (bearish and bullish). It can be kind of confusing what to make of it!

I am personally hinging my hopes on the Global M2 Money Supply for the next couple of months, as it shows a strong uptrend.

Furthermore, Global M2 just put in a new local high, continuing its uptrend further.

Will this be right in hindsight? I can’t tell you. Global M2 has about an 82% correlation to BTC’s moves (see chart #2). I guess I’m taking those odds. I’m not telling you to. It could fail. There’s no *guarantee* prices will head up. There’s always that 20% chance they don’t. Know this, going into it. ALL analysts and all traders get calls wrong. It’s part of the game.

Let’s hope this Global Money Supply is showing us what’s to come. We should know in a few weeks.

I’ll continue monitoring this closely and sharing its developments.” (@CollinTCrypto, 2025, March 10)

(image from @CollinTCrypto, 2025)

So, should you look at M2 with a lagging perspective? Kinda, but not just that. It’s a rearview mirror and a heads-up. Historical M2 trends can hint at past bottoms , M2 spiked in 2020 post-COVID stimulus as Spencer Schiff timely pointed out, and BTC bottomed around $5K in March before mooning to $10K+ by summer.

It is clear that this is a strong indicator but we must deal with it carefully because as we can see in the next X post, sometimes M2 is misinterpreted, and should be analyzed with caution.

“While M2 is indeed increasing.. it is important to be aware of where that liquidity really is

It's not in 🟣Liquid Consumer Deposits (f.k.a "Checking and Savings") - which are down an unexpected $168B from last year

It's not in 🟠Small CD's - which are down $58B from last year

The growth in M2 is coming primarily from increases in 🟡Demand Deposits (M1) and🔵Retail MMF's (M2)

Not sure about you, but I have checking and savings accounts - not demand deposits🤷‍♂️” (@Monetaryguy589, 2025, March 15)

(image from @Monetaryguy589, 2025)

So for predicting future local bottoms, you’d pair it with real-time signals (like rate announcements or DXY moves, the next one in the list) since M2 data alone trails the action. Degens often watch Fed speeches or FOMC meetings for the “money printer” trigger, then check M2 later to confirm the trend.

DXY (Dollar Strength)

The DXY, or Dollar Strength Index, measures the U.S. dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies like the Euro and Yen. In the crypto space, it’s a helpful indicator for gauging local bottoms. The theory is that when the DXY climbs, signaling a stronger dollar, risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins often take a hit, think of it as the market’s "fear gauge" kicking in. This can create prime buying opportunities during dips. On the flip side, if the DXY peaks or starts to drop, a weaker dollar might free up room for a crypto rebound. Savvy traders don’t ride DXY alone, though; they pair it with stuff like RSI for momentum checks, moving averages for trend vibes, or even funding rates on perp markets to confirm signals.

“What is Dollar Index and why it's important ?

Dollar Index (often referred as to DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of 6 Foreign Currencies

🔰Foreign Currency Weightages against the measure

Euro - 57%

Japanese Yen - 13.6%

Canadian Dollar - 9.1%

British Pound - 11.9%

Swedish Krona - 4.2%

Swiss Franc - 3.6%

⏳Created - 1973

Base Value - 100

Let me explain in simple words - If Dollar Index is 107, USD is expensive by 7%, which hurts emerging economies mostly. an expensive USD puts pressure on their financial markets.

If Dollar Index is at 90, its cheaper by 10% than its fair value, which will again hurt the emerging economy as majority exports goes to US.

📚Historic Value

It reached an all-time high in 1984 at nearly 165, and an all-time low of around 70 in 2007. In the years since then, the U.S. dollar index has been relatively range bound, fluctuating between 90 and 110. As of tonight, its trading at 107.9, showing some signs of topping off.” (@StockPrecision, 2025, Jan 29)

What about the historic correlation with BTC price action?

“The move in the DXY this week was absolutely massive.

This kind of decline has only happened three other times in the last twelve years. And when we look at what it meant for Bitcoin going forward, it's pretty eye-opening...

Back in August 2015, when we saw that -4 standard deviation event, Bitcoin went on to do an 87x move into the cycle peak by December 2017.

Then in March 2020, we saw Bitcoin go on to 10x into the peak in November 2021.

And finally, in November 2022, when this signal triggered again, Bitcoin is already up 5x, or 500%.

Here are the two key takeaways:

1) Financial conditions lead risk assets by a couple of months.

2) Right now, financial conditions are easing – and fast…” (@BittelJulien, 2025, March 7)

(image from @BittelJulien, 2025)

But as we’ve stated before, none of these indicators are 100% accurate, and sometimes it shows us “wrong” data, these misinterpretations leave “Many traders Fall into the trap of illusory correlation, seeing patterns where none exist. For example, the common belief is that BTC and DXY are always negatively correlated. Yet, for quite a while now, the’ve move together.” as accurately @Your_NLP_Coach satated in his thread.

(image from @Your_NLP_Coach, 2025, March 21)

We can also confirm this thanks to this post from Tony “The Bull” Severino (@tonythebullBTC) where he basically explains that the Monthly correlation coefficient is currently at a rising positive, meaning they are moving in the same way for a while now, but they are nearing to a level associated with reversals to a negative correlation, by this we can assume that in the near future we are expecting a negative correlation between BTC/DXY again, or in simple terms a weakness in the dollar translated into high risk assets appetite.

(image from @TonythebullBTC, 2025)

Now that we have gone deeper into the big names of Macro, M2, DXY and interest rates with all that monetary policy jazz, we can see why these are somehow shaping the crypto landscape.

But here’s the catch: They are most likely just noise that confuses the inexperienced investor, as Gerhard-Bitcoin Strategy accurately explains through his video. Mathematically, those correlations (between macro indicators and crypto prices) do not sustain, (just the clear correlation between tech stocks and BTC price). DXY correlation coefficient keeps positive from a while now, they are moving the same way, M2 monetary supply keeps tightening while BTC price soar, suggesting the Fed’s balance sheet is not the main driver, also the interest rates allowed a BTC rally even with monetary tightening, (higher interest rates).

It is also important to remember that BTC was launched at the very bottom of a global financial crisis, with no major corrections in traditional finance since then, and since there’s now more correlation between BTC and Tech Stocks, an eventual global correction of the markets will lead BTC prices to lower prices than we ever would expect.

ETF Inflows

In addition to established macro indicators like the DXY, M2 money supply, and interest rates, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflows, have emerged as a significant metric reflecting institutional behavior and its influence on the market. ETF inflows track the volume of capital entering Bitcoin-focused funds, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust or spot ETFs launched in recent years (like the BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, approved in 2024), offering a window into institutional buying patterns. Data from sources like Bloomberg and Glassnode, show that sustained ETF inflows often correlate with price stabilization or uptrends, as institutional accumulation can absorb selling pressure during downturns, potentially signaling local market bottoms.

“LARGEST Bitcoin ETF inflow since February 4 🚨(@CoinCompassHQ, 2025, March 18)

(image from @CoinCompassHQ, 2025)

“Bitcoin ETF $165,700,000 inflow yesterday.

Blackrock is buying a lot of $BTC.” (@TedPillows, 2025, March 21)

(Image from @TedPillows, 2025)

This indicator’s relevance has grown with the increasing mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, particularly following regulatory approvals that expanded institutional access. While ETF inflows alone lack the immediacy of on-chain metrics, their confluence with macro factors (such as a weakening DXY or easing monetary policy) enhances their predictive power, as this metric evolves, complementing the broader macro framework.

On-Chain Indicators

Let’s dive into the wild world of On-chain indicators, which provide a powerful lens into Crypto’s market dynamics. We’re talking about the MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Reset of Open Interest, and Hash Ribbons, these bad boys, tells us what’s happening in Crypto in real-time. MVRV Z-Score compares market value to realized value, flagging when BTC is dirt cheap or overpriced. The Puell Multiple assesses miner revenue, screaming “oversold” when they’re hurting and their profitability drops. SOPR tracks whether holders are selling at a profit or loss, often highlighting capitulation zones. Reset of Open Interest tracks when the futures market’s leverage gets a hard flush, while Hash Ribbons analyzes miner hash rate trends to mark recovery after downturns. Among these, SOPR stands out for its accuracy in pinpointing local bottoms, as it effectively captures widespread loss-taking during panic sell-offs, though the MVRV Z-Score is a strong contender for identifying undervalued conditions.

These indicators exhibit notable correlation, both with each other and with macro signals too. For instance, When SOPR tanks, you’ll often see MVRV dip and Puell flash red, hinting stress across holders and miners. A Reset of Open Interest frequently coincides with these extremes, That’s the leverage purge lining up with on-chain pain, Hash Ribbons tends to lag a bit but confirms the bottom when miners flip the switch back on. When paired with macroeconomic factors, then the correlation gets more weight, with macro trends explaining underlying pressures and on-chain data refining the timing. While SOPR often leads for precision, their combined strength enhances reliability, making them indispensable tools.

MVRV Z-Score

“The MVRV Z-Score, or Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score, is a statistic used to signal whether the cryptocurrency market is overheated or undervalued. It compares two critical metrics:

Market Value (MV): This is Bitcoin’s price (crypto asset price) multiplied by the circulating supply, effectively its market cap.

Realized Value (RV): This represents the total value of Bitcoin (total value of a crypto assets) based on the price it was last moved. It provides insight into the “true” cost basis of the market.

The Z-Score normalizes these values, allowing us to see extremes in market sentiment:” (Morpher.com, 2024)

(image from Morpher, 2024)

(image from @Thomash83191 2025, March 16)

Market Value is the current price times circulating supply, while Realized Value reflects the price each coin was last sold at. The Z-Score adjusts the MVRV ratio (Market Value / Realized Value) by dividing the difference by the standard deviation of Market Value, smoothing out volatility.

“🧠Educate on the 3 metrics used:

1. Market Value (black line):

The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.

2. Realised Value (blue line):

Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realised Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.

In doing so, it strips out the short term market sentiment that we have within the Market Value metric. It can therefore be seen as a more 'true' long term measure of Bitcoin value which Market Value moves above and below depending on the market sentiment at the time.

3. Z-score (orange line):

A standard deviation test that pulls out the extremes in the data between market value and realised value.” (@Thomash83191, 2025, March 16)

(image from Morpher, 2024)

At first sight it looks quite useful, but how accurate is it really? Have this indicator ever accurately spotted tops or bottoms?

“The Z-Score’s ability to identify extremes in sentiment is its greatest strength. Let’s break it down with past examples:

Spotting Market Peaks:

During 2017, as Bitcoin soared to nearly $20,000, the Z-Score exceeded 8, signaling a bubble. Investors who acted on this warning avoided the subsequent crash. A similar pattern occurred in 2021 when Bitcoin hit $69,000.

Finding Market Bottoms:

In 2019, Bitcoin’s price fell to $3,000, and the Z-Score dropped below 0, indicating undervaluation. Investors who bought during this period positioned themselves for significant gains. The same signal appeared in 2022 when Bitcoin bottomed at $15,000.” (Morpher.com, 2024)

And how can someone maximize the benefits of the MVRV Z-Score, by incorporating it into a strategy?

“Look for Extremes: Monitor the Z-Score for signals above 7 or below 0, as these often mark critical turning points.

Pair With Other Tools: Combine the Z-Score with other indicators, such as RSI or moving averages, to validate trends.

Focus on Long-Term Trends: The Z-Score is ideal for understanding market cycles rather than short-term fluctuations.

(image from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, 2025)

MVRV Z-Score currently sitting at ~1.6, far away from >7 levels which historically marked cycle tops, suggests that at these levels there still could be room for a final leg up in this cycle.

Puell Multiuple

“This metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - bitcoin miners and their revenue. It explores market cycles from a mining revenue perspective.

Bitcoin miners are sometimes referred to as compulsory sellers due to their need to cover fixed costs of mining hardware in a market where price is extremely volatile.

The revenue they generate can therefore influence price over time.

The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.

How It Can Be Used

There are periods of time where the value of bitcoins being mined and entering the ecosystem is too great or too little relative to historical norms. Understanding these periods of time can be beneficial to the strategic Bitcoin investor.

The chart above highlights periods where the value of Bitcoin's issued on a daily basis has historically been extremely low (Puell Multiple entering green box), which produced outsized returns for Bitcoin investors who bought Bitcoin here.

It also shows periods where the daily issuance value was extremely high (Puell Multiple entering red box), providing advantageous profit-taking for Bitcoin investors who sold here.” (@Bilo888,2025, Feb 12)

(image from @Bilo888, 2025)

“We can see that the red zone for the Puell multiple is also far away and so according to this metric, BTC still has a ways to go. 2021 was an odd year as the red zone wasn't hit but the Puell Multiple today is almost half of that in 2021” (@Bilo888,2025, Feb 12)

“Historically, when the Puell Multiple dips below 0.5, it signals miner pain = undervalued $BTC.

✅ 2012: $BTC at ~$2

✅ 2015: $BTC at ~$200

✅ 2018: $BTC at ~$3k

✅ 2022: $BTC at ~$20k

Selling Tops 🔴

When it spikes above 4.0, miners are rolling in profits = overheated market.

🚨 2013: $BTC at ~$1k

🚨 2017: $BTC at ~$20k

🚨 2021: $BTC at ~$65k

The Puell Multiple is your signal in the noise:

🟢 <0.5 = Strong buy.

🔴 >4.0 = Time to take profits.

We have a while to go yet in this cycle before things become frothy.

Zoom out. Stay rational. Follow the data.” (@Asymmetry_Fi, 2024, Dec 12)

“Back in October 2024 I was very confident in a new #BTC ATH but not now.

According to the #BTC Puell Multiple indicator we had one last leg up on Price and as you can see we got it - $BTC went from $60k to $110k 📈

But the problem is we didn’t get a Higher High on the indicator 🤔

So now we have a Higher High on Price and a Lower High on Puell Multiple - that’s a BEARISH Divergence❗️

We had this Bearish Divergence only 2 times - Cycle Top in 2013 & Cycle Top in 2021

This is something to think about if you’re a $BTC bull” (@CryptoBullet1, 2025, March 24)

(image from @CryptoBullet1, 2025

Wrapping it up, the Puell Multiple is a go-to miner whisperer, by sizing up miner revenue against its yearly average, it flashes red when the hash people’s cash drops, hinting at oversold territory where BTC is ripe for a bounce. We can think of it as the canary in the coal mine: when miners are hurting, capitulation is near, and that is a preferred time to buy the dip. And if we pair it with heavy hitters like the MVRV Z-score screaming undervaluation or SOPR showing panic sells, then we got a neon sign saying “time to load the bags”.

Best Aggregate Signal

https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/

colintalkscrypto.com has created an aggregate chart that lets you easily merge Puell, MVRV Z-score, and many other indicators.

My preferred layout is RUPL/NUPL + RHODL Ratio + Puell Multiple + MVRV Z-score

RUPL/NUPL

RUPL/NUPL “is derived from Market Value and Realized Value, which can be defined as:

Market Value: The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.

Realized Value: Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realized Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.

By subtracting Realized Value from Market Value we calculate Unrealized Profit/Loss.

Unrealized Profit/Loss estimates the total paper profits/losses in Bitcoin held by investors. This is interesting to know but of greater value is identifying how this changes relatively over time.

To do this we can divide Unrealized Profit/Loss by Market Cap. This creates Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, sometimes referred to as NUPL, which is very useful to track investor sentiment over time for Bitcoin.

Relative Unrealised Profit/Loss is another name used for this analysis.”

RHODL Ratio
RHODL Ratio is a ratio of the Realized Value HODL Waves. “In summary, Realized Value HODL waves are different age bands of UTXO’s (coins) weighted by the Realized Value of coins within each band.

The Realized Value is the price of UTXO’s (coins) when they were last moved from one wallet to another.

RHODL Ratio looks at the ratio between RHODL band of 1 week versus the RHODL band of 1-2yrs.

It also calibrates for increased hodl’ing over time and for lost coins by multiplying the ratio by the age of the market in number of days.

When the 1 week value is significantly higher than the 1-2yr it is a signal that the market is becoming overheated.”

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, is like a little crypto crystal ball that shows whether Bitcoin holders are cashing out in the green or the red. It looks at the price each coin was last moved at (its "realized" value) and compares it to the price when it’s sold. If SOPR is above 1, people are selling at a profit, meaning vibes are high! If it’s below 1, they’re taking a loss, which often means the market’s in a dip and folks are panicking. It’s a friendly heads-up on sentiment: dipping below 1 and bouncing back can signal a local bottom.

“Ouch!

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) just declined to the lowest level since August 2024.

In other words, retail traders paper handed bitcoin the most since the great Yen carry trade unwind in the summer of 2024…” (@Andre_Dragosch, 2025, Feb 26)

(image from @Andre_Dragosch, 2025)

“Historically, low levels in Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicated market bottoms, marking attractive buy opportunities.

Currently, SOPR is again nearing levels that previously signaled the end of selling pressure and subsequent price recovery.” (Woo_Minkyu, 2025, March 9)

(image from @Woo_Minkyu, 2025)

“Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is useful because it provides a snapshot of actual market participant behavior at a given moment in time. It can therefore act as a useful market sentiment tool. If there are significant losses being realized (i.e. SOPR is negative) and those losses are increasing across several days, then that tells us that market participants are fearful and expect the price of Bitcoin to drop further.

In Bitcoin bull markets, such periods can be opportunistic times to buy for the astute investor.”(Decentrader, retrieved March 21, 2025)

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), captures moments when Bitcoin holders sell at a loss, often signaling capitulation. Its accuracy stems from its ability to pinpoint exhaustion in selling pressure; typically when SOPR falls below 1 and begins to recover, indicating a potential reversal. For enhanced precision, it’s recommended to combine SOPR with the MVRV Z-Score to verify undervaluation, the Puell Multiple to assess miner profitability, and the Reset of Open Interest to detect leverage unwinding. This synergy of on-chain metrics strengthens the confidence in identifying optimal entry points during market downturns.

Reset of Open Interest

The Reset of Open Interest is a key metric too, reflecting the sudden unwinding of leveraged positions in Bitcoin futures markets, showing when all those leveraged degens get wrecked and their positions go poof. Such resets frequently mark the exhaustion of speculative excess, clearing the slate for price stabilization and potential recovery. By highlighting moments of extreme leverage reduction, (once the weak hands are toasted) the Reset of Open Interest offers a window into when selling pressure may be nearing its end, making it a valuable tool for investors seeking to time entries at cycle lows.

“Open Interest Definition

Open interest does not mean that people are openly interested in the market. Instead, it measures the number of outstanding contracts in a given market.

In other words, it tracks the positions that are still open and have not yet been closed.

In the simplest terms:

Open interest increasing = traders are opening new positions.

Open interest decreasing = traders are closing positions.

The biggest mistake I often see online is the claim that markets move because "there are more buyers than sellers."

This is not true. For every buyer, there must be a seller, and vice versa, meaning all positions are always matched 1:1.

So, why does open interest change if every trade has both a buyer and a seller?

The reason is that not everyone in the market is trading directionally. Delta-neutral participants, such as market makers, do not speculate on price movements—they simply provide liquidity.

Because of this, you can think of open interest as a measure of directional positions in the market.” (@abetrade 2025, Feb 18)

(image from @abetrade, 2025)

How can we use it as an indicator?

“Open Interest as an Indicator

Open interest is plotted as a running indicator in a separate panel below the price chart.

It is available on all popular charting platforms such as TradingView, Velo, TradingLite, and others.

We observe large changes in open interest, which can signal potential breakouts or the end of a move.

As you can see on the chart below, a significant rise in open interest while the price barely moves upward indicates that many directional longs have entered the market. If that’s the case, the price should be trading much higher.

This happens because someone on the opposite side is filling passive sell orders into rising prices. This could occur either on the same exchange or in the spot market.” (@abetrade 2025, Feb 18)

(image from @abetrade, 2025)

Let’s see a much clear example of an OI flush or a liquidation event:

“In this second example, you can see that open interest rose quickly as many directional longs opened positions while the price moved higher.

However, when the price sold off, open interest dropped sharply.

This happened because all those longs were forced to exit as their stop losses and liquidations were triggered.”(@abetrade 2025, Feb 18)

(image from @abetrade, 2025)

This X post highlights that sharp changes in open interest don’t always signal mean reversion, challenging a common trading misconception.

It explains how levels with significant open interest increases can act as support or resistance, influencing price action.

The image below shows a price chart with open interest, illustrating "position covering" and "absorption" as key market dynamics.

“What you’ll often see is people calling for mean reversion every time open interest rises or drops sharply.

However, things aren’t that simple.

Levels where open interest has significantly increased can often act as support or resistance. The key is to study the relationship between price action and open interest to understand underlying absorption and determine who holds the stronger hand in the market.” (@abetrade 2025, Feb 18)

(image from @abetrade, 2025)

We can see in the next chart showing BTC/USD Binance Perp Contract, and the Open Interest, since the beginning of this bull cycle at the end of 2022, we’ve seen many times (blue vertical lines) when a pronounced drop in Open Interest, usually marked the end of a sell off, and therefore leads to a recovery phase.

To wrap it up, When open interest (the total value of outstanding BTC futures contracts) takes a nosedive, it signals mass liquidations, wiping out overconfident traders and often marking the end of a sell-off. This reset is key because it shows when speculative froth has been squeezed out, setting the stage for a price bottom and a potential rebound. Pair it with on-chain gems like SOPR or MVRV Z-Score, and you’ve got a sharper shot at catching that low.

Hash Ribbons (Lagged)

Alright, let’s talk Hash Ribbons, historically one of the most accurate on-chain indicators that’s all about Bitcoin miners and their hash power hustle. It tracks the 30-day and 60-day moving averages (that’s why it is lagged) of the network’s hash rate, flashing signals when miners capitulate or recover.

Moving averages inherently smooth out data over time, so they react after changes in hash rate have already started. For example, if miners begin unplugging due to a price crash, it takes days or weeks for the 30-day average to dip below the 60-day, meaning the signal trails the initial market move.

The recovery signal (30-day crossing back above) is even more delayed because miners typically wait for price stabilization or slight upticks before restarting operations, which happens post-bottom.

You use it by watching for two key moves: when the 30-day dips below the 60-day (miners are tapping out), and then when it crosses back above (they’re plugging back in, bullish vibes).

“In August, I wrote an article on using Bitcoin’s Hash Rate to find major Bitcoin price bottoms based on miner capitulation. Just days before, WillyWoo published an indicator using Bitcoin’s Difficulty to achieve a similar result.

In this article, I apply a “ribbon” crossover approach to both Bitcoin’s Difficulty and Hash Rates, using the same moving average parameters for both sets of data. As might be expected, Hash Rate provides a leading indicator over Difficulty at identifying capitulation.

Further, using “Hash Ribbons” to identify bottoms for purchasing Bitcoin yields phenomenal results.

However, minor capitulation periods can last for weeks. As a result, the lag between Difficulty and Hash Rates doesn’t have a huge impact on the long-term Bitcoin investor. (Edwards, C. Medium, 2019, Oct 29)

The following chart illustrates that local Bitcoin bottoms are typically sharp, driven by panic selling or liquidations (such as those in futures markets, tracked by Open Interest (OI) as previously discussed) whereas Hash Ribbons captures a slower, operational shift in mining activity. This makes it more of a confirmation tool than a real-time trigger. I’ve highlighted instances since the 2018 bear market where Hash Ribbons flashed a buy signal. While these signals often preceded significant upward movements, offering substantial returns, the indicator frequently lags behind the absolute price low, missing the precise bottom.

Two specific examples: 2018 Bear Market, the BTC price bottomed around $3200 in December 2018, but the Hash Ribbons buy signal flashed in late December/early January 2019, with the recovery crossover not until February 2019, weeks after the absolute low.

May 2021 Crash, BTC hit local low near $30k, while the Hash Ribbons recovery signal didin’t confirm until July 2021, lagging the bottom by over a month due to China’s mining ban slowing miner reactions.

(image from Tradingview, 2025)

So how to use it correctly?

“Because of the effect of negative sentiment and price action during deep bear markets and times of miner capitulation, the best time to buy Bitcoin is typically somewhere in the middle of the “miner capitulation” period. But of course, this cannot be known until after the fact.

A simple 1- and 2-month simple moving average of Bitcoin’s Hash Rate can be used to identify market bottoms, miner capitulation and — even better — great times to buy Bitcoin.

When the 1-month SMA of Hash Rate crosses over the 2-month SMA of Hash Rate, the worst of the miner capitulation is typically over, and the recovery has begun. Buying at these points of time yields incredible results as shown below.

Of the 9 historic buy signals, the average gain to the next market cycle peak (historically less than 3 years away) is over 5000%.

Returns are even greater than shown here for positions held forever.

What is interesting is the downdraw through all time. The average maximum downdraw for each of these entries is just 11%.

These results are achieved without considering any other indicators, metrics or intelligence. Just two simple moving averages on Bitcoin’s Hash Rate.

Purchasing during miner capitulation, as the Hash Rates start to “recover” and only once price momentum has gone positive (using the 10–20 SMA cross) yields the results below (termed the “Hash Ribbon” indicator) (Edwards, C. Medium, 2019, Oct 29)

(image from Medium, 2019)

“Miner Capitulation doesn’t happen often, on average just once a year. But it has occurred following each of the last two halvenings.

Hash Rate leads Difficulty in identifying Bitcoin Miner Capitulation

Buying during Miner Capitulation, when the Hash Rate starts to recover, is a wonderful strategy

Going one step further, the majority of all draw downs can be eliminated from this strategy by waiting until the 10-day price SMA is above the 20 day price SMA

Next time you see the Hash Ribbon buy signal, you would be wise to pay attention” (Edwards, C. Medium, 2019, Oct 29)

On-chain indicators such as the 4 ones that we’ve just analyzed, offer a powerful toolkit for identifying local crypto market bottoms, revealing the underlying behaviors of holders, miners, and leveraged traders. While each provides unique insights, their strength is somehow limited; But here’s the kicker:, they are amplified when paired with traditional technical analysis tools like RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands.

Stablecoin Inflows

Beyond the core on-chain metrics mentioned before, Stablecoin Inflows have emerged as a vital indicator for assessing liquidity dynamics, as they measure the movement of stables (such as USDT, USDC, or BUSD) into exchanges, reflecting fresh capital entering the market, that investors may deploy to purchase BTC or other assets. During price dips this influx often heightened the buying potential, as stablecoins act as a bridge between fiat and crypto. So a surge in inflows can indicate accumulation or a precursor to a reversal.

“The price chart (image below) has $TOTAL up top & then the area chart below is (USDC MC + USDT MC).

I'll preface with this: Stablecoin market cap & price of crypto assets have a strong positive correction. Meaning, when more stable coins enter the market, price goes higher. When stable coins leave the market, price goes lower.

Now for the candle colors...

(blue) = Things are working how they're supposed to

(white)= Price is lagging liquidity & a catch up is due

Since January 1, 2025 we have seen 10's of billions of stable coins added to the crypto market, but price is not reacting how we'd expect (white candles).

This information is not immediately actionable, but it is actionable for higher time frame spot positioning. Over many weeks, we have never seen billions in stable coins added to crypto & price didn't follow shortly afterward. Similarly, we have never seen billions in stable coins leave the market & it not drag price down in the following weeks. (@MaxBecauseBTC, 2025, Feb 5)

(image from @MaxBecauseBTC, 2025)

“Stablecoin supply is now in price discovery and keeps making new highs.

This means that there is more liquidity entering the crypto market.

Capital inflows = bigger pumps across altcoins.” (@milesdeutscher, 2025, Jan 7)

(image from @milesdeutscher, 2025)

“At February '25, stablecoins have reached $214B in supply, facilitating an astounding $35T annual transfer volume—doubling @Visa's annual throughput. Active addresses jumped 53%, reaching 30M.

Institutional adoption is accelerating rapidly, bridging TradFi and crypto like never before.”(@Dune, 2025, March 18)

(image from @Dune, 2025)

Technical Analysis / Charts

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Bollinger Bands (BB) and the 50-week Moving Average, are essential technical analysis tools for identifying local bottoms. Where RSI detects when the market is oversold an ready to bounce,, MACD flexes momentum shifts, BB squeezes the volatility edge, and the 50-week MA provides a mid-term trend perspective. While each indicator has proven effective in spotting price dips, their accuracy (again) shines brightest when combined. Now, we’re leveling up, by stacking these TA legends, with the on-chain insights from the previous chapter, we’re forging a great analysis framework, to nail both local and macro market bottoms with greater precision.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is our momentum wingman, a slick oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, from 0 to 100 scale, it is used to assess whether an asset like Bitcoin is overbought or oversold. Developed by J. Welles Wilder, it crunches 14 days of gains versus losses to give us a clear snapshot of market strength. RSI is a machine for identifying bottoms, generally signaled when it drops below 30, suggesting selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion and a reversal could be imminent.

“RSI is a momentum indicator that compares the movement of price over time for a stock, index, or other security.

The indicator compares the average price change of up closes to down closes and presents the results on a scale from 1 to 100. Faber writes that ‘Depending on the look back period selected for a market, the RSI can be a leading indicator forewarning of changes in the trend of the market. If, however, the look back period is too short and the market is in a persistent trend, then the RSI may indicate the end of a trend prematurely. Thus, you should consider looking for more technical evidence of a change in the trend and not rely solely upon the RSI.’

The default look back period is 14 days, but I found in a test years ago that 16 worked best for both buy and sell signals. Faber says that 9 and 25 days are also popular values for the indicator.

According to Wilder, Readings below 30 mean the security is oversold and closer to a bottom or a significant bullish reaction. Both apply to charts on the daily or weekly scale. Faber says that ‘some traders look for the RSI to top out at 60 during bear market rallies and to hold at 40 during bull market reactions.’

Faber makes an interesting comment when he writes that "Chart patterns are often observed on the plot of the RSI. Many times, support and resistance breakouts are shown by the RSI before it becomes obvious in the price chart" (emphasis added).

Divergence between the indicator and price shows when price trends one way and the indicator moves another. Faber says that "When the RSI pattern diverges with the price chart pattern, chances are that the market will soon follow the RSI." (Bulkowski, Thomas N. Thepatternsite, 2025, Feb 25)

(image from Aiolux, 2025)

To use it effectively, traders watch for RSI to dip into this oversold zone and then look for a bounce or divergence from price action (such as a higher RSI low against a lower price low) as confirmation of a potential local bottom, making it a practical tool for timing entry points.

“The combination of an oversold daily followed by regular bullish divergence has marked many major bottoms. Bitcoin” (@nestayxbt, 2025, March 12)

(image from @nestayxbt, 2025)

Being one of the most accurate TA indicators based on its timeliness, even predicting potential trend turns before it's obvious in the chart, make it one of the most profitable signals abroad in the whole spectrum. It has also been backtested based on 100 years of Dow Jones data, proving RSI and Bollinger Bands to be the most reliable indicators, consistently delivering high win rates across both testing periods.

“To make the test as reliable as possible, we analyzed nearly 100 years of Dow Jones Industrial Average data. We split the timeline into two phases:

In-Sample Period (October 1, 1928 – December 31, 1995):

We used this period to develop and refine the strategies.

Out-of-Sample Period (January 2, 1996 – December 31, 2024):

This was the real-world test. We applied the strategies to this new data to see if they held up.

The goal? To find the technical indicator that performs best over nearly a century of market data. It’s been an exciting journey digging into the data and uncovering actionable insights from the results.” (Parra, M. NewTrading, 2025, Jan 8)

(image from NewTrading, 2025)

“These are the indicators that you can rely on to call the right shots, proving their worth not just in controlled testing but also in the unpredictable twists and turns of real market conditions. High reliability like this is what separates the truly dependable tools from the rest.” (Parra, M. NewTrading, 2025, Jan 8)

(image from NewTrading, 2025)

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a slick momentum indicator that’s all about catching trend shifts. Cooked up by Gerald Appel in the 70’s, it tracks the relationship between a fast 12-period EMA (further in this document we are explaining all about Moving Averages, don’t worry), and a slow 26-period EMA, with a 9-period signal line to seal the deal. When the MACD line crosses above the signal, it’s go-time; below, it means hold your horses. For nailing local lows, we need to watch for bullish divergences (price dropping lower while MACD creeps higher) signaling the dump’s losing strength. It’s great for timing that dip-buy, blending trend and momentum into one strong package.

“...is a technical indicator to help investors identify price trends, measure trend momentum, and identify entry points for buying or selling. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of a security’s price. MACD was developed in the 1970s by Gerald Appel, and is one of the most popular technical tools” (@DividendSnwball, 2025, March 23)

“MACD Simplified📒

🔵Its an indicator to identify the momentum & strength of a trend

🔵It is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA which is called as MACD Line

🔵9D EMA of the MACD line is called signal line which trails the MACD line

🔵MACD triggers technical signals when it crosses above (to buy) or below (to sell) its signal line

🔵The speed of crossovers is also taken as a signal of a market is overbought or oversold.

🔵MACD divergences also need to checked before buy/sell” (@MarketScientist, 2020, Dec 5)

(image from @MarketScientist, 2020)

How can we use the MACD indicator?

“BULLISH MACD SIGNALS:

When the MACD line crosses above the signal/zero line:

Histogram negativity decreases, and regular/hidden divergences occur.

These indicate potential upward momentum or trend continuation.” (@SoulzBTC, 2025, March 17)

(image from @SoulzBTC, 2025)

“When the crossing of the MACD line with the Signal line occurs from the bottom up, the trend will be bullish.

When the crossing of the MACD line with the Signal line occurs from top to bottom, the trend will be bearish.” (@SoulzBTC, 2025, March 17)

(image from @SoulzBTC, 2025)

How accurate is it though?

“#BTC 3-Day MACD crossed up and confirmed yesterday

Once again this indicator has lead to higher prices with 100% accuracy for the past 3 years as we see higher prices today:” (@MatthewHyland_, 2024, Feb 12)

“#Bitcoin Weekly MACD crossed bullish for the first time since October 2023! 👀

But this picture reminds me a lot of 2021: same Vertical Rally (MACD peaked) followed by a painful Mid Term Correction (however, this time it’s not that deep, it just took more time).

Now $BTC is breaking out of that multi-month consolidation as MACD crosses bullish again 🐂

💡 IMO what we’re gonna see is a new ATH on price & a Lower High on MACD” (@CryptoBullet1, 2024,Oct 23)

(image from @CryptoBullet1, 2024)

“CONFIRMED #Bitcoin bearish MACD crossover on the 5-day chart. Is this time different?

The last three MACD bearish crossovers at these higher levels have produced the following corrections signaling at least a local top:

• April 2021 (-55%)

• Nov 2021 (-75%)

• April 2024 (-33%)

• Jan 2025 (-???)

Target 4 is a -35% correction.” (@JesseOlson, 2025, Jan 11)

(image from @JesseOlson, 2025)

“#btc weekly MACD update.

Histogram as extended as last time.

MACD in same position above the zero line that coincided with lowest price last time.” (@davthewave, 2025, March 21)

(image from @davthewave, 2025)

MACD indicator proves to be a reliable tool, leveraging its momentum-based insights, but we must consider that it may lag in sideways markets and isn’ infallible on its own, its effectiveness increases when combined with on-chain metrics, or complementary TA indicators like RSI.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands (BB), developed by John Bollinger, are a technical analysis tool that uses a 20-day moving average as a centerline, flanked by two bands calculated from standard deviation to reflect market volatility. To identify local market bottoms, traders observe when the price approaches or falls below the lower band (indicating potential oversold conditions) and then rebounds back within the bands, suggesting a reversal may be near.

“The Bollinger Bands (BB) were created in the early 1980s by financial analyst and trader John Bollinger. Basically, the Bollinger Bands work as an oscillator measurer. It indicates whether the market has high or low volatility, as well as overbought or oversold conditions.

The main idea behind the BB indicator is to highlight how prices are dispersed around an average value. More specifically, it is composed of an upper band, a lower band, and a middle moving average line (also known as the middle band). The two sidelong bands react to the market price action, expanding when the volatility is high (moving away from the middle line) and contracting when volatility is low (moving towards the middle line).” (Binance Academy, 2023, Aug 16)

So basically besides from telling us about overbought or oversold conditions, like the RSI, the bands movements also show whether the volatility is high or low. Let’s see how we can use this indicator to identify local bottoms.

“if the price of a certain asset drops significantly and exceeds or touches the lower band multiple times, chances are the market is either oversold or found a strong support level.

Therefore, traders may use BB (along with other TA indicators) to set their selling or buying targets. Or simply to get an overview of the previous points where the market presented overbought and oversold conditions.

In addition, the Bollinger Bands expansion and contraction may be useful when trying to predict moments of high or low volatility. The bands can either move away from the middle line as the price of the asset becomes more volatile (expansion) or move towards it as the price becomes less volatile (contraction or squeeze).

So, the Bollinger Bands are better suited for short-term trading as a way to analyze the market’s volatility and try to predict forthcoming movements. Some traders assume that when the bands are over-expanded, the current market trend may be close to a consolidation period or a trend reversal. Alternatively, when the bands get too tight, traders tend to assume that the market is getting ready to make an explosive movement.

When the market price is moving sideways, the BB tends to narrow towards the simple moving average line in the middle. Usually (but not always), low volatility and tight deviation levels precede large and explosive movements, which tend to occur as soon as the volatility picks back up.” (Binance Academy, 2023, Aug 16)

And what about its accuracy over time, and its current status?

“#BTC 1D Bollinger Bands were this tight only in January 2023 & August 2023 👀

🚨 Something big is coming” (@CryptoBullet1, 2025, Feb 24)

(image from @CryptoBullet1, 2025)

“During this bull market, the Weekly lower Bollinger Band has only been tested four times.

So far, each time coincided with a local-bottom before the next rally. The question is if history repeats once again?” (@MirageMogul, 2025, March 12)

(image from @MirageMogul, 2025)

“The Bollinger Bands are squeezing 👀 What happens next?” (@BTC_Bella9420, 2025, March 17)

(image from @BTC_Bella9420, 2025)

Bollinger Bands serve as a valuable tool, however, their accuracy is significantly enhanced when used in confluence with other indicators, such as RSI or SOPR, which together provide a more comprehensive view of market dynamics and reduce the risk of false signals. This emphasis on confluence sets the stage for exploring the 50-week Moving Average, our next focus, which complements Bollinger Bands by adding a longer-term trend perspective to refine timing and strengthen bottom-spotting strategies.

50-period Moving Average

Moving Averages (MAs) are the unsung heroes of the chart game, smoothing out price chaos to reveal the market’s true direction. Whether it’s the quick 50-day MA catching short-term flips or the larger 50-week MA mapping the trend. Their power lies in cutting through the noise, showing support zones for bottoms or resistance for tops, and when they cross, guess what, Golden signals!

In the next Daily BTC chart, with data from early 2019, where I marked the most significant instances (green vertical lines) when the 50-Day MA makes a “Golden cross” over the 200-Day MA marking a bullish trend, and the times (vertical red lines) when they flashed a “Death Cross” suggesting an imminent downtrend ahead, also I marked with yellow arrows, two times since the start of this bull run where the 200-Day MA acted as a support for the 50-Day MA, this time they have not crossed yet, and hopefully the 200-Day MA is acting as a support one more time.

(image from Tradingview, 2025)

“Moving Averages (MAs) are indicators that average price data over a specific period, creating a smooth line on the chart.

Types of MAs:

Simple Moving Average (SMA) : Equal weight to all data points.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) : More weight to recent data, making it more responsive to price changes.

Weighted Moving Average (WMA) : Assigns weights to data points based on their age.

Hull Moving Average (HMA) : Reduces lag and reacts quickly to price changes.

Understanding the EMAs in This Strategy

10 EMA : Captures short-term price momentum.

20 EMA : Tracks minor corrections in the trend.

50 EMA : Represents intermediate trends, crucial for swing trading.

100 EMA : Confirms medium-term trend continuation.

200 EMA : The gold standard for long-term trend direction.” (@nsinghal211, 2025, January 16)

(image from @nsinghal211, 2025)

“Short-Term Moving Averages

5, 9, 10, 13 Periods

Use : Intraday trading, scalping.

Purpose : Identify quick momentum and small price swings.

Medium-Term Moving Averages

20, 50 Periods

Use : Swing trading, positional trading.

Purpose : Spot intermediate trends and key support/resistance.

Long-Term Moving Averages

100, 200 Periods

Use : Positional and long-term investing.

Purpose : Confirm long-term trend direction and filter noise.

Common Moving Average Combinations

20 SMA + 50 SMA : Swing trading.

50 EMA + 200 EMA : Long-term trend confirmation.

5 EMA + 13 EMA : Intraday scalping.”(@nsinghal211, 2025, January 16)

We now know that MAs are a powerful tool with many variants and many periods for different purposes, but for the sake of this document we need to establish first the importance of the 200-week MA for BTC, as it is a cornerstone indicator, revered in the crypto community for its ability to define long-term trends and act as a critical support level, especially during bear markets.

200-week MA calculates the average closing price of bitcoin over the past 200 weeks, roughly 3.8 year, almost the duration of an entire BTC cycle, that’s why it has consistently acted as a long-term support floor and a trend indicator during bull cycles.

It’s a reliable gauge of Bitcoin’s macro direction. Staying above it, signals a bull market; dipping below flags a bearish shift. For instance, BTC crossing above in mid-2019 marked the start of a rally, while falling below in 2022 confirmed the downtrend.

As a 200-week average, it’s slow to react, great for macro trends but useless for short-term trades or local bottoms. By the time it adjusts, the bottom might be long gone. Faster indicators like RSI or the 50-week MA outshine here. Its strength is in the big picture, not the quick flip, that’s why we are focusing on the 50-period EMA as we want more weight to the recent data for identifying local bottoms with greater precision.

How to use it?

“Bullish Setup :

Price above all EMAs, and EMAs are aligned as :

10 EMA > 20 EMA > 50 EMA > 100 EMA > 200 EMA.

Wait for price to pull back near 20 EMA or 50 EMA.

Confirm with volume spike or oscillator like RSI above 50.

Trend Reversal Signals

Bullish Reversal :

Price crosses above 50 EMA, with 10 EMA > 20 EMA > 50 EMA.

Confirm with RSI moving above 50 and MACD bullish crossover.

Bearish Reversal :

Price crosses below 50 EMA, with 10 EMA < 20 EMA < 50 EMA.

Confirm with declining RSI and MACD bearish crossover.

Moving Average Crossover Strategy

Setup : Use two MAs (e.g., EMA(9) and SMA(20)).

Golden Cross : Short MA crosses above the long MA (Bullish).

Death Cross : Short MA crosses below the long MA (Bearish).

Trend Following Strategy

Setup : Use a single MA (e.g., EMA(50)).

Buy Signal : Price above the MA; trend is bullish.

Sell Signal : Price below the MA; trend is bearish.

Support and Resistance Strategy

Use long-term MAs like SMA(200) as dynamic support/resistance. (@nsinghal211, 2025, January 16)

This technical analysis toolkit (MACD, MAs, BBs, & RSI) stands as a formidable array for navigating volatile cycles, each bringing unique strengths to the table. Their real power emerges when these indicators align, such as an RSI dip below 30 coinciding with a MACD bullish crossover near the lower Bollinger Band, offering a robust signal for local bottoms. Yet, their effectiveness doesn’t stop there, pairing them with on-chain metrics like SOPR or the Puell Multiple supercharges their precision, blending market sentiment with blockchain data to pinpoint reversals with greater confidence.

When the 50-week Moving Average confirms a trend shift alongside a Bollinger Band squeeze, or RSI and MACD together hint at exhaustion, the combined signal cuts through noise more effectively than any single tool. Extending this further, integrating these chart-based indicators with on-chain and macro signals (such as Hash Ribbons or DXY movements) creates a well based, data-driven framework.

Other Indicators

In addition to traditional chart-based, on-chain and macro tools, a set of complementary indicators (Capitulation by Weak Hands / Volume Analysis, Fear and Greed Index alongside Social Media Sentiment, Whale Accumulation, and Stablecoin Inflows) offers valuable insights for identifying local bottoms. These metrics capture critical market dynamics: heightened volume during weak-hand sell-offs signals capitulation, fear and greed metrics paired with social media trends reflect investor psychology, whale buying indicates strategic accumulation, and stablecoin inflows suggest incoming liquidity. Their importance lies in providing a broader view of sentiment, behavior, and capital flows, enhancing the ability to pinpoint reversal points that purely technical indicators might overlook.

Volume analysis / Capitulation by Weak Hands

Volume analysis, paired with the concept of capitulation by weak hands, serves as a critical lens for identifying potential cryptocurrency market bottoms too. Volume (the total amount of Bitcoin/crypto traded over a given period), spikes dramatically during capitulation, when less resilient investors, or "weak hands," panic-sell at a loss amid sharp price declines. This surge often marks the exhaustion of selling pressure, as fear drives these holders to exit, leaving the market primed for a reversal. Historical examples, like the 2018 Bitcoin bottom near $3,200 with a volume peak, or the Covid Crash also with a spike in volume, (seen in the next chart) highlight how this dynamic signals a local low, making it a key tool for traders aiming to time entries.

(image from Tradingview, 2025)

However, volume and capitulation signals alone can be noisy, prone to false positives in choppy markets. Their true power emerges through confluence with other indicators. For instance, pairing a volume spike with an oversold RSI or a bullish MACD crossover strengthens the case for a reversal, while alignment with on-chain metrics like SOPR (showing widespread loss-taking) adds further conviction. This multi-indicator approach filters out misleading signals, ensuring greater accuracy in pinpointing genuine market bottoms.

“Volume is a LEADING indicator,

it confirms or denies price action.

Let's talk Volume Trading 101:

to get a better handle on volume,

here are two questions to ask:

1. Does it make sense for anyone to buy at the current price?

2. Does it make sense for anyone to sell at the current price?

Here is a framework that can be used to answers these two basic questions-

my two-cents:

1. Increasing volume during a trend w/ consolidation & cool-downs in b/w on low volume = supply-demand is skewed towards the demand side -> good for continuation.

2. Increasing volume into key resistance or support - where the increased volume is not producing an appreciable change in price - indicating buyer or seller exhaustion.

3. Low volume or perp. driven moves (long/short squeezes)= not sustainable.

In the world of futures and spot, you want to look for spot chasing/bidding to follow-through on the back of squeezes through key resistances otherwise the move is typically a fade.

Spot indicates the underlying strength of a move.

you can use various tools such as fixed range volume profile (FRVP), Relative Volume, , Session Volume, read the tape, etc. to make observations & draw conclusions.” (@Stoiiic, 2024, May 27)

(image from Tradingview, 2025, March 24)

Based on current data as of late March, 2025 we can see in the image above a reversal uptrend but with a divergence between volume and price action, probably there is not enough strength from demand side.

Waiting for confirmation to the upside if price breaks up EMA 50 with a big green volume bar, otherwise price action is still weak and ready to fall down. Here’s a post confirming that theory.

“$BTC Uptrend with volume making divergence with price, meaning there is no pumping force.

At this point, if there is a big green volume bar , and price break up EMA50, then there is a chance to continue up. If not, then it is still weak and ready to fall down.” (@khemkhao, 2025, March 24)

But as always we must take into account other indicators or signals from the ecosystem as well, in this case the Retaill Bitcoin Holers, which apparently are selling off their coins according to Cointelegraph.

“📊 JUST IN: Retail Bitcoin holders (with balances under 1 $BTC) are selling off their coins, mirroring the capitulation pattern seen in late 2020.

Today, this group holds 35% more Bitcoin (1.75 million BTC) than they did in 2020.” (@cointelegraph, 2025, March 14)

(image from @Cointelegraph, 2025)

A divergence between price action and volume, where Retail selling should be a compelling indicator of a speculators-driven bull trap (speculators are fueling the bull trap, because Retail selling reduces buying pressure, leaving the rally dependent on speculative momentum and without volume or whale support, the price can’t hold), setting up a reversal., conclusions should be made considering other factors like large wallet accumulation, (and in confluence with previous technical, macro and on-chain indicators) our next indicator, the Whale accumulation.

Whale accumulation

Whale accumulation, (the strategic buying by large Bitcoin holders known as "whales") signals confidence from influential players when prices are low. As these high-net-worth investors or institutions scoop up BTC during downturns (often absorbing panic-selling by weaker hands, like the event we just registered) it can mark the tipping point where selling pressure wanes and a reversal looms. This activity is crucial because whales’ deep pockets and market insight often foreshadow recoveries, as seen in past cycles like the 2022 bottom near $17,600. To track their moves effectively, metrics like the Exchange Whale Ratio (comparing large transactions to total exchange inflows), and the Total Balance/Balance Change of large holders (1k-10k balance) offer the clearest windows into whale behavior, as we can see in the next post.

“Whales have accumulated more than 65,000 $BTC in the last 30 days.

WHALES ARE BUYING WHILE YOU'RE SELLING!!!” (@CryptoGoos, 2025, March 14)

(image from, @CryptoGoos, 2025)

In the next example for more clarity, we should look at the top colored bar from the spectrum, as it shows the whales (>10k BTC) buying pattern as a trend accumulation score, where the blue zones reflect strong steady buys, and red zones reflect sales. Deep blue zones around august 2024 signals whale buys around ~$60k, followed by strong sales between January and February 2025 around ~$100k, and as the post states, whales have pushed their accumulation score above 0.5 again, a clear sign of a steady buying period.

“Whales holding >10K $BTC have pushed their Accumulation Trend Score above 0.5 - a clear sign of steady buying. On the cohort-level chart, they’re the only group showing decisive accumulation, while smaller holders are still net sellers.” (@glassnode, 2025, March 26)

(image from @glassnode, 2025)

Ok, alright whales often outperform Retail investors, that’s how and why they’re whales at the end of the day, we get it, but how can we measure in some sort of way retail behavior, like potential panic sells or eventual market tops, this is where our useful market sentiment / Social media, indicators tool-kit become relevant.

Fear & Greed Index & Social Media Sentiment

Fear & Greed Index stands as the ultimate barometer of crypto market sentiment, often driving and enhancing retail behavior, distilling emotions into a single score from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed),using factors like volatility momentum and social chatter. when fear peaks, (often below 20) it signals widespread panic and overselling. Historically aligning with BTC lows like the $30k dip in mid 2021.

Social Media Sentiment tools such as Lunar Crush, which tracks real-time crypto buzz across platforms, and google trends, provide a based pulse on crowd psychology.

(image from Alternative. me, 2025)

“Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 45 ~ Neutral

Current price: $88,230” (@BitcoinFear, March 24, 2025)

(image from @BitcoinFear, 2025)

“The crypto sentiment has continued its decline. The current situation is clear outlier when analyzing the last 3 years. A clear case for a bear market... 🐻” (@JSavonen1 2025, March 23)

(image from @JSavonen1, 2025)

Sometimes showing a clear floor like the above chart shows, which compares BTC-USD vs BTC News Sentiment. and other times showing a reversal in sentiment based on week inflows like our next example.

“Sentiment is recovering in digital assets with US$644m inflows following a 5 week spell of outflows” (@jbutterfill, 2025, March 24)

(image from @jbutterfill, 2025)

Other recently developed social sentiment indicators, like our next funny example (if I may be honest) sometimes makes the most sense, and helps seal the deal, to the idea that we are in the middle of something, not at the end.

“⚡️ NEW: Rolex Index indicates market euphoria hasn’t arrived yet.

In early 2022, as $BTC declined and Rolex prices soared to record highs, marking peak market euphoria as investors shifted into low-liquidity collectibles.

This cycle, the Rolex Market Index remains stable, suggesting euphoria has yet to set in.” (@Cointelegraph, 2025, March 17)

(image from @Cointelegraph, 2025)

Conclusion

This research has explored a diverse arsenal of indicators (spanning macro, on-chain, TA, and sentiment-driven metrics) to illuminate the art and science of spotting local Bitcoin/crypto market bottoms. From the macro lens, Interest Rates and Monetary Policy, the DXY, M2 Money Supply, and ETF Inflows reveal the broader economic currents steering crypto’s tides, with tightening cycles or a surging dollar often pressuring prices, while ETF inflows signal institutional lifelines at lows. On-chain indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, SOPR, Reset of Open Interest, Hash Ribbons, and Stablecoin Inflows dive into Bitcoin’s blockchain soul, capturing undervaluation, miner stress, holder capitulation, leverage purges, mining recovery, and liquidity surges that mark reversal zones.

TA tools (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, and Moving Averages 50-week and 200-week) bring chart precision, flagging oversold conditions, momentum shifts, volatility squeezes, and trend floors. Rounding it out, Capitulation by Weak Hands with Volume Analysis, the Fear & Greed Index with Social Media Sentiment, and Whale Accumulation tap into market psychology and big-player moves, spotlighting panic peaks and strategic buying.

To wield this framework effectively, merge these signals into a confluence-driven playbook: watch for a macro setup like easing rates or ETF inflows aligning with on-chain clues (say, SOPR below 1 and Stablecoin Inflows spiking) while RSI dips below 30 and the 200-week MA holds firm. Volume spikes with whale scoops and a Fear & Greed score in the teens? (That’s our green light!) local bottom vibes are screaming. No single indicator is king; it’s the overlap that cuts the noise, like Hash Ribbons confirming a recovery as Bollinger Bands tighten.

Start broad with macro context, zoom into on-chain and TA for timing, and use sentiment to gauge the crowd’s pulse. This layered approach doesn’t just guess at bottoms, it hunts them with data-backed precision. Although it is imperative to acknowledge that we should keep tweaking the mix as crypto evolves and be mindful when changes occur in the correlation between indicators and price movements, to have the greatest edge on the game.

Disclaimer

This publication is for information, educational and entertainment purposes only, and represents neither investment advice, nor an investment analysis or an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Specifically, the document does not serve as a substitute for individual investment or other advice. The statements contained in this publication are based on the knowledge as of the time of preparation and are subject to change at any time without further notice. The author has exercised the greatest possible care in the selection of the information sources employed, however, he does not accept any responsibility (and neither does Coinsider or RetailDAO) for the correctness, completeness or timeliness of the information, respectively the information sources, made available, as well as any liabilities or damages, irrespective of their nature, that may result there from (including consequential or indirect damages, loss of prospective profits or the accuracy of prepared forecasts).

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