2024 WR Preseason Injury Summaries
I plan on providing an extensive summary for the top 20 WRs, then discuss several WRs coming back from injury as well as top rookies.
CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has one of the cleanest injury history will ever see. It’s not that he hasn’t sustained
injuries, he has, but he’s only missed one NFL game due to injury and that was a concussion three years ago. I had the privilege of meeting CeeDee last year and talked to him about his body, conditioning, and let’s just say I was super impressed with how in tune he was with his body. Well beyond his years. Fantasy-wise, Lamb has beautifully progressed in each of the past 4 years, going from WR22 to WR19 to WR5 to WR1. Lamb scored 100 more PPR points in 2023 than in 2022. 181 targets, 135 catches for over 1,700 yards and 12 TDs. Then he added 113 rushing yards & 2 more TDs. Monster season. The beautiful thing is, I have no reason to think that he won’t be able to repeat this type of season in 2024. Dak is still there, offense is nearly identical, possibly slightly worse with Pollard gone and Zeke returning. He is very volume dependent but otherwise I have no concerns heading into 2024. Lock for a top 3, safest WR in the draft in my opinion.
Update: Lamb has signed a massive extension. Still no extension for Dak but I’m not concerned. He’s VERY in tune with his body so I’m not super concerned about an injury for him but sometimes the timing is off early in the season. He’s still in the top 5 for me, but I’d rather have Tyreek Hill than Lamb right now.
LOW RISK
Tyreek Hill: Hill has been a super reliable elite wide receiver over the past 7 years. He has his fair share of injuries, but majority of the time he’s able to play through them, even impressively, returning after only missing one game this past season due to a high-ankle sprain. The only time Tyreek didn’t play at least 15 games in a season was back in 2019, when he suffered a super rare and crazy injury to his chest called a posterior sternoclavicular dislocation, which sometimes is life-threatening, but thankfully only cost him 4 games. Initially, many thought the move from Kansas City to Miami could be detrimental to his value, but if anything it improved it. Hill has finished as a top 10, often top 5 wide receiver, in each of the past seven years except for that 2019 season. He scored 30 more points in 2023 compared to 2022, yet still finished again as the WR2. Despite just turning 30 years old, I think there’s a very good chance he has a couple more strong, elite, healthy seasons in him.
LOW RISK
Ja’Marr Chase: In his three years in the NFL, Chase has proved to be among the elite for wide receivers. Finishing in the top 12 in each of the three years despite missing games in 2022 and 2023. In 2022 he had that weird hip injury, described as a hairline fracture and torn labrum that kept him out 4 games. This past season he tweaked his back in early November, but played through it, then suffered that right AC shoulder sprain that held him out one game in December. Right in the middle of your fantasy football playoffs where he scored weekly point counts of 5.9, 10.40, missed game, and 7.1. Rough way to end the season. We also have to remember that Joe Burrow suffered that significant season-ending right throwing wrist injury in the middle of 2023, and he was catching balls from a backup QB in Browning. Chase has some injury risks, but he’s proven that he can play through them, is relatively QB-proof, and is elite when he’s on the field. The bigger question for Chase is how much will Joe Burrow’s wrist injury potentially impact Chase. Although you can read Burrow’s profiles, in general I’m not super concerned about his wrist injury, but there is definitely an unknown that has to be accounted for. Regardless, Chase's moderate injury risk and Burrow’s injury risk are personally just enough for me to fade Chase, as I’ll be choosing either Lamb, ARSB or Hill over him if I’m drafting a top 5 WR.
Update: Chase still hasn’t signed an extension and I have concerns about slightly increased injury risk for him in light of him not fully practicing. I’m not sure he’s playing in Week 1. I don’t believe he’s going to play without a contract. Specifically for soft tissue injuries. I’m personally off Chase this year but I still expect him to finish in the top 10 in PPG.
MODERATE RISK
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson, fresh off of a massive deal, looks to continue his dominance in 2024. He had been able to stay really healthy throughout his college and early NFL career, not missing a single game in his first three years. Unfortunately that ended in early October 2023 when he suffered a right grade 2 hamstring strain that landed him on the IR and cost him 7 games. Upon returning in December Jefferson suffered a left chest injury, likely a rib cartilage bruise, initially required a trip to the hospital, but he was able to return to the following week. He finished the season strong in classic dominating Justin Jefferson fashion. Jefferson will have to deal with a change in quarterbacks in 2024, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Going from Kirk Cousins to likely Sam Darnold, at least initially, and then possibly to JJ McCarthy. Expecting some type of dip in QB play is realistic. I’m not overly concerned about Jefferson’s injury risk, but I think he’s closer to the WR5 than to the WR1.
Update: With the loss of McCarthy to a season-ending knee injury, my love for JJ dropped a little. He’s the most talented WR in the league, I just don’t like Sam Darnold and have serious concerns about his ability to successfully operate this offense. The volume will be there and there may be a bunch of blowouts so he could be targeted 15+ times a game. They will likely be without Hockenson for the first 6 weeks of the season, Addison is banged up and there’s not much from preventing the defense from double-teaming JJ.
LOW RISK
Amon-Ra St. Brown: ARSB, aka the ‘Sun God,’ has been a fantasy beast the past 3 seasons since being drafted in the 4th round by the Lions. St. Brown has finished as the WR7 in 2022 and then WR3 in 2023. He has missed only 2 games in the NFL due to injury. One was an ankle injury in 2022 that cost him a game, and then an abdominal injury that cost him another in 2023. He’s known to play through minor injuries and never missed a game in college due to injury. I have minimal injury concerns for him, and it's possible he could get even better in 2024. His targets have jumped in each of the past 2 years from 119 to 146 to 164. I love ARSB and reached for him last year in the late 2nd to early 3rd. Unfortunately this year you’re going to need to draft him in the late 1st or early 2nd in order to get him. I expect his target share to linger around 28-30% (it was 29.9% in 2023) and he should continue to dominate the slot.
LOW RISK
Garrett Wilson: Garrett Wilson has played in all 34 possible NFL games, and has been incredibly consistent in his 2 years in the NFL. He scored 244.7 in 2022 and 240.7 in 2023. Everyone expected him to finish in the top 10, possibly top 5 in 2023 with the addition of Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately 4 snaps into the season that all changed with Rodgers tearing his Achilles. His targets were elite, as he finished with 168 which is essentially 10 targets per game. In 2023 those targets were coming from Zach Wilson and other subpar QBs, but those targets should be coming from Aaron Rodgers this year. They will be early and often. Wilson is elite and this is the year he breaks into the top 5. He has only missed 1 game due to injury in his entire career, and that was from a concussion. I’m expecting 160+ targets, 90+ catches, 1,000+ yards, and 6+ TDs. Low risk no concerns.
LOW RISK
A.J. Brown: I think it’s safe to say that the Eagles are happy with the A.J. Brown they traded for. Brown has been incredible since arriving in Philadelphia, finishing as the WR6, then the WR5 the past 2 years. His targets have skyrocketed and that’s expected to continue in 2024. It is true that he really struggled in the second half of the season (by his standards), posting no games above 22 points after Week 8, whereas he had 5 over the first 8 weeks. AJB has played through a bunch of soft tissue injuries during his time in the NFL and college. He missed 2 games in 2020 with knee injuries, likely meniscal injuries that lingered all season. Then in 2021 he missed 3 games with a rib injury, likely a rib fracture. Overall he’s definitely not injury prone, is low risk, and should finish in the top 6 WRs again in 2024.
LOW RISK
Puka Nacua: In last year’s version of this guide, Puka Nacua was one of my Sleepers, and on a lot of my teams. Man did that work out well, he finished as the WR4, catching 105 passes for almost 1,500 yards and 6 TDs, as a rookie nonetheless. He missed 3 games his junior season at BYU with ankle and lower leg injuries. During his monster rookie season he played all 17 games despite dealing with oblique, knee and shoulder injuries. I believe that Puka is only going to get stronger and a more well-rounded WR, which is scary to think of. I love his potential in 2024 and think he has a fantastic chance of finishing in the top 5, regardless of the health of Cooper Kupp.
Update: I have dropped Puka about 10 spots in my rankings after he suffered a knee injury in the preseason. The team is calling it a bursa sac injury, which is not overly concerning, but the timeline they gave is week-to-week which isn’t consistent with a bursa injury. I personally think his PCL is damaged, and these don’t heal well. This is the ligament that stabilizes the knee and prevents it from ‘sagging.’ As a result, I think he might have trouble starting, stopping, and cutting like he usually does. Also increased his injury risk from LOW to MODERATE.
MODERATE RISK
Drake London: London was drafted with the 8th pick out of USC in 2022, and has been disappointing through his first 2 NFL seasons despite playing in 33 of 34 games for a myriad of reasons. Thankfully for London it wasn’t injuries holding him back; it was most likely poor playing calling that was run-heavy as well as awful QB play. London had a right ankle fracture in 2021, but otherwise has avoided other major injuries. His only missed game was in 2023 due to a groin strain, despite spraining his knee multiple times in 2022. London’s struggles weren’t due to lack of volume, as he posted 110 and 117 targets over the past 2 years. With those 227 targets, he caught 141 passes for 1,771 yards and only 6 TDs. A 62% catch rate is concerning and should hopefully improve with Kirk Cousins coming to town, despite being his first season post-Achilles. His new OC, Zac Robinson, comes from the Sean McVay tree and indirectly Shanahan coaching tree. It will be interesting to see how much this transfers to London but he’s currently being priced as the WR10 so everyone is expecting a breakout. I have minimal concerns about injuries and prefer him over Chris Olave and Davante Adams.
LOW RISK
Marvin Harrison Jr.: Heralded as a generational prospect that ‘can’t miss,’ Marvin Harrison Jr. has a ton of expectations and pressure on him as a rookie. He has been able to stay healthy and never missed a game in college due to injury, despite playing through all of 2022 with an ankle injury, then suffering a concussion, and playing with another ankle sprain in 2023. He should immediately slot in as Kyler Murray’s #1 WR and pair beautifully with Trey McBride. Harrison Jr. is currently being drafted as the WR9 which is a little too rich for my taste despite the justifiable talent. Low injury concern.
LOW RISK
Tank Dell: Tank Dell made the teams that passed on him in the 2023 Draft aware of his immense talent early in his NFL career, dropping 20+ fantasy points in back-to-back games by Week 3. Out of the 10 games he played in 2023, he scored 17+ fantasy points in 6 of 10, and 20+ in 4 out of 10. This is despite being 5’10” and weighing in at a tiny 165 pounds. He missed Week 6 with a concussion, then from Weeks 9-12 put up an impressive 94.6 fantasy points, 23.6 PPG, despite dealing with a calf injury. In Week 13, while blocking on the goal line, he suffered a left ankle fracture (fibula) that required surgery, ending his impressive rookie season. Then in the offseason, while in his hometown of Daytona Beach, FL Dell was involved in a shooting at a nightclub. Reportedly at the wrong place at the wrong time. Sounds like he got lucky, only suffering minor wounds to his lower extremity, likely a flesh wound. I do not expect to have any long-term issues due to this injury. The Texans offense could be one of the best in the NFL this year, with Stroud, Mixon, Collins, Diggs, Schultz and Dell with Bobby Slowik back calling plays. I view Dell as low risk heading into 2024 despite the various injuries he’s dealt with. I’d prefer him as my WR3 as opposed to my WR1 or 2, which may be possible depending on your strategy with his ADP of WR26.
LOW RISK
Christian Watson: One of the most polarizing players in the NFL when healthy, Christian Watson was the 2nd round pick in 2022 by the Green Bay Packers. Despite playing in only 23 games, and only catching 69 passes, Watson already has caught 12 TDs, not including the 2 he rushed for in 2022. That’s 14 TDs in only 80 touches, or 1 TD for every 5.7 touches. INSANE. Watson has had a TON of injuries over the past 5 years, especially the last 3. His most concerning area of injury is his hamstring, as he’s suffered 5 different hamstring injuries over the past 3 years, likely all to the same right leg. This has cost him a total of 14 games.
Watson has only played in 23 of a possible 34 games, missing 11 games in the NFL, every single one due to a hamstring strain. Watson decided to take it upon himself to try to figure out exactly what was causing his recurrent hamstring strains. He went to University of Wisconsin, whom the NFL recently funded a hamstring research program, to further look into hamstring issues. They found a 20% strength imbalance between his right (injury prone) side and his left (healthy). Watson has reportedly worked to narrow the gap which is reportedly now around 8-10%, with a goal of 6%. This very well could go a long way to resolving his chronic (right) hamstring issues. I’d personally take it a step further but that’s a topic for a separate discussion. He’s also had at least one surgery on his knee, likely multiple, but he’s been able to play through these. Here’s the thing, there are not many WRs in the NFL being drafted after WR20 that have 10+ TD upside and the ability to finish in the top 15 in 2024. Christian Watson is one of them, IF he stays healthy. He has a super talented quarterback in Jordan Love throwing to him, and despite being in a loaded wide receiver room, Watson is the alpha in that group when healthy.
With his current ADP of WR44, the risk is baked into the price. I’d prefer taking Watson over Jordan Addison, Keon Coleman, Courtland Sutton and Curtis Samuel, all WRs going around him. His upside is league-winning, just understand he has the highest risk of any wide receiver in 2024. I’d prefer him as my WR3/flex as opposed to my WR2. Don’t be afraid to draft some Christian Watson in 2024, as he is one of my sleepers, but understand you’re playing with fire.
HIGH RISK
Davante Adams: Davante has always been able to stay healthy, as he hasn’t missed more than 4 games in a season in 10 NFL seasons. His most famous injury was a bad case of turf toe in 2019 that caused him to miss 4 games. Since then he’s played in 64 of a possible 67 games, missing 2 games in 2020 with a hamstring strain. Davante knows how to stay healthy. About to play in his age-31 season, his decline is coming eventually, but he may have several more good productive years. His rate-limiting factor in 2023 was his QB, as there was a significant downgrade from Derek Carr to Aidan O’Connell. Adams benefits from the deep ball, which Carr is very skilled at but O’Connell isn’t. The team added Gardner Minshew to the mix this year, so it will be interesting to see who ends up starting. Adding Brock Bowers should really help this offense. The primary offensive weapons will likely be Zamir White, Adams, Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker. Adams is currently being drafted as the WR12, and he’s likely to continue to get lots of targets (169, 180, 175 the last 3 years), but with Bowers expected to get a fairshare of targets (75-80), I have a tough time drafting Adams at that spot and would prefer him 5-6 WRs later as my WR2.
LOW RISK
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is entering his 5th NFL season and has steadily improved in each season. He’s been able to stay very healthy, only missing 4 games in his rookie season due to COVID and so soft tissue injuries, and then 1 game in 2023 with a sprain AC joint in his shoulder. He likely struggled for a couple more weeks with it but Aiyuk played admirably despite not getting a ton of targets. Aiyuk is super efficient, converting (only) 105 targets into 75 catches for over 1,340 yards and 7 TDs. For comparison the year before, he caught 3 more passes and barely eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards. He finished as the WR14 in PPR, a year after finishing as the WR15. As of this writing, Aiyuk is still in a heated contract dispute with the 49ers but I am going to write this from a perspective that he’s not leaving. I expect CMC to see a drop in overall volume this year, with Aiyuk getting a bump to 130-140 targets. That would propel Aiyuk into the top 8 WRs, possibly top 3 if everything goes perfect. Low injury risk.
Update: The saga continues with about 3 weeks remaining until Week 1. Aiyuk still hasn’t been traded or signed an extension with the 49ers. It feels as if he will return to the 49ers soon but without any playing time and limited time at camp, I have concerns about soft tissue injuries early in the season. Enough for me to avoid him this year.
LOW RISK
Chris Olave: Olave entered the league in 2022 as a high draft pick (11th pick overall) and while he has shown flashes of potential, I feel like he hasn’t put it all together yet. This might be his year, especially with Michael Thomas gone and Rashid Shaheed and A.T. Perry better fits as deep threats. Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill will account for some targets but it will really be Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave getting the bulk of the receiving work. Olave has struggled with various injuries over the past few years. He’s had 3 concussions, multiple hamstring strains, a toe injury and an ankle sprain. He’s only missed 3 total games over the past 2 years but I feel like he’s mostly been a disappointment. He needs to get in the endzone more, as he’s only had 9 TDs per season, but he’s had 257 total targets. My primary concern with Olave is that the Saints have the worst-ranked offensive line for 2024 according to PFF, and Olave is already dealing with a back injury in late July. The back injury could be nothing but I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, who struggles with the deep ball, and that offensive line scares the hell out of me. Add in Olave’s moderate injury risk, he has a high floor and massive upside to finish in the top 8, possibly top 5, if he can stay healthy and put it all together but I would prefer him as my WR2 than my WR1. Currently going as the WR11, I’d rather have Drake London or Nico Collins over Olave.
MODERATE RISK
Deebo Samuel: Deebo Samuel is one of the rare duel-threat WRs in the league. Unfortunately he’s had his fair share of injuries, predominantly soft tissue, mostly hamstring strain, high-ankle sprains and groin strains. He’s missed at least 1 game in all 5 seasons, missed 17 games in total and only played in 79% of possible games. Deebo has this ‘every other’ year thing going on, where he has fantastic seasons in odd years dating back to 2019. There’s no question he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands, and over the past 3 years he’s been used in both a rushing and receiving role. In 2023 he had 89 totals and 37 rushing attempts, combining for almost 1,100 yards and 12 TDs. He finished as the WR15 in 2023 despite missing 2 games due to injury. I view him as a moderate injury risk with soft tissue (hamstring) injuries concerning me the most. He’s currently being drafted as the WR12, but I would rather have Nico Collins (WR11) as well as several guys going after him like Jaylen Waddle and Mike Evans.
MODERATE RISK
Mike Evans: Mike Evans is one of the most consistent wide receivers to ever put on an NFL jersey. He has more 1,000+ receiving yard seasons than he does games missed from injuries. Despite being 30 years old, it doesn’t look like Evans has lost a step. He has been a top 15 WR in 7 out 10 years, talk about consistent! The most games missed in one season is 3, that was in 2019 due to a hamstring strain. This guy continues to play at an elite level while dealing with injuries. He’s a dawg as they say. Finishing as the WR7 in 2023, I expect the offense to be very similar and despite his current ADP of WR17, I’d happily take him over Brandon Aiyuk and Cooper Kupp. Low risk for injury based on his history. Lock in 75 catches for 1,050-1,250 yards and 10+ TDs.
LOW RISK
D.J. Moore: D.J. Moore was a monster in 2023 despite playing with subpar QB play. He had 136 targets, almost 100 catches (96) and over 1,350 yards receiving. He hasn’t missed a game in over 3 years and now gets a potentially generational quarterback throwing him the ball. Currently going as the WR22, it will be interesting to see how the target share will be divided between Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and the RBs. DJ Moore is elite against man coverage, so he’s always one catch away from taking it to the house. Low risk for injury but I do have some volume concerns, as I’m not sure another 130+ targets is realistic. Give me Keenan Allen over him in 2024.
LOW RISK
George Pickens: Pickens suffered a couple big injuries during his time in college, including an AC shoulder sprain that cost him 3 games, then an ACL tear during the spring practices leading up to his final season at Georgia. He impressively managed to return in just under 9 months, allowing him to play in the final 4 games of the season. Pickens has played in all 34 games as a pro, despite tweaking his hamstring early in 2023. Pickens has had to deal with awful QB play which has prevented him from truly excelling like the 5 star recruit he is. Despite getting 106 targets in 2023, he only caught 63 passes and scored 5 TDs. He finished as the WR30, and now gets an upgrade at quarterback in Russell Wilson (yes that’s an upgrade), who throws the 9th best deep ball in the NFL (69%), compared to Kenny Pickett who threw the 4th worst (61%). His only competition for targets is Jaylen Warren, TE Pat Freiermuth, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and rookie Roman Wilson. Low injury risk, currently priced as the WR27. He would make a nice WR2 with WR1 upside, and would be a guy I would target if I miss out on Amari Cooper.
LOW RISK
Nico Collins: Collins was a 3rd round pick out of the University of Michigan in 2021. He really struggled in his rookie season, suffering a shoulder injury that cost him 3 games early in the season. He was not fantasy relevant at any point in his rookie season. Then in 2022 he started to show more promise but struggled with injuries, missing a total of 7 games with groin and foot injuries. Finally in 2023 Collins put it all together, finishing as the WR12 with the help of CJ Stroud, despite missing 2 games due to a calf injury. Tank Dell and Nico Collins were fantastic together, but after Dell suffered a season-ending leg injury in Week 12, it was Collins who benefitted the most, having multiple 34+ fantasy point performances and leveraging 20.5 PPG, despite leaving one of the games early with a calf strain. Currently going as the WR12, in the same tier as Chris Olave and Drake London, and I would rather have Collins over those other two. It needs to be mentioned that Stefon Diggs is now on the roster and Tank Dell is healthy again. It will be interesting to see how the target share % will break down between those three, then adding in Dalton Schultz, John Metchie and Joe Mixon. Lots of mouths to feed. Finally it was announced that Collins is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. This came as a surprise to me, because to the public’s knowledge he did not suffer any shoulder injuries in 2023, so either he suffered this after the season ended, or this was an old injury (he missed 3 games in 2021 with a shoulder injury) he wanted to address. Either way I’m giving him a low risk score and I’m not overly concerned about this shoulder surgery.
LOW RISK
Cooper Kupp: A 3rd round pick in 2017 to the LA Rams, Kupp was a monster from 2019-2021 where he finished as the WR1 (2021) and WR5 (2019). The past 2 years Kupp has struggled to stay healthy, missing a total of 13 games due to a high-ankle sprain and hamstring issues. Now 31, Kupp’s underlying metrics are quite concerning. His targets dropped from 11.1 in 2021-22 to 7.9 in 2023-24 thanks to the emergence of Puka Nacua. His catch rate plummeted to a career low 62%, and 62% of his targets were between the line of scrimmage and 9 yards downfield, this was 37.9% in 2022. Furthermore, when Kupp lined up on the perimeter in 2023 he only caught 6 of 14 targets for 21 yards, a YPRR of 0.40, 3rd worst in the league.
Puka has emerged as the clear cut number one target for Stafford, with Kyren Williams pounding the rock and catching a number of passes out of the backfield. The Rams won’t have a reliable tight end in Tyler Higbee for most of the season (ACL), but they brought in Colby Parkinson to help with that. The Rams run the most 3-WR personnel in the league, so I expect Demarcus Robinson to get a lot of work, especially if Puka or Kupp were to miss time with injury. I don’t think Kupp completely smashes again in 2024, as I think those days are done, but he doesn’t need to, in order to justify his ADP of WR18. I view him as a moderate injury risk heading into 2024. If you look at the targets between him and Puka when both were healthy in 2023 the numbers are very close. I would rather be a year early than a year late, so I’m out on Kupp this year. I’d prefer several other players around him including Metcalf, Pittman Jr., Pickens and Zay Flowers over him. I personally feel that Kupp has some issues with healing, which will translate to him having difficulty staying on the field. If it wasn’t for the $20M that’s owed to him and his nearly $30M cap hit, he probably would have been cut.
MODERATE RISK
Malik Nabers: Malik Nabers is a BAD man. If not for generational prospect Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers would get even more attention that he truly deserves. Among draft WRs in 2023, Nabers was #1 in Yards/Route Run, PFF grade vs. Man coverage, PFF grade vs. Zone coverage and #2 in Missed Tackles Forced and Deep Catches. Drafted by the New York Giants with the 6th pick, Nabers has star written all over him. He has unreal burst for someone who is 6’0” and 200 lbs. He suffered 2 injuries throughout his college career that we know of, one of which was a left shoulder injury that impacted his 2021 season. Then he suffered a mild AC sprain of his right shoulder in early 2023. There were some rumblings pre-draft that one of his shoulders is potentially concerning, but the Giants must not have been overly concerned with his medicals if he went 6th overall. While I still have concerns that he has a chronic labral tear of his left shoulder, this is something that most elite WRs can play through if it is mild, see Nico Collins in 2023. If the team was super concerned he would have had offseason shoulder surgery. Our biggest concerns with him are the awful Giants offensive line as well as Daniel Jones, who is returning from an ACL tear. He should command targets immediately and has minimal competition for targets, especially with Darren Waller retiring. Wan’Dale Robinson should get the slot work, with Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt fighting for the scraps Nabers doesn’t get. He will likely be lined up against the team’s top CB, possibly double teams, so there are some concerns there. I love his talent, I’m just not a big fan of his situation and he’s currently being drafted as the WR21, which IMO is his ceiling unless everything goes perfect. I’m avoiding him at this price, but love him in dynasty. Low injury risk.
Update: Nabers suffered a minor ankle injury in camp last week but thankfully it was just a mild lateral ankle sprain. No concerns about this at all. Love his talent but this team is going to be BAD. In dynasty I’d reach for him, but in redraft there’s other guys I prefer in his range.
LOW RISK
Ladd McConkey: Andrew Ladd McConkey was an absolute monster in high school. As a senior he racked up over 3,000 all-purpose yards, while playing quarterback, running back, wide receiver as well as return specialist. Oh plus he played defensive back and punted. LOL. He also played on their basketball team and ran track. BEAST. For a rookie, McConkey has an enormous injury history, as he already has 8 different injury entries. He stated in an interview that he played with a broken bone each year during football season since 6th grade. He suffered a Jones foot fracture in his foot and then a fractured clavicle, both of which he tried to play through. His most concerning injury heading into the NFL is a back injury that Ian Rapoport stated is the reason that he dropped out of the first round. This is definitely something that resonates with me, and he is likely dealing with a bad herniated disk or spondylolisthesis, which is a fancy word for fracture of the back. McConkey played his entire junior season at Georgia averaging 15.9 yards per catch, catching 30 passes after the back injury, missing no more games due to the back. Obviously the Chargers weren’t scared off by the medicals, and at his current ADP of WR42, in between Christian Watson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 3 players that I like, he could very well could be the only WR available this late that should be the team’s WR1 and lead the team in targets and receptions. Remember that Justin Herbert’s top 2 targets from 2023, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, are both gone, and McConkey is there to reap the benefits. While we might not see Herbert throw the ball 600+ times like in the past years, McConkey should shine compared to Quentin Johnston, DJ Chark and will form a nice duo with Josh Palmer. Moderate injury risk given his history but I LOVE his potential and if there is any rookie WR that is going to pull a “Puka” in 2024, it’s Ladd McConkey. Don’t leave your draft without him, and I’m even willing to reach for him to prevent getting sniped.
Update: Between Justin Herbert’s annoying enough foot injury to hinder him most of the season, and potentially how bad this overall team is, I’m having doubts about McConkey. Add this to the fact that he’s been banged up with minor injuries already this season. I love his potential but he’s definitely a risky WR to draft.
MODERATE RISK
Rome Odunze: Odunze was a 4-star prospect coming out of high school, ranked as the 22nd best WR in the country. He played his college ball at the University of Washington and is one of the few that played all 4 years only to be drafted early in the 1st round (pick 9). Odunze has been able to avoid major injuries throughout his career and has only missed a total of 4 games, 3 of 4 of them were in 2021. During the 2023 season, he impressively played through a fractured rib on right side, which led to a punctured lung. Amazingly he only missed the bye week and played through the pain and discomfort. Tough dude. Odunze had an incredible 2023 season, catching 92 passes for over 1,600 yards and 13 TDs. He landed in Chicago along with rookie phenom Caleb Williams. There won’t be too much pressure on Odunze in his rookie season thanks to the Bears having two other elite WRs in D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. There were some rumblings that Odunze may help return kicks and punts, but we will have to see how that plays out. Injury history wise I’m not overly concerned as he is low injury risk, but I doubt I will have much of Odunze on my redraft teams as he’s quite expensive as the WR40. I’d prefer Diontae Johnson, who is going one pick after him, or Ladd McConkey who is going after Johnson. I think both of them have higher target floors than Odunze and should be their team’s WR1, whereas Odunze is likely the 3rd or 4th option when considering Cole Kmet. Super talented but hard to project much volume without an injury to Moore or Allen.
LOW RISK
Kendrick Bourne: Kendrick Bourne, entering his 8th NFL season has never really been a relevant fantasy player. His best season (2021) he finished as the WR34 with 55 catches for 800 yards and 5 TDs. Bourne tore his ACL right before Halloween and has a very good chance to return in Week 1 of the 2024 season. After resigning with the Patriots, Bourne will be about 10 months out from his surgery by Week 1, so he shouldn’t have any limitations but he is at increased risk for compensating injuries, but he’s not expected to get much volume, as he’s competing with Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, K.J. Osborn and Hunter Henry. Minimal upside, save yourself the headache and avoid him in 2024.
MODERATE RISK