At least inventory jumped a bit in the last month from a low of 191. Two years ago it was closer to 800. The number of distressed properties in Irvine is up to 320. Now given that only 231 homes are on the market, this does make a difference.”

3.2 Directory of CAI Credentialed Professionals: here

3.3 Tom Lawler on Housing in 2012 and 2013: here

1. Home Prices: While it seemed reasonably to expect a modest YOY gain in home prices (as measured by repeat-transactions HPIs), it appears as if the “actual” gain will come in well above the most optimistic of forecasters. “Reasons” included but are not limited to (1) much larger than expected declines in inventories, (2) substantial increases in investor purchases of SF homes, and (3) continued actions by monetary policymakers to engage in fiscal policy by buying MBS to push mortgage rates lower and thus encourage credit flows into a specific sector of the economy (housing).

2. Inventories: While a continued reduction in homes listed for sale seemed exceedingly likely in 2012, the magnitude of the drop clearly exceeded “consensus.” “Reasons” included but were not limited to (1) strong investor buying of SF homes and turning them into rental properties; and 2) a slower than consensus pace of completed foreclosures which, combined with strong demand for REO properties, resulted in a sharp drop in the inventory of REO for sale;

3. Investor Buying of SF Homes as Rental Properties: While investor buying of SF homes as rental properties began increasing significantly several years ago, the entrance of and/or increased activity by “big-money” institutional investors resulted in a substantial increase in such investor buying. Such activity was barely contemplated by “consensus” forecasters.

3. Completed Foreclosures: In 2011 the “robo-signing” scandal led to a significant slowdown in completed foreclosures in the latter part of that year. Many analysts had expected that once the infamous mortgage “settlement” was signed (in March 2012) that banks/servicers would shortly thereafter accelerate completed foreclosures. That didn’t happen; instead servicers spent much of 2012 focusing on compliance (including ending dual tracking); there was a resurgence in modification activity; and foreclosure timelines continued to increase (and in several states legislation was passed that effectively lengthened timelines in those states). As a result, 2012 was another low “foreclosure resolution” year.

4: Rental Vacancy Rates and Rents: While the decline in rental vacancy rates and increase in rents last year was not as much of a surprise as the drop in homes listed for sale and the increase in home prices, the RVR fell by more, and rents increased by more, than “consensus.”

5. Homeownership Rates: While there are no good, timely data on the US homeownership rate (the widely tracked HVS overstates the homeownership rate), available data combined with analysis of the systematic undercount of renters in CPS-based surveys, suggests that the US homeownership rate declined again in 2012 – probably to around 63.7%, compared to the 65.2% on April 1, 2010 suggested by the decennial Census results. (HVS showed a first-half 2010 homeownership rate of 67.0%). Reasons included a shift by householders on the benefits vs. costs of homeownership; what appears to have been a rebound in household growth of “younger” adults; tight mortgage underwriting; and an increase in householders with “troubled” credit.

Looking into 2013, reduced inventory levels, firmer home prices and rental rates, and a likely acceleration in household growth suggest that housing production should increase again in 2013. Moreover, unlike in 2010 and 2011 (when inventories remained elevated), such an increase would be a welcome result.

My “best guess” for housing production this year is as follows:

3.5 Process Servers in Gated Condominiums or Planned Communities: By Scott Carpenter on the 15th of January 2013, AZ

Senate Bill 1055 has been introduced by Senators Murphy and Pancrazi. If passed,SB1055 would prohibit condominium and planned communities from interfering with a duly appointed or certified process server. The introduced language states, “In attempting to serve or while serving process, a duly appointed or certified process server is authorized and privileged to: 1. Enter and remain lawfully on real property. 2. Enter unannounced and remain lawfully in a planned community or condominium association that is guarded or gated.”

Although the bill will initially attract the attention of communities that have access control gates, all condominiums and planned communities should pause and consider whether a law that interferes with the private property rights of associations is problematic for all communities.

Treese Notes: Check out

1. Florida: here “(7) A gated residential community, including a condominium association or a cooperative, shall grant unannounced entry into the community, including its common areas and common elements, to a person who is attempting to serve process on a defendant or witness who resides within or is known to be within the community.”

2. California: here “(a) Notwithstanding any other provision of law, any person shall be granted access to a gated community for a reasonable period of time for the purpose of performing lawful service of process or service of a subpoena, upon identifying to the guard the person or persons to be served, and upon displaying a current driver's license or other identification, and one of the following:
(1) A badge or other confirmation that the individual is acting in his or her capacity as a representative of a county sheriff or
marshal.
(2) Evidence of current registration as a process server pursuant to Chapter 16 (commencing with Section 22350) of Division 8 of the usiness and Professions Code.
(b) This section shall only apply to a gated community that is staffed at the time service of process is attempted by a guard or other security personnel assigned to control access to the community.

3.6 Shelter Creek Condominium - Electric Charging Stations: here “Campbell, California January 17, 2013. Shelter Creek Condominiums, San Mateo County’s largest MDU (Multi-dwelling Unit) community located in San Bruno, will unveil ChargePoint EV charging stations to its residents at a grand opening event on Saturday, January 19th, 2013 at 1:00 PM in the Shelter Creek parking lot A. The ChargePoint stations are installed in four locations throughout the 45-acre property and available for use by residents and their guests. Shelter Creek, a Manor Association Property, has more than 4,000 residents in the San Bruno location. Shelter Creek has partnered with Serramonte Nissan and Putnam Chevrolet to offer Friends and Family discounts for sales and leases of new electric vehicles to attendees of the grand opening event. San Bruno City Manager, Connie Jackson, will be in attendance for the ribbon cutting. “We are always looking for ways to conserve energy by following new trends,” said Ronnie Rosen, General Manager at Shelter Creek. “With more than 1,600 cars coming and going through our property daily we wanted to install these EV charging stations to accommodate new and future EV owners. Offering EV charging helps us to attract the highest quality residents, distinguish Shelter Creek Condominium community as a great place to live, offering the latest amenities and highlight our environmental efforts.””

3.7 BACOLITSAS v. 86th AND 3rd OWNER, LLC: here

Treese Notes: This an Interstate Land Sales Case that was argued before the Court in 2011 with the opinion below given on December 19, 2012. Excerpt next.

“This appeal provides us with an opportunity to clarify the requirements of the Interstate Land Sales Full Disclosure Act ("ILSA"), 15 U.S.C. §§ 1701-20, a statute that, while enacted more than forty years ago, has received little attention from the federal courts until recently. In basic terms, ILSA protects individual buyers or lessees who purchase or lease lots in large, uncompleted housing developments, including condominiums, by mandating that developers make certain disclosures. If a developer fails to provide these disclosures, ILSA permits buyers or lessees, under certain circumstances, to revoke their purchase or lease agreements within a designated period from the date of signing. 15 U.S.C. § 1703(d). As one of our sister circuits observed recently, it is this feature of ILSA that has made the statute "an increasingly popular means of channeling buyer's remorse into a legal defense to a breach of contract claim."Stein v. Paradigm Mirasol, LLC, 586 F.3d 849, 852 (11th Cir. 2009).

In the present case, Plaintiffs-Counter-Defendants-Appellees Vasilis Bacolitsas and Sofia Nikolaidou ("Plaintiffs") sought to avail themselves of § 1703(d)'s terms by bringing suit for revocation of a purchase agreement they executed with Defendant-Counter-Claimant-Appellant 86th & 3rd Owner, LLC and Defendant-Appellant Michael, Levitt & Rubinstein, LLC ("Defendants") for a luxury condominium unit in New York City, asserting that the agreement failed to comport with ILSA's disclosure requirements. Plaintiffs alleged, inter alia,that the purchase agreement was revocable because it did not contain "a description of the lot which makes such lot clearly identifiable and which is in a form acceptable for recording." 15 U.S.C. § 1703(d)(1). The district court granted summary judgment to Plaintiffs, concluding that because their purchase agreement was not recordable under state law, it did not comply with § 1703(d)(1) and was therefore subject to revocation. Addressing a question of first impression in this Court, we disagree and hold that § 1703(d)(1) requires the description and not the agreement itself be "in a form acceptable for recording" and that the description at issue in this case satisfies ILSA's requirements. We therefore REVERSE the district court's judgment and REMAND with instructions that the district court enter judgment for Defendants.2

3.6 Looking Back: Census - Units in Structure, 1940 - 2000: here

Treese Notes: Quoting below from the Census link. There was no graph in the link.

“The types of homes people in the United States live in have changed over the 60-year period from 1940 to 2000. However, the level of single-family detached homes has remained fairly consistent during that period, in the 60 percents. In 1990, it dropped slightly to 59 percent but rebounded to 60 percent in 2000. Single-family detached homes were at their highest level in 1960, making up more than 2-in-3 of the total housing inventory (see graph). Single-family attached houses (row houses and townhouses) comprised 5.6 percent of the inventory in 2000. Their share of the inventory was highest in 1940, at 7.6 percent. Apartment housing with 2 to 4 units in the building was at its highest level in 1950, when it made up almost one-fifth of the total housing stock. By 2000, it had dropped to less than one-tenth of the inventory. Units in larger apartment buildings of 5 or more units increased dramatically from 1960 (11 percent) to 1990 (18 percent). In 2000, they represented 17 percent of the housing stock. Mobile homes experienced a significant growth over the 60-year period. In 1940, the number was so small that they were not counted separately; instead they were included in the “Other” category with boats and tourist cabins. In 1950, mobile homes, alone, made up only 0.7 percent of the inventory and by 2000 had increased to 7.6 percent of the total housing stock.”

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

4. Seeing v. Reading

4.1 State Unemployment Rates, Current & Max for 2007 Recession: here

4.2 Consumer Sentiment Since Jan 1978: here

4.3 Year over Year Change in Economic Drivers: here

4.4 Manufacturing and Housing: here

4.5 Oregon Housing Starts: here

4.6 Housing Starts & Completions, 5+ Units Since Jan 1969: here

4.7 Housing Starts & Completions, 1 Unit Structures Since Jan 1969: here

4.8 Housing Starts Total & One Unit Structures Since Jan. 1968: here

4.9 Retail Sales Since Jan 1992: here

4.10 Industrial Production Since Jan 1967: here

4.11 Capacity Utilization Since Jan 1967: here

4.12 CoreLogic House Price Index Since 1976: here

4.13 CoreLogic House Price Index YoY Since Jan 2002: here

4.14 Has Evolution Passed You By Again: Check your family tree

5. Selected Papers & Issues - Hard Thinking

5.1 Management in America [Stanford, MIT, Census, January 2013, 38 pages]: here

The Census Bureau recently conducted a survey of management practices in over 30,000 plants across the US, the first large-scale survey of management in America. Analyzing these data reveals several striking results. First, more structured management practices are tightly linked to better performance: establishments adopting more structured practices for performance monitoring, target setting and incentives enjoy greater productivity and profitability, higher rates of innovation and faster employment growth. Second, there is a substantial dispersion of management practices across the establishments. We find that 18% of establishments have adopted at least 75% of these more structured management practices, while 27% of establishments adopted less than 50% of these. Third, more structured management practices are more likely to be found in establishments that export, who are larger (or are part of bigger firms), and have more educated employees. Establishments in the South and Midwest have more structured practices on average than those in the Northeast and West. Finally, we find adoption of structured management practices has increased between 2005 and 2010 for surviving establishments, particularly for those practices involving data collection and analysis

Treese Short Version: I found this interesting insofar as “structured management services” (however defined) have been around for some time --- for instance the Baldrige Program here has been around for 25 years. Things move slowly.

5.2 When Disabled Homeowners Lose Their Homes for a Pittance, Barry Sullivan, Cooney & Conway Chair and Professor of Law, Loyola University Chicago School of Law, 2009, 35 pages. here

Abstract: This article discusses in depth the problem of homeowners with cognitive disabilities who lose their homes because of the failure to pay a very small property tax bill. The article discusses the nature and extent of the problem, delinquent property tax procedures in Illinois and elsewhere, and the applicable due process jurisprudence. It then traces the history of the protracted, but ultimately unsuccessful litigation seeking recovery of Ms. Lowe's house, as it proceeded through the Illinois courts. The article concludes with a discussion of the inadequacy of remedies, such as indemnity funds, for disabled homeowners, and the legislative initiatives that the Office of the Public Guardian of Cook County, Illinois has proposed to the Illinois legislature to remedy the situation.

Treese Short Version: This is dated, but I always have found the comparison between possible small dollar delinquent assessments and similarly small dollar delinquent property taxes to also be interesting. I don’t think this lets associations off the hook for such behavior, but it does provide some perspective. See this July 2012 CNN article here and for the full report from the National Consumer Law Center here

6. The Agencies & Others: FHFA, Freddie, Fannie, VA, FHA, HUD, Ginnie Mae, SBA, FDIC, OCC, FEMA, SEC, Federal Reserve, BLS, UFOs, Rating Agencies, The Locals and Others

6.1 Ending Too Big To Fail, Richard Fisher, Dallas Federal Reserve, January 16, 2013: here “Tonight, I wish to speak to a different kind of repression—the injustice of being held hostage to large financial institutions considered “too big to fail,” or TBTF for short. I submit that these institutions, as a result of their privileged status, exact an unfair tax upon the American people. Moreover, they interfere with the transmission of monetary policy and inhibit the advancement of our nation’s economic prosperity. I have spoken of this for several years, beginning with a speech on the “Pathology of Too-Big-to-Fail” in July 2009.[1] My colleague, Harvey Rosenblum—a highly respected economist and the Dallas Fed’s director of research—and I and our staff have written about it extensively. Tomorrow, we will issue a special report that further elucidates our proposal for dealing with the pathology of TBTF. It also addresses the superior relative performance of community banks during the recent crisis and how they are being victimized by excessive regulation that stems from responses to the sins of their behemoth counterparts. I urge all of you to read that report.[2].........Let me define what we mean when we speak of TBTF. The Dallas Fed’s definition is financial firms whose owners, managers and customers believe themselves to be exempt from the processes of bankruptcy and creative destruction. Such firms capture the financial upside of their actions but largely avoid payment—bankruptcy and closure—for actions gone wrong, in violation of one of the basic tenets of market capitalism (at least as it is supposed to be practiced in the United States). Such firms enjoy subsidies relative to their non-TBTF competitors. They are thus more likely to take greater risks in search of profits, protected by the presumption that bankruptcy is a highly unlikely outcome.”

7. Risk Management & Insurance

7.1 Mandatory Renters Insurance on the Rise here [Excerpt next]

Smoke pouring from broken windows. Fire trucks in the parking lot. It’s frightening to experience a fire at your property. Even if no one’s hurt, the cost to repair the damage from a simple fire from a resident’s stove can easily top $50,000. And if the resident responsible for the fire doesn’t carry renter's insurance, the nightmare may just be beginning. You might think your property insurance policy would cover the cost of damage to your apartment community. But insurance companies are getting tougher. Rising deductibles can often reach $25,000, or even $100,000. “Property insurance companies don’t want to get into these attritional losses,” says Steven Sachs of the Willis Group, an insurance brokerage firm based in New York City.

Most apartment leases hold tenants responsible for the full cost of any damage they cause to their residence, whether they have renter's insurance or not. It can be difficult, if not impossible, however, for managers to collect on that obligation. After all, few renters have $50,000 or more sitting in their bank accounts. Managers can offer installment plans, true, but such an

approach is often unrealistic. “It’s difficult to create an installment plan that exceeds the lease term,” says Scott Woodward, risk manager for Dallas-based Trammell Crow Residential (TCR). If the resident moves out in the middle of the night, the property manager can obtain a lien, but the odds of ever collecting are slim: “One in 50,” he says.

Leading the Horse to Water

All this turmoil can be avoided if the resident has an insurance policy covering both the loss of his or her personal property and the damage to the building. Unfortunately, the landlord’s property insurance usually won’t cover damages caused by residents. Regulations also prevent property managers from buying insurance on behalf of renters and billing them for it. Today, 84 percent of apartment companies say they require residents to buy renter's insurance, according to the National Multi Housing Council’s 2012 Apartment Cost Risk Survey. That’s up sharply from 62 percent in 2011. (Fifty-five leading apartment companies that among them operate more than a million apartment units responded to the 2012 survey.) But the battle isn’t won yet. Of the respondents that said they require renter's insurance, 40 percent don’t require it at all of their properties. Managers at some communities worry that requiring prospective residents to pay an extra $10 to $15 a month in insurance may drive them to the competition.

Treese Notes: I have published on this topic before. Is what's good for the landlord/renter also good for the association/owner. Some communities have started to require an HO-6 or its equivalent from owners.

7.2 FEMA Higher Education Statistics: here

College and University News:

v Hi Ed Statistical Update for January 2013:

· Emergency Management Higher Education Programs – 260

o 66 - Certificate, Diploma, Focus-Area, Minor in EM Collegiate Programs

o 50 - Schools Offer Associate Degree Programs

o 48 - Schools Offer Bachelor Degree Programs

o 87 - Schools with Master-Level/Concentrations/Tracks/Specializations/Emphasis

Areas/Degrees

o 9 - Schools Offer Doctoral-Level Programs

· 131 - U.S. Homeland Security/Defense and Terrorism Hi Ed Programs

· 16 - U.S. International Disaster Relief/Humanitarian Assistance Programs

· 31 - Public Health, Medical and Related Program

· 29 - Listing of Related Programs

7.3 Massachusetts Condominiums & Apartments --- No Sprinklers: here “Thousands of condominium and apartment complexes built across Greater Lowell during a boom in the 1960s and 1970s lack sprinklers because they have received exemptions from the state building code. Such an exemption could have contributed to two deaths a week ago at a complex on Littleton Road in Chelmsford, officials said. Woodcrest Condominiums was not required to have sprinklers, and fire officials have said sprinklers could have saved the lives of Susan Astle, 67, and Paul Deslauriers, 77, a couple who lived on the third floor of their 24-unit building. Five others were injured in the fire, including the couple's two young grandchildren.

"We very possibly or probably would have seen a different outcome," state Fire Marshal Stephen Coan said. The fire was ruled accidental.........

There's no debate that sprinklers are the "gold standard" in preventing fire deaths, said Watertown Fire Chief Mario Orangio, president of the state chiefs association. "I've seen the value of it," he said. Coan, the fire marshal, compared home sprinklers to "having a firefighter living in your house 24 hours a day." Mass. exempts key rule. Massachusetts has adopted what is known as the international building code, but with one exception, fire officials said: a requirement that one- and two-family homes be equipped with sprinklers. Opposition to the comprehensive requirement has been mainly from home-builders, according to the fire chiefs association.

The National Fire Protection Association estimates installing sprinklers at $1.61 per square foot. The average American home completed in 2011 was 2,480 square feet, according to the U.S. Census, making the cost just short of $4,000. But major home-insurance companies offer a discounted rate for those homes, Keith said. A number of trends make today's homes more dangerous in the event of fires, experts said. Furniture is more likely to be made of synthetic or composite materials that burn faster and hotter than wood, and they can give off toxic gases when they burn. Homes are often now built with more lightweight material that also burns faster.

7.4 Florida & HO-6 Insurance Requirements [Joe Adams]: here “Generally speaking, the condominium association has the legal obligation to maintain insurance on all of the condominium improvements, both inside and outside the unit, with some exceptions. The statute expressly excludes from the association’s insurance responsibility “all personal property within the unit or limited common elements, and floor, wall, and ceiling coverings, electrical fixtures, appliances, water heaters, water filters, built-in cabinets and countertops, and window treatments, including curtains, drapes, blinds, hardware, and similar window treatment components, or replacements of any of the foregoing which are located within the boundaries of the unit and serve only such unit. Such property and any insurance thereupon is the responsibility of the unit owner.” While the components listed in the statute are the owner’s insurance responsibilities, there is no express obligation in the Statute that an owner carry insurance. There used to be a requirement in the Florida Condominium Act which required unit owners to carry insurance, which in the industry is usually referred to as “HO-6” coverage. However, that provision was amended out of the statute in 2010. It is possible that your condominium documents require owners to carry insurance. It is not uncommon to see provisions in condominium association documents that state the owners must carry insurance on their unit. Further, some documents go on to state that in the event an owner fails to carry insurance, the association has the ability to force place the insurance and seek to collect the cost from the owner. In my opinion, such a provision is enforceable.

8. Energy, Health, Environment, Technology

8.1 Energy

8.1.1 Energy Ratings in Older Buildings: here “A December article in The New York Times reported the discovery that older structures typically outperform new ones in conserving energy. While that may not come as a surprise to many architects—who know that historic buildings typically have thicker walls and smaller aperture sizes—the announcement apparently baffled many Manhattan-based building owners and developers. Gerard Schumm, RFR Realty executive vice president and owner of the Seagram Building, claimed to have been "shocked" to find that his modern icon scored a lowly 3 on the 100-point Energy Star scale. And what of the 7 World Trade Center, a newly constructed, gold LEED-rated building? It received a 74—not even clearing the benchmark of 75 established for high-efficiency buildings by the federal program. Fans of the famed Chrysler and Empire State Buildings, however, will be happy to note that these landmarks scored 84 and 80, respectively, due to recent mechanical and envelope upgrades (in addition to their more-conservative approaches to glazing).”

Treese Notes: For the referenced NY Times article here

8.1.2 Marginal Lands - Alternative Energy: here “In the current issue of Nature, a team of researchers led by Michigan State University shows that marginal lands represent a huge untapped resource to grow mixed species cellulosic biomass, plants grown specifically for fuel production, which could annually produce up to 5.5 billion gallons of ethanol in the Midwest alone. "Understanding the environmental impact of widespread biofuel production is a major unanswered question both in the U.S. and worldwide," said Ilya Gelfand, lead author and MSU postdoctoral researcher. "We estimate that using marginal lands for growing cellulosic biomass crops could provide up to 215 gallons of ethanol per acre with substantial greenhouse gas mitigation."”

8.1.3 Electricity Consumer Engagement Companies: here “Visit the website of Opower and your eye will be drawn to a counter in the corner, its digits ticking ever higher. The counter represents energy that the company says its customers have saved after it provided them data on electricity usage and employed behavioral science to change their consumption patterns. As of this writing, the counter is climbing past 1.62 billion kilowatt-hours. Virginia-based Opower is just one of a growing number of so-called electricity consumer engagement companies around the U.S. that have sprung up in recent years with the aim of helping customers reduce their electricity use, primarily by analyzing their current consumption and finding the easy fixes. These companies are mixing in data from the rapid deployment of smart meters with behavioral science to try and answer a key question: How can we get people to care? The central idea is that by showing people how much electricity they use, when they use it, and what their neighbors and peers use, consumers can be driven to change.”

8.2 Health/Aging

8.2.1 Health Diagnosis via the Internet: here “Thirty-five percent of U.S. adults say that at one time or another they have gone online specifically to try to figure out what medical condition they or someone else might have. These findings come from a national survey by the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project. Throughout this report, we call those who searched for answers on the internet "online diagnosers." When asked if the information found online led them to think they needed the attention of a medical professional, 46% of online diagnosers say that was the case. Thirty-eight percent of online diagnosers say it was something they could take care of at home and 11% say it was both or in-between.

When we asked respondents about the accuracy of their initial diagnosis, they reported:

41% of online diagnosers say a medical professional confirmed their diagnosis. An additional 2% say a medical professional partially confirmed it.
35% say they did not visit a clinician to get a professional opinion.
18% say they consulted a medical professional and the clinician either did not agree or offered a different opinion about the condition.
1% say their conversation with a clinician was inconclusive.

Women are more likely than men to go online to figure out a possible diagnosis. Other groups that have a high likelihood of doing so include younger people, white adults, those who live in households earning $75,000 or more, and those with a college degree or advanced degrees.”

8.2.2 Sleeping, Gratitude & Prosocial Behavior: here Social psychologists are increasingly finding that "prosocial" behavior -- including expressing gratitude and giving to others -- is key to our psychological well-being. Even how we choose to spend our money on purchases affects our health and happiness. And children develop specific ways to help others from a very young age. Gordon and other researchers will be presenting some of these latest findings at the Society for Personality and Social Psychology (SPSP) annual meeting January 19 in New Orleans. A large body of research has documented that people who experience gratitude are happier and healthier. In three new studies, Gordon and Serena Chen, also of the the University of California, Berkeley, explored how poor sleep affects people's feelings of gratitude.”

8.3 Environment/Green

8.3.1 TRI (Toxic Release Inventory) Analysis, 2011: here “The TRI National Analysis is an annual report that provides EPA's analysis and interpretation of the most recent TRI data. It includes information about toxic chemical releases to the environment from facilities that report to the TRI Program. It also includes information about how toxic chemicals are managed through recycling, treatment and energy recovery, and how facilities are working to reduce the amount of toxic chemicals generated and released.”

8.3.2 Details on Volcanic Activity Over 1.8 Million Years: here “Details of around 2,000 major volcanic eruptions which occurred over the last 1.8 million years have been made available in a new open access database, complied by scientists at the University of Bristol with colleagues from the UK, US, Colombia and Japan.”

8 .4 General Science, Technology & IT

8.4.1 U.S. App Stats from App Annie: here

8.4.2 Ten Stats That Show The Post PC Age: here [Excerpt next]

“Anyone who has been working in digital communications for a while will know that every year since at least 2007 was meant to be the 'year of mobile.'

Arguably every year has been the year of the mobile when you look back at the strides made on an annual basis.

But for 2013, a better way of phrasing it, may be to talk about the year of the post PC world. Here are 10 stats to underpin that point:

1 – As of 2012, PCs no longer consume the majority of the world's memory chip supply, having dropped to under 50% for the the first time ever in Q2 2012.

2 – According to IDC, sales of desktops and laptops fell by 2.6% between 2011 and 2012, while the number of smartphones and tablets sold jumped by half.

3 – By 2015 there will be more tablets than PCs in the US.”

8.4.3 Talking to Your Browser to Compose Email - Google Chrome: here “Using your voice to search on your computer or phone is handy, but there’s so much more you can do with voice commands. Imagine if you could dictate documents, have a freestyle rap battle, or control game characters with your browser using only your voice. With today’s Chrome Beta release, this future is closer than you think. With the inclusion of the Web Speech API for developers, users can start enjoying new, interactive experiences with web apps, like in this demo where you can compose an email by speaking. With this new JavaScript API, developers can integrate speech recognition into their web apps. So, in the near future you’ll be able to talk apps into doing all sorts of things.”

9. Other Countries

9.1 Brookings/World Bank - U.S. Foreign Policy Briefing Book, 119 pages: here [Excerpt]

Recommendations: How then to take advantage of this plastic moment to mold the changing global order to best serve the United States and humankind? We believe that in the next four years you will have a unique opportunity to shape a multilateral global order that will continue to reflect American liberal values and progressive ideals. This will require your sustained attention, personal engagement, and direction of the national security agencies of the U.S. government. The reward could be a transformational and lasting impact on the international system, which will redound to the benefit of future generations. In the security realm, your primary “big bet” must be to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapons capability. It is hard to imagine a bigger blow to the international security order than the collapse of the nonproliferation regime that would follow Iran’s successful acquisition of nuclear weapons.

9.2 German Growth Goes Negative: here “It is good to be Angela Merkel. Growth in Germany goes sharply negative in the last quarter of 2012 and press reports emphasize how sound the German economy is because it is a net exporter. This article analyses how the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times presented the news about Germany’s economy. I show that the presentation reveals more about the pathologies of our major media than about the pathologies of Germany and the Eurozone.”

9. 3 Low Income Finance in Slum Upgrading: here ““More than a billion people—one-sixth of humanity—live in slums, according to UN-HABITAT. In 30 years, that figure could rise to nearly a third. The scourge of urban slums has long plagued India’s major cities. In Mumbai alone, 6 million people are slum-dwellers. In the last few years, the policy landscape for urban renewal, slum upgrading, and affordable housing has changed markedly, funded by governments partnering with major non-governmental organizations (NGOs), banks, developers, and foundations. This study, financed by United States Agency for International Development, was undertaken on behalf of the National Housing Bank and the Society for the Promotion of Area Resource Centres, a leading NGO addressing housing for slum dwellers. To improve low-income housing worldwide, we recommend increased public/private cooperation among banks, NGOs, and the microfinance industry. Together they can develop microfinance for housing, enhance credit in slum upgrading finance, distribute public subsidies cost-effectively, and start and support programs to generate savings and income in slums.””

9.4 Eurostat 2009 - Housing Conditions: here [Formatting mine, table is an excerpt]

“In the EU27, housing conditions differ considerably between Member States. These differences can be seen both in the type of housing in which people live and in the housing problems they encounter. On average in the EU27 in 2009:

42% of the population lived in a flat,
34% in a detached house and
23% in a semi-detached or terraced house .
Of the EU27 population, 18% lived in an overcrowded dwelling ,
while 16% lived in a dwelling where a leaking roof or damp were perceived as a problem,
7% considered their dwelling to be too dark,
4% had no indoor flushing toilet and
3% no bath or shower.

9.5 World Bank - Global Economic Prospects: here “Developing countries, where growth is 1-2 percentage points below what it was during the pre-crisis period, have been affected by the weakness in high-income countries. To regain pre-crisis growth rates, they will need to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies rather than demand stimulus. Although the major risks to the global economy are similar to those of a year ago, the likelihood that they will materialize has diminished, as has the magnitude of estimated impacts should these events occur. Major downside risks include the loss of access to capital markets by vulnerable Euro Area countries, lack of agreement on U.S. fiscal policy and the debt ceiling, and commodity price shocks. In an environment of slow growth and continued volatility, a steady hand is required in developing countries to avoid pro-cyclical policy and to rebuild macroeconomic buffers so that authorities can react in the case of new external or domestic shocks.”

9.6 Mexico City --- Bikes & Buses, Goes from Commuter Hell to Paradise: here “Bicycles, pedestrian-friendly plazas and walkways, new bus lines, and parking meters are combining to transform parts of Mexico City from a traffic nightmare to a commuter's paradise. The Mexican capital, one of the world's most populated urban areas, has captured this year's Sustainable Transport Award, the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) announced Tuesday. As recently as late 2011, Mexico City commuters reported enduring the most painful commute among respondents to an IBM survey. Based on factors such as roadway traffic, stress levels, and commute times, the city scored worse than 19 cities, including Beijing, China, and Nairobi, Kenya. Mexico City has seen its roadways swell beyond capacity to more than four million vehicles, which are owned, increasingly, by a growing middle class. (See related photos: "Twelve Car-Free City Zones")

10. Catching Some Other Topics

10.1 US National Gallery of Art Creates Open Access Policy: here “With the launch of NGA Images, the National Gallery of Art implements an open access policy for digital images of works of art that the Gallery believes to be in the public domain. Images of these works are now available free of charge for any use, commercial or non-commercial. Users do not need to contact the Gallery for authorization to use these images. They are available for download at the NGA Images website (images.nga.gov). See Policy Details below for specific instructions and notes for users.”

10.2 U.S. Prisoners in 2011, 34 pages: here

10.3 Changing Faces - USA Today Article: here

If Rip van Winkle had slipped into his deep sleep 20 years ago and awakened today, he would have missed a stunning American revolution — a demographic one.

The USA now is:

• Led by a biracial president who will be sworn in Monday for a second term.

• More crowded (88 million more people).

• More diverse (Hispanics have surpassed blacks as the largest minority).

• More urban (more than 80% live in or near cities).

• More settled in the Sun Belt (growth in the South and West accounted for 85% of the gains in the last decade).

Van Winkle probably would be even more slack-jawed at the cultural upheaval before his eyes.

There are “childless cities” and even more childless neighborhoods because people are having fewer babies.

There are more single people. The median age of marriage is at a new high (28.6 for men and 26.6 for women). More people are living alone or with unmarried partners, and less than half of households are traditional husband-and-wife arrangements.

Treese Notes: The article contains an interactive set of maps which are interesting.

10.4 Can Lawyers Stay in the Driver’s Seat? [University of Chicago School of Law, January 16, 2013, 46 pages] here

“The law firm business is thriving, despite significant pain in the legal sector as changes take place. The continuing success of Big Law is in part because of its ability to adjust quickly to changes in demand by hiring and firing staff. But as Larry Ribstein saw, big changes nevertheless loom on the horizon. These changes will likely be driven by a series of specialized service providers who compete with law firms from a lower price point as Benjamin Barton points out in his article in this volume. If history is a guide, cheaper alternatives will evolve into higher-quality alternatives, at which point the law firms most invested in the status quo are likely to suffer greatly. While the significance of this disruption is often viewed in terms of how it will affect lawyers, in fact it should be assessed mainly from the perspective of consumers and society: does the quality of legal services rise or fall at any given price point?

While this is the correct question from a social standpoint, a related question of immediate interest to lawyers is this: will lawyers still be “in the driver’s seat” of the legal sector when the dust settles? Or will they cede their leadership in the way that architects ceded leadership in the construction sector? Architects were once clearly at the top of the food chain in the building sector, but that is no longer the case. Developers and general contractors have a great deal more power and, it must be said, make far more money. Will traditional law firms cede control of major legal projects in the same way?

This is a radical question – but we believe it is not frivolous. Lawyers don’t generally have sophisticated procurement, project management and commercial skills. These skills are important for managing complex legal matters, and there is a large and growing class of non-traditional legal service providers who are cultivating those skills. It could turn out to be more efficient for traditional law firms to focus on what they do best, which is far less than the work of managing every aspect of a legal matter – just as the work of an architect is much less than managing an entire building project. Architects supply a key intellectual input to a building project. By the same token, law firms could end up supplying a key intellectual input to a legal matter. As Bill Henderson points out in his article in this volume, there are cultural and practical barriers to law firms – as currently structured – changing their model to adapt to the market. At a minimum, the traditional law firm model faces stiff competition in the decades to come. More radically, law firms may find themselves sidelined from some of the most important aspects of legal representations.

Yet if law firms cede their traditional leadership role, effects on their clients and society will not necessarily be positive overall. Because of this, we believe it is important to consider the implications of these changes on the education, licensing, and regulation of lawyers. The traditional law firm’s ability to avoid the fate of other commoditized professionals will depend in part on how lawyers approach the content of their education, the design of their licensure system, and the regulation of their industry.”

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“Using statistics to your benefit”

Clifford J. Treese

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