2016 AO/NAO Anomaly Forecast

(Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation)

Forecast produced on the basis of the heliocentric planetary ordering of solar variability.

Provisional First Draft, 19 February 2016.

Current ocean and atmospheric patterns are favouring deeper negative AO than NAO, so the following forecast period times are with respect primarily to the AO for the remainder of the winter season and early Spring.

February, AO turning strongly towards negative in the last third of the month.

March starting strongly negative, and with much of the month being negative, possibly worse from around the 22nd. AO begins a positive phase in the last couple of days of the month.

April, starting fairly strongly positive, then turning negative around mid month.

A possible slightly positive week from around the 23/24th, then turning negative again from around the 29/30th.

May, generally negative, with deeper negative episodes from around the 10th and 23rd.

June, turning positive fairly strongly from the start of the month, weakening from around mid month, then a positive burst for around a week from around the solstice.

July, starts negative, and turning positive through week 2, the second half of the month is likely to be tending negative.

August, starts with the best positive AO/NAO period of this NH summer, weakening from mid month, and shifting more strongly negative from around the 24/24th.

September, tending mostly negative for the first 3 weeks, with the remainder weakly positive.

October, starting weakly positive, and turning more strongly positive from around mid month.

November, briefly turning negative for week 1, followed by strong positive bursts from around the 9th and 24th.

December, starting fairly positive, with an additional strong positive bursts from the 6/7th, 12/13th and 21st.

Subject to revision.

© Ulric Alexander Lyons.