Earthquake Forecasting Model Alerts/Results

All hits must be called-out as being on-alert on the very-last alert map posted before the event. Hit periods have a green background, misses are noted in red. Everything is verifiable- click the links. ‘Fault Cover’ column shows Ring of Fire / Active Global Faults w/M6+ events in last 5 years.

As of the latest earthquake, the model has correctly identified the location of 31 of 56 (55.4%) M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes, and 5 of 7 (71.4%) M7+ earthquakes, using ~14.4% / 9.2% coverage (ring of fire / world) of active faults.

See statistics chart on QuakeWatch.net for a summary. Links are to timestamped forecasts posted on Twitter/The Disaster Prediction App. Alert maps show potential maximum magnitude forecast (not predictions of events to occur); if a colored alert exists, it is within our top areas to watch- the color is what determines the expected magnitude.

*All Days based on UTC

*DATE (UTC)

MAP LINKS

~Fault Cover

Notes, Hits, Misses.

Aug.20.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 6%

Aug.19.2017

Click Here

12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Aug.18.2018

Click Here

8% / 4%

Miss: M6.4 Fiji [500km deep]

Aug.17.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

Miss : M6.6 Atlantic Ocean

Aug.16.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Aug.15.2017

Click Here

12% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Aug.14.2017

Click Here 2 3

12% / 6%

No hits or misses. M6.0 struck the red alert in Samoa but the earthquake was downgraded and cannot count for the model.

Aug.13.2017

Click Here

15% / 8%

Miss: M6.4 Sumatra

Aug.12.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.11.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

Miss: M6.2 Philippines

Aug.10.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Aug.9.2017

Click Here

15% / 7%

No hits or misses.

IMPORTANT

UPDATE

Watch a video about this update here.

Before/After the 100-day mark: 25 for 30 / 6 for 22

On the 100th day began the longest streak of days without a M7 event in more than 50 years. At that time, the correlation between pre-seismic signals and the eventual larger earthquakes has virtually disappeared. The earthquake drought cannot last forever, and eventually larger rumbles will become more common, but we have truly witnessed a rare and unusually unique event in 2017’s seismic record. During similar droughts in the past, correlation seems to have also waned to ~30% of its normal value. It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming months. [Note: In the first 100 days we had 30 M6+ events, it has been almost 200 days since then and there have been only 22.]

Aug.8.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

Misses: M6.5, M6.3 China. It must be noted that earthquakes in China follow no forecastable pattern with foreshocks. Not only were there no foreshocks to these events, but the M7.9 that struck the region in 2008 had no foreshocks, and indeed nothing in M5 range for 35 days beforehand.

Aug.7.2017

Click Here

12% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Aug.6.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.5.2017

Click Here

10% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.4.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.3.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Aug.2.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses. Mt. Sinabung had a large eruption in the Indonesian Red Alert. While not as common, and not part of the model statistics, we have noted that the larger Indonesian/Japanese volcanic eruptions are falling under similar seismic alerts.

Aug.1.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.31.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Jul.30.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.29.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 10%

No hits or misses. A semi-rare M5.1 struck the California coastline in an area on alert. It was ‘significant’ but failed to hit the M6 threshold and will not count for the model statistics.

Jul.28.2017

Click Here

10% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.27.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Jul.26.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.25.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Jul.24.2017

Click Here

12% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Jul.23.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Jul.22.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Jul.21.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Jul.20.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

Miss: M6.7 in Turkey struck a yellow-alert zone. We missed the magnitude by 0.4

Jul.19.2017

Click Here 2 3 4

12% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.18.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

M6.4 Peru [Before first map posted, yesterday’s map applies- Jul.17.2017]

Jul.17.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

 Miss: M7.7 in Russia

Jul.16.2017

Click Here

10% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Jul.15.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Jul.14.2017

Click Here

12% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.13.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 7%

Miss: M6.4 Papua New Guinea. Earthquake struck while map was being posted, then earthquake reported to world 18 minutes later. This is the first time an alert map has been posted during an earthquake.

Jul.12.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 9%

No hits or misses

Jul.11.2017

Click Here

12% / 6%

Miss: M6.6 New Zealand [1st map applies]

Jul.10.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jul.9.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jul.8.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 5%

No hits or misses

Jul.7.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jul.6.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.5 Philippines [1st map applies]

Jul.5.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jul.4.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jul.3.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jul.2.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jul.1.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.30.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses. A M6.0 struck Ecuador (#2 map) but was not significant.

Jun.29.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jun.28.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 15%

No hits or misses. Two non-significant M6.0s struck New Zealand.

Jun.27.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.26.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.25.2017

Click Here 2

8% / 10%

No hits or misses. A non-significant M6.2 struck about 40km beneath Tonga/Fiji area. This region is used to this size rumble, and it takes about an M6.3 within 15km of the crust to become significant (based on observing history).

Jun.24.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.23.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.22.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

M6.8 in Guatemala - For the first time, it is a hairline judgement call as to whether this event is within the #2 map red alert. However, since it is in the exact location of the larger M6.9 eight days ago (see Jun.14 row), it is unquestionably an aftershock (not part of the model statistics). It DOES bring into question the magnitude downgrade of the initial shock, as it was listed well above M7.0 and was later downgraded.

Jun.21.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Jun.20.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.19.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 7%

No hits or misses

Jun.18.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses

Jun.17.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

No hits or misses. A non-significant M6.1 struck Fiji at blot echo depths - which keeps-alive the N.Oceania red star due to a concurrent earthspot nearby.

Jun.16.2017

Click Here note 2

10% / 6%

No hits or misses

Jun.15.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.14.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 15%

M6.9 in Guatemala After numerous Blot Echoes, this one struck at Blot Echo depth itself, but was felt across a wide portion of central america, including (by about 88 miles) a tiny red alert on the first map.

Jun.13.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jun.12.2017

Click Here

10% / 10%

Miss: M6.3 Greece

Jun.11.2017

Click Here 2 3 4

10% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.10.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.9.2017

Click Here 2

8% / 5%

No hits or misses

Jun.8.2017

Click Here 2

8% / 4%

No hits or misses

Jun.7.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.6.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.5.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.4.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.3.2017

Click Here

18% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.2.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 9%

Miss: M6.8 in Alaska

Jun.1.2017

Click Here

18% / 15%

No hits or misses

May.31.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 15%

No hits or misses

May.30.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.29.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.8 in Indonesia

May.28.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses. Major earthquake drought in progress - 2nd one of the year so far.

May.27.2017

Click Here

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.26.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

May.25.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 6%

No hits or misses

May.24.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.23.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.22.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

May.21.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 12%

No hits or misses

May.20.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.19.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

May.18.2017

Click Here 2 3

5% / 8%

No hits or misses

May.17.2017

Click Here

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.16.2017

Click Here 2 3

8% / 5%

No hits or misses

May.15.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 15%

Miss: M6.2 in Papua New Guinea. This miss will be interesting to review in hindsight, given the extra Blot Echoes preceding it, noted here. While consideration was clearly moving toward that zone, no new map was posted today before the event occurred and it is a miss for personal stats tracked here. For those looking into the science, this is well within the distance migration potential for this region of the world - paper available QuakeWatch.net

May.14.2017

Click Here 2 3

18% / 10%

No hits or misses.

May.13.2017

Click Here 2 3

18% / 15%

A M5.8 (significant) struck the middle east red alert in the 2nd map. It will not count for the statistics because of its magnitude. Dead/Injured - 2/200+

May.12.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

M6.2 in El Salvador [This event’s ‘affected’ area hit two different red line alerts, was much broader than one would ever expect from a magnitude 6.2*, and is the first time two red lines have ever been hit by the same earthquake. This event struck as earthspot Adrian spun nearby, just as their last one (M6.9 in November 2016) struck with Hurricane Otto overhead. Both are called “Earthspot Quakes” due to their strong GEC(-) setup after having deep earthquakes (Blot Echoes) showing buildup (+) below.

May.11.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

May.10.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 8%

Miss: M6.5 in S. Atlantic - The Blot echo setting the would-be alert occurred 85 minutes prior to this larger event. While our personal efforts did not get the alert up in time, the automated systems from 9Rese over at QuakeWatch.net did have it in their alerts.

May.9.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

M6.8 in Vanuatu - [1st map applies] Large event (and a Blot echo in its own right) struck after multiple Blot events occurred preceding the powerful cyclone (earthspot) over the region now.

May.8.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses. M6.2 in Alaska and M6.0 in Japan are not considered significant and will not count for the model.

May.7.2017

Click Here

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

May.6.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 12%

No hits or misses. High Alert Issued - Global Seismic Uptick Potential is Increasing (11:33pm Eastern US, May 6, 2017)[Noted in first map for May7 (UTC)

May.5.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 15%

No hits or misses

May.4.2017

Click Here(a)

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

May.3.2017

Click Here

15% / 18%

No hits or misses

May.2.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 10%

No hits or misses. The middle-east alert zone identified is seeing strongly-increased activity to the north. Coronal hole impacts could invigorate Russian low (earthspot) and trigger impact-forced shaking.

May.1.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.2 in Alaska (First two-missed-in-a-row since 2016; expected every 50-90 days) - Twin events in the same location (M6.2, M6.2) may indicate that these are foreshocks.

Apr.30.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.29.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.28.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.8 in the Philippines

Apr.27.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.26.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 7%

No hits or misses

Apr.25.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 5%

No hits or misses

Apr.24.2017

Click Here

15% / 8%

M6.9 In Chile struck near the southern tip of the Chilean red alert zone. The affected area stretched 100s of kms north into the red alert, covering approximately 10-15% of the red line there.

Apr.23.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.22.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 15%

No hits or misses

Apr.21.2017

Click Here

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Apr.20.2017

Click Here 2 3

20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.19.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 8%

No hits or misses

Apr.18.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 15%

Two M6.0 events occurred, in Fiji and Northern Peru. First mao applies. Neither reached M6.1 but the Peruvian event was labeled significant.

Apr.17.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 15%

No hits or misses

Apr.16.2017

Click Here 2 3

8% / 20%

No hits or misses

Apr.15.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

M6.2 in Chile [1st map]

Apr.14.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Apr.13.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Apr.12.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses, but a M5.8 in the Philippines (6.0 in national records) struck the red alert zone, injured one, and damaged more than 500 homes.

Apr.11.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Apr.10.2017

Click Here

12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Apr.9.2017

No new forecast

No hits or misses

Apr.8.2017

Click Here

18% / 12%

No hits or misses

Apr.7.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

No hits or misses, but a ‘significant’ M5.9 struck the Philippines in the Yellow alert zone (on watch for M5.8-6.3)

Apr.6.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Apr.5.2017

Click Here(a) 2 3

8% / 8%

Earthquake occurred before first map posting, map #3 from the 4th applies to first part of today.

Apr.4.2017

Click Here 2 3

12% / 6%

M6.1 in Iran, Map 3- See full explanation here - As red-alerts dropped off the map (especially in the east Pacific) the middle east basin took a red line on their primary fault. While the event occurred a few hundred miles off the actual fault line, this is very common if you look at the record even since this model began, and indeed the closest fault line to the earthquake event is the one that carried the alert. At least one person was killed in this earthquake.

Apr.3.2017

Click Here 2 3 4

15% / 7%

Miss: 6.5 in Botswana

Apr.2.2017

Click Here 2

8% / 5%

No hits or misses

Apr.1.2017

Click Here 2 3 4

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Mar.31.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses

Mar.30.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses

Mar.29.2017

Click Here

15% / 7%

No hits or misses

Mar.28.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

Miss: 6.6 in Russia

Mar.27.2017

Click Here 2 3

8% / 4%

A M6.1 (not significant) struck far western Alaska north on a fault struck by a Blot Echo 30 minutes earlier. While the Blot Echo was not reported (and the area not on alert), and while the earthquake was not of sufficient magnitude to count for the system, the Blot>M6 crust quake was a fantastic example of the model.

Mar.26.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses - 3 weeks without M6+ significant earthquakes, 2+ months of much-below-average seismicity.

Mar.25.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses (The largest event of the day, M5.7, struck Papua Indonesia in a red alert zone)

Mar.24.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.23.2017

Click Here

8% / 10%

No hits or misses. It has been 18 days without an M6+ significant earthquake.

Mar.22.2017

Click Here 2 3

4% / 5%

No hits or misses (Geomagnetic storms depressed seismicity)

Mar.21.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 15%

No hits or misses

Mar.20.2017

Click Here 2 3

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.19.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 11%

An M6.0 (not significant) struck the Solomon Is. in the yellow alert area (seeking M5.9-M6.4) per the first map on the day.

Mar.18.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.17.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.16.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 7%

No hits or misses

Mar.15.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Mar.14.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 9%

No hits or misses

Mar.13.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses. Before a new map could be posted on the 14th, a M6.0 struck the Nicobar Is. region of India, where a yellow alert for M5.6- M6.3 was active at the time.

Mar.12.2017

Click Here 2a 3

10% / 6%

No hits or misses

Mar.11.2017

Click Here 2 3

20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.10.2017

Click Here 2 3

12% / 5%

No hits or misses

Mar.9.2017

Click Here 2 3

20% / 12%

No hits or misses

Mar.8.2017

Click Here 2 3 4

12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Mar.7.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.6.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 12%

No hits or misses

Mar.5.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

M6.3 in PNG struck at the tip of the red alert zone (Map2), with the ‘affected area’ bleeding into the high alert area by ~125km. The following risk map was posted by our partner 9Rese on March 3rd:

Screen Shot 2017-03-06 at 7.54.09 AM.png

Mar.4.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

No hits or misses. A noteworthy M5.7 struck the Philippines in the red zone. It was easily the largest earthquake of the day. This event killed one person.

Mar.3.2017

Click Here 2 3

12% / 12%

No hits or misses. A noteworthy M5.9 struck near the end of the day in the Solomon Is. in the ‘red zone.’ It was easily the largest earthquake of the day (next was M5.3)

Mar.2.2017

Click Here

12% / 12%

No hits or misses

Mar.1.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses

Feb.28.2017

Click Here 2 3

20% / 12%

No hits or misses

Feb.27.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 12%

No hits or misses. It is noteworthy that the red alert in Japan (also noted in the Feb.27.2017 morning S0 news) took the largest earthquake of the day at M5.7 - the next-closest was M5.1.

Feb.26.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.25.2017

No Forecast. No hits or misses.

Feb.24.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.9 in Fiji. This event was 400km deep - much harder to predict than crustal events, and at that depth- it is a ‘blot echo’ and sets that region on alert as well. (Map 2 applies, Map 3 posted afterwards).

Feb.23.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses. Even with two M6+ events this week, we are now at 32 days of below-average seismic activity.

Feb.22.2017

Click Here

18% / 15%

No hits or misses

Feb.21.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

M6.5 in Bolivia (first map applies)

Feb.20.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Feb.19.2017

Click Here 2 3 4

20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.18.2017

Click Here 2a 3

15% / 10%

M6.3 in Argentina - Event struck between postings of the “a” and “2” links. Affected area includes northern reach of Chilean/Argentine alert zone.

Feb.17.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.16.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses - 25 days of below-average seismic activity.

Feb.15.2017

Click Here

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Feb.14.2017

Click Here 2

8% / 5%

No hits or misses

Feb.13.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.12.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.11.2017

Click Here

18% / 8%

No hits or misses

Feb.10.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.5 in the Philippines.

Feb.9.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.8.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Feb.7.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 15%

M6.3 in Mediterranean occurred 370km down, was only read by one meter, and likely will not make the ‘official’ lists- First map applies. M6.3 in Pakistan strikes orange alert zone (M5.3-M6.3). While not a red alert, the specified magnitude ‘hit’ along with it being a ‘significant’ earthquake makes it worth noting. Second map applies. UPDATE: Nobody picked up the Mediterranean Sea earthquake so we cannot count it in the statistics- just note it for yourself.

Feb.6.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 10%

No hits or misses. 16 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes. Getting to be a long time… lots of time for pressure to build.

Feb.5.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 10%

No hits or misses. 15 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Feb.4.2017

Click Here

18% / 12%

No hits or misses. 14 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Feb.3.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 10%

No hits or misses. 13 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Feb.2.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses. 12 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Feb.1.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 15%

No hits or misses. 11 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Jan.31.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 12%

No hits or misses. 10 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Jan.30.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 10%

No hits or misses. 9 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes.

Jan.29.2017

Click Here

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Jan.28.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 18%

No hits or misses

Jan.27.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 20%

1st map posted at 23:29 UTC Jan.26. No hits or misses

Jan.26.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jan.25.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jan.24.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 15%

No hits or misses

First 100 Days

Full-time forecasting began Oct.15.2016. 100 day success rate/alert coverage = 83.3% / 17.8%

Jan.23.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jan.22.2017

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20% / 15%

No hits or misses after the M7.9 in PNG

Jan.21.2017

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20% / 15%

M7.9 in PNG in the red alert zone of #3 (Struck early on Jan.22 - before any new maps could be posted)

Jan.20.2017

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jan.19.2017

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20% / 10%

M6.5 in Solomon Is. #3 - A Blot Echo activated the west Pacific orange line, and ten minutes later the bigger event struck. While there was not enough time to create a new alert map, the directions posted beneath the alert map in all maps posted today indicate that blot echos were what we were waiting for to call the highest alert.

Jan.18.2017

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12% / 12%

Map posted at 23:46 UTC Jan.17. Although not at the M6 threshold, two M5+ ‘significant earthquakes’ struck Italy in the red alert zone. No hits or misses.

Jan.17.2017

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18% / 8%

No hits or misses

Jan.16.2017

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18% / 8%

No hits or misses

Jan.15.2017

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20% / 15%

No hit or misses

Jan.14.2017

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12% / 10%

A notable M6 struck Fiji this morning but it was not a significant earthquake (this region generally requires M6.2-6.3 to become ‘significant’)

Jan.13.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jan.13.2017

Global

Temporal

M7+ risk peaks Jan.14 through late Jan.15 due to CME coupling and coronal hole activity.

Jan.12.2017

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15% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jan.11.2017

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12% / 5%

No hits or misses

Jan.10.2017

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15% / 7%

First map posted after M7.3 struck Philippines; see previous alerts. M6.3 in Solomon Is. struck the western edge of an alert zone but should be considered an aftershock earthquake of the M7.8 in the same area on Dec.8.2016. This ‘hit’ shall therefore not count in the official statistics.

Jan.9.2017

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15% / 10%

M7.3 in The Philippines (struck early on the 10th, before a new map posted

Jan.9.2017

Global

Temporal

M6.5+ potential peaks January 10-12, 2017. M7.3 in The Philippines on Jan.10.

Jan.8.2017

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17% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jan.7.2017

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12% / 8%

No hits or misses

Jan.6.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses. While not at threshold magnitude, multiple M5+ events struck Canada in the ‘secondary’ alert zone. These are well above average for the region.

Jan.5.2017

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20% / 22%

No hits or misses

Jan.4.2017

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20% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jan.3.2017

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15% / 10%

M6.9 in Fiji. This hit actually replaces yesterday’s in the record (so no change in the score based on this event. This is because yesterday’s event was a foreshock. We got both, yes, but we are only aiming for the top rumble, preferably near the crust.

Jan.2.2017

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20% / 25%

M6.3 in Fiji. The earthquake struck minutes before the “2” alert was posted. Fiji is on alert in all four maps. While this earthquake goes down as a ‘foreshock’, it counts as a ‘significant earthquake’ in the list below.

Jan.1.2017

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15% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Dec.31.2016

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Dec.31.2016

Global

Temporal

M6.5 potential peaks December 31, 2016 - January 2, 2017 due to coronal holes and CME coupling. Extended one day on Jan.1 due to persistent CH effects without geomagnetic storms.

Dec.30.2016

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Both 10-15%

No hits or misses

Dec.29.2016

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Both 15-20%

Miss M6.2 in Indonesia.

Dec.28.2016

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20% / 20%

A M5.9 struck the Japanese alert zone. While not M6, the USGS has declared this a “Significant Earthquake”. No hits or misses

Dec.27.2016

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Dec.26.2016

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15% / 7.5%

No hits or misses

Dec.25.2016

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10-15% / 10%

M7.6 in Chile. A perfect Blot echo-preceded earthquake; full explanation HERE. Despite epicenter striking slightly south of Chilean alert most-recently posted, the affected area included the red line, so no matter what, it was a ‘hit’. However, using the rules for Blot echoes, for when we are not actively making forecasts (like when we are asleep) there was no question that this was 100% the type of blot-related quake that plagues Chile, Peru, Argentina and Bolivia. The temporal correlation (~20min) is one of the best on record, and may not be matched for years to come.

Goal: Identify 5-20% of active faults; capture <60% of M6+ earthquakes.

Dec.24.2016

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15% / 7.5%

No hits or misses

Dec.24.2016

Global

Temporal

M6.5 potential peaks December 24-28, 2016 due to CME coupling and planetary geometry. M7.6 in Chile

Change going forward- 12/24

Links

Coverage of Active Faults

Column 3 shows highest-alert coverage of Ring of Fire/active faults worldwide to comport with statistical reporting of Real-World Testing - this replaces the daily success probability used previously.

Dec.23.2016

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2-3.5%

No hits or misses

Dec.22.2016

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2-3.5%

No hits or misses

Dec.21.2016

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3-4.5%

First map posted 15:13 UTC. No hits or misses.

Dec.20.2016

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3-4.5%

M6.7 in Indonesia at 00:17 UTC Dec.21, before the Dec.21 map could be posted

Dec.19.2016

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2.5-4%

No hits or misses

Dec.18.2016

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N/A

Only analysis is for the Americas as of 1220 UTC. M6.4 in Brazil (1330 UTC). Refer also to yesterday’s map.

Dec.17.2016

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2-3.5%

First map not posted until 20:04 UTC. No hits or misses thereafter.

Dec.16.2016

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2.5-4%

M7.9 in PNG This event struck early on December 17th, before a new map could be posted.

Dec.15.2016

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3-4.5%

No hits or misses

Dec.14.2016

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1-2.5%

Two “significant events” struck that day, according to the USGS, in the California alert zone. Largest was M5- way above average for California. Miss M6 in N.Mariana Is. - this earthquake was upgraded on December 15th from M5.5, and despite its magnitude, is not considered a ‘Significant Event’ by the USGS. (That region usually needs M6.2+ to be a Significant Event per USGS definitions).

Dec.13.2016

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2.5-4%

No hits or misses

Dec.12.2016

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3-4.5%

No hits or misses

Dec.11.2016

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2.5-4%

No hits or misses

Dec.10.2016

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2-3.5%

A notable aftershock struck Papua New Guinea 300mi. from the M7.8, on the same fault, but at much lower depth. No hits or misses.

Dec.9.2016

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3-4.5%

No hits or misses. Only aftershocks of the Kirakira quake.

Dec.8.2016 (2)

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2-3.5%

Dec.8 split into before/after M7.8 in Kirakira Solomon Is. No hits or misses

Dec.8.2016

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<2%

M6.6 in California. The earthquake struck the southern tip of the alert zone. Miss: M7.8 in Solomon Is. (as disappointing a miss as California was encouraging)

Dec.7.2016

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1.5-3%

No Hits or Misses. A rare M6.0 struck northwestern China in the alert zone. Alert level falling worldwide. Aftershocks possible. Next uptick expected December 9-11, 2016.

Dec.6.2016

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3-4.5%

Miss: M6.5 in Indonesia This earthquake struck just a few hundred kilometers outside our alert star. As a point of encouragement. See today’s first map, and then the 2nd “2”. The energy was tracking towards that area and the outskirts of the alert star were somewhat subjective.

Dec.5.2016

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3-4.5%

No hits or misses

Dec.4.2016

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2-3.5%

M6.3 in Indonesia - This earthquake struck at 0113 UTC on Dec.5, before any alert maps posted for that day.

Dec.3.2016

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2-3.5%

Occurred before Dec.3 map posted- Miss: M6.0 in Alaska. This region was incredibly close to being a hit, but close is no cigar with earthquakes.

Dec.2.2016

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2.5-4%

No hits or misses

Dec.1.2016

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3-4.5%

M6.2 in Peru - This area was in the tip of the alert star posted 23 hours before the earthquake event, and afterwards then the alert shifted north towards the quake.

Nov.30.2016

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2-3.5%

No hits or misses

Nov.29.2016

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1.5-3%

No hits or misses

Nov.28.2016

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1.5-3%

No hits or misses. Note: A notable M5+ quake in the rare location of Nepal woke/scared residents, and was in the watch zone, and an explosive volcano eruption took place on the fault south of Kamchatka, also on alert for the last day or so.

Nov.27.2016

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3-4.5%

No hits or misses

Nov.26.2016

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3.5-5%

No hits or misses

Nov.25.2016

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1.5-3%

No hits or misses

Nov.24.2016

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2.5-4%

M6.9 in El Salvador - Struck 3 minutes after map posted, however this area was also on alert on the Nov.22, 23 maps. Miss: M6.6 in Tajikistan, struck Nov.25 before new map posted.