Earthquake Forecasting Model Alerts/Results

We update the highest seismic risk areas as often as possible, up to 5 times daily. All hits must be called-out as being on-alert on the very-last alert map posted before the event. Hit periods have a green background, misses are noted in red. Everything is verifiable- click the links. ‘Fault Cover’ column shows Ring of Fire / Active Global Faults w/M6+ events in last 5 years. *Seeking main shocks only - not foreshocks or aftershocks.*

As of 11/11/2017 (when this page was retired), 6 of 8 (75%) M7+ main earthquakes, have struck high alert zones [33/66 ~50% of M6+] using ~13.8% / 9.1% coverage (ring of fire / world) of active faults.

This page was retired on November 11, 2017 and replaced by the official statistics page on QuakeWatch.net. All the fault coverage, hits, misses, statistics, notes, etc., will now be presented on that user-friendly form that does not create dozens of pages of scrolling forecasts.

Please continue to track the success/failure and keep up with risk maps at the new location. You can also continue to find this information on the twitter page and on the app.

*All Days based on UTC

*DATE (UTC)

MAP LINKS

~Fault Cover

Notes, Hits, Misses.

Nov.10.2017

Click Here

12% / 8%

M6.5 Ascension Island. This earthquake was foreast by QuakeWatch.net user CounselorGimber, as was the M6.8 in Tonga on Nov.4.2017. Using less than 15% of the global fault zone, including areas obviously outside the ring of fire (such as this event) this user has captured two of the last three M6+ events.

Nov.9.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses. M6.0 struck Japan, but too small to count for the model and did not receive a ‘significant’ designation by the USGS.

Nov.8.2017

Click Here

12% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Nov.7.2017

Click Here

12% / 8%

M6.5 in Papua New Guinea

Nov.6.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Nov.5.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Nov.4.2017

Click Here

12% / 10%

M6.8 Tonga [With this miss, the M6 success rate drops to 50%] -- see MODEL NOTE [in blue] from October 31.

Nov.3.2017

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10% / 10%

No hits or misses. Largest earthquake of the day was a M5.7 in Mexico, part of the spreading out of the aftershocks (noted in alert description) but luckily not a new large sequence.

Nov.2.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 12%

No hits or misses.

Nov.1.2017

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15% / 10%

A M6.6 aftershock struck New Caledonia [aftershocks are not sought for this model]. No hits or misses.

Oct.31.2017

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15% / 10%

MODEL NOTE: The M6 accuracy continues to struggle, indicating that the M7 marker may be the appropriate line for minimum magnitude. The mainstream-level idea of causation would be that many many things can cause smaller quakes, but the larger ones require different factors. This would mean that accuracy would fall as you got lower in magnitude [M8+ 100%, M7+ 75%, M6+ 51%, M5+ ~44%…] because many other things (outside the factors of the model) can result in smaller quakes.

Oct.30.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

M6.8 struck New Caledonia. M6.3 struck Indonesia only 19 minutes after the foreshock (m5.9) and was not reported until after the M6.3.

Oct.29.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Oct.28.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses. A M6.0 struck the north pole but was not ‘significant’.

Oct.27.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Oct.26.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses. A “significant event” struck the alert zone in California, but was only an M4.3 - M4.6 earthquake - too small to count for the model statistics.

Oct.25.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Oct.24.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

As the phi angle of the solar wind shifted a M6.7 struck Indonesia - luckily, it was a Blot Echo and caused no damage at all. The blot echo event raises the alert to the N, NW, and W.

Oct.23.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 6%

No hits or misses. Earthquake warning from Oct.22 peaks within 24hrs of Phi angle shift south in the solar wind (~50-200 degrees)

Oct.22.2017

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12% / 9%

No hits or misses. Day begins with high magnitude risk elevated (9:19am eastern US)

Oct.21.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Oct.19.2017

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15% / 9%

No hits or misses. No new map Oct.20

Oct.18.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

M6 struck the Tonga red alert [first map], but was not ‘significant.’ EVERY INDICATION is that this was actually a much larger earthquake, but if it is not corrected, it will remain as it.

Oct.17.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses. Increases Seismic Activity Likely w/in 48hrs.

Oct.16.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Oct.15.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Oct.14.2017

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10% / 10%

At 00:00UTC on Oct.15 the 1st year of forecasting came to a close. [8:00pm Eastern US, Oct.14]. No hits or misses.

Oct.13.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Oct.11.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses. No New Map on Oct.12

Oct.9.2017

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15% / 10%

No map Oct.10. Miss. M6.7 Bouvet Is. M6.3 in N.Chile shook the northern edge of the alert zone, but was a Blot Echo itself, at more than 80km down.

Oct.8.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

An M6.6 Blot Echo struck a Yellow alert zone seeking Blot Echoes to activate - they ended up being one in the same. Miss: M6.3 in Balleny Is. M6.1 in Tonga was not significant. None of the M6+ events were felt or caused any damage.

Oct.7.2017

Click Here1 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Oct.6.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

A significant M6.0 struck offshore of Japan (model requires at least M6.1, but for those looking into this event, see the low pressure developing during the event, and the prior ‘blot echo’ to the south in the Mariana Is.)

Oct.5.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses. Only 10 days left in the first year of this model.

Oct.4.2017

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12% / 6%

No hits or misses. *Solar polar magnetic field data update indicates M8.1 Mexico earthquake occurred just after a peak in N.SPF positive magnetism, which hit levels not seen in decades. A link to an informative paper on SPF and earthquakes can be found here.

Oct.3.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses. [7 Days w/o M6+ events, ~3 expected/week]

Oct.2.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Oct.1.2017

Click Here

12% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Sep.30.2017

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12% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Sep.29.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Sep.28.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Sep.27.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Sep.26.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.4 in Fiji (although it was 100km deep and not a danger at all, we must count it for the model due to magnitude and ‘significant’ designation. Last 3 misses were all more than 40km deep and caused no damage.

Sep.25.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses. *** Only 20 days left in the first full year of this model run!

Sep.24.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Sep.23.2017

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12% / 8%

A 6.1 aftershock has struck Mexico. This qualifies for the notation on the previous day (Sep.22) to watch for more, stronger aftershocks. ****The M6.1 in Japan on Sep.20 has been given a ‘significant’ designation by the USGS - it will now count for the model [Sep.20 row revised].

Sep.22.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

*Aftershocks in Mexico are reduced today - expect continued activity at low magnitude, and be on watch for increased in magnitude that may occur (as a sign of further activity).

Sep.21.2017

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12% / 8%

No hits or misses. *Remember the September Iceland Volcano Alert Remains in Effect [Not shown on map]

Sep.20.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

A M6.1 struck south of New Zealand but was not designated as ‘significant’ by the USGS. M6.1 in Japan. Miss: M6.4 in Vanuatu - despite this event being a ‘blot echo’ at 200km deep (which also means that nobody felt much) it exceeded the magnitude threshold and was ‘significant’ so it does count for the model.

Sep.19.2017

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15% / 8%

A M7.1 aftershock struck Mexico [1st map applies] ~20-30% of the black aftershock zone felt the event, and the epicenter was shaken by the original M8.1 on Sep.8. Although this event matches the map provided, aftershocks do not count for the model statistics, and will not count as a “hit”. [Black zones can never be hits - regardless of how accurate they may be]

Sep.18.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Sep.17.2017

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10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Sep.16.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses. LESS THAN ONE MONTH LEFT IN YEAR #2

Sep.14.2017

Click Here

15% / 8%

No hits or misses - no new map Sep15

Sep.13.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Sep.12.2017

Click Here1

10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Sep.11.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Sep.10.2017

Click Here

8% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Sep.9.2017

Click Here 2 3a

15% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Sep.8.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

M8.1 in Mexico [1st Map]

Sep.7.2017

Click HEre

10% / 5%

A M6 blot echo struck southern Japan, was not significant.

IMPORTANT

UPDATE

From August 8

Watch a video about this update here.

Before/After the 100-day mark: 25 for 30 / 6 for 27

On the 100th day began the longest streak of days without a M7 event in more than 50 years. At that time, the correlation between pre-seismic signals and the eventual larger earthquakes has virtually disappeared. The earthquake drought cannot last forever, and eventually larger rumbles will become more common, but we have truly witnessed a rare and unusually unique event in 2017’s seismic record. During similar droughts in the past, correlation seems to have also waned to ~30% of its normal value. It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming months. [Note: In the first 100 days we had 30 M6+ events, it has been more than 200 days since then and there have been only 27.] **Update Note, Aug.31.2017: the anti-correlation displayed since Day 101 is more statistically significant than the success during the first 100 days. In other words, as odd as it was to have so many hits at first, it is now more of an oddity to have this many misses given the alert zone size.

Sep.5.2017

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10% / 5%

No hits or misses OR new map Sep.6

Sep.4.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

M6.0 struck the South Atlantic (was/remains on alert) but it was not above M6.0 or significant, the two things needed to count for this model.

Sep.3.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 10%

No hits or misses. A large seismic event was recorded in North Korea but the data (and the press) say it was a nuclear test.

Sep.2.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Sep.1.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.31.2017

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10% / 5%

Miss: M6.3 in Indonesia

Aug.30.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.29.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Aug.28.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Aug.27.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.3 in PNG

Aug.26.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Aug.25.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.24.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Aug.23.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Aug.22.2017

Click Here

10% / 10%

No hits or misses. A deadly earthquake struck a red alert in Italy but was below the magnitude threshold of this model’s statistical tracking..

Aug.21.2017

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10% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Aug.20.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Aug.19.2017

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12% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Aug.18.2018

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8% / 4%

Miss: M6.4 Fiji [500km deep]

Aug.17.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

Miss : M6.6 Atlantic Ocean

Aug.16.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Aug.15.2017

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12% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Aug.14.2017

Click Here 2 3

12% / 6%

No hits or misses. M6.0 struck the red alert in Samoa but the earthquake was downgraded and cannot count for the model.

Aug.13.2017

Click Here

15% / 8%

Miss: M6.4 Sumatra

Aug.12.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.11.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

Miss: M6.2 Philippines

Aug.10.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Aug.9.2017

Click Here

15% / 7%

No hits or misses.

IMPORTANT

UPDATE

From August 8

Watch a video about this update here.

Before/After the 100-day mark: 25 for 30 / 6 for 22

On the 100th day began the longest streak of days without a M7 event in more than 50 years. At that time, the correlation between pre-seismic signals and the eventual larger earthquakes has virtually disappeared. The earthquake drought cannot last forever, and eventually larger rumbles will become more common, but we have truly witnessed a rare and unusually unique event in 2017’s seismic record. During similar droughts in the past, correlation seems to have also waned to ~30% of its normal value. It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming months. [Note: In the first 100 days we had 30 M6+ events, it has been almost 200 days since then and there have been only 22.]

Aug.8.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

Misses: M6.5, M6.3 China. It must be noted that earthquakes in China follow no forecastable pattern with foreshocks. Not only were there no foreshocks to these events, but the M7.9 that struck the region in 2008 had no foreshocks, and indeed nothing in M5 range for 35 days beforehand.

Aug.7.2017

Click Here

12% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Aug.6.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.5.2017

Click Here

10% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.4.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Aug.3.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Aug.2.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses. Mt. Sinabung had a large eruption in the Indonesian Red Alert. While not as common, and not part of the model statistics, we have noted that the larger Indonesian/Japanese volcanic eruptions are falling under similar seismic alerts.

Aug.1.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.31.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Jul.30.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.29.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 10%

No hits or misses. A semi-rare M5.1 struck the California coastline in an area on alert. It was ‘significant’ but failed to hit the M6 threshold and will not count for the model statistics.

Jul.28.2017

Click Here

10% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.27.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Jul.26.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.25.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 5%

No hits or misses.

Jul.24.2017

Click Here

12% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Jul.23.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 7%

No hits or misses.

Jul.22.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 6%

No hits or misses.

Jul.21.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Jul.20.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

Miss: M6.7 in Turkey struck a yellow-alert zone. We missed the magnitude by 0.4

Jul.19.2017

Click Here 2 3 4

12% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.18.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

M6.4 Peru [Before first map posted, yesterday’s map applies- Jul.17.2017]

Jul.17.2017

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15% / 10%

 Miss: M7.7 in Russia

Jul.16.2017

Click Here

10% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Jul.15.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

Jul.14.2017

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12% / 8%

No hits or misses.

Jul.13.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 7%

Miss: M6.4 Papua New Guinea. Earthquake struck while map was being posted, then earthquake reported to world 18 minutes later. This is the first time an alert map has been posted during an earthquake.

Jul.12.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 9%

No hits or misses

Jul.11.2017

Click Here

12% / 6%

Miss: M6.6 New Zealand [1st map applies]

Jul.10.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jul.9.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jul.8.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 5%

No hits or misses

Jul.7.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jul.6.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.5 Philippines [1st map applies]

Jul.5.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jul.4.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jul.3.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jul.2.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jul.1.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.30.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses. A M6.0 struck Ecuador (#2 map) but was not significant.

Jun.29.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jun.28.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 15%

No hits or misses. Two non-significant M6.0s struck New Zealand.

Jun.27.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.26.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.25.2017

Click Here 2

8% / 10%

No hits or misses. A non-significant M6.2 struck about 40km beneath Tonga/Fiji area. This region is used to this size rumble, and it takes about an M6.3 within 15km of the crust to become significant (based on observing history).

Jun.24.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.23.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.22.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

M6.8 in Guatemala - For the first time, it is a hairline judgement call as to whether this event is within the #2 map red alert. However, since it is in the exact location of the larger M6.9 eight days ago (see Jun.14 row), it is unquestionably an aftershock (not part of the model statistics). It DOES bring into question the magnitude downgrade of the initial shock, as it was listed well above M7.0 and was later downgraded.

Jun.21.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Jun.20.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.19.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 7%

No hits or misses

Jun.18.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses

Jun.17.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

No hits or misses. A non-significant M6.1 struck Fiji at blot echo depths - which keeps-alive the N.Oceania red star due to a concurrent earthspot nearby.

Jun.16.2017

Click Here note 2

10% / 6%

No hits or misses

Jun.15.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.14.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 15%

M6.9 in Guatemala After numerous Blot Echoes, this one struck at Blot Echo depth itself, but was felt across a wide portion of central america, including (by about 88 miles) a tiny red alert on the first map.

Jun.13.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 15%

No hits or misses

Jun.12.2017

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10% / 10%

Miss: M6.3 Greece

Jun.11.2017

Click Here 2 3 4

10% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.10.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.9.2017

Click Here 2

8% / 5%

No hits or misses

Jun.8.2017

Click Here 2

8% / 4%

No hits or misses

Jun.7.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.6.2017

Click Here

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.5.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.4.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Jun.3.2017

Click Here

18% / 12%

No hits or misses

Jun.2.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 9%

Miss: M6.8 in Alaska

Jun.1.2017

Click Here

18% / 15%

No hits or misses

May.31.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 15%

No hits or misses

May.30.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.29.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.8 in Indonesia

May.28.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses. Major earthquake drought in progress - 2nd one of the year so far.

May.27.2017

Click Here

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.26.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

May.25.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 6%

No hits or misses

May.24.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.23.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.22.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

May.21.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 12%

No hits or misses

May.20.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.19.2017

Click Here 2 3

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

May.18.2017

Click Here 2 3

5% / 8%

No hits or misses

May.17.2017

Click Here

18% / 10%

No hits or misses

May.16.2017

Click Here 2 3

8% / 5%

No hits or misses

May.15.2017

Click Here 2

10% / 15%

Miss: M6.2 in Papua New Guinea. This miss will be interesting to review in hindsight, given the extra Blot Echoes preceding it, noted here. While consideration was clearly moving toward that zone, no new map was posted today before the event occurred and it is a miss for personal stats tracked here. For those looking into the science, this is well within the distance migration potential for this region of the world - paper available QuakeWatch.net

May.14.2017

Click Here 2 3

18% / 10%

No hits or misses.

May.13.2017

Click Here 2 3

18% / 15%

A M5.8 (significant) struck the middle east red alert in the 2nd map. It will not count for the statistics because of its magnitude. Dead/Injured - 2/200+

May.12.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

M6.2 in El Salvador [This event’s ‘affected’ area hit two different red line alerts, was much broader than one would ever expect from a magnitude 6.2*, and is the first time two red lines have ever been hit by the same earthquake. This event struck as earthspot Adrian spun nearby, just as their last one (M6.9 in November 2016) struck with Hurricane Otto overhead. Both are called “Earthspot Quakes” due to their strong GEC(-) setup after having deep earthquakes (Blot Echoes) showing buildup (+) below.

May.11.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses.

May.10.2017

Click Here 2 3

10% / 8%

Miss: M6.5 in S. Atlantic - The Blot echo setting the would-be alert occurred 85 minutes prior to this larger event. While our personal efforts did not get the alert up in time, the automated systems from 9Rese over at QuakeWatch.net did have it in their alerts.

May.9.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

M6.8 in Vanuatu - [1st map applies] Large event (and a Blot echo in its own right) struck after multiple Blot events occurred preceding the powerful cyclone (earthspot) over the region now.

May.8.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 8%

No hits or misses. M6.2 in Alaska and M6.0 in Japan are not considered significant and will not count for the model.

May.7.2017

Click Here

15% / 8%

No hits or misses

May.6.2017

Click Here 2

18% / 12%

No hits or misses. High Alert Issued - Global Seismic Uptick Potential is Increasing (11:33pm Eastern US, May 6, 2017)[Noted in first map for May7 (UTC)

May.5.2017

Click Here 2

20% / 15%

No hits or misses

May.4.2017

Click Here(a)

15% / 12%

No hits or misses

May.3.2017

Click Here

15% / 18%

No hits or misses

May.2.2017

Click Here 2

12% / 10%

No hits or misses. The middle-east alert zone identified is seeing strongly-increased activity to the north. Coronal hole impacts could invigorate Russian low (earthspot) and trigger impact-forced shaking.

May.1.2017

Click Here 2

15% / 10%

Miss: M6.2 in Alaska (First two-missed-in-a-row since 2016; expected every 50-90 days) - Twin events in the same location (M6.2, M6.2) may indicate that these are foreshocks.

Apr.30.2017

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18% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.29.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.28.2017

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15% / 10%

Miss: M6.8 in the Philippines

Apr.27.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.26.2017

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12% / 7%

No hits or misses

Apr.25.2017

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10% / 5%

No hits or misses

Apr.24.2017

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15% / 8%

M6.9 In Chile struck near the southern tip of the Chilean red alert zone. The affected area stretched 100s of kms north into the red alert, covering approximately 10-15% of the red line there.

Apr.23.2017

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18% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.22.2017

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10% / 15%

No hits or misses

Apr.21.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Apr.20.2017

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Apr.19.2017

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10% / 8%

No hits or misses

Apr.18.2017

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15% / 15%

Two M6.0 events occurred, in Fiji and Northern Peru. First mao applies. Neither reached M6.1 but the Peruvian event was labeled significant.

Apr.17.2017

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18% / 15%

No hits or misses

Apr.16.2017

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8% / 20%

No hits or misses

Apr.15.2017

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12% / 6%

M6.2 in Chile [1st map]

Apr.14.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Apr.13.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Apr.12.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses, but a M5.8 in the Philippines (6.0 in national records) struck the red alert zone, injured one, and damaged more than 500 homes.

Apr.11.2017

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12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Apr.10.2017

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12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Apr.9.2017

No new forecast

No hits or misses

Apr.8.2017

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18% / 12%

No hits or misses

Apr.7.2017

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15% / 7%

No hits or misses, but a ‘significant’ M5.9 struck the Philippines in the Yellow alert zone (on watch for M5.8-6.3)

Apr.6.2017

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12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Apr.5.2017

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8% / 8%

Earthquake occurred before first map posting, map #3 from the 4th applies to first part of today.

Apr.4.2017

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12% / 6%

M6.1 in Iran, Map 3- See full explanation here - As red-alerts dropped off the map (especially in the east Pacific) the middle east basin took a red line on their primary fault. While the event occurred a few hundred miles off the actual fault line, this is very common if you look at the record even since this model began, and indeed the closest fault line to the earthquake event is the one that carried the alert. At least one person was killed in this earthquake.

Apr.3.2017

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15% / 7%

Miss: 6.5 in Botswana

Apr.2.2017

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8% / 5%

No hits or misses

Apr.1.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Mar.31.2017

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10% / 5%

No hits or misses

Mar.30.2017

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10% / 5%

No hits or misses

Mar.29.2017

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15% / 7%

No hits or misses

Mar.28.2017

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10% / 5%

Miss: 6.6 in Russia

Mar.27.2017

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8% / 4%

A M6.1 (not significant) struck far western Alaska north on a fault struck by a Blot Echo 30 minutes earlier. While the Blot Echo was not reported (and the area not on alert), and while the earthquake was not of sufficient magnitude to count for the system, the Blot>M6 crust quake was a fantastic example of the model.

Mar.26.2017

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10% / 5%

No hits or misses - 3 weeks without M6+ significant earthquakes, 2+ months of much-below-average seismicity.

Mar.25.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses (The largest event of the day, M5.7, struck Papua Indonesia in a red alert zone)

Mar.24.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.23.2017

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8% / 10%

No hits or misses. It has been 18 days without an M6+ significant earthquake.

Mar.22.2017

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4% / 5%

No hits or misses (Geomagnetic storms depressed seismicity)

Mar.21.2017

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12% / 15%

No hits or misses

Mar.20.2017

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18% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.19.2017

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20% / 11%

An M6.0 (not significant) struck the Solomon Is. in the yellow alert area (seeking M5.9-M6.4) per the first map on the day.

Mar.18.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.17.2017

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.16.2017

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15% / 7%

No hits or misses

Mar.15.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Mar.14.2017

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15% / 9%

No hits or misses

Mar.13.2017

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12% / 6%

No hits or misses. Before a new map could be posted on the 14th, a M6.0 struck the Nicobar Is. region of India, where a yellow alert for M5.6- M6.3 was active at the time.

Mar.12.2017

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10% / 6%

No hits or misses

Mar.11.2017

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.10.2017

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12% / 5%

No hits or misses

Mar.9.2017

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20% / 12%

No hits or misses

Mar.8.2017

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12% / 6%

No hits or misses

Mar.7.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Mar.6.2017

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20% / 12%

No hits or misses

Mar.5.2017

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15% / 7%

M6.3 in PNG struck at the tip of the red alert zone (Map2), with the ‘affected area’ bleeding into the high alert area by ~125km. The following risk map was posted by our partner 9Rese on March 3rd:

Screen Shot 2017-03-06 at 7.54.09 AM.png

Mar.4.2017

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15% / 7%

No hits or misses. A noteworthy M5.7 struck the Philippines in the red zone. It was easily the largest earthquake of the day. This event killed one person.

Mar.3.2017

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12% / 12%

No hits or misses. A noteworthy M5.9 struck near the end of the day in the Solomon Is. in the ‘red zone.’ It was easily the largest earthquake of the day (next was M5.3)

Mar.2.2017

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12% / 12%

No hits or misses

Mar.1.2017

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12% / 8%

No hits or misses

Feb.28.2017

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20% / 12%

No hits or misses

Feb.27.2017

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20% / 12%

No hits or misses. It is noteworthy that the red alert in Japan (also noted in the Feb.27.2017 morning S0 news) took the largest earthquake of the day at M5.7 - the next-closest was M5.1.

Feb.26.2017

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.25.2017

No Forecast. No hits or misses.

Feb.24.2017

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15% / 10%

Miss: M6.9 in Fiji. This event was 400km deep - much harder to predict than crustal events, and at that depth- it is a ‘blot echo’ and sets that region on alert as well. (Map 2 applies, Map 3 posted afterwards).

Feb.23.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses. Even with two M6+ events this week, we are now at 32 days of below-average seismic activity.

Feb.22.2017

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18% / 15%

No hits or misses

Feb.21.2017

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12% / 8%

M6.5 in Bolivia (first map applies)

Feb.20.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses

Feb.19.2017

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.18.2017

Click Here 2a 3

15% / 10%

M6.3 in Argentina - Event struck between postings of the “a” and “2” links. Affected area includes northern reach of Chilean/Argentine alert zone.

Feb.17.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.16.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses - 25 days of below-average seismic activity.

Feb.15.2017

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15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Feb.14.2017

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8% / 5%

No hits or misses

Feb.13.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.12.2017

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10% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.11.2017

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18% / 8%

No hits or misses

Feb.10.2017

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15% / 10%

Miss: M6.5 in the Philippines.

Feb.9.2017

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15% / 10%

No hits or misses

Feb.8.2017

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15% / 12%

No hits or misses

Feb.7.2017

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20% / 15%

M6.3 in Mediterranean occurred 370km down, was only read by one meter, and likely will not make the ‘official’ lists- First map applies. M6.3 in Pakistan strikes orange alert zone (M5.3-M6.3). While not a red alert, the specified magnitude ‘hit’ along with it being a ‘significant’ earthquake makes it worth noting. Second map applies. UPDATE: Nobody picked up the Mediterranean Sea earthquake so we cannot count it in the statistics- just note it for yourself.

Feb.6.2017

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20% / 10%

No hits or misses. 16 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes. Getting to be a long time… lots of time for pressure to build.

Feb.5.2017

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18% / 10%

No hits or misses. 15 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Feb.4.2017

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18% / 12%

No hits or misses. 14 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Feb.3.2017

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10% / 10%

No hits or misses. 13 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Feb.2.2017

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15% / 8%

No hits or misses. 12 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Feb.1.2017

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15% / 15%

No hits or misses. 11 Days without M6+ ‘significant’ earthquakes

Jan.31.2017

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