Emails, Brian W. Smith, associate professor of political science, School of Behavioral and Social Sciences, St. Edward’s University, Sept. 7-8, 2013

1:43 pm

Sept. 7, 2013

the speaker... fails to mention out migration.  These data are from the US Census for 2011 (last available data). The Numbers include estimates for the population 1 year and over for each state,

I used the data from the following source

http://www.census.gov/hhes/migration/data/acs/state-to-state.html

For Texas

 

Outmigration  405283                     Per Day 1110.364

Inflow            514726                      Per Day 1410.208 ---- possible that you have 400 new republicans or leaners coming to texas

Net Increase 109443                       Per Day  299.8438   ----- No matter how he swings it, they are not adding 400 republicans a day when you include who is leaving

so if you look at the data, it is possible that of the  1410.208 per day 400 of them are Republican.

If you use census data regarding people who are at least 18 years old (23.5% of the US Population are not) and assume they are all eligible to vote (citizens who meet texas voting law).

I don't think we can "prove" him wrong, but neither is his statement true...

bws

8:37 am

Sept. 8, 2013

I misread the original quote.  500 a day is less likely!

For Texas 2011

 

Outmigration  405283                     Per Day 1110.364

Inflow            514726                      Per Day 1410.208 ---- At 500 per day,  35.4% would have to be republican or leaners

Net Increase 109443                       Per Day  299.8438   ----- No matter how he swings it, they are not adding 500 republicans a day when you include who is leaving

Using the national data for 18 year olds, 46.3 of new Texans would have to be Republicans to get 500 a day.  This is very difficult given the national partisan breakdown.  If 46% of americans were Republican, romney would be president.

bws