Emails on behalf of Leticia Van de Putte, Emmanuel Garcia, communications director, Texas Democratic Party, June 2 and 9, 2014

2:20 pm

June 2, 2014

--

$720 million a day:

From an Austin Business Journal piece from February 26, 2013 by James Jeffrey.

The impact of international trade for states such as Texas cannot be overstated, according to those that appeared before the committee. Trade between Texas and Mexico is worth $720 million a day, according to the governor’s office.

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/blog/abj-at-the-capitol/2013/02/transportation-links-to-mexico-key-for.html

Mexico our #1 trading partner:

“Texas’ export market partners continued to be led by its NAFTA trading partners. Mexico ranked No. 1 with $100.9 billion in Texas exports followed by Canada with $25.8 billion. Brazil ranked No. 3 with $10.8 billion, China ranked No. 4 with $10.7 billion, and the Netherlands ranked No. 5 with $9.5 billion.”

http://governor.state.tx.us/files/ecodev/texas-economic-overview.pdf

US Census Bureau has a diagram:

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/tx.html

--

Emmanuel Garcia

Communications Director

Texas Democratic Party

On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 9:50 AM, Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) <wgselby@statesman.com> wrote:

Manny:

 

Good morning.

 

Below (I recommend scrolling from bottom) you’ll see my exchanges with a census bureau expert and Gov. Perry’s office about the senator’s dollar figure for the average level of daily trade between Texas and Mexico.

 

By the bureau expert’s analysis, the figure declared by Van de Putte was too high. I’m also forwarding (as attached) the bureau’s figures for trade between states and Mexico for 2011 through 2013. If I read right, the correct figure for 2011 would have been a little under $500 million a day. Van de Putte said $720 million.

 

Thoughts?

 

I hope to complete this fact check today.

 

Thanks.

 

g.

From: Lucy Nashed

Sent: Friday, June 06, 2014 6:30 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: FW: Census bureau

 

I touched on that a little in my last email – the calculation presented in testimony was based on port-level data, which was the only data set available to us at the time. That data came from the U.S. Census Bureau, and was accessed via WiserTrade for 2011. As I also mentioned in my previous email, we no longer use port-level data, as we have access to specific metrics now.  We currently utilize the following data sets: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/data/imports/tx.html#ctry that show the FY2013 numbers based on non port-level data: $100.9 billion + $94.6195 billion = $195.58 B /363 = $538.8 million.

 

From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin

Sent: Friday, June 06, 2014 3:40 PM

To: Lucy Nashed

Subject: Census bureau

 

Lucy:

 

I asked an expert with the federal government for her analysis of Texas trade with Mexico and she came back with a lower dollar figure, for 2013. It’d seem logical for the 2013 figure to exceed the 2011 trade figure. I asked her if she could try to discern the differences between the state’s calculation you shared and the later one. Her latest email appears immediately below.

 

?

 

I’d be happy to do a joint interview of some kind, even by email, if you think it might hasten a sorting out.

 

g.

 

From: mala.g.mistry

Sent: Friday, June 06, 2014 2:06 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: RE: Texas reporter

 

My main question for their figure is, where did they get their import number? The export number is close to ours, but the import one is much higher, which is what is pushing up their daily amount. I've attached the chart I sent earlier with a new tab showing 2011-2013. I also changed it to reflect a 363 day year.


Mala Mistry

Data Dissemination Branch

Foreign Trade Division

U.S. Census Bureau

 

From: mala.g.mistry

Sent: Friday, June 06, 2014 1:47 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: Re: Texas reporter

 

Hello again,

So looking at total trade for Texas/Mexico, I get $195,584,974,251. This comes out to $535.8 million/day. I've attached a chart that shows this.


Mala Mistry

Data Dissemination Branch

Foreign Trade Division

U.S. Census Bureau

(Garcia email below)

5:57 p.m.

June 9, 2014

Thanks for bringing this to our attention. As you know, our citation on the daily economic impact of trade came from an Austin Business Journal article dated February 26, 2013. (Citation: http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/blog/abj-at-the-capitol/2013/02/transportation-links-to-mexico-key-for.html).

 

Further, the $720 million a day trade figure used in the article came directly from testimony given the day before the article by the Governor's Office to the House Committee on International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs. (Citation: http://www.house.state.tx.us/video-audio/committee-broadcasts/).  It was also mentioned in October 2013 in an article published by NPR/ Arizona Public Radio. (Citation: http://knau.org/post/arizona-versus-texas-border-trade-not-even-contest).

 

We see that the Governor's office was using port-level data, which was the only data available at the time, and they have since updated their numbers to reflect data gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau.

 

Even at right below or above $500 million a day in trade along our southern border, Senator Van de Putte continues to believe Dan Patrick’s inflammatory rhetoric and policy proposals pose serious threats to the stability of Texas’ economy.  In expressing her sense of urgency, however, Senator  Van de Putte will, moving forward, rely on U.S. Census Bureau data.

 

Best,

Emmanuel Garcia

--

Emmanuel Garcia

Communications Director

Texas Democratic Party