4:40 pm
It's probably reasonably close to the right level, but without the airplane part, as you say. But, there is a good chance that the proportion could higher, simply because this proportion was estimated about thirty years ago. Since then, the pool of persons who are candidates to overstay their visas has grown immensely. Even if the rate at which persons on visas overstay them has remained constant, the raw numbers of those doing so could have increased, and done so disproportionately enough to make the 40 % figure rise. Unfortunately, we have no way of estimating this with accuracy.
On 9/5/2013 11:57 AM, Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) wrote:
Dr. Bean:
I write because we are checking a claim that about 40 percent of the nation’s illegal immigrants represent people who came here on planes and overstayed their visas. I see that this figure fits with the 2006 report by the Pew Hispanic Center, though maybe not the airplanes part. Then again, Secretary Napolitano testified in April 2012 that 40 percent may be too high.
What are your thoughts?
Are there other more recent valid analyses?
Much appreciated.
g.
W. Gardner Selby
PolitiFact Texas
Austin American-Statesman