Email, Lloyd Potter, Texas state demographer, July 17, 2014

9:38 a.m.

The Texas State Data Center 2012 vintage population projections (http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Projections/Index.aspx) have the number of person of Hispanic descent exceeding those who are non-Hispanic white and then exceeding all other race/ethnic groups (more than 50% of the population) at different times depending on the migration assumption used. The three migration assumptions employed in our projections are 1) no migration (population change only from births and deaths), 2) migration is the same as we observed between 2000 and 2010,  and 3) migration is half of what we observed between 2000 and 2010.

The number of Hispanics are projected to exceed the number of non-Hispanic whites:

1)          No-migration  - 2023

2)          2000-2010 migration – 2017

3)          Half of 2000-2010 migration – 2019

The number of Hispanics are projected to exceed the number of all other race/ethnic groups (>50% of the population):

1)          No-migration  - 2049

2)          2000-2010 migration – 2036

3)          Half of 2000-2010 migration – 2040

(See the spreadsheet here.)