Emails (excerpted), responses from Laura Sorrell, volunteer spokeswoman, the Texas Federation of Republican Women, Jan. 25 through Feb. 1, 2013

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Jan. 25, 2013

(from Laura Sorrell, Austin spokeswoman)

Below is a statement from Carolyn Hodges.  Please let me know if you need any additional clarification.

 

Thanks,

Laura

 

Carolyn Hodges, TFRW President:

 

We sought information from many sources and immigration groups across the nation to find a high and low number.  While working with the groups, there were widely varied estimates.  Because the range of numbers is so broad, we hoped to use the broadest of numbers so that we could get down to the point of finding smart solutions, not just more disagreement.

 

Here is an example of the difficulty in estimating the number:

 

The “residual method” is widely used to estimate the undocumented population of the USA. With this method, the known number of legal immigrants to the United States is subtracted from the reported U.S. Census number of self-proclaimed foreign born people to obtain the total, unauthorized immigrant (residual) population.[2] This methodology is used by the US Department of Homeland Security,[3] the Pew Hispanic Center, the US Census Bureau and others. Since undocumented immigrants have many reasons for not answering the U.S. Census correctly and since there are no penalties for answering the U.S. Census incorrectly, a direct subtraction is a well-known source of undercount error and has to be corrected. All known users of this methodology correct the foreign born population (about 35–50 million) by 10–40% (3–12 million) to account for this undercount effect. Critics claim this correction is in error no matter which size correction is used.  (Jeffery Passel, Unauthorized Migrants:  Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, June 2005; Michael Hoefer and Christopher Campbell, Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States:  May 2006, US Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, Policy Directorate, January 2005)

 

From: <Selby>, "Gardner (CMG-Austin)" <wgselby@statesman.com>

Date: Friday, January 25, 2013 3:08 PM

To: Laura Sorrell

Subject: RE: TFRW information

 

Thanks, Laura. Where did the group field the 9  million and 50 million figures?

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Jan. 25, 2013

The example provided below there is a large margin of error when figuring out the number using the residual data method.  Because the number varies from each report you see when browsing for the figure,  it was clear that there is no correct number.  Even the government agencies (US Dept. Homeland Security and the Census Bureau) agree that the margin of error can range anywhere from 10%-40% more than what is actually published.

 

Again, the point is to show that no one knows the actual number and that is why TFRW is offering a smart solution to the issue, instead of just continuing the disagreement.

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Jan. 29, 2013

The 50 million source TFRW used was Joan Neuhaus Schaan, who at the time of speaking with TFRW, was the Fellow for Homeland Security & Terrorism Programs at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.

1151  am

Jan. 31, 2013

The 50 million source TFRW used was Joan Neuhaus Schaan, who at the time of speaking with TFRW, was the Fellow for Homeland Security & Terrorism Programs at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.

The 50 million source TFRW used was Joan Neuhaus Schaan, who at the time of speaking with TFRW, was the Fellow for Homeland Security & Terrorism Programs at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.

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Jan. 31, 2013

The point was to show you're using sources that people do not view as credible.

 

Sorry about not providing the source for the 9 million.  Thought you had already proven that number to be correct on your own.  Here are some sources below:

 

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there are 8 to 9 million "undocumented workers," as they are often called, in the U.S., and each year the number goes up by about 500,000. Other estimates are much higher.

 

 …the official number put out by the U.S. Census of 9 million…

 

Again, the point of the resolution was to not get bogged down with the numbers, but to prove a point that no one knows what the actual numbers are.  The overall resolution is to show that the real discussion should be about the policy and overall reform — not specific numbers.

From: <Selby>, "Gardner (CMG-Austin)" <wgselby@statesman.com>

Date: Friday, February 1, 2013 12:12 PM

To: Laura Sorrell

Subject: No on census

 

 

I rechecked with the census bureau. It has made no estimates. Let me know if you have a source for the 9 million figure?

 

W. Gardner Selby

 

PolitiFact Texas

1254 pm

Feb. 1, 2013

No, they don't.

 

 

 

From: <Selby>, "Gardner (CMG-Austin)" <wgselby@statesman.com>

Date: Friday, February 1, 2013 12:12 PM

To: Laura Sorrell

Subject: No on census

 

 

I rechecked with the census bureau. It has made no estimates. Let me know if you have a source for the 9 million figure?

 

W. Gardner Selby

 

PolitiFact Texas