UFC 295 Navigation Doc

Updates:

Added Roosevelt Roberts Tape & Previous Performance in Odds Range (Page 1)
Added BetMMA Official Bets & Tapology Votes (Page 2)
Added BetMMA Good Money Distribution (Page 3) & Write Ups for Each Bet. (Page 4)

Resources:

Liam’s Current Bets:

Tapology Votes:

BetMMA.Tips Good Money Distribution (As of 11/11 @5:55 PM EST)

Bet Write-Ups:

Why Buzukja ML +260 ?

1) Buzujka opens +145 (BOL) & shoots up to +275 where it peaked and has been trickling back down ever since. Now the line is at +235.
2) Emmers is 19-7 as a pro with 4/7 losses ITD. In the UFC, he is 2-3 with no wins ITD.
3) Emmers 1-4 as a favorite for a (-75.6% ROI)
4) Emmers 34 (old for division) vs. a highly motivated, younger, fresher local 26 year old.
5) Buzujka looked bad last fight because he cut a ton of weight and was on short notice. Even when he was sick vs Melsik on DWCS he made a better account of himself. I expect 100% effort.
6) Emmers doesn't move units. Not a social media star, not a talker, not interesting. I think Buzujka winning would be good for business.
7) Emmers training environment doesn't seem to have a ton of UFC fighters in his proximity. Opposite is true for Buzujka surrounded by world class coach and team at Serra Longo.
8)**PS: He looks a little saucy this camp 👀**

Why Borjas ML +200 ?

1) Both fighters = Young, Tough, Scrappy, Growing
2) Borjas is 25 (physically developed) while Van is only 22 (still developing physically)
3) Both men only professional loss via SUB; both prefer to strike.
4) Van was +180 dog in first fight, edged ZZ Top on a SDEC. Now he is a -2xx favorite
5) Borjas overperformed as a dog on DWCS, looked very good vs. Pantoja training partner.
6) Already prepped for Van on DWCS over the summer.
7) I would make Van a slight favorite at most . Fight could easily play out like a pick 'em
8) Peruvian MMA been very hot this year. Riding the hot hand at big +$
9) Borjas opened +155 (BOL) peaked at +210, now back to +190.

Why Prochazka ML +110 ?

1) Jiri fits a long term profitable angle for me; younger fighter with more MMA experience.
----> Prochazka is 31yo vs. 36yo Pereira ||| Jiri 33 Pro MMA Bouts vs. Alex 10 Pro MMA Bouts
2) Pereira is making a very quick turnaround after a laborious Jan Blachowicz fight.
3) Prochazka young & hungry enough to return from injury / setback and continue to improve.
4) I expect Jiri to have a significant wrestling/grappling edge in this fight (if implemented)
5) Both men have explosive striking but Jiri appears to have the superior recoverability.
6) Prochazka has been favored in all his UFC fights except Oezdemir (won via KO2)
7) Since 2016 Jiri is 13-0 as a pro MMA fighter with 12/13 wins ITD (11KOs & 1 SUB)
8) Since 2016 Alex is 8-1 as a pro MMA fighter with 6/8 wins ITD (6 KO wins & 1 KO Loss)
9) Prochazka is marketable, English speaker, ton left to give in the sport, appeals to multi-demo.
10) Jiri will fight like a dog for your money historically. Willing to die for victory.

Why Prochazka SUB +1200 & Ends SUB +850 ?

1) Very common to see striker vs striker matchup turn into a sloppy grappling match.
2) Jiri submitted a world class BJJ practioner last fight in Glover Teixeira, mentor of Pereira.
3) If Pereira wanted to exact revenge, he may look to submit Jiri even if he hurts him standing.
4) Both fighters 100% TD Accuracy & <70% TD Defense. Both fighters attempting > .2 SUBs / 15 minutes.
5) BetOnline opened Prochazka SUB +800, now down to +750. DraftKings opened +750.
6) FanDuel opened +1400 & got hit to +1200.
7) FanDuel better Ends SUB price than sharp books have for just Jiri via SUB.
8) BetOnline -800 fight ends ITD. DK -650.
9) Jiri 3-1 Career to the SUB & Pereira 0-1 Career.
10) Jan B. made Pereira look real bad on the mat.

Why Sabatini KO +1200 & Ends KO +345 (Wynn) ?
Both of these guys are elite BJJ fighters with extensive resumes on the ground including each of them possessing a 12-0 career record to the SUB Prop. Now, they're facing off against one another and the SUB is favored to occur despite neither man having been submitted in live MMA competition. Sabatini had his arm snapped by James Gonzalez (TKO) without tapping and Lopes was TKO'd via strikes in his only 2 stoppage losses. Sabatini showed off vicious GNP vs. Almeida last fight and Almeida chose to quit with that choke IMHO. I think Lopes would take the beating until a KO/TKO and I think Sabatini is chinny. At +3xx this is a no brainer and most books +320 or below and have adjusted down.

If I am up on the night I will sprinkle Sabatini KO2 as well (Lopes both losses in Rd. 2, Evloev Rd. 2 was bad look as well)

Why Pavlovich?

I am picking Pavlovich outright here and I think the evidence suggests I should do so. Pavlovich is 3-0 in DEC's, he comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background, he trains with world class fighters, he was preparing for the date, and he is on a long and ferocious win streak. I have seen him achieve takedowns, mount, knee on belly, and dominate his opponents. I have also seen him strike for 5 hard 5's and not get discouraged when his TD's failed. I think Pavlovich can be clipped or taken down but I think it's more likely that Pavlovich would clip Aspinall and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Pavlovich is simply the better wrestler and gets TD's of his own.

If I am up on the night, I will sprinkle Pavlovich Rd. 2 +830 & Rd. 3 +1900 insane for me given his more proven cardio over a long term sample.

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The most important message is God bless you all, good luck on all your bets, and I appreciate your support whether you tail, fade, or you're indifferent. Thanks for having my back, & let's cash these bets! Make sure you practice good bankroll management, we have been doing well these last few weeks and I like the spots this week so I am attacking the board but no matter what, we never chase. There is always next week and I already have some spots I like for the card ahead so stay tuned tomorrow/Monday for potential early bets for next week.