THE PUBLIC SENTIMENT INSTITUTE | Florida Statewide Survey · April 29, 2026
PRESS RELEASE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
New Poll: Fishback Leads Florida Governor's Race 43%–38%;Voters Strongly Favor Florida's Homeland Identity Over a Global Hub Vision
Statewide Likely Voter Survey · N = 687 · April 27, 2026 · MOE ±3.7pp
TALLAHASSEE, FL — A new statewide survey of 687 Florida likely voters conducted on April 27, 2026 by The Public Sentiment Institute finds Republican James Fishback leading Democrat David Jolly by 43%–38% in a general election ballot test, with 17% still undecided. A separate ballot test pairing Republican Byron Donalds against Jolly shows that race tied at 40%–40%. A third question measured voter sentiment between two competing visions for Florida's future, finding that voters broadly prefer a vision centered on homeland identity over one focused on global financial growth.
KEY FINDINGS AT A GLANCE
Q1 — James Fishback (R) vs. David Jolly (D)
Q1. If the Florida Governor Election were held today, who would you vote for? [James Fishback (R) vs. David Jolly (D)]
Topline Results
Response | LV % |
James Fishback (R) | 43% |
David Jolly (D) | 38% |
Not sure / undecided | 17% |
James Fishback leads David Jolly 43%–38% among Florida likely voters, a 5-point advantage with 17% still undecided. This lead holds across multiple demographic and regional subgroups.
By Age & Gender
Total | 18–29 | 30–44 | 45–64 | 65+ | Female | Male | |
James Fishback (R) | 43% | 38% | 47% | 46% | 40% | 41% | 46% |
David Jolly (D) | 38% | 42% | 34% | 36% | 39% | 36% | 40% |
Undecided | 17% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 13% |
By Race / Ethnicity
Total | Asian | Black | Hispanic | White (College) | White (No College) | |
James Fishback (R) | 43% | 14% | 30% | 42% | 42% | 49% |
David Jolly (D) | 38% | 70% | 51% | 40% | 40% | 31% |
Undecided | 17% | 16% | 19% | 14% | 16% | 18% |
By Education
Total | Bachelor's Degree | Some College | HS or Less | Postgrad | |
James Fishback (R) | 43% | 34% | 46% | 45% | 46% |
David Jolly (D) | 38% | 46% | 30% | 39% | 38% |
Undecided | 17% | 16% | 22% | 14% | 15% |
By Region & Party ID
S. FL | Orlando | Tampa Bay | SW FL | SE FL | NE FL | N. Central | Panhandle | Dem | Ind | Rep | |
Fishback (R) | 44% | 44% | 41% | 61% | 16% | 43% | 41% | 40% | 5% | 33% | 73% |
Jolly (D) | 39% | 34% | 45% | 22% | 64% | 32% | 41% | 25% | 82% | 37% | 8% |
Undecided | 15% | 19% | 12% | 14% | 20% | 23% | 17% | 34% | 12% | 27% | 17% |
Q2 — Byron Donalds (R) vs. David Jolly (D)
Q2. If the Florida Governor Election were held today, who would you vote for? [Byron Donalds (R) vs. David Jolly (D)]
Topline Results
Response | LV % |
Byron Donalds (R) | 40% |
David Jolly (D) | 40% |
Not sure / undecided | 16% |
Byron Donalds and David Jolly are statistically tied at 40% each among Florida likely voters, with 16% undecided. The race is fully competitive with significant room for movement before election day.
By Age & Gender
Total | 18–29 | 30–44 | 45–64 | 65+ | Female | Male | |
Byron Donalds (R) | 40% | 26% | 38% | 43% | 45% | 34% | 45% |
David Jolly (D) | 40% | 49% | 36% | 40% | 40% | 38% | 43% |
Undecided | 16% | 22% | 18% | 14% | 14% | 22% | 10% |
By Race / Ethnicity
Total | Asian | Black | Hispanic | White (College) | White (No College) | |
Byron Donalds (R) | 40% | 0% | 25% | 28% | 42% | 47% |
David Jolly (D) | 40% | 70% | 52% | 45% | 43% | 33% |
Undecided | 16% | 30% | 18% | 18% | 13% | 16% |
By Education
Total | Bachelor's Degree | Some College | HS or Less | Postgrad | |
Byron Donalds (R) | 40% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 38% |
David Jolly (D) | 40% | 48% | 30% | 44% | 45% |
Undecided | 16% | 11% | 23% | 12% | 18% |
By Region & Party ID
S. FL | Orlando | Tampa Bay | SW FL | SE FL | NE FL | N. Central | Panhandle | Dem | Ind | Rep | |
Donalds (R) | 35% | 44% | 31% | 60% | 16% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 3% | 29% | 69% |
Jolly (D) | 40% | 37% | 51% | 27% | 64% | 35% | 40% | 25% | 85% | 37% | 11% |
Undecided | 19% | 17% | 13% | 6% | 20% | 15% | 9% | 25% | 10% | 27% | 15% |
Q3 — Which Version of Florida Do Voters Prefer?
Q3. Which version of Florida do you prefer?
This question was designed to measure how Florida voters respond to two distinct visions for the state's future. The first option — prioritizing Florida's homeland identity, including its natural environment, citrus heritage, and local communities — reflects the central message of James Fishback's campaign. The second option — transforming Florida into a global financial and business hub — is more aligned with the economic positioning advanced by Byron Donalds. Voters were presented with these choices without candidate attribution.
Topline Results
Response | LV % | N |
Prioritize Florida's homeland identity (nature, citrus, local communities) | 67% | 442 |
Transform Florida into a global financial & business hub | 18% | 122 |
Another vision for the state | 7% | 49 |
Neutral / no opinion | 8% | 83 |
By a nearly four-to-one margin, Florida likely voters chose protecting the state's natural identity, local communities, and agricultural heritage over transforming Florida into a global financial and business center. The homeland identity option — aligned with Fishback's campaign message — received 67.2% support, while the global hub vision — closer to Donalds' economic positioning — drew 18.1%. This preference was broad-based and consistent across party, age, racial, and regional lines.
By Age & Gender
Total | 18–29 | 30–44 | 45–64 | 65+ | Female | Male | |
Homeland identity | 67% | 65% | 67% | 72% | 64% | 70% | 64% |
Global hub | 18% | 21% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 12% | 23% |
Another vision | 7% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 8% |
No opinion | 8% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 5% |
By Race / Ethnicity
Total | Asian | Black | Hispanic | White (College) | White (No College) | |
Homeland identity | 67% | 65% | 46% | 58% | 66% | 75% |
Global hub | 18% | 32% | 37% | 24% | 19% | 12% |
Another vision | 7% | 0% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 6% |
No opinion | 8% | 4% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 7% |
By Education
Total | Bachelor's Degree | Some College | HS or Less | Postgrad | |
Homeland identity | 67% | 64% | 64% | 72% | 70% |
Global hub | 18% | 20% | 20% | 15% | 18% |
Another vision | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 8% |
No opinion | 8% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 5% |
By Region & Party ID
S. FL | Orlando | Tampa Bay | SW FL | SE FL | NE FL | N. Central | Panhandle | Dem | Ind | Rep | |
Homeland | 65% | 70% | 66% | 87% | 66% | 65% | 70% | 45% | 69% | 77% | 62% |
Global hub | 24% | 13% | 18% | 8% | 0% | 14% | 17% | 38% | 16% | 9% | 23% |
Other vision | 2% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 21% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 5% |
No opinion | 8% | 7% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 10% |
Candidate Comparison — Fishback vs. Donalds vs. Jolly
Overview
The survey tested two different Republican candidates — James Fishback and Byron Donalds — against the same Democratic opponent, David Jolly, in separate ballot questions. Because both tests used the same electorate and the same opponent, the results offer a meaningful basis for comparison across demographic groups and regions.
Overall, Fishback leads Jolly by 5 points (43%–38%), while Donalds is tied with Jolly at 40%–40%. That represents a net 5-point difference in how the two Republicans perform against the same opponent in the same survey.
By age, Fishback's advantage over Donalds is most pronounced among younger voters. Among 18–29-year-olds, Fishback receives 38% to Donalds' 26% — a 12-point gap. Among voters 30–44, the difference is 9 points (47% vs. 38%). Among voters 65 and older, the pattern reverses: Donalds receives 45% to Fishback's 40%.
On gender, both candidates run stronger with men than women, but the gap is smaller for Fishback. Fishback receives 41% among women and 46% among men — a 5-point gender gap. Donalds receives 34% among women and 45% among men, a gap of 11 points. Fishback's stronger performance with women accounts for much of his overall advantage.
Among racial and ethnic groups, the two candidates perform similarly among White voters with and without college degrees. The largest differences appear among voters of color. Among Hispanic voters, Fishback receives 42% compared to Donalds' 28% — a 14-point difference. Among Black voters, Fishback receives 30% and Donalds 25%. Among Asian voters, Fishback receives 14% and Donalds 0%, though the Asian sample is small.
Regionally, Fishback runs stronger in South Florida (+9 points over Donalds) and Tampa Bay (+10 points). Donalds outperforms Fishback in North-Central Florida (+10 points), the Panhandle (+9 points), and Northeast Florida (+6 points). The two candidates run essentially even in Orlando and Southwest Florida. South Florida and Tampa Bay are considerably larger vote markets than North-Central Florida and the Panhandle, which affects the statewide totals.
By party, Fishback consolidates Republican support at 73% compared to Donalds' 69%, a 4-point difference. Among Independents, Fishback receives 33% and Donalds 29%, also a 4-point gap. Both candidates draw similarly small percentages of Democratic voters (5% and 3%, respectively).
Side-by-Side Data Tables
The tables below present the survey results for both candidates across each demographic group.
Topline: Both Republicans vs. David Jolly (D)
Fishback (R) | Donalds (R) | Difference | |
Republican support | 43% | 40% | Fishback +3 |
David Jolly (D) | 38% | 40% | Donalds +2 (Jolly vs. R) |
Undecided | 17% | 16% | Even |
Margin vs. Jolly | Fishback +5 | Tied | Net: +5 Fishback |
By Age Group
Age Group | Fishback (R) | Donalds (R) | Difference |
18–29 | 38% | 26% | Fishback +12 |
30–44 | 47% | 38% | Fishback +9 |
45–64 | 46% | 43% | Fishback +3 |
65+ | 40% | 45% | Donalds +5 |
By Gender
Gender | Fishback (R) | Donalds (R) | Difference |
Female | 41% | 34% | Fishback +7 |
Male | 46% | 45% | Fishback +1 |
By Race / Ethnicity
Race / Ethnicity | Fishback (R) | Donalds (R) | Difference |
Asian | 14% | 0% | Fishback +14 |
Black | 30% | 25% | Fishback +5 |
Hispanic | 42% | 28% | Fishback +14 |
White (College) | 42% | 42% | Even |
White (No College) | 49% | 47% | Fishback +2 |
By Region
Region | Fishback (R) | Donalds (R) | Difference |
South Florida | 44% | 35% | Fishback +9 |
Orlando | 44% | 44% | Even |
Tampa Bay | 41% | 31% | Fishback +10 |
SW Florida | 61% | 60% | Even |
SE Florida | 16% | 16% | Even |
NE Florida | 43% | 49% | Donalds +6 |
N. Central Florida | 41% | 51% | Donalds +10 |
Panhandle | 40% | 49% | Donalds +9 |
By Party ID
Party ID | Fishback (R) | Donalds (R) | Difference |
Democrats | 5% | 3% | Fishback +2 |
Independents / Other | 33% | 29% | Fishback +4 |
Republicans | 73% | 69% | Fishback +4 |
Methodology & Survey Notes
This survey was conducted by The Public Sentiment Institute on April 27, 2026 from 5:00 PM to 11:00 PM EST using the Pollfish online panel. Respondents were Florida registered voters, and a likely voter model was applied to the sample.
The final weighted sample consists of N = 687 likely voters. The sample was weighted by race/education, gender, education/gender, age/gender, and region to accurately represent the likely voter electorate from the voter file. The design effect (DEFF) is 1.352. The margin of error is approximately ±3.7 percentage points at 95% confidence.
Survey questions were presented in the order shown in this report. Ballot test questions (Q1, Q2) presented candidates in randomized order. The vision question (Q3) presented the two options without candidate attribution.
The Public Sentiment Institute · N=687 Likely Voters · April 27, 2026 · MOE ±3.7pp at 95% confidence · DEFF 1.352