Emails, William H. Frey, demographer and senior fellow, Metropolitan Policy Program, the Brookings Institution, April 9, 2014
From: wgselby@statesman.com [wgselby@statesman.com]
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2014 12:39 PM
To: William Frey
Subject: William Frey - Reporter in TX; Austin No. 1?
Good afternoon.
For a fact check, I am interested in learning your latest on how Austin stacks up as a draw for young Americans. Visit by phone or email?
We are checking a claim that more “25- to 34-year-olds are moving to Austin than any other city in America."
?
Thanks.
g.
W. Gardner Selby
PolitiFact Texas
Austin American-Statesman
12:33 p.m.
Well, there is two ways to look at it. If you look at the numeric gains (rather than rates) which I think is a more accurate measure of where migrants were going, then Austin fell from no. 1 (out of 51 metros with one million pop), for the three year period 2006-2009, (meaning periods 2006-7, 2007-8, 2008-9)to fifth in 2009-2012 (see attached)
But if you prefer to look at rates per 100 existing population, then Austin is second in 2009-2012;
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO Metro Area 3.0
Austin-Round Rock, TX Metro Area 2.7
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Metro Area 2.5
Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area 1.9
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Metro Area 1.6
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area 1.3
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA Metro Area 1.2
Note these are the most recent American Community Survey data for three year periods, released last Fall (I think the one year data are two sparse for sufficient sample sizes) Note also, the three years numbers refer to annual average numbers over the three years. Simple enough ?!!
Let me know if Qs
Bill
William H Frey, Ph.D.
Demographer and Senior Fellow
Metropolitan Policy Program
The Brookings Institution
________________________________________
1:01 p.m.
see below
William H Frey, Ph.D.
Demographer and Senior Fellow
Metropolitan Policy Program
The Brookings Institution
________________________________________
From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) [wgselby@statesman.com]
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2014 1:43 PM
To: William Frey
Subject: RE: William Frey - Reporter in TX; Austin No. 1?
Appreciated!
More questions:
1) How would you write out the rates; is it x net new 25-34 y olds per 100,000 total residents?
x net per 100 25-34 year olds
2) Why are the number counts better (besides being easier to grasp)?
its not affected by the size of the destination population In other words, among all the places in the country: which places are gaining the biggest aggregate numbers of migrants. The rate, is more of an "impact" measure: how are recent migrants affecting the destination populatoin.
3) Do you have perspective/data showing Austin being near the top or not over the past x years (however far back this has been researched)?
It has both educational and employment opportunities relevant to young people who are looking to advance- especially during a period when many other places have taken sharp employment hits. Even if young people coming to Austin are not getting their dream jobs right away, they will be networking with others who might make that happen. This will not be the case in many other places
4) Any detailed thoughts on why Austin slipped, ranking-wise? Well, as the economy slowly revives elsewhere, there will be competitors but being number two or number five out of the nation's 50 major metros isn't bad.
Thanks again.
g.