Email, Peck Young, executive director, Austin Community College Center for Public Policy & Political Studies, Oct. 13, 2016

From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Sent: Thursday, October 13, 2016 3:30 PM

Subject: Methodology thoughts?

As mentioned on the phone, I am curious for a fact check in what you make of Bruce Elfant’s provided method for concluding 90 percent of the county’s eligible voters have registered to vote?

Elfant responded to our request for backup information with the email below.

?

Thanks,

g.

W. Gardner Selby

Reporter / News

Austin American-Statesman

PolitiFact Texas

o 512.445.3644

e wgselby@statesman.com

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From: Bruce Elfant

Sent: Wednesday, October 12, 2016 5:49 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: 90% of Eligible Travis County Citizens are Registered to Vote

Hi Gardner:

The U. S. Census publishes an annual American Community Survey that enables us to estimate the Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) for Travis County. The most recent CVAP estimate is for 2015.

Year:   2014        2015

Total Travis County Population: 1,151,145        1,176,558

Male Under 18 Years:        (135,568)       (137,334)

Male Over 18 years & Not A US Citizen:  (69,585)            (73,613)

Female Under 18 Years:  (129,641)           (130,608)

Female Over 18 years & Not A US Citizen:        (56,825)            (56,926)

Citizen Voting Age Population:  759,526  778,077

We didn’t want to base our percentage on a number that was a year old so we estimated the annual population increase using the 2014 and 2015 Census CVAP estimates.

2014 CVAP = 759,526

2015 CVAP = 778,077

Estimated Annual CVAP Increase = 18,551   (778,077 – 759,526)

2016 CVAP population increase though mid-October = 16,232  (18,551/12= 1546*10.5)

2016 CVAP + 2016 10.5 months estimate = 794,309

The counter on our web site as of 5:00 Wednesday indicates that there are currently about 717,694 registered voters but we may still have 20,000 or more voter registration applications to process and don’t know how many of those are new voters versus addresses updates. At this point right at 90% of CVAP are registered to vote.

Voter Registrations                       2016 CVAP           

717,694                              /               794,309             =                90.35%

I hope this helps.

Bruce

Bruce Elfant I Travis County Tax Assessor-Collector & Voter Registrar

3:49 p.m.

Gardner: I have been working with US Census data for political reasons since I was an undergraduate at UT in the ’60. Specifically I have worked with Citizen Voting Age Population data since it became available because I have done redistricting since the 80s. It is not as precise as headcount data but Federal Courts have accepted it for decades as determinative of voting population so Bruce can and must.

I checked his math and his assumption for 2016 CVAP is reasonable. I know of no data to contradict it.  As far as the Voter Registration number he is using I have done enough VR drives to know that not all of the approx. 20,000 pending cards are duplicates or address changes. Therefore using what he has verified as of now is a conservative number of what he has registered.

Based on this and the math I checked it is clear that this year 90+ of the Citizen Voting Age Population  of Travis County has been registered as of now.

Peck Young

Executive Director

ACC Center for Public Policy & Political Studies