Emails, John C. Green, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, University of Akron, March 23-24, 2015

From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Sent: Monday, March 23, 2015 1:54 PM

To: Green,John C

Subject: Texas reporter, urgent inquiry for a fact check of Sen. Ted Cruz

Good afternoon.

In declaring for president, Sen. Ted Cruz said today that roughly half of born-again Christians aren’t voting. I haven’t learned his basis for this claim nor have I found relevant evidence. Can you assist?

Seth McKee at Texas Tech University urged me to reach out to you.

I would be happy to learn more by email or phone.

Appreciated.

W. Gardner Selby

Reporter / News

Austin American-Statesman

PolitiFact Texas

From: Green,John C

Sent: Monday, March 23, 2015 2:28 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: RE: Texas reporter, urgent inquiry for a fact check of Sen. Ted Cruz

It depends upon the election, state, and the particular definition of born again Christians.

In competitive states, white born again Protestants vote at a slightly higher rate than the national average. In the 2012 presidential election, turnout was about 61% (just a bit above the national turnout of 58% of eligible voters).

In less competitive, evangelical turnout was lower.  It one takes all born again Christians—which includes non-whites and non-Protestants—turnout is equal to turnout generally, and often that is about 50% of .  Turnout is often lower in primaries as well.

Having said this, it is worth noting that it takes a lot of effort to mobilize all kinds of voters, including evangelicals. Getting to 61% took a huge effort.

So if Sen. Cruz is taking the broadest definition of the group and looking at all elections, there is some merit to his statement. But if he means the narrower group in presidential battleground states, he is understating the case.

On Mar 23, 2015, at 5:59 PM, Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) <wgselby@statesman.com> wrote:

How did you get to the 61 percent figure you cited below? And the 50 percent figure?

11:15 a.m.

March 24, 2015

These estimates come from surveys. The 61 per came from the natl survey of religion and politics conducted in 2012 by myself and colleagues. We have done this survey since 1992. It has very precise measures of religion. The 50 per comes from surveys that only ask the born again question, typically media surveys.