Email, Ray Perryman, president, the Perryman Group, Dec. 11, 2014

On Dec 11, 2014, at 11:16 AM, "Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)" <wgselby@statesman.com wrote:

Is it correct that if the state's unauthorized residents were removed, Texas would enter a recession? Why so?

 g.

 W. Gardner Selby

 Reporter / News

 Austin American-Statesman

 PolitiFact Texas

12:02 p.m.

Dec. 11, 2014

I just had a chance to look at the numbers.  The answer is that it would depend on the circumstances.  If the entire work force were removed quickly with no time to adjust, it would cause a recession.

That outcome is very unlikely.  If it were done on a more phased basis with time to respond, it would still likely take a heavy toll, but an all-out recession might be avoidable.  The difficulty lies in the percentage of the Texas work force filled by undocumented workers.  Even if every unemployed person in the Texas labor force today could and would fill one of those slots (which is obviously not the case), the state would be short several hundred thousand workers.  Those jobs would have to be filled by recruiting from other areas (which would also be facing similar situations, though in most cases not as severe) or, replaced by technology (which takes time, etc.).  It would also disproportionately affect some key industries that support growth and exports (such as construction and agriculture).  I guess the bottom line is that, under any circumstances, it would cause a lot of disruptions.  Under most circumstances, it would cause a recession with he magnitude and duration depending on the specific plan.  Under a few programs (a very gradual phase-in combined with mechanisms to replace the workers with "documented" ones, which would require real, comprehensive immigration reform), a recession could be averted.  Whatever the politics, the sheer numbers make a quick deportation very difficult to manage.