Emails, responses to PolitiFact Texas, Lloyd Potter, state demographer, San Antonio, Jan. 16 and 17, 2013

434 pm

...Using our 2010 Census based projections for Texas we have two migration scenarios. One is using migration patterns from 2000-2010 and trending them forward (1.0 scenario), the other uses half of the rate from 2000-2010 (.5 scenario). The .5 scenario projects that there will be more persons of Hispanic descent (Latino) in Texas than non-Hispanic whites (Anglo) in 2019 (in that year we project there to be 11,726,749 Anglos and 11,768,038 Latinos in Texas). The 1.0 scenario has this occurring two years before in 2017 (in this scenario we project 11,791,520 Anglos and  11,853,226 Latinos in that year).  So the statement is likely to be correct if both of our assumptions about migration hold true.

Data tool for projections: http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Projections/Data.aspx

Lloyd

-----Original Message-----

From: Selby, Gardner Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2013 4:35 PM

To: Lloyd Potter

Subject: RE: PolitiFact Texas ?

Excellent, thanks.

It's one thing for Latinos to out-number Anglos. Will they also comprise the majority of all residents? Any figures to weigh per that precise claim?

1014 pm

Well it all depends on how you break out race and ethnicity. Texas has been a minority majority state for some time (some time ago we estimated when that happened but can't remember the exact date without going back to our archive or estimating again).  But that means there are more non-Anglos than Anglos in Texas, yet we still refer to Anglos as the majority race/ethnic group.

If the question is, will Hispanics make up more than half of the population in six years? The answer, from our projections, is no.

We project that will happen in 2040 under the .5 scenario and in 2036 under the 1.0 scenario.

If the question is will Hispanics be the largest race/ethnic group in six years, the answer is yes if either of our projection migration scenarios plays out.

My guess is that Mr. Bush probably was referring the lat(t)er, though, the way it was stated, it could be interpreted to mean the former.

-----Original Message-----

From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) [mailto:wgselby@statesman.com]

Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2013 5:22 PM

To: Lloyd Potter

Subject: Following Up, PolitiFact Texas ?

On another front, you've cautioned before about uncertainties in projections. I am pasting below part of a Times story on birth rates. Thoughts vis a vis when Latinos comprise the  majority of Texas residents?

836 pm, Jan. 17, 2013

Our projections factor in trends in changing fertility among all racial and ethnic groups through 2010. In particular, we noted the declining fertility among Hispanic women in the last few years. Of course the caution comes in here, where if fertility among Hispanics declines at a more rapid pace than the trend we used and more rapidly than other racial/ethnic groups, the time it takes for Hispanics become a majority race/ethnic group, or to exceed 50% of the population will take longer.