Emails from polling experts responding to PolitiFact Texas on gender gap issues, July 28-29, 2016
(please read this from bottom up)
(Daron Shaw)
11:14 a.m.
July 29, 2016
RE: Gallup--That is what they are doing. I continue to strongly register my objection to using a particular (contentious) stat from one organization that is NOT corroborated by any other groups, including the one relying on EXIT POLLS. (Not even mentioning the flat-out wrong aspects of the full quote.)
No affiliation with any presidential campaign for 2016.
D
From: Selby, Gardner
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2016 10:51:30 AM
Subject: Much appreciated; two more q's
Summing up, Gallup reaches its conclusion about Obama experiencing the biggest gender gap by combining figures for both candidates.
Legitimate?
ALSO: I neglected to ask each of you if you’re involved in any of the presidential campaigns this year. If so, in what capacity?
THANKS.
g.
(Debbie Walsh, director, the Center for American Women in Politics, the Eagleton Institute, Rutgers University)
10:16 p.m.
July 28, 2016
Yes!!
On Jul 28, 2016, at 9:48 PM, Celinda Lake wrote:
This is celinda lake. 1) we agree there is confusion. 2) we agree with the definition of voting between men and women based on exits which is what you have here. 3) we think the gap was large in 2012 but not largest. And 4) we think it is likely to be largest in 2016. For one thing a woman candidate may well accentuate it
From: Shaw, Daron R Sent: Thursday, July 28, 2016 9:43 PM Subject: RE: Reporter urgently following up for fact check due Friday |
Gardner,
I believe that Prof. Kaufmann mentioned that there is substantial disagreement with respect to how to measure the gender gap. This point is proven by the “confusion” alluded to in your previous email.
I would also point to the post on this TODAY on the Pew site, which uses the standard suggested by Prof. Kaufmann:
These data, based on exit polls (as opposed to surveys conducted before or just after the election), indicate that the largest gender gap in presidential voting from 1972-2012 was in 2000. The gap in 2012 is large, but not the largest.
Just to clarify my earlier point, I think the statement that President Obama enjoyed the “largest gender gap in U.S. election history” is almost certainly hyperbolic (if that’s the exact quote). Even if we were to agree upon measurement and the data were to show a gender gap in 2012 that is statistically greater than that for other recent presidential elections, Richards’ claim goes well beyond that.
The claim is that the gap is the greatest ever, and we don’t have data to test that notion. The ANES data referenced in the analyses we are referring to goes back to 1952; the Gallup data go back to 1952; the exit polling data goes back to 1972. Moreover, even these data center on presidential voting—not every election.
Just my two cents.
Sincerely,
Daron
From: Celinda Lake
Sent: Thursday, July 28, 2016 6:43 PM
Subject: Re: Reporter urgently following up for fact check due Friday
1) Walsh is right 2) we sent you time series. Did you get it. It is the biggest gap
From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) Sent: Thursday, July 28, 2016 7:21 PM Subject: Reporter urgently following up for fact check due Friday |
Hello again. I write with urgency again hoping to make clear, if possible, the term “gender gap” and to close in on checking Cecile Richards’ claim this week that President Obama in 2012 enjoyed the largest gender gap in U.S. election history.
I plan to complete our review Friday.
To this moment, it seems to me, the gender gap has been defined three ways.
Debbie Walsh says it’s the gap between female and male support for the victorious presidential candidate.
Karen Kaufmann says it’s the gap gauged for the Democratic nominee, regardless of who won the election.
And Gallup in 2012 defined the gap in a different way (see the press release here, pointed out by Celinda Lake’s office) by combining figures. By this metric, Gallup says, Obama that year enjoyed the biggest gender gap since the organization began such measurements in 1952.
???
As before, I seek your on-the-record guidance and comments.
Much appreciated.
g.
W. Gardner Selby
Reporter / News
Austin American-Statesman
PolitiFact Texas