Emails, Lloyd Potter, Texas state demographer, Jan. 9, 2014

5:03 pm

Jan. 9, 2014

From U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, between 2010 and 2011, estimated population change for Texas was  389,095 or 1,066 persons per day. Of this about 55% was from natural increase (births-deaths) and about 45% was from net migration (these numbers are rounded and the residual distributed to natural increase and net migration).

Between 2011 and 2012, estimated population change for Texas was  427,425 or  1,171 persons per day. Of this about 51% was from natural increase and 49% from net migration.

5:23 pm

Between July 1, 2012 and July 1, 2013 Texas is estimated to have added 387,397 persons or 1,061 per day (U.S. Census estimates). As you probably know, they’ve not released components of change yet for 2013.

From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) [mailto:wgselby@statesman.com]

Sent: Thursday, January 09, 2014 5:52 PM

To: Lloyd Potter

Subject: RE: Census bureau response

1)          Based on the census data, it looks to me right now like Texas between 2012 and 2013 ranked fourth in percentage population growth behind ND UT and CO, but second since 2010 behind ND. In raw growth, TX ranked first among the states in both time periods, by wide margins?

2)          I am confused as to whether the census figures that get us to 1,000 a day take into account deaths and individuals leaving states.

?

g.

8:24 pm

1)          Yes, if you take DC out of the mix (which it appears you did).

2)          In producing estimates, births and deaths are added and subtracted from the base population (census) as are in and out migrants (though in practice, for migration, I believe an estimated net migration rate is applied rather than adding and subtracting migrants).