To: guardian.letters@guardian.co.uk
Wildly optimistic or semi-delusional?
Dear Editor,
I am writing in response to the article on your opinion pages by Dr. Rebecca Huntley published on your website on the 1st of November under the title “Despite years of exposure to climate science, I don’t believe we are headed for total societal collapse”.
In the piece the author talks frankly about her psychological tendency of looking away from the terrifying conclusions of the latest scientific reports, an impulse no doubt familiar to many of us. Yet, had she forced herself to examine the latest scientific developments more closely then she might not be so sanguine in her views as to the possibility of societal collapse from the escalating threat of the climate crisis.
If we take the trouble of listening to the most eminent earth scientists they are not at all subtle on this point:
- Prof. Tim Lenton, Director of the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
- Prof. Will Steffen, Former Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
Whilst no one has a crystal ball, these are not voices to be dismissed lightly. Climate breakdown has a threat-multiplying effect, which will increasingly trigger systemic cascading and compounding risks that begin to destabilize the socio-ecological systems that are foundational to our societies continued functioning.
Take for example Chatham House’s recent climate risk assessment, which warns that by the 2040’s the risk of multi-breadbasket failures due to climate shocks will be rising rapidly around the world. Or think through the impacts of the projected multimeter sea-level rise for maritime trade - the lifeblood of today's globally interconnected economy - every port will need to be relocated!
Yet, we don’t need to look to future projections by scientists for warnings of the failure of our social-systems in the face of ever worsening climatic damages, we need only tune in to the unfolding suffering from the floods in Pakistan or Australia, deadly heatwaves in India or France, droughts in Syria or the southwestern US states. As the authors of the latest Lancet Countdown report make plain, we already “see how climate change is driving severe health impacts all around the world.”
Dr. Huntley talks of her “faith in capital to move quickly and decisively. It’s already happening”, but this sounds like a case of blind faith - a careful examination of the evidence again looks extremely bleak. The world’s largest oil and gas companies are set to invest $930 billion over this decade in new fossil fuel projects. Whilst the largest investment banks such as J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, etc. have continued to pour hundreds of billions into the sector since the Paris agreement. As The Guardian has previously reported these ‘carbon bombs’ simply cannot be allowed to go off if we are to have any hope of meeting our internally agreed climate goals.
It was recently calculated that fossil fuel companies already own seven times more reserves than can be burned if we are to stay below 1.5C of global warming - yet they continue to explore for more, with government backing! Mark Camanale, CEO of Carbon Tracker points out that if we look at current investment strategies then “we are heading way beyond 3C degrees”. In other words the global political and financial elites are still marching us towards catastrophe.
It is this bleak prognosis grounded in the harsh scientific realities of our age that is motivating an escalating campaign of civil resistance against the fossil fuel economy around the world. I now believe that this ‘climate insurgency’ is the best chance of survival our civilization has, but for it to succeed, millions more people will need to actively participate in this struggle.
I am forced to conclude that Dr. Huntley’s views are both (to use her own words) “wildly optimistic” and “semi-delusional”, as are so many people’s on this matter. Sufficient action can only occur if we are able to lean into our discomfort, and open ourselves to an emotional reckoning with the reality of this mess we are in, millions of lives may count on us finding the collective courage to do so. I hope that many more of us speak out and form or join active communities that are engaging with that reality soon enough to avert disaster!
Yours sincerely,
Dr. Aaron Theirry,
Earth-system scientist
Co-founder of Scientists for Extinction Rebellion