METHODOLOGY

Change Research surveyed 1069 registered voters in North Carolina from January 31 - February 4, 2026. We used the following sources to recruit respondents:

  • targeted advertisements on Facebook and Instagram, as well as across the web via Facebook's ad platform
  • text messages sent, via the Echo19 platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey’s sample universe, based on their voter file data[1]

Regardless of which source a respondent came from, they were directed to a survey hosted on Surveymonkey’s website.

Ads placed on social media targeted registered voters in North Carolina. Those who indicated that they were not registered to vote were terminated. As the survey fielded, Change Research used dynamic online sampling: adjusting ad budgets, lowering budgets for ads targeting groups that were overrepresented, and raising budgets for ads targeting groups that were underrepresented, so that the final sample was roughly representative of the population across different groups. The survey was conducted in English.

The survey was commissioned by Sam Hunt and conducted online by Change Research. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, 2024 presidential vote, and region. Weighting parameters are based on the demographic composition of registered voters in North Carolina, based on voter file data. That is, if x% of registered voters in the state were women, women would be weighted to x%. 2024 general election data was based on data from the North Carolina Secretary of State.

The modeled margin of error* for this survey is 3.1%, which uses effective sample sizes** that adjust for the design effect of weighting. This research, like all public opinion research, does entail some additional unmeasured error.

* We adopt The Pew Research Center's convention for the term "modeled margin of error"(1) (mMOE) to indicate that our surveys are not simple random samples in the pure sense, similar to any survey that has either non-response bias or for which the general population was not invited at random. A common, if imperfect, convention for reporting survey results is to use a single, survey-level mMOE based on a normal approximation. This is a poor approximation for proportion estimates close to 0 or 1. However, it is a useful communication tool in many settings and is reasonable in places where the proportion of interest is close to 50%. We report this normal approximation for our surveys assuming a proportion estimate of 50%.

** The effective sample size adjusts for the weighting applied to respondents and is calculated using Kish's approximation (2).

(1) https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/01/26/for-weighting-online-opt-in-samples-what-matters-most/

(2) Kish, Leslie. Survey Sampling, 1965.

For more information, contact Stephen Clermont at stephen@changeresearch.com

Reported Questions

  1. Are you:
  • A man
  • A woman

  1. In what year were you born? [TEXT BOX]

  1. In what ZIP code do you currently live? [TEXT BOX]

  1. What is your race?
  • White / Caucasian
  • Hispanic or Latino/a
  • Black or African American
  • Asian / Pacific Islander
  • American Indian or Alaska Native
  • Other (please specify): [text box]

[IF DOES NOT INCLUDE HISPANIC] Are you from a Hispanic, Latino/a or Spanish-speaking background?

  • Yes
  • No

 

  1. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
  • High school diploma or less
  • Some college, but no degree
  • Associate’s degree, or two-year college degree
  • Bachelor’s degree, or four-year college degree
  • Graduate degree

  1. Are you registered to vote in North Carolina?
  • Yes
  • No - Terminate
  • Not sure - Terminate

  1. And regardless of how you are registered, do you think of yourself as a: [RANDOMIZE DEM/REP]
  • Democrat
  • Republican
  • Independent/Other

[IF DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN] Do you consider yourself a:

  • Strong Democrat/Republican
  • Not so strong Democrat/Republican

[IF INDEPENDENT/OTHER] Do you consider yourself closer to: [RANDOMIZE DEM/REP]

  • The Democrats
  • The Republicans
  • Neither

  1. How did you vote in the 2024 election for President, or for some reason were you unable to vote?
  • Kamala Harris, the Democrat
  • Donald Trump, the Republican
  • A third party candidate
  • Not registered/Too young/Ineligible  
  • Did not vote

  1. There will be an election in November 2026 for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and other state and local offices. How motivated are you to vote in this election on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you are not motivated at all and 10 means you are extremely motivated?
  • 0 - Not motivated at all
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10 - Extremely motivated

  1. When considering politics and government, do you think of yourself as: (Choose all that apply)
  • Progressive
  • Liberal
  • Moderate
  • Conservative
  • MAGA
  • Libertarian
  • Independent
  • None of these apply

  1. Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the direction things are going in America today?
  • Satisfied
  • Not satisfied
  • Not sure

  1. Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the direction things are going in North Carolina today?
  • Satisfied
  • Not satisfied
  • Not sure

  1. Would you say the 21st century, the years 2001 to 2025 have been mostly a success or failure?
  • Success
  • Failure
  • Neither one
  • Not sure

  1. When today’s children in North Carolina grow up, do you think they will be:
  • Better off than people are today
  • Worse off than people are today
  • About the same as people are today
  • Not sure

[IF BETTER OFF] In what way do you think children in North Carolina will be better off than people are today?

[IF WORSE OFF] In what way do you think children in North Carolina will be worse off than people are today?

  1. How much do you trust each of the following? [Trust a lot | Trust some| Trust a little | Do not trust at all | Not sure] [RANDOMIZE]
  • The federal government in Washington DC
  • The state government in Raleigh
  • Your local county government
  • The U.S. Congress
  • The North Carolina state legislature
  • North Carolina business leaders
  • Religious or spiritual leaders
  • North Carolina news media
  • National news media
  • Technology companies like Apple and Microsoft
  • Social media companies like Meta and X
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) software applications like Chat GPT and Claude
  • The U.S. military
  • Doctors and nurses
  • Scientists
  • Election officials
  • Teachers and educators
  • Local law enforcement officers
  • Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
  • Healthcare professionals (e.g., doctors, nurses)
  • Local non-profit or charity organizations

  1. How favorable are your feelings about each of the following public figures and groups? If you haven’t heard of them, please indicate it. [RANDOMIZE] [Very favorable | Somewhat favorable | Neutral | Somewhat unfavorable | Very unfavorable | Never heard of them]
  • Donald Trump
  • JD Vance
  • Marco Rubio
  • Josh Stein
  • Roy Cooper
  • Michael Whatley
  • Anita Earls
  • Sarah Stevens
  • Gavin Newsom
  • Andy Beshear
  • Alexandria Ocasio Cortez
  • Kamala Harris
  • Thom Tillis
  • Ted Budd
  • The Democratic Party
  • The Republican Party
  • The North Carolina Supreme Court
  • Conservatives on the North Carolina Supreme Court,
  • Liberals on the North Carolina Supreme Court
  • MAGA

  1. What are the main reasons you have a [ANSWER GIVEN] opinion of the Democratic party?

  1. What are the main reasons you have a [ANSWER GIVEN] opinion of the Republican party?

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
  • Strongly approve
  • Somewhat approve
  • Somewhat disapprove
  • Strongly disapprove
  • Not sure

[IF APPROVE] What is the main reason you approve of the job Donald Trump is doing?

[IF DISAPPROVE] What is the main reason you disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing?

  1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Stein is doing as Governor?
  • Strongly approve
  • Somewhat approve
  • Somewhat disapprove
  • Strongly disapprove
  • Not sure

[IF APPROVE] What is the main reason you approve of the job Josh Stein is doing?

[IF DISAPPROVE] What is the main reason you disapprove of the job Josh Stein is doing?

  1. Who do you trust more to govern fairly and with the people’s best interests in mind?
  • Democratic Governor Josh Stein
  • The Republican leadership of the North Carolina legislature
  • Both of them
  • Neither of them
  • Not sure

  1. If the election for U.S. Senate were today, and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for?
  • Michael Whatley - the Republican - former chairman of the Republican National Committee
  • Roy Cooper - the Democrat - governor of North Carolina from 2017 through 2025
  • Not sure

[IF NOT SURE] If you had to choose, who would you vote for?

  • Michael Whatley - the Republican - former chairman of the Republican National Committee
  • Roy Cooper - the Democrat - governor of North Carolina from 2017 through 2025
  • Not sure
  • Would not vote

  1. If the election for North Carolina Supreme Court were today, and the candidates were the following, who would you vote for?
  • Sarah Stevens - the Republican – has served in the North Carolina House of Representatives since 2009. Stevens believes the law should be applied as written and judges shouldn't create laws from the bench. On the Supreme Court, Stevens will respect our state's constitution and apply the principles of conserving liberty to every case.
  • Anita Earls - the Democrat - a civil rights attorney and an associate justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court since 2019. As Justice, she will continue to uphold the rights enshrined in the North Carolina Constitution — access to healthcare, a sound basic public education, and the right to vote.
  • Not sure

[IF NOT SURE] If you had to choose, who would you vote for?

  • Sarah Stevens - the Republican
  • Anita Earls - the Democrat
  • Not sure
  • Would not vote

  1. If the election for North Carolina state legislature were held today, who would you vote for? [ROTATE CANDIDATES]
  • The Democratic candidate
  • The Republican candidate
  • Not sure

[IF NOT SURE] If you had to choose, who would you vote for?

  • The Democratic candidate
  • The Republican candidate
  • Not sure
  • Would not vote

  1. [IF VOTING DEMOCRAT IN ALL RACES] Which best describes your reason for planning to vote for Democrats in November:
  • To support Democratic policies and candidates
  • To oppose Donald Trump and Republican policies
  • Both equally
  • Neither
  • Not sure

  1. [IF VOTING REPUBLICAN IN ALL RACES] Which best describes your reason for planning to vote for Republicans in November:
  • To oppose Democratic policies and candidates
  • To support Donald Trump and Republican policies
  • Both equally
  • Neither
  • Not sure

  1. It is a long way off, but please look ahead to the next presidential election in 2028. If the general election were held today, please indicate which you are most likely to support.
  • The Republican nominee
  • The Democratic nominee
  • Not sure

  1. How likely do you think it is that Donald Trump will be healthy enough to serve until the end of his term on January 20, 2029?
  • Very likely
  • Somewhat likely
  • Not too likely
  • Not likely at all
  • Not sure

  1. If the U.S. Congress and state legislatures overturned the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution and allowed presidents and former presidents to seek a third term in office, who would you vote for in a 2028 election between:
  • Donald Trump, the Republican candidate
  • Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate
  • Not sure

  1. How likely do you think it is that the federal elections for the U.S. Congress and the presidency in 2026 and 2028 will be cancelled?
  • Very likely
  • Somewhat likely
  • Not too likely
  • Not likely at all
  • Not sure

  1. Do you think talk about cancelling the 2026 or 2028 elections is:
  • A valid concern people have
  • Mostly people being hysterical
  • Not sure

  1. If for some reason the 2026 or 2028 elections get cancelled, would you be:
  • Upset with it and see it at the end of America’s democracy
  • Mostly fine with it since the current system does not work
  • Not sure

[TEXT] Turning to a different subject…

  1. Since becoming President last year, how much progress do you think Donald Trump has made on each of the following?

[A lot of progress | Some progress | Not too much progress | No progress at all | Not sure]

  • Lowering the cost of groceries
  • Lowering the cost of gasoline and energy
  • Lowering the cost of housing
  • Creating jobs and increasing wages
  • Reducing the federal debt
  • Expanding your freedoms
  • Promoting peace and ending wars
  • Improving the stock market
  • Immigration and deportations
  • Protecting Social Security and Medicare
  • Improving the quality of health care while bringing down costs
  • Reducing crime
  • Making government more efficient
  • Encouraging people to treat others with respect and dignity
  • Reducing corruption and draining the swamp
  • Strengthening the military
  • Rebuilding America’s roads, bridges, and airports
  • Making America stronger and more respected in the world
  • Helping you build wealth

  1. Do you see Trump as:
  • The leader of the Republican Party, reflecting the party's views
  • Something separate from the Republican Party
  • Not sure

  1. For each of the following pairs of statements about President Donald Trump, please indicate which you agree with the most: [Include not sure]
  • Strong or weak
  • A promise keeper or a promise breaker
  • Energetic and sharp or showing signs of age and mental decline
  • Not afraid to tell the truth or rarely telling the truth
  • A fighter for the wealthy and corporations or a fighter for working people
  • Focused primarily on himself or focused primarily on people like you
  • Holding people in Washington DC accountable or letting the lobbyists and professional politicians call the shots in Washington DC
  • Corrupt or not corrupt
  • Putting America first or putting himself first
  • A government reformer with results or a destroyer of government with no plan to fix it

  1. U.S. Senator Thom Tillis is retiring from the Senate this year after serving for 12 years. Do you think his time in the Senate has been:
  • Mostly a success
  • Mostly a failure
  • Not sure

  1. If U.S. Senator Ted Budd was placed in a lineup with 5 other men his age, how confident are you that you could pick him out?
  • Very confident
  • Somewhat confident
  • Not too confident
  • Not confident at all
  • Not sure

[TEXT] Turning to a different subject…

  1. Would you say your income is:
  • Going up faster than the cost of living
  • Staying about even with the cost of living  
  • Falling behind the cost of living
  • Not sure

  1. How stressful are inflation and rising costs right now to you personally?
  • Very stressful
  • Somewhat stressful
  • Not too stressful
  • Not stressful at all  
  • Not sure

  1. Which of the following do you believe are most responsible for the current cost of living? Choose up to three.
  • Federal government policies
  • State or local government policies
  • Corporate pricing decisions
  • Supply chain disruptions
  • International factors (e.g. tariffs, global markets)
  • Inflation and interest rate policies
  • Other
  • None of these

[IF SELECTS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT POLICIES] Which presidential administration do you believe is most responsible for the current cost of living?

  • The Trump administration
  • The Biden administration
  • Both of them
  • Not sure

  1. Which of the following is most responsible for the current cost of healthcare? Choose up to two.
  • Federal government policies
  • State or local government policies
  • Health insurance companies
  • Drug companies
  • Hospitals and doctors
  • Medical malpractice lawyers
  • Other
  • None of these

[IF SELECTS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT POLICIES] Which presidential administration do you believe is most responsible for the current cost of healthcare?

  • The Obama administration
  • The Trump administration
  • The Biden administration
  • All of them
  • Not sure

  1. Since President Trump imposed new tariffs earlier this year on goods from countries like China, have your costs for everyday things like groceries, appliances, or household goods:
  • Gone up
  • Stayed about the same
  • Gone down
  • Not sure

  1. How likely do you think it is that President Trump’s tariffs will help bring manufacturing jobs back to North Carolina in the next few years?
  • Very likely
  • Somewhat likely
  • Not too likely
  • Not likely at all
  • Not sure

[TEXT] Turning to a different subject…

  1. Last year, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk was appointed as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to save money and make the federal government efficient. How successful do you think Musk and DOGE were in reducing waste, fraud, and abuse?
  • Very successful
  • Somewhat successful
  • Not too successful
  • Not successful at all
  • Not sure

  1. Last year, Congress passed a tax and budget law known as the “Big Beautiful Bill.” How much do you expect to benefit from this law?
  • Benefit a lot
  • Benefit some
  • Benefit a little
  • Did not benefit at all
  • Not sure

  1. Do you support or oppose recent expanding U.S. territory and resources by taking control of Venezuela, Greenland, and threatening governments in Mexico, Panama, Canada, Cuba, and Colombia?
  • Strongly support
  • Somewhat support
  • Somewhat oppose
  • Strongly oppose
  • Not sure

  1. Do you support or oppose the United States taking over the rebuilding of Gaza?
  • Strongly support
  • Somewhat support
  • Somewhat oppose
  • Strongly oppose
  • Not sure

  1. [SPLIT A] Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “The power of the federal government is absolute and should never be questioned.”

[SPLIT B] Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “When it comes to immigration enforcement, the power of the federal government is absolute and should never be questioned.”

  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Not sure

  1. How effective do you think the recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) immigration enforcement actions in Charlotte, Raleigh and other areas of North Carolina have been in making North Carolina safer?
  • Very effective
  • Somewhat effective
  • Not too effective
  • Not effective at all
  • Not sure

  1. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “North Carolina is overrun with criminal illegal aliens. The federal government must do whatever it takes to remove them.”
  • Strongly agree
  • Somewhat agree
  • Somewhat disagree
  • Strongly disagree
  • Not sure

  1. Do you support or oppose abolishing the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, also known as ICE?
  • Strongly support
  • Somewhat support
  • Somewhat oppose
  • Strongly oppose
  • Not sure

  1. Recently, in Minnesota, an ICE officer shot and killed a woman in her car and a man on the street. Do you think these shootings were justified or not?
  • Justified
  • Not justified
  • Not sure

  1. Do you think ICE officers who kill U.S. citizens during ICE operations should have immunity from any investigation or prosecution?
  • Yes, they should have immunity for any actions they take while on the job
  • No, they should not have immunity and all deaths that happen at ICE facilities or by ICE officials on the job should be investigated
  • Not sure

  1. Turning to a different topic… Starting in 2011, Republicans have controlled both the North Carolina House of Representatives and Senate. For each of the following pairs of statements, please choose the one that best describes the job they have done?
  • In the political mainstream or too extreme
  • Mostly interested in serving the people of North Carolina or mostly interested in their own political careers
  • Concerned most with the needs of small business and people like you or concerned most with the needs of corporations and wealthy special interests
  • Helped North Carolina companies create new jobs or have done little to help create jobs in North Carolina
  • Improved educational opportunities for children and young people or reduced educational opportunities for children and young people
  • All about helping people like you or All about Donald Trump
  • Are in touch with problems facing working people or Don't really understand problems facing working people
  • Win elections because voters support their policies or Win elections because they rig the rules in their favor

  1. [ASK TO ALL BUT CONSISTENT REPUBLICAN VOTERS] The following are statements made by supporters of Democrats running for the North Carolina state legislature. For each one, please indicate how persuasive you think it is as a reason to support Democrats.

[Very persuasive | Somewhat persuasive | Not too persuasive | Not persuasive at all]

  • North Carolina Democrats advocate for robust public school funding, higher teacher pay, and equitable access to quality education. They believe every child deserves the opportunity to succeed, regardless of their background.
  • North Carolina Democrats are committed to expanding access to affordable healthcare, including the critical expansion of Medicaid. Their goal is to ensure that every North Carolinian has the healthcare they need.
  • North Carolina Democrats support policies that promote job creation, fair wages, and economic growth across the state. They believe in building a vibrant economy that works for everyone, not just a select few.
  • North Carolina Democrats fight for racial and gender equality, voting rights, and criminal justice reform. They believe in creating a just and fair society where everyone is treated with dignity and respect.
  • North Carolina Democrats advocate for sustainable environmental practices and the protection of North Carolina's natural resources. Their focus is on creating a healthy environment for current and future generations.

  1. Sometimes during a survey like this, people change their minds and sometimes they don’t. If the election for North Carolina state legislature were held today, who would you vote for? [ROTATE CANDIDATES]
  • The Democratic candidate
  • The Republican candidate
  • Not sure

[IF NOT SURE] If you had to choose, who would you vote for?

  • The Democratic candidate
  • The Republican candidate
  • Not sure
  • Would not vote

[TEXT] You are almost done. Thank you so much for your time. We have a few final questions.

  1. Do you own or rent where you live?
  • Own
  • Rent
  • Live with family

  1. How long have you lived in North Carolina?
  • Have lived in North Carolina your whole life
  • 0-5 years
  • 6-10 years
  • 11-20 years
  • 21-30 years
  • 30+ years but not your whole life

  1. How often do you listen to radio, whether on a streaming platform or traditional FM radio?
  • Daily
  • Several times a week
  • Weekly
  • Rarely
  • Never

  1. What are your primary sources to get the news? (Choose all that apply)
  • TV (Broadcast or Network)
  • Newspapers (Online or in print)
  • Online news websites
  • Social media
  • Podcasts
  • Radio
  • Direct from people you know
  • Other

  1. Does your household currently subscribe to cable television?
  • Yes
  • No
  1. [IF NO] Has your household cancelled cable television or “cut the cord” within the last five years?
  • Yes
  • No

  1. How often do you watch the news, whether on a streaming platform, broadcast, or over the air network television?
  • Daily
  • Several times a week
  • Weekly
  • Rarely
  • Never  

  1. Please indicate how often you watch or listen to each of the following sources:

[Every day | Several times a week | Occasionally | Never]

  • MSNOW (formerly MSNBC)
  • CNN
  • Podcasts
  • Fox News
  • Your Local News Stations
  • National News Networks

  1. Please indicate how often you get news on each of the following online platforms:

[Every day | Several times a week | Occasionally | Never]

  • TikTok
  • Instagram
  • Facebook
  • X, formerly Twitter
  • Reddit
  • Snapchat
  • Apple News
  • Truth Social
  • NextDoor
  • YouTube

© 2026 Change Research                                                  info@changeresearch.com | changeresearch.com

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