Emails, Rachel K. Jones, principal research scientist, the Guttmacher Institute, Sept. 2, 2015

11:29 a.m.

Birth rates increased in TX between 2012 & 2013 while they were decreasing nationally. The increase of 4,613 births in TX is very similar to the decline of 4,449 abortions.

Births increased in TX between 2013 & 2014 at a higher rate than they did nationally (3% compared to 1.3%).

Their state abortion figures presumably do not capture women who went out of state (e.g., LA and NM) for abortions during those time periods.

So: It’s not surprising that abortions went down in the face of all those restrictions. It’s possible, if not likely, that some women were able to go out of state for abortions. However, it’s also likely that some had unintended births, and this could be one reason the state saw an increase in births that did not parallel those of the U.S.

Rachel K. Jones, PhD

Guttmacher Institute

3:20 p.m.

And I couldn’t help but revisit using the numbers New was using. It shows the same patterns as the ones I did, even though the figures themselves are slightly different and his time period is shorter.

The N of abortions went down by 7918 between 2011 and 2013 and births went up in 9,764 during the same time period. (Births in the US were going down during that time period.) So it is possible, if not likely, that the increase in births is due, at least in part, to decreased access to abortion. If that’s the case, the unintended birth rate might actually have increased.

...

Rachel K. Jones, PhD

Guttmacher Institute

From: Rachel Jones

Sent: Wednesday, September 02, 2015 4:03 PM

To: 'Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)'

Subject: RE: Additional information

Here’s a starting point for the CDC birth stats:

The 2014 report (preliminary figures usually change by none to little): http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_06.pdf

The 2011 report: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr62/nvsr62_01.pdf

Here’s our most recent report on unintended pregnancy by state:

http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/StateUP10.pdf

Page 4 contains information on how they calculate/estimate unintended birth and pregnancy rates, I think it’s pretty straightforward.

Here the PinkBook, with information on Medicaid funded births thru 2013 (see Table 5.5 for trends): http://www.hhsc.state.tx.us/medicaid/about/PB/PinkBook.pdf

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Rachel K. Jones, PhD

Guttmacher Institute

10:34 a.m.

Sept. 9, 2015

A small correction below and my answers in ALL CAPS.

Rachel K. Jones, PhD

Principal Research Scientist

Guttmacher Institute

From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 2015 7:33 PM

Hello again. I am getting different counts for 2013 v 2011.

The CDC figures indicate Texas had 387,340 births in 2013 compared to 377,445 births in 2011, a difference of 9,905, 9,895^[1] yes?

The state’s abortion count for 2013 (63,849) was down 8,621 from 72,470 in 2011, agree? YES.

Perhaps we’re using different figures. If I am getting this right, your point still hold or no? YES. BOTH SETS OF FIGURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT, SHOW THE SAME PATTERN.

g.