Is life  for civilians possible in Crimea after two years in occupation

From March 15 to March 18 in occupied Crimea and in Russia several events of celebration will took place. They call it “Crimean Spring”. It devoted to the criminal referendum which took place on 16th of March, 2014. The next day the results of the referendum which was conducted at gunpoints were announced. It was the day when occupation started. Does Crimea and Russia really have what to celebrate two years after? Let's look at Crimea today and see how it lives in occupation.

Prospective from the outside

Black Sea Fleet's flagship is coming to Syria

Crimea, Abkhazia, North Osetia, Transnistria and Donbass. On the one hand, all this situations have lots in common as the regions became the victims of the Russian aggression. On the other hand, Crimea stands apart from them because of the one key element. The Black Sea Fleet. The naval base in Sevastopol was founded in 1783 when the Russian Empire sized peninsula and the city. The main task of the base within the Soviet Union was to show power of the Soviet Union in the Mediterranean. After Ukraine gained independence, the majority of naval forces remained in the hands of Russia. In 1997, it was agreed that the fleet of the Russian Federation will stay in Sevastopol until 2017. In 2010, that time president Victor Yanukovych signed notorious deceitful agreements, according to which the navy were staying in Ukrainian peninsula until 2042. When Crimea was illegally annexed, the Russian Federation denounced these agreements and started to expand its force potential in the peninsula.

After only a year and a half after the annexation Crimea already became involved in another conflict – Syrian. Since Russia became an active party of the conflict, it connected two regional lines of the conflicts – Mediterranean and Black Sea into one front line, from Tunisia to Donbass, state the experts from Maidan of Foreign Affairs in its first annual report The Situation In Annexed Crimea And The Strategy On De-occupation.

According to the experts, in September-October 2015, realizing the complexity of supplying the base in Syria by sea, the Russian Federation bought at least 8 civilian dry-cargo ships, including them as military vessels under their flag in brigades of auxiliary ships of the Black Sea Fleet. To protect the base in Syria, Russia transferred a brigade of marines of the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol.

In, November 16, 2015 a new submarine of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation Rostov-on-Don has conducted a missile attack on the Syrian territory from the Mediterranean. In October 2015, Ukrainian intelligence informed that bodies of 26 Russian marines arrived to Sevastopol from Crimea.

“Due to the inability of the Russian commanding to ensure normal sanitary conditions, numerous cases of infectious diseases of the personnel of the Armed Forces on the territory of Syria are observed, " stated in the report of Ukrainian intelligence on the situation in Syria.

In 2016, new information about Russian ships of the Black Sea Fleet arriving to Syria appeared.

In this context, the risk of activation of the conflicts in the South Caucasus (Georgia, Nagorno-Karabakh) in order to block new projects in the energy transit to Europe from the Caspian Sea and Turkmenistan through the territory of Turkey by Russia significantly increased, state the experts from Maidan of Foreign Affairs.

Peaceful life

The prices for food in Crimea became  significantly higher

It seems that Russia cares much less about the things connected to life of ordinary people t the peninsiula. According to Russian media, the level of inflation of Crimea is the highest among all the regions of the Federation. In 2015, it amounted 26.4% comparing to with 12.9% of the inflation of the whole Russia. “Vice Prime Minister” of so-called government of Crimea Vitaliy Nakhlupin explains that the process of affiliation of the weak economy to more stronger economy causes taught inflation processes "We were lucky from the point of view of wage growth levels. However, this increase in wages provoked an increase in prices. It was the alignment.”

Indeed, salaries increased in terms of the conversion from hryvnyas to rubles. First of all, for state employees. However, the inflation has eaten all the incomes of Crimea citizens, says the expert of Maidan of Foreign Affairs, Crimean expert Yuriy Smeliyanskiy:

“If to count from the pre-occupation period and until today we can say that the purchasing power of the currency in Crimea has fallen in 8-10 times.”

He names the main three causes why the prises on the peninsula will continue to rise. First, Russia itself is the country which depends from import, so that it can not live without supplies from abroad. Second, correlation between dollar, ruble and a barrel of oil. The US government has decided to start a policy of strengthening the national currency and dollar price started to rise. So that the price of oil and ruble will continue to fall. Third, without industrial water supply Crimea can not normally provide its needs. So that dependent on water agriculture became dependent of weather conditions.

The expert emphasizes that military retirees, pensioners of intelligence, government officials and those who serve in the occupation army have higher purchasing power, because occupation authorities encourage them. Russia needs Crimea only as a military base, so nothing else will be developed there.

Business and enterprises

Russia “nationalized” famous Nikita Botanical Garden

After the occupation, Russia hurried up to “nationalize” business of the peninsula. According to the official data, around 400 Ukrainian companies were “nationalized”. Among them 200 health centers, all ports, airports, water and power facilities, railways, wineries, elevators, agricultural enterprises. Also such objects as Nikita Botanical Gardens, the famous children's center "Artek", a large mining company Chernomorneftegaz and the shipyard More are expropriated too.

In general, the total number of seized enterprises and organizations in Crimea is more than 4,000, state experts. After the annexation many people had just to leave their businesses. First, because many things were oriented at Ukrainian consumer in Ukrainian Crimea. Second, reregistration requires a lot of time. Some were trying to sell the business, but failed. However, often it was just stolen.

According to Zerkalo Nedeli journalists, "nationalized" assets were allocated to agencies, clans and certain people (in Russia). Trade union sanatoriums, state cottages, conservancy areas, wine concern Massandra, champagne factory Noviy Svet and other objects are listed at the site of Russian President's Administrative Office. All the stolen assets operated in a marauding way. Any investment funds are not allocated for development.

Technically the method of direct expropriation is not formally applied towards private enterprises, but another mechanism - raider takeovers and changes in management staff involving "Crimean self-defense” are used there. Before the “nationalization”, officials spread false information about bankruptcy of a company or accuse it of something. This practice is applied mostly to businessmen who support the idea of integrity of Ukraine and oppose Russian occupation. In addition, small and medium business in Crimea is systematically destroyed too as self-employed people are considered as a group of risk by occupation authorities.

The thing is that there is no such a notion as “nationalization” in the Constitution of Russian Federation. There is said that "the expropriation of property for state needs can be conducted only with the prior and fair compensation." There is a similar provision in the present Protocol to the European Convention on Human Rights, ratified by Russia. And in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation stated that in case of adoption of a law terminating the right of ownership, the losses suffered by the owner as a result of this act, including the value of the property shall be reimbursed by the state, and all disputes are settled in court.

However, Russia has not adopted any law on nationalization. Its implementation was based primarily on the decision of the State Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea "On the independence of the Crimea", adopted on 17 March 2014.

The acts of the Crimean parliament did not mention the word "nationalization" of the property of private individuals. To transfer these assets to the state it was enough to add them to the list of the republican property in the annex to the decree of the State Council on April 30, 2014. In this case, the State Council Acts does not describe the reasons for such transfers. If the former owners want to try to return the “nationalized” assets, they should appeal against the State Council of decisions at all levels of the Russian justice system, including the Constitutional Court. And then they can appeal to the European Court of Human Rights, whose decisions the Russian Federation takes only voluntarily.

Ukrainian officials state that so far the occupation “authorities” of Crimea assigned Ukrainian property in the amount of about 50 bn UAH (USD 1.8 bn).

Tourist Public Image

Residents of the sea cost who used to earn on tourism can not do it anymore

Before the illegal annexation, the first associations which would have appear in Ukainan's minds with the word Crimea were summer, sea and mountains. However, it is hard to name real numbers how strong the peninsula was dependent on tourism. Just after the occupation Boris Nemtsov, Russian opposition member killed in February 2015, used to say that tourism made 40% of Crimean economy, but “[Russian] propagandists, resigned themselves to the failure of the tourist season [2015], started to lie, that for Crimea tourism is not the main thing.”

The truth is that the tourism in Crimea never used to be priority direction for development for the officials. According to information from Ukrainian media before the occupation, around 80% of tourist industry in the peninsula was working in a shadow. From 6 million tourists who used to come to Crimea before 2014, only 1.5 million were staying in the sector which was working legally. Others were choosing private households. Crimean treasury did not receive significant revenues from tourism.

Illegal business activities used to be one of the main problems on the peninsula under Ukraine. Crimean entrepreneurs who used to work legally were repeatedly saying to the Ministry of Revenues representatives that such "pseudo-entrepreneurs" were working under the protection of law enforcement forces, deputies of all levels and officials and no one can do anything with them.

While such “pseudo-entrepreneurs” were trying to get a piece of the pie during summer to have a rest in other months, Crimean treasury was making up leeway at excises tax cost.

After the illegal annexation, nor legal, neither illegal tourism sector of Crimea could not earn money. According to Oleksandr Liev, former Minister of Tourism of Crimea, before 2014, 67,4% of tourists were Ukrainians. So that because of the occupation, Crimean tourism lost majority of tourists. Moreover, majority of Russian tourists who came to the peninsula after the annexation were state employees and poor people, who were resting for the money of Russian taxpayers. Of course, from the Russian side it was followed by positive messages for straightening the myth that the season in Crimea was great. However, according to Liev, 100,000 families who used to earn from tourism, were left without anything.

For the Crimean season of summer 2016, there are also positive predictions in Russia. For example, Russian media Ria Crimea sates that rates of booking accommodation facilities today are much higher than it was last year this time. So-called “Ministry of Resorts and Tourism of Crimea” expected that 4.9 million of tourists will come to Crimea in the nearest season. It is fair to say, that there is one benefit for the peninsula from tourism point of view. Egypt and Turkey two favorite destinations of Russians are closed for them this year due to the political reasons. That might attract some Russians to Crimea. However, even Russian tourists operators say that no more than 30% of Russians who used to chose Turkey or Egypt will come to Crimea.

Even Russian tourist operators admit, that the high prises and inflation on the peninsula will become a significant barrier for tourists.

Dependence on Ukraine

After the energy blockade Russia can not provide Crimea with electricity in needed amounts

Russian and Western experts noted that since the annexation of Crimea by Russia, maintenance of the occupied peninsula costs for Russia around USD 3 billion. So after two years it became clear what Ukrainians meant when they were saying that Crimea is a subsidized region.

Before the occupation, around 80% of needs of peninsula in fresh water were fulfilled by the North Crimean Channel and around 80% of needs in electricity were fulfilled by Zaporizha and Kakhovka electricity stations (Ukraine). Also Crimea was financially independent only for 34%, other costs were subsidized by the state budget of Ukraine.

By joining forces of the state and activists Ukrainian side makes the prise for occupation even higher. In 2014, Ukrainian authorities stopped the flow of water from the Dnipro River to the North Crimean Channel, which also provided water for off-channel reservoirs of the peninsula. Currently farmers and ordinary people feel acute need in fresh water, but because of lack of it, so-called authorities of Crimea are practicing suspension of water supply. And actually there is no other choice, because the reservoirs are always empty and are dependent on the weather conditions.

Also the peninsula is still reaping the fruits of the energy blockade which have been started in October 2015. Since the 1st of January, 2016 Ukraine does not provide any electricity to Crimea. All the technical problems with power lines were solved. However, in the new year the old contract for energy supplying was over. In the new one, Ukrainian side, according to the international legislation, stated that Crimea is temporary occupied by Russia. Russia refused to sign such a contract. In the end, for several months in a row Crimea lives in a condition of energy shortage. Despite the fact that Russia managed to fractionally launch the Kuban energy bridge, the residents of Crimea are still suffering from the rolling blackouts. While Russian propaganda creating myths of explanations and soon solving of the problem by lunching another line of the energy bridge, locals experience the economy on transport services, city lightings and elevators and so on.

Since September 2015 Crimeans also feel the results of the transport blockade initiated by Crimean Tatars and local organization of the Right Sector. It limited the commodity circulation between Ukraine and the peninsula. In January 2016, this blockade was officially formalized by going into effect of the relevant act of The Cabinet of Ministers.

Moreover, few days ago the leader of the Crimean Tatars Mustafa Dzhemilev stated that Turkey has joined the food blockade. According to him, after the Russian and Turkish relations deteriorated, the sanctions "were practically initiated by the Russian Federation itself", and de facto Turkey joined the sanctions against Russia, which affected supplies in annexed Crimea.

The Human Rights Prospective

Сhairman of the representative body of Crimean Tatars Refat Chubarov at the court hearing on prohibition of Mejlis

As of Fabruary 1, 2016, according The State Emergency Service of Ukraine almost 22,000 displaced came to Ukraine from Crimea and Sevastopol. Among all the Ukrainian displaced this people experience less bias from the locals than people from Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. It caused by the fact that people who moved to Ukraine from Crimea did it not because of the warfares, but because of political reasons, so that it was their conscious choice.

Indeed, to be a Ukrainian on the peninsula became dangerous and almost impossible. For example, during two years of the occupation all the media in Ukrainian in Crimea disappeared, in practice the education in Ukrainian in schools is forbidden, the only faculty of Ukrainian language in Crime was disbanded, the demonstrations in honor of Ukrainian symbol, a poet Taras Shevchenko were also forbidden this year. Recently, the so-called authorities of Crimea have forbidden any public events in Simferopol and explained it by emergency situation (technological and nature) at the peninsula. However, this prohibition is not spread at the events organized by the authorities.

NGO Crimea SOS informs about more than 200 cases of human rights violations in Crimea which include kidnappings, illegal detention and abuse of the Crimean Tatars, activists, journalists and others.

The most recent attack on Crimean Tatars from Russian Federation and Crimean criminal authorities is an attempt to forbid Mejlis Of The Crimean Tatar People, a single supreme plenipotentiary representative and executive body of the Crimean Tatar people, between the sessions of Qurultay. The official reason for that is to call Mejlis an extremists organization. However, in fact, it is not a secret that the body and its representatives are the most active in opposing the occupation.

These two years of occupation also demonstrated that even active pro-Russian position does not help in having a better life. Russia has demonstrated on practice that it is not interested in the life of local residents, unless they are connected to a military field. The Russian Federation considers the peninsula only as a military base. Today, around 50-60 thousands of military personnel are based in Crimea. According to the plans of the Federation, in near future there should be around 120,000 of military personnel there. Ukrainian journalists counted, that to provide the military base with its needs, life ratio of civilians to the military ratios should be 4: 1. That is, four civilians ( a trolleybus driver, a salesman, a kindergarten teacher, etc.) are serving to one military man. Military group numbering 120,000 requires the presence of 480-500 thousands of civilians. Some of these civilians are members of families of military men. Even if to double the number of the necessary civilian population in Crimea (in terms of economic optimality), there should be no more than 1 million people of the civilian population. The rest are not needed. At the beginning of 2014, 2.34 million people used to live in Crimea. According to the Russian population census conducted in 2015 it reduced to 1.97 million. Moreover, comparing to the Ukrainian population census, Russian data have shown dramatic changes in the ethnicity of people who live in Crimea: 68% are Russians vs. 58% in 2001, 15.7% are Ukrainians (against 24.5% in 2001) and 10.6% are Crimean Tatars (against 12.1%).