Emails (excerpted), Steve Munisteri, chairman, Republican Party of Texas, Aug. 26 and Sept. 5, 2013
From: Steve Munisteri
Sent: Monday, August 26, 2013 7:34 PM
To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)
Subject: RE: Inquiry for PF T
Gardner-We get a movers list which indicates number of Republicans which move into counties from other locations. These are Registered Republicans(in states which register Republicans) or people who voted in Republican Primary or whom data mining suggest are Republicans. Our list for jan-jun 2013 was 94,000 Republicans. Our Democrat list was 59,000 for Jan-July 2013 period. Now note of caution, some of these could be intrastate movers. However, point I was making is we have a lot of potential unregistered Republicans who have voted in the past, more than the Democrats do. So a concerted effort to register these Republicans in their new counties will give us significant advantage over the Democrats. Another way to look at is that when you adjust for the 6 months of Rep data v. 7 months of Dem data , the ratio of R to D is 1.86 to 1 which translates into 65 % of movers Republican. The Governor says 1300 moving here a day, multiply this by .65 and you get 846. Assume about half children and you get 423 which is fairly consistent with what we extrapolate from mover data-Steve
From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) [email@example.com]
Sent: Thursday, September 05, 2013 3:39 PM
To: Steve Munisteri
Subject: RE: Inquiry for PF T
Thanks for the message.
If 94,000 Republicans moved to Texas from January through May (151 days), then that means about 620 a day, right? I am still trying to fathom the equation.
Sept. 5, 2013
Gardner-Yes, BUT, the list is of 94,000 Republicans who are new residents to Texas counties who have either voted in a Republican primary or which other data indicates voted Republican in a general election. However, since some of the new residents maybe from other Texas counties instead of out of state, my estimate from out of state is achieved by using the Republican to Democratic ratio of new residents which is 1.86 to 1 (15,666 Reps per month versus 8428 Dems per month) multiplied by what the governor said is the total moving to the state (1300-1400 a day) yields 845-910 which I cut in half to account for kids yields estimate of 423-455 per day. Keep in mind my original comments were in the context of discussion with TV reporter who asked what the RPT was doing voting registration wise to counter the Democrats. I responded we were focusing on the 94,000 Republicans in Texas who just moved that would be fertile ground for us to register. These comments then lead to additional questions from other reporters which lead me to note that Republicans had advantage over Democratic movers which then lead to other questions as to how many Republicans I thought moving into Texas. I gave approximation based on above analysis. Hopes this helps-Steve