Email, Roger Falk, consultant, Austin, May 1, 2013

12:15 am

Statement in question:  "These bonds will double AISD's debt".  I'm not sure of the source of the LWV's quote, but based on the math and Texas Bond Review Board's data, I concur.  If someone claims the TBRB's data is flawed, they should make their case with verifiable proof.  I look forward to seeing it.  Since their datapoint is 4q 2012, it's likely the current debt has declined slightly, making the statement even more true.  I think we can both agree debt that vastly exceeds assets is poor public policy.  


Based on issue amount: $750,598,879 vs $892,245,000.  Difference: $141,646,121  Using this metric the total debt more than doubles to $1,642,843,879.  


Based on total repayment using a conservative 1.4 multiplier on new issues (bonds on board site are at around a 1.5 multiplier): $1,122,290,228 vs $1,249,143,000  Difference: $126,852,772  Using this metric the debt more than doubles to $2,371,433,228.


Conclusion:  Using either metric the statement is easily true.


Roger Falk

Travis County Taxpayers Union