Geno: the Long Star Road to Smash, an Analysis in Eight Parts
By Fatmanonice (Champion of Overthinking Everything)
Introduction: Establishing the Case for Geno in Smash
Geno himself really doesn’t need an introduction which is kind of ironic given his humble beginnings. A one off character from a Mario spin-off in 1996 that’s only notable cameos since have been in a minigame in Mario and Luigi: Super Star Saga (2003) and a Mii costume in Super Smash Bros for 3DS/Wii U (2014). On my own end of things, I’ve technically been supporting Geno online since 2002 with my earliest posts on the now defunct Adult Swim forums and then later in 2005 when I created the thread Geno: Star of Heaven on the now also defunct Nsider forums. In 2006, I joined Smashboards after returning from my trip to Japan where I tried to drop off the Geno fanbases’ 128 page portfolio at Nintendo’s HQ in Kyoto. Given my long history with Geno, I guess you could consider me an authority on the topic and I wanted to take this time to explain my reasons why, after all these years, I not only believe that Geno’s finally coming to Smash but that he’ll be #77. Seventy Seven = Seven Stars, the End… But seriously, I hope you all enjoy this eight part essay on why I believe Geno is coming to Smash Ultimate and soon.
Geno’s Longevity
To say that Geno’s one of the most enduring characters in the Smash fanbase is no small exaggeration. Posts celebrating Geno on Smashboards in its opening year of 2001 aren’t hard to find and Geno had a handful of votes in the official Smash poll that Nintendo ran in 1999:
https://smashboards.com/threads/i-think-this-might-be-interesting-to-look-at-melee-1999-poll.81891/
Not exactly a lot by any stretch of the imagination but it establishes the simple fact that people have literally been rooting for Geno to join Smash Bros for over 20 years. Fast forward another seven years and Geno’s prevalence in the official Brawl survey comes up:
https://smashboards.com/threads/characters-on-sakurais-poll.71872/
There’s no hard data to officially tally how many votes characters got but it is noteworthy that Sakurai pointed out submissions about Geno as many times as he did characters like Ridley and Diddy (I will go into more in the “Sakurai’s Thoughts on Geno” section). Fast forward yet again to the Smash 4 days, this time 2015 when the Smash Dojo Poll was running.
Based on the original post, this poll compiled over 45,000 votes from polls done around the world. In this absolutely monolith data collection, Geno ranked 13th overall and 6th for third party characters. Removing veterans to Smash, Geno ranks 10th overall and 5th for third party characters. It’s especially notable that, based on this data, he outranked a number of characters that would eventually become playable like Ridley (15th overall), Daisy (26th overall), and Simon (28th overall, 11th third party).
Fast forward even further into the future in 2018 when DLC was announced during the November Smash Direct. This poll, for example, collected over a thousand votes, and Geno ranked 3rd overall.
https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/bzdvo1/dlc_popularity_poll_results/
An even larger poll from this time period, claiming to have tallied more than 20,000 votes, had Geno ranked 2nd overall:
https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/9ld79u/day_3434_results_randomized_smash_ultimate_poll/
Outside of polls, Super Mario RPG and Geno have been very consistent in video game culture, having long reaching histories on sites like Newgrounds and Youtube. For example, Christopher Niosi’s “Rawest Forest” made in 2007 has had millions of views across multiple sites with the official YouTube copy currently at over a million itself. His 2011 follow up, “Waltz of the Forest” has close to 5 million. Smooth McGroove’s Remix of “Beware the Forest’s Mushrooms” has almost 2 million. Many remixes of that track alone have hundreds of thousands of views.
Aside from the notable popularity of SMRPG’s music, videos and animations about Geno are often very popular too. Terminal Montage’s “Something about Geno for Smash Bros Ultimate” made last year has about 1.5 million views. Even going back a full six years, Terminal Montage’s videos about Geno still have hundreds of thousands of views. Beyond this, let’s plays of the game have accumulated millions of views across multiple notable gaming channels including Super Best Friends, the Completionist, Chuggaconroy, and Vinesauce. One again, this helps demonstrate that SMRPG and Geno have had a long standing and continuing history despite being from a game from the mid 1990’s.
History of Geno Related Rumors and Leaks: (Grinch, Mii Costume, and Cacomallow)
Since I started being serious about supporting Geno online back in 2005, there have been plenty of rumors that have circled around the character. Most popular characters have had their fair share of rumors over the years but Geno’s during the Ultimate speculation cycle have perhaps been the most interesting. Lots of fakes and hoaxes have surrounded the character too but I wanted to take the time to look at the three most prominent during the Smash Ultimate speculation cycle: the Grinch leak, the Mii Costume leak, and the Cacomallow leak.
The Grinch Leak: this leak came about in late October 2018 and was ultimately proven to be fake. The specifics on why it was fake aren’t particularly important but what was in this leak and why it ultimately became famous worldwide are definitely worthy of analysis. As a quick recap, in October 2018, the Grinch Leak claimed that the following characters would be coming to Smash Ultimate: Ken, Banjo, Isaac (Golden Sun), Geno, Shadow, the Chorus Kids (Rhythm Heaven), and Mach Rider. Of these characters, only Ken would appear in the base roster as playable. Isaac was an assist trophy and costume, Shadow was an assist trophy, Mach Rider and Chorus Kids were spirits, and Geno was an online player icon and spirit. Banjo was the only character that was totally MIA at launch. If the Grinch Leak was ultimately fake, what’s the point of analyzing it? The point is that it ironically may have been the final push for Nintendo to seriously consider Geno in Smash Ultimate.
Of the characters in the Grinch Leak, it can be reasonably argued that three made it make headlines: Banjo, Isaac, and Geno. At the time, Ken and Shadow were already heavily rumored for the game as echoes of Ryu and Sonic respectively and Mach Rider and Chorus Kids were widely considered to be really niche picks. Unbeknownst to many at the time, Isaac was already an assist trophy and Banjo was secretly in the very early stages of development. This left Geno in a very interesting place. At the time, Geno was merely a spirit and an online icon. Because of these three characters, the Grinch Leak became known all over the world. A lot of news outlets covered it worldwide and even the French printing company that got tied up in the hoax made an official statement on it and the employee that was accused of being involved in the leak (ironically a middle aged man close to retirement that quickly made his LinkedIn page private after ongoing harassment from the Smash fanbase). As said, it was ultimately shown to be a hoax in early November 2018 but, as the saying goes, “the damage was done.” It further solidified that the Smash fanbase really wanted Banjo, Isaac, and Geno in Smash and literally forced all three characters to be acknowledged worldwide. As said, Isaac and Banjo were already planned to have full on forms in Smash Ultimate, leaving Geno, a one time character from the mid 90’s, once again in the spotlight and in a weird state of limbo.
The Mii Costume Leak: In July of 2019, one of Papagenos’ private contacts reached out to him and shared with him a list of character names that he got from one of his own contacts. This list included the following names: Mallow, Smithy, Chocobo, Zero, Protoman, Goemon, and Rocket Grunt. Based on the timing of this message, Papa’s contact assumed that the Square names were going to be Hero’s Mii costumes and that, despite the lack of Microsoft or Rare names, they merely assumed that the other names were Banjo’s Mii costumes. In the end, they were correct about Banjo’s costumes despite the lack of clarity from the original contact but the Square costumes were MIA. Months later, I would come to meet this Mii costume contact through my own network and shared friends. During our meeting, I would also learn that they correctly knew Terry’s spirit board as well as little bits and pieces like the Megalomania track as far back as the late spring 2019. Coincidentally, his intel also cast the Cacomallow leak in November in a very positive light (more on that later). Obviously, Mallow was one of the Mii costumes, suggesting that it would be a Mii costume coming soon. Based on previous theories established, it heavily suggested that, if Mallow was coming, he wouldn’t be coming with 5, as supported by other insiders such as Sabi and Vergeben. This established that, if Geno was coming, he would be 6 at the earliest but, as noted later, the theory would change to suggest he would be 7 and, coincidentally, number 77 on the roster.
The Cacomallow Leak: In early November 2019, a strange set of photos and videos appeared on 4chan showing off footage of two entirely new Mii costumes in action. These Mii costumes were Cacodemon from the DOOM series and Mallow from Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars. Needless to say, it was very quickly noticed and spread like wildfire. In the Smash community, video leaks are incredibly rare. The last legitimate video leak in the Smash community was in the late summer of 2014 and became known as the ESRB leak. This legit leak successfully leaked video footage of Smash 4 (3DS) and provided the first footage of Shulk, Bowser Jr, and Duck Hunt, all characters that hadn’t been announced yet, as well as the Character Select Screen before DLC. Up to this point in history, this has been the only major video leak for Smash that has turned out to be true.
Cacomallow quickly had a lot of people comment on it. Many of the best and brightest in the modding community noted the sheer difficulty of successfully implementing totally brand new Mii costume mods into Smash Ultimate. One commonly brought up issue is that the game is very particular and can very easily crash when totally new elements are added through modding. Another common point was that many of the angles in the pictures and videos were only possible through debug/developer tools. Many attempts were made to try to copy it but none were totally successful. Many elements of the costumes, such as the Mallow hat’s “jiggle physics” were considered to be incredibly complicated, suggesting they were either real or a very elaborate hoax. Again, at the time of this essay, roughly two months of attempts were made and none were totally successful, even when the most talented modders in the community tried their hand at replicating it.
When it came to insiders’ opinions on Cacomallow, it was also mixed. Most had strong doubts but it was more on the lines of “it was too good to be true”, not because of the costumes themselves but because it heavily implied that Doom Marine (AKA Doom Slayer/Doom Guy) and Geno were going to be DLC later on. For most of the Smash Ultimate’s DLC cycle, both of these characters were among the most popular and requested, making the Cacomallow leak seem a little too convenient, especially in the light that the identity is still, at the time of this essay, very heavily debated. Despite this, there was no hard evidence, in public or “behind the scenes” that Cacomallow was outright fake. The only suggestion made was that Nintendo hadn’t taken legal action and even Nintendo employees noted this. According to some of my friends who work/have worked for Nintendo, leaks are treated very seriously and legal action is usually taken very swiftly. For example, in the fall of 2018, there was a play tester that leaked Ken for Smash Ultimate and, supposedly, this play tester was eventually caught, fired, and blacklisted from the industry. The only confirmation of this, however, has been word of mouth, calling some question to the legitimacy of these claims.
The most interesting aspect of Cacomallow, all in all, is how much it has lined up with other rumors and information. For example, going back to the Mii costume leak in the summer of 2019, Mallow was a Mii costume listed back then. This also lined up with information and rumors that character 5 of the Fighter’s Pass would probably be Western but “wasn’t Crash Bandicoot or Tracer from Overwatch.” Still, at the time of this essay, the mystery has yet to be solved. It hasn’t been proven to be fake or real and nobody has come forward to claim the leak and nobody has been caught at the time of this essay. All and all, a very interesting rumor and, if it winds up being true, it will definitely be the most famous in Smash history.
Fan Service and How Smash Ultimate Makes the Best of It
Smash Ultimate is fan service in its purest form. The lengths that Nintendo has gone to please the fans is more than apparent, often bringing on ideas that fans have pitched at them since Melee. For example, Ditto was an idea that they couldn’t be successfully pulled off in Melee and Sukapon, now an assist trophy, was a character that Sakurai wanted as a ride-around item in Melee but couldn’t because of the technical limitations at the time. On the topic of assist trophies, you have to consider the enormous fan favorites that were added in Ultimate (or added back in) that have had a fan standing since at least Brawl:
-Knuckles
-Krystal
-Bomberman
-the Black Knight
-Zero
-Isaac
From there, we move onto the Mii costumes that were added in Ultimate:
-Isaac
-Saki
-Chibi Robo
-Ray 01
-Lip
-Dixie Kong
-Skull Kid
-Goemon
-Rex
-Barbara
-Marx
-Sans
-Spring Man
Even before we get to the playable characters, this is an already sizeable list of fan favorite characters. From there, let’s look at the current list of playable characters:
-Inkling
-Daisy
-Ridley
-Simon
-Richter
-Chrom
-Dark Samus
-King K. Rool
-Isabelle
-Ken
-Incineroar
-Plant
-Joker
-Hero
-Banjo
-Terry
Minus Plant, all of these characters have fairly sizable fanbases all around the world. Six of the characters (Daisy, Ridley, Simon, K. Rool, and Banjo) have had notable fanbases as far back as Melee, four characters that were previously turned down by Sakurai himself (Daisy, Ridley, Chrom, and Dark Samus), and seven were upgraded from their nonplayable status in Smash 4 (Inkling, Daisy, Ridley, Chrom, Dark Samus, K. Rool, and Isabelle). What’s coincidental about this situation is that Geno actually falls into all three of these categories: he’s been wanted since at least Melee, he was turned down for a previous Smash game (Brawl), and he had a notable, nonplayable status in Smash 4. On top of this, he’s also the only character in all three categories that had a Mii costume and also a non-playable status in the base game of Smash Ultimate, again, a game all about fan service. With all of these fan service points put into focus and their overall significance to Smash Ultimate as a whole, it places Geno in a very interesting position for consideration for DLC.
The DLC Cycle: Analysis and Theorycrafting
According to Sakurai, Smash Ultimate began development around the time Smash 4 was wrapping up its DLC in late 2015. From there, supposedly DLC for Smash Ultimate wasn’t decided until about the time Ultimate was first revealed, so, about Spring 2018. This presents a more than two year gap between when the initial project plan started and when DLC was first considered. What does this tell us? It presents a strong theory that, despite there originally not being plans for DLC, Geno was still put into strong consideration for a number of reasons. For starters, of the Square Enix characters in the base game, there’s only him, Mallow, and Cloud. It’s notable that Geno is not only a legendary spirit but the only primary Square Enix spirit in the base game. Aside from Cloud, Geno was the only Square Enix character in the base game to have an online player icon and the only side character from any Mario RPG to get a player icon as well. Beyond this, it’s pretty notable that he was spared the assist trophy axe too despite other longtime megaton favorites subcoming to it like Krystal, Zero, Knuckles, and, most notably, Isaac.
(Add in: in the following paragraphs, I will be discussing the DLC timeline theory by another Geno fan by the name of ForsakenM. His original theory can be found in the following post:
Thanks to ForsakenM of Smashboards, we have a solid theory that Season 2 of DLC was likely decided as early as December 2018 and greenlit as late as E3 2019, meaning that the amount of time that the Fighter’s Pass was hypothetically “one and done” was about 9 months at most, with it being “finalized” literally only a month beforehand shortly after concluding the November Direct. Quite a quick turnaround, wouldn’t you say? Based on Sakurai’s own words we already know that he was working on Joker, Hero, and Banjo during December 2018, on the most basic terms showing that more than half of the proposed Fighter’s Pass had already began work and this is supported by how Hero’s basic stats were secretly datamined from the game at launch. Why is this significant? Because it may explain to us how future events unfolded.
One of the things this possibly tells us is that Hero and Square Enix DLC content was one of the first things decided for the Fighter’s Pass. Thanks to Vergeben and the Seven Squares Scandal in August of 2018, we know that this content was more than likely decided a year or more before Hero was even announced at E3 2019, again, fitting into ForsakenM’s theory of when the Fighter’s Pass was greenlit. This also means that Geno would have been one of the first Smash 4 DLC costumes decided on. ForsakenM’s time theory was that, because the 16 dummy slots were found in Ultimate’s code as early as January 2019, it suggests that Season 2 was decided as early as December 2018 and, based on rumors heard in the early fall of 2019, was green lit as late as E3 2019. This time frame also lines up with when the Mii Costumes of Smithy and Mallow were first heard in July 2019. This suggests that there wasn’t time to make replacements for Mii costumes and the general plan was to simply “remove” Smash 4 DLC costumes to use later. Obviously, this is most apparent with Hero’s Mii costumes. If we go off the theory that every Fighter’s Pass pack was originally planned to have 6 Mii costumes, it’s very easy to imagine that the “removed” Smash 4 DLC costumes from Hero’s pack were Geno and Chocobo, the only Smash 4 Square costumes. If the original plan was to bring back all 15 Smash 4 third party costumes across 5 packs, it would make the most logical sense for those two to return with Hero, presumably the only Square character in the Fighter’s Pass.
Now that we’ve established that Geno and Chocobo were probably the first Smash 4 DLC costumes “removed” from the game, let’s make the hypothesis that they would also be the first to be added back in. First we ask the question “when would they be added back in.” One of my theories is that 6 was always planned to be a bonus character and to come at the end of the Fighter’s Pass. Various bits and pieces of information that have come my way since the winter of 2018 further confirm this to me. If 6 was always planned to be a bonus, perhaps as a standalone character, this suggests that the original plan was, in fact, to have all 15 Smash 4 third party DLC costumes come across 5 packs. This suggests that, if the “removed” costumes were coming back in order, Geno and Chocobo’s would come back first and the earliest that this could happen is Pack 7 which, once again, I predict would be Geno.
Sakurai’s Thoughts on Geno
One of the biggest moments for the Geno fanbase in Smash history was when Sakurai officially spoke on Geno in the April 2016 issue of Nintendo Dream:
In this article, Sakurai notes that he wanted Geno playable as far back as Brawl and there was an honest attempt to get him into not only Brawl but Smash 4. He also notes the character’s long standing popularity, saying the character’s demand has been consistent for years and that he keeps getting “loads of requests and votes to put him in the game.” This is exceptionally notable for, again, Geno is a side character that only had one major appearance in one game almost 24 years ago. During his peaks of popularity, he has rivaled characters like Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo, star characters in their respective franchises and some of the biggest heroes and villains in all of gaming. Sakurai even went as far as saying that Geno would fit “absolutely perfectly” into Smash. Once again, this is incredibly high praise for a one shot character. When Sakurai says that he had interest in Geno back before Brawl, we actually have a fair amount of evidence supporting this too.
At E3 2006, Super Smash Bros Brawl was revealed to the world. Shortly after this reveal, an official public survey was made available on the official Smash Bros website. This survey had three options for types of comments that people could submit: character requests, music requests, and words of encouragement to Sakurai and the Brawl team. For reasons unknown, Sakurai gradually made 290 comments into the poll public and available to read on the website. The characters that were mentioned in the most comments can be found here:
https://smashboards.com/threads/characters-on-sakurais-poll.71872/
If you look at the most mentioned characters, you’ll see this:
King Dedede(5)
Diddy Kong(4)
Geno(4)
Ike(4)
Ridley(4)
Captain Olimar & Pikmin(3)
Krystal(3)
Takamaru(3)
Windwaker Link(3)
Animal Crossing MC(2)
Claus(2)
Demiru(2)
Isaac(2)
Jeff(2)
Kawashima(2)
King K.Rool(2)
Lip(2)
Lucas(2)
Mega Man(2)
Oguma(2)
Ouendan(2)
Sukapon(2)
Very interesting. Geno was tied for second with megaton characters like Diddy Kong and Ridley. Of the 22 characters mentioned here, 11 would eventually become playable, 6 would eventually become assist trophies, and 2 would eventually become a costume and nothing beyond that, Geno included. That said, only three of these characters (Demille, Oguma, and Ouendan Cheer Squad) were never promoted beyond spirits in Ultimate (probably because they were Japanese exclusives). It’s noteworthy to point out because if, you remove the characters with only two “votes”, you’re left with 9 characters. Of these 9 characters, 6 would eventually go on to become playable, and 2 would become assist trophies, Takamaru in Smash 4 and Krystal in Ultimate. That just leaves Geno, a character that was tied for second with Diddy (Brawl), Ike (Brawl), and Ridley (Ultimate). When broken down in such a way, Sakurai’s interest in Geno is very well established and is further supported by Sakurai’s comments almost a decade into the future.
Odd Happenings and Coincidences Concerning Geno and Smash
In July 2019, KCCHIEF27 of Smashboards made the following post and points out a lot of weird and odd coincidences involving Geno since 2015.
It’s a very interesting read especially when you consider how the development of Smash Ultimate began in late 2015 around the time of the Final Smash 4 Direct. Each of these points could be analyzed in full but I’m going to pick and choose a handful of them to further support why they are interesting points to discuss when it comes to the full-on possibilities of Geno coming to Smash Ultimate.
1. Nintendo’s Strange Mario RPG Tweet on Twitter
On May 13th, 2018, the official Nintendo of America Twitter account made the following tweet:
https://twitter.com/NintendoAmerica/status/995680065206784000
As KCCHIEF27 pointed out, it’s especially interesting to note because it was around the game’s 22nd anniversary which is a very odd milestone to celebrate, especially for a game that hasn’t been publicly recognized by Nintendo very often. The SNES Classic, which included Super Mario RPG, was released on September 29th, 2017, more than half a year earlier. This date is especially interesting if we go back and consider that supposedly Nintendo pitched the idea of DLC to Sakurai around the time that the first Smash Ultimate trailer was shown in March. This potentially sets up a theory that Geno was considered very early on for DLC and perhaps the Tweet was a way to gauge public interest.
2. Nintendo of America Ambassador Says that Geno was Often Heard as Part of Office Rumors Starting in Fall 2018
As many people know, Sabi came into the Geno thread on Smashboards in early November 2018 to tell the thread that their NoA Ambassador friend had heard Geno in NoA office rumors. This original post can be found here:
Shortly after Sabi made that post, I then made mention that I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them to prove that they had sources privately via DMs. Those posts can be found here:
Sabi was able to prove not only the existence of the NoA Ambassador but also the fact that the NoA Ambassador had a stunning track record, hinting at almost all the characters that had been shown up until that point. From there, I was accepted into Sabi’s private circle with 9 other people, including the NoA Ambassador. Over the course of a year, I become friends with the NoA Ambassador and he managed to deliver time and time again. He knew Direct dates. He knew about Sword and Shield, Mario Maker 2, Link’s Awakening, Banjo in Smash, Breath of the Wild 2, and Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition. He shared scores of rumors from his own friends and contacts that would ultimately wind up being true such as the Devil May Cry Trilogy, the Witcher III on Switch, and Guilty Gear on Switch among others. Whenever the NoA Ambassador reported on something, he always assured us that he only did so because he believed the rumors had a decent chance of being true and that he had heard them from his more reliable contacts. More than a year later, I absolutely take what the NoA Ambassador said at face value and, as a trusted friend, I have strong confidence that he will ultimately be right in the end.
3. Geno is an Answer during Nintendo’s Official HQ Trivia Quiz during the 2018 VGAs.
The archive of this quiz can be found here:
https://hqbuff.com/us/game/2018-12-06/3
Very strangely, Geno is directly referenced in Question 8: “In which of these games was one of the main characters a possessed doll?” The correct answer is Super Mario RPG. Again, the timing is suspect based on a wide variety of factors. We’ve already established that Geno was heard in plenty of insider conversations up to this point including at NoA itself and, once again thanks to ForsakenM, we’ve established a solid theory that the idea of a “Season 2” was possibly pitched as early as December 2018 given the 16 dummy slots did not appear in Smash Ulimate’s code until January 2019. Other particular things of interest in this quiz are that it references Waluigi and Ryu too, two other characters that have been in insider conversations since 2018.
4. The Timing of the Mario RPG Copyright Takedowns on YouTube
In the summer of 2019, one of the most popular Nintendo music channels on YouTube, BrawlBRSTMs5 X, had multiple copyright strikes from Nintendo itself on two of its most popular Super Mario RPG tracks, “Beware the Forest’s Mushrooms” and “Fight Against an Armed Boss.” According to them, they had multiple copyright strikes throughout the year, specifically targeting their most popular videos. Before their takedown, both of their uploads of these two tracks were the most popular on YouTube, with both having more than a million views. Now, given Nintendo’s copyright practices in 2019, this isn’t particularly unusual on its own but the timing is incredibly suspect.
As established earlier, in July 2019, Papagenos received the Mii costume leak from one of his contacts. As a recap, this list provided two lists of names: one list had Mallow, Smithy, and Chocobo and the other had Goemon, Rocket Grunt, Zero, and Protoman. Based on the timing, it was assumed that the first list would be coming with Hero and the second list would be coming with Banjo despite not having any Microsoft or Rare characters in it. As time would show, the SMRPG characters did not appear with Hero but the second list did appear with Banjo. It’s definitely quite a coincidence. Yet again referencing ForsakenM’s timeline, we have a hypothesis that “Season 2” was greenlit around the time of E3 2019. Furthermore, we’ve also established a strange pattern with Square Enix when it comes to music. With Cloud, he only came with two tracks from Final Fantasy VII and with Hero, each of the Heroes came with two tracks from their respective games (III, IV, VIII, and XI respectively). This suggests a pattern in Square only licensing out two tracks per game represented in Smash Bros. The fact that two SMRPG tracks, the most popular ones at that, were copyright struck by Nintendo and not Square is quite a coincidence although could simply be that: a coincidence.
Talk Among Notable Smash Insiders
The final topic that I would like to address when it comes to Geno and why I believe he will be coming as DLC is the long history of confidence that he has had among notable insiders. As noted many times before, Geno has been heard in insider circles since the fall of 2018. The truth of the matter is that he’s been heard by virtually every major player in Smash speculation since serious Smash Ultimate speculation began. He had been heard by Vergeben, Hitagi, Xenother, Krono, and Sabi according to the Seven Square Leak in August 2018. This also lines up with rumors that had been heard by Nintendo employees and even Resetera mods. He was cited by Stealth as a prediction for Smash DLC along with Banjo in the Fall of 2018. As explained, Papagenos has heard Geno’s name among some of his most reliable contacts since the summer of 2019. Along with this GameXplain included Geno in their Smash speculation videos as early as the fall of 2018 and has had him appear with more frequency and in multiple videos starting in the fall of 2019, even appearing in their VGA prediction video (although noticeably absent from their “there are no rules” video from about a month earlier). Again, Geno has established himself as a name that won’t go away and, as this entire essay has shown, has even been mentioned in official capacities by Nintendo and Square Enix itself. For the final time, this is pretty extraordinary for a character that has only had one major appearance in almost two and a half decades.
In Conclusion: Reaching the End of Star Road
The definition of speculation is “the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.” In other words, speculation is subjective and, like any other kind of analysis, information can change overtime and lead to dead ends or simply wrong conclusions. As someone who has participated in Smash speculation for virtually my entire adult life, I understand this all too well. The ideas in this essay cannot be expressed with 100 percent confidence because not all the evidence is 100 percent objective. Strong confidence? Yes. Absolute confidence? No. This, however, is the basis of theorycrafting. A hypothesis is developed and, from there, you search for clues and see what fits together and connects. Sometimes it’s a very frustrating and painstaking process. Ideas developed over months or even years can be demolished with brand new evidence but that’s merely a simple truth of the scientific process: being wrong but continuing anyways. In order to learn, you need to be willing to be wrong and learn from your mistakes because if you fear being wrong, you can’t grow intellectually.
Although it doesn’t have a lot of significance in the grand scheme of things, Smash speculation too is a process of trial and error. Once again, ideas can be held onto for years before they are totally toppled over. This, however, is merely the Scientific Method. To some degree, science is making sense to chaos and establishing patterns within entropy. Again, this isn’t exactly Nobel Prize territory but it is the basis of scientific and philosophical discovery. “Connecting dots” doesn’t make us crazy, quite the opposite. Yes, wrong conclusions can be drawn but at the same time we need to remember to change our thinking with the changing of evidence. Again, on this matter of little importance as a video game character coming to a video game, I hope I have demonstrated consistency and logic that perhaps many people merely dismissed as coincidences and unimportant. Perhaps on my own end, at 32, it’s been a lifelong lesson in finding confidence in my own thinking and how, in its own right, that takes a great amount of courage. It takes courage to believe in yourself and it takes courage to continue doing so when others tell you not to. It takes courage to accept being wrong and not being discouraged enough to continue. All in all, I think that’s appropriate for the theme of Geno, a character who I argue taught me a great deal about courage when I was only 8 years old and that’s why, in the end, I truly hope my theories on him coming to Smash Bros Ultimate and being #77 are correct. Once again, thank you all for your support over the years and hopefully our wait for Geno won’t be too much longer.