Email, Huey Rey Fischer, Feb. 19, 2016

On Fri, Feb 19, 2016 at 2:00 PM, Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin) wrote:

We reached the state demographer, Lloyd Potter, who emailed that U.S. Census Bureau 2014 population estimates released in June 2015 are considered more accurate than projections like the one you relied on. The bureau estimate suggests there were 4,715,612 people aged 18 to 29 in Texas in 2014 -- about 2,600 lower than your cited projection.

“Another factor to consider with this statement is the definition of electorate,” Potter said. “If electorate means eligible to vote, consideration of citizenship and felony status should probably figure into the picture.” His point: Some share of the voting-age population consists of residents not eligible to vote.

On behalf of the Secretary of State’s office, spokeswoman Alicia Pierce confirmed by email that its voting-age population figures posted for November 2014 included people “not eligible to vote such as non-citizens and those convicted of a felony who have not fully discharged their sentence.” She added: “If electorate means all those who are eligible to vote, we do not have a firm number.”

We also looked into the share of registered voters aged 18 through 29. As of Feb. 16, 2016, according to this SOS-provided breakdown, 2,473,507 Texas voters aged 18 through 29 were registered to vote, making up 17 percent of the state’s nearly 14.3 million registered voters.

Anything more to consider?

g.

(Fischer)

3:16 p.m.

This is a great point about people that might not be eligible to vote, however we would have to apply that same standard to those 30 and older as well, which might just mean that 18 - 29 year-olds end up being more that 25% of the electorate. Unfortunately, all we have to base this information off of is census data. I do not believe the Secretary of State's office or any other governmental agency maintains precise data regarding voting eligible population, which is why we used voting age population.

As for the registered versus non-registered voters -- electorate is defined as "all the people in a country or area who are entitled to vote in an election." An entitlement is "the condition of having a right to have, do, or get something." (both via google/online dictionaries). Therefore, non-registered voters are certainly part of the electorate by the very definition of the word.

As an aside, it is important to note that representatives are still called to represent felons, undocumented immigrants, non-citizen permanent residents, and others who may not be eligible to vote for a myriad of reasons.