Emails, Rachel K. Jones, principal research scientist, the Guttmacher Institute, Jan. 13 and 15, 2016

From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Sent: Wednesday, January 13, 2016 4:42 PM

Subject: Texas reporter, following up

Rachel:

Good afternoon. I write afresh hoping that you can help us explain to readers, in lay terms, how the 2011 study you co-authored reached its conclusion that “almost one-third of women are anticipated to have an abortion by age 45.” I ask because we are checking a claim by Wendy Davis that “approximately one out of every three women in this country has had an abortion in her lifetime.”

I’d be happy to visit in detail by phone or email. I hope to complete this fact check this week.

g.

W. Gardner Selby

Reporter / News

Austin American-Statesman

PolitiFact Texas

From: Rachel Jones

Sent: Wednesday, January 13, 2016 3:55 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: RE: Texas reporter, following up

The stat comes from this article: http://journals.lww.com/greenjournal/Fulltext/2011/06000/Changes_in_Abortion_Rates_Between_2000_and_2008.14.aspx

Specifically, table 4 and the related text based on 2008 age-specific first-abortion rates:

In 2008, there were 2.4 abortions for every 1,000 adolescents under the age of 15 (Table 4). Because 97.3% (95% CI 83.4–99.6%) of these were first-time procedures, the first-abortion rate and cumulative first-abortion rate for this group were also 2.4 per 1,000. The overwhelming majority, 85.7% (95% CI 81.6–89.0%), of adolescents aged 15–17 were obtaining their first abortion. In turn, the first-abortion rate for this group was slightly lower than their overall abortion rate (9.7 compared with 11.3 per 1,000). By adding the first-abortion rate for women younger than 15 years to 3 times the first-abortion rate of women 15–17 (to account for the 3-year size of that age group), their cumulative first-abortion rate was 31.5 per 1,000.

The cumulative first-abortion rate increases with age, and women aged 40 and older had a rate of 300.9 per 1,000 women. Put differently, an estimated 30.1% of women aged 15–44 in 2008 will have an abortion by age 45 if exposed to prevailing abortion rates throughout their reproductive lives. Similarly, an estimated 8.3% of U.S. women would have had an abortion by age 20 and 25.1% by age 30

We won’t be able to update it (using 2014 abortion data) until 2017 at the earliest. Wendy Davis’s comment was incorrect because it implied that a random sample of women in 2016 would find that 30% of them would have had an abortion. Our stat is the projected lifetime incidence of abortion among women in 2008 by the time they turn 45. (That is, lots of women currently aged 15-44 have not had abortions but many will before they exit their reproductive years.)

We know that the abortion rate has dropped substantially since 2008, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the lifetime incidence has. There also have to be concomitant changes in age-specific first abortion rates.

Rachel K. Jones, PhD

Principal Research Scientist

Guttmacher Institute

From: Selby, Gardner

Sent: Friday, January 15, 2016 11:04 AM

Hello again. We heard back last night from a professor allied with anti-abortion activists. Michael New, a visiting associate professor at Florida’s Ave Maria University, emphasized Guttmacher’s 2011 analysis was retrospective, drawing on 2008 abortion data, while there may continue to be fewer U.S. abortions year by year. “The abortion rate,” New suggested, “has been falling consistently since the early 1980s and continues to fall,” especially among teens and young adults, he wrote, which might mean, if trends continue, that women in general will be less likely to have an abortion.

New further noted the FactChecker at The Washington Post in September found flaws in a similar “one in three” claim, stressing the “if” in the 2011 Guttmacher study’s statement that almost one-third of American women will obtain an abortion in their lifetime--if current abortion rates hold. We see the Post story quoted you saying the institute’s ongoing review of 2014 abortion patient surveys could possibly lead to a reduced estimate of the “lifetime incidence” of abortions. “The abortion rate was going down from 1992 to 2008,” you were quoted saying, “and we saw a substantial decline from lifetime incidence of abortion. Intuitively, we would see a decline … based on past patterns.” You also said you couldn’t make a prediction.

Does New’s offered analysis hold up?

Any further thoughts as we consider the accuracy of Davis’s claims in the legal brief that “Approximately one out of every three women in this country has had an abortion in her lifetime” and “One in every three women has an abortion during her lifetime.”

10:22 a.m.

Jan. 15, 2016

New hasn’t done an analyses of the lifetime incidence, he’s merely putting forward a hypothesis. We know that abortion rates have declined since 2008. It is possible that the lifetime abortion incidence has also declined, BUT it does not guarantee that it has declined. It also depends on how many patients are obtaining first abortions. It seems counterintuitive, but all other things being equal, the lifetime incidence would have been higher in 2008 if a higher proportion of women had been obtaining first abortions. A woman who has an abortion in her teens may have another abortion later in life, but it doesn’t impact the lifetime incidence because she’s already been “counted” for the abortion in her teens. If a woman gets through early adulthood but then has an abortion at 29, she’s a “new “contributor. These types of patterns could actually result in an increase in the lifetime incidence or could at least counter the “negative” impact of the overall decline in abortion. For these reasons I’m unwilling to put forth any hypotheses, we’re just going to have to wait until the 2014 abortion data are available. In the absence of any other information, it is appropriate to say that: “Given 2008 abortion rates, an estimated 30% of women will have an abortion by age 45.”

And heads up that I will be out of the office for the rest of the day starting at 11:45.

Rachel K. Jones, PhD

Principal Research Scientist

Guttmacher Institute