Sina Alavi
A War with Iran
Sina Alavi
Poli 70 Ronnie Lipschutz
James Beneda
In this paper I will argue that massive mobilization of the United States military against Iran is not in the best interest of the United States. For much of the past decade, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have engaged in a bitter dispute that has involved numerous sanctions on the Iranian economy with no indication that either side is willing to go to war. This international dispute has been caused by many factors but most importantly Iran’s pursuit for nuclear capability. Some analyst such as John Bolton, the former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, state that if Iran were able to gain the capability to build a nuclear weapon it would create an imbalance in the Middle East setting off a chain reaction for other countries to pursue such capabilities as well; such as Saudi Arabia and the extremely unstable Egypt (Bolton, 2010). On the other hand, scholar Kenneth N. Waltz suggests that a nuclear weaponized Iran would bring stability to the region by creating a balance of power between Israel and Iran (Waltz, 2012). The fact is that the United States is divided on the Iran issue just as much as these scholars; A study done by the University of Maryland suggests that most Americans are against attacking Iran but believe that a Nuclear Iran poses a real threat to Israel and the United States (Americans On Israel and the Iranian Nuclear Program, 2012). This begs the question, should the United States attack Iran and if they do what are the implications of such a war? Will it be a long war, will it destabilize the region, will the United States be threatened by terrorist organizations? These are all questions that need to be answered if the United States is truly considering military action against Iran. This paper will lay out Iran’s military capabilities in comparison to Iraq’s military capabilities during the start of the Iraq War to provide hindsight on how long a military standoff will last plus the level of insurgency against the American forces if the Iranian state falls. It is the purpose of this paper to analyze the effects of a conventional troops on the ground war between the United States and the Iranian military, and also the threat of terrorist organizations against the United States and its allies.
Iran’s military capability is no match to the monumental military capacity that the United States military holds. With that said it is much harder to go on an offensive than it is to be on the defensive. Iran has a total number of 500,000 to 525,000 military personnel in their military; this includes approximately 350,000 in their regular army, 18,000 in their navy, and 40,000 paramilitary personnel (Cordesman, “The Conventional MIlitary”). Their military is underdeveloped, lack sufficient training, lack up to date armory and weaponry, out of date vehicles and aircrafts that are in bad need of replacement parts (Cordesman, “The Conventional MIlitary”). With all that said, Iran’s military force is a defensive one with up to 11.2 million in reserve forces within the Basij Resistance Force (Alfoneh, “The Basij Resistance Force”). The Iranian army and the Iraqi army(Pre-invasion) are fairly similar, with the Iranian army having slightly more men, both have/had out-dated weapons and vehicles that are in bad shape (Cordesman, “The Conventional MIlitary”. Cordesman 60). The Iranian army can be defeated as quickly as the Iraqi army but statistics show Iran might take longer to defeat . In comparison the Iraqi military before invasion had approximately 375,000 personnel in their regular army and an additional 450,000 within their reserves (Cordesman 60). Much less than the current Iranian military, also taking into account that numerous divisions of the Iraqi Army surrendered to United States troops upon invasion something that is not likely to happen if the United States invades Iran. The Iranian military even at its weakest moment has been willing to sacrifice large portions of its military for its defense. An example of this can be found during the Iran-Iraq war; Iran only a mere year after the Islamic Revolution, with their army depleted, no military structure, lack of weapons and vehicles the Iranian military implemented human wave attacks which resulted in high rates of casualties for the Iranian military, this act of sacrifice pushed the Iraqi Army back to their border (Brecher, 2003). Iran now with a population of 80 million people with a majority of its population between the ages of 15-54, the median age being 28.3 has around 23 million able bodied men available for service all who have been required to serve in the military for 18 months (CIA The World Factbook). A large untrained Iranian force will not be an easy task for the United States military even with all their advanced weaponry. The United States military will be able to destroy many of Iran’s military bases but that does not reduce the size of its manpower. What should concern the United States military are the resistance forces of the Iranian military it will have to fight once the army is defeated. With a current capacity of enrolling 23 million men defeating the resistance forces will not be easy. It is highly unlikely that the Iranian government will surrender which will cause high casualties on the Iranian side due to the resistance forces lack of training and depleted supplies; the United States forces will most likely see moderate casualties due to the sheer size of Iran’s resistance forces and enlisting capacity. Therefore if the United States does invade Iran it will have to exhaust more resources than it had in the Iraq War to defeat Iran in conventional warfare. Iraq was defeated within a month, the Iranian army will have a similar fate but the resistance forces will delay the inevitable outcome. Most likely the conventional war will last between 3 months to a year at most due to the Iran’s geographical size, national sentiment and manpower.
A war of such magnitude will weaken the Iranian state allowing for multiple insurgency groups to enter the country. For most of the past decade Iran has disallowed terrorist organizations to take root within the countries border. A war with the United States will cause the Iranian state to focus its resources on defending the country from American troops. The war will most likely see higher insurgency levels in Iran by Shia militant groups than American forces faced during the Iraq War. There are three factors that allow higher levels of insurgency in Iran and around the globe than possible during the Iraq War. The first factor being the immense size of the country, Iran has a total area of 1,648,195 square kilometers (CIA The World Factbook) almost four times larger than Iraq, which has a total area of 438,317 square kilometers (CIA The World Factbook). The vast amount of land will be extremely difficult for the Iranian state to regulate during war as they will have to allocate most of their resources to fight American forces, it will also be difficult for American forces once the Iranian state is defeated. This poses a major threat to American forces because American forces will most likely have to fight off extremist groups just as they did in Iraq except in Iran it will be much easier for extremist groups to supply their insurgents with weapons and ammunition as well as train them. Due to the immense size of Iran it will be far more difficult for American forces to maintain security than it was to maintain security in Iraq. The second factor being Iran is the only Shi’ite majority state (“Mapping the Global Muslim Population”). Iran’s population is 90-95% shi’ite muslim and contains 37-40% of the Shi’ite muslim population in the world (“Mapping the Global Muslim Population”). Being the only nation that is majority shi’ite, American forces in Iran and abroad can expect shi’ite militant forces such as Defenders of Khadamiya to increase their insurgency in Iran and around the world in the name of Shia Islam. While at the same time nations with a large minority of shi’ites in countries such as Iraq,Pakistan and Syria will urge their government to cut ties with the United States or provided assistance to Iran, as was seen in Pakistan following the defeat of the Taliban. This will bring much instability to the region as the most powerful shi’ite state is occupied by the United States. The third factor is that Iran funds many Shia militant groups around the world, an attack against Iran will result in these militant groups increasing their terrorist activities. Iran has said to have close connections with Hezbollah and is believed to fund Hezbollah with 200 million dollars a year (Giraldo and Trinkunas 137). With Iran under serious threat these terrorist organizations are likely to increase their insurgency levels and perform acts of terror within the U.S. or on U.S. allies such as Israel.
In conclusion it is in the best interest of the United States to withhold any military action against Iran. Such a war will have far worse implications than the Iraq War; a war with Iran will last longer that the Iraq War, and once the Iranian state is defeated insurgency will be much harder to contain. This will not only bring instability to the Middle East but the fall of the Iranian state can lead to an increase in terrorist activities against the United States because such a vast land will be extremely hard to occupy with foreign troops. This also leads to another question how long is the United States willing to occupy knowing that occupation can not last forever? this is the achilles heel of such a war. The outcome can be far worse than ever perceived. The war will also have economic impacts: with Iran being a large exporter of petroleum it will surely cause inflation around the globe as aggregate prices increase due to petroleum supplies becoming more scarce with Iran focusing on a war. Lastly such a war will cause diplomatic ties with Russia, China and other nations in the Middle East who support Iran to become even more gridlocked. The United States should avoid war with Iran at all costs in order to maintain stability in the region and save countless American and Iranian lives. It should not invade Iran under the current pretenses but should continue its sanctions and if extremely necessary use strategic bombing. A war of such magnitude will not be quick: it will be long, treacherous and demanding, it will create a far larger problem than before. Conventional warfare might be quick but the insurgency will loom and this uncertainty should be enough reason to withhold any action that could potentially cause a much larger problem.
Bibliography