Emails (excerpted), Bruce Elfant, Travis County tax assessor-collector & voter registrar, Oct. 12 and 14, 2016
5:49 p.m.
The U. S. Census publishes an annual American Community Survey that enables us to estimate the Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) for Travis County. The most recent CVAP estimate is for 2015.
Year: | 2014 | 2015 |
Total Travis County Population: | 1,151,145 | 1,176,558 |
Male Under 18 Years: | (135,568) | (137,334) |
Male Over 18 years & Not A US Citizen: | (69,585) | (73,613) |
Female Under 18 Years: | (129,641) | (130,608) |
Female Over 18 years & Not A US Citizen: | (56,825) | (56,926) |
Citizen Voting Age Population: | 759,526 | 778,077 |
We didn’t want to base our percentage on a number that was a year old so we estimated the annual population increase using the 2014 and 2015 Census CVAP estimates.
2014 CVAP = 759,526
2015 CVAP = 778,077
Estimated Annual CVAP Increase = 18,551 (778,077 – 759,526)
2016 CVAP population increase though mid-October = 16,232 (18,551/12= 1546*10.5)
2016 CVAP + 2016 10.5 months estimate = 794,309
The counter on our web site as of 5:00 Wednesday indicates that there are currently about 717,694 registered voters but we may still have 20,000 or more voter registration applications to process and don’t know how many of those are new voters versus addresses updates. At this point right at 90% of CVAP are registered to vote.
Voter Registrations 2016 CVAP
717,694 / 794,309 = 90.35%
Bruce Elfant I Travis County Tax Assessor-Collector & Voter Registrar
On Oct 13, 2016, at 5:19 PM, "Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)" wrote:
Why did you tie your 2016 estimate of voting-age citizens to mid-October? Was it because of the Oct. 11 voter registration deadline?
G.
5:38 p.m.
Yes. We want the registered voters and the CVAP to be from the same time frame.
2:17 p.m.
Oct. 14, 2016
…
With at least 17,000 voter registrations still unprocessed, it is likely that 91% or even 92% are actually registered to vote but we won’t have a final tally for another week.