Evtol Time-Line Look-Outs (2025 to Early 2026):
September
25-28 at Bethpage Black Course for Ryder Golf Tournament in Farmingdale, New York. Joby will be hailing people to the golf course. Expect a 5% movement. Don’t hold position more than one night.
October
-Joby Aviation is scheduled for a major public "premiere" at Expo 2025 in Osaka, Japan. October 1 to October 13, 2025. Attract approximately 28 million visitors over its six-month run. Will generate huge trust and awareness in the EVTOL industry. Scale: The event takes place on a 383-acre artificial island called Yumeshima and features pavilions from over 150 countries and international organizations Expect a 10% movement especially on purchases at air show. *Don’t hold position past October 15th*
-Xpeng (chinese EVTOL company) is scheduled to conduct the inaugural public flight of its "Land Aircraft Carrier" flying car in Dubai. (date not announced but it’s in October)
November
Joby and Archer will be presenting at the Dubai Airshow November 17th to the 21st.
December:
-Mature EVTOL aircraft to begin trial operations in select markets before receiving full FAA Type Certification. To be selected by December 3, 2025 by the whitehouse. This will be a major milestone, as it will determine the first real-world, government-supported demonstrations of air taxi services in the U.S. Expect a 10 to 15% movement *don’t hold position longer than 3 days*
-The draft revision of the Civil Aviation Law has been submitted to the National People's Congress Standing Committee, China's top legislative body. Looking for final approval in December. Expect a 5% movement.
-The construction of XPeng's dedicated flying car manufacturing facility is scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
-Archer Aviation to ramp production to a rate of two aircraft per month by the end of 2025. Watch for the announcement.
-Evex (3rd best US evtol company) first flight test in December 2025.
-Joby has a stated goal of carrying its first passengers in late 2025 or early 2026, pending certification progress.
March 2026:
-FAA will select at least five projects by March 11, 2026 under the EIPP program where companies will submit final proposals for projects involving a specific use case for evtols in the public, operational concepts, and data sharing with FAA so they can build regulations. Benefits for companies participating are: Accelerated Path to Commercialization and influence of regulation rules. Joby and Archer are already participating in this program. Expect a 10% uptick in stock when news hits on their chosen project.
Early 2026:
-UK launch with Virgin Atlantic.
-Joby and/or Archer will pass their type testing and receive final FAA certification. Expect a 20% or more movement. Hold position no longer than 3 days.
Watch Out For:
- "Local Innovation for Flight Technologies (LIFT) Act of 2025": This bill was introduced in the House of Representatives and includes a provision to establish an eVTOL pilot program that would provide grants to state and local governments but also it directs the Secretary of Transportation to issue a rule to enable routine BVLOS (beyond vision line of sight) operations for drones and US manufacturing of drones." - Expect a 20% movement or more when signed for Joby or Archer Aviation *don’t hold position longer than 3 days*
- The FAA was directed to issue a proposed rule to enable BVLOS operations, with a final rule anticipated by early 2026. This is a crucial step for allowing scaled commercial operations like cargo delivery and air taxi services. Expect a 10% to 15% movement. *don’t hold position longer than 2 days*
-In early March 2026, news will hit about Archer and Joby’s EIPP projects being awarded. Expect a 10% to 15% movement. *don’t hold position longer than 2 days*
-When Joby and/or receive their Type Certificate, it means that the FAA has officially stamped its approval on the aircraft's design. From that point, every aircraft of that specific model that the company manufactures can be assumed to be airworthy, so long as it is built and maintained exactly to the certified design. Without the Type Certificate, an aircraft cannot legally carry paying passengers. Final FAA certification requirements and receiving its Type Certificate is to be expected in 2026 -Expect a 15% to 20% movement.
-For any of the companies to buy out existing taxi businesses etc. to gain entrance to worldwide market (IE how Joby bought out Blade Taxi)
Previous Announcement Movements:
Joby passes 4th phase of testing. - 23.95% 4 day rally
Joby receives Part 141 for flight training approval. - 19.84% 4 day rally
November 7th Archer gained a 500 M order - 31.56% 4 day rally
June 6th President Trump signed the executive order titled "Unleashing American Drone Dominance" along with Evtol Guidelines - 30.51% 4 day rally
August 4th Joby acquired Blade (worldwide taxi business to enter the market) - 17.58% 1 day rally
August 20th Archer completes 55-mile flight in Midnight aircraft - 5.91% 3 day rally
August 20th Joby completes its first test flight - 7.87% one day rally
September 12th The White House announced the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). - 17% 3 day rally
Final Assessment:
Major stock movements revolve around legislation being approved (IE Trump signing the “Drone Dominance Bill”, major investments by established companies (IE Toyota investing 250M in Joby), completing stages of FAA certification and acquisitions of existing businesses to speed up market entry ( IE Joby acquiring Blade’s worldwide taxi business).
Currently, in the US there are two bills that WHEN signed will move industry forward drastically. (highlighted above) Rallies of legislation last up to three days where all other announcements only go for one day, two days max. Second most major stock movement is after air shows where companies present and get orders (highlighted above)
Archer and Joby are both in the 4th stage out of five stages in the FAA cert process. The 4th stage is where the manufacturer builds a "conforming aircraft"—a production-ready prototype that is identical to the final design. The company then conducts a series of rigorous ground and flight tests. The "For-Credit" Component: The FAA observes and "credits" these tests. This is a crucial step because the FAA is formally accepting the test results as evidence of compliance with the agreed-upon safety standards. This includes evaluating every flight regime, from vertical takeoffs and landings to horizontal cruise flight, and assessing how the aircraft performs in various scenarios, including potential system failures.
The fifth stage is the “type test” where the entire aircraft is inspected and signed off on by the FAA. This will be one of the most impactful announcements yet given that it will allow the company to have official commercial operations. This isn’t expected until early 2026.
Chart Breakdown:
Joby (pictured above) is the main runner for the Evtol movement. However, Archer and Evex move up too with every major milestone that Joby accomplishes as the main sympathy play. That being said Joby’s 50 day moving average is currently extended far off the 200 moving average. I expect it to pull back after this most recent EIPP announcement hype before the December rallys. The main leading companies in China are Ehang and Xpeng.
I do prefer ACHR’s chart over JOBY’s given it’s 50 day moving average is just about to bounce off the 200 day moving average. It may not lose nearly as much momentum going into the December announcements.
Notes:
Joby is the main leader in EVTOL in public consciousness, followed by Archer Aviation and then EVEX. Archer and Joby have major backing investments by companies such as United Airlines, Embraerer, Toyota and Stellantis. They’re too big to fail.Though they’re pre-revenue companies the “low altitude air space movement” is akin to what the train was to transportation. If for whatever reason your capital gets “stuck” in their because of a bad trade in the long run you won’t have any issues.