8 URBAN DEVELOPMENT SERIES – KNOWLEDGE PAPERS
Waste Generation
At a Glance:
► MSW generation levels are expected to double by 2025.
► The higher the income level and rate of urbanization, the greater the amount of solid waste produced.
► OECD countries produce almost half of the world’s waste, while Africa and South Asia regions produce the least waste.
Current global MSW generation levels are approximately 1.3 billion tonnes per year, and are expected to increase to approximately 2.2 billion tonnes per year by 2025. This represents a signif- icant increase in per capita waste generation rates, from 1.2 to 1.42 kg per person per day in the next fifteen years. However, global averages are broad estimates only as rates vary considerably by region, country, city, and even within cities.
MSW generation rates are influenced by economic development, the degree of industrialization, public habits, and local climate. Generally, the higher the economic development and rate of urbanization, the greater the amount of solid waste produced. Income level and urbanization are highly correlated
and as disposable incomes and living standards increase, consumption of goods and services corre- spondingly increases, as does the amount of waste generated. Urban residents produce about twice as much waste as their rural counterparts.
Waste Generation by Region
Waste generation varies as a function of affluence, however, regional and country variations can be significant, as can generation rates within the same city. Annex A. Map of Regions illustrates the regional classification used in this report.
Collecting paper to be recycled, Mumbai, India
Throughout the report, when Africa is mentioned as a region, we refer to Sub-Saharan Africa. Data are particularly lacking for Sub-Saharan Africa.
Waste generation in sub-Saharan Africa is approxi- mately 62 million tonnes per year. Per capita waste generation is generally low in this region, but spans a wide range, from 0.09 to 3.0 kg per person per day, with an average of 0.65 kg/capita/day. The countries with the highest per capita rates are islands, likely due to waste generated by the tourism industry, and a more complete accounting of all wastes generated.
The annual waste generation in East Asia and the Pacific Region is approximately 270 million tonnes per year. This quantity is mainly influenced by waste generation in China, which makes up 70% of the regional total. Per capita waste generation ranges from 0.44 to 4.3 kg per person per day for
WHAT A WASTE: A GLOBAL REVIEW OF SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT 9
the region, with an average of 0.95 kg/capita/day (Hoornweg et al 2005).
In Eastern and Central Asia, the waste generated per year is at least 93 million tonnes. Eight countries in this region have no available data on waste gener- ation in the literature. The per capita waste gener- ation ranges from 0.29 to 2.1 kg per person per day, with an average of 1.1 kg/capita/day.
Latin America and the Caribbean has the most comprehensive and consistent data (e.g. PAHO’s Regional Evaluation of Solid Waste Management, 2005). The total amount of waste generated per year in this region is 160 million tonnes, with per capita values ranging from 0.1 to 14 kg/capita/ day, and an average of 1.1 kg/capita/day. Similar to the high per capita waste generation rates on islands in Africa, the largest per capita solid waste generation rates are found in the islands of the Caribbean.
In the Middle East and North Africa, solid waste generation is 63 million tonnes per year. Per capita waste generation is 0.16 to 5.7 kg per person per day, and has an average of 1.1 kg/capita/day.
The OECD countries generate 572 million tonnes of solid waste per year. The per capita values range from 1.1 to 3.7 kg per person per day with an average of 2.2 kg/capita/day.
TABLE Region
Waste Generation Per Capita (kg/capita/day)
Lower Boundary Upper Boundary Average
3 Current Waste Generation Per AFR 0.09 3.0 0.65
Capita by Region
EAP 0.44 4.3 0.95
(see Annex J)
ECA 0.29 2.1 1.1
LAC 0.11 142 1.1
MENA 0.16 5.7 1.1
OECD 1.10 3.7 2.2
SAR 0.12 5.1 0.45
In South Asia, approximately 70 million tonnes of waste is generated per year, with per capita values ranging from 0.12 to 5.1 kg per person per day and an average of 0.45 kg/capita/day.
Table 3 shows current waste generation per capita by region, indicating the lower boundary and upper boundary for each region, as well as average kg per capita per day of waste generated within each region.2
Figure 1 illustrates global waste generation per region, where OECD countries make up almost half
2 This table is not corrected for extraneous outliers, such as the 14.40 kg/ capita/day upper bound in Latin America and the Caribbean [Trinidad and Tobago].
AFR SAR
5% 5%
FIG. 1 MENA 6%
Waste Generation by Region
ECA 7%
OECD 44%
LAC 12%
EAP 21%
10 URBAN DEVELOPMENT SERIES – KNOWLEDGE PAPERS
TABLE 4 Waste Generation Projections for 2025 by Region
Income Level
Current Available Data Projections for 2025
Region
Total Urban Urban Waste Generation Population (millions)
Per Capita (kg/capita/day)
Projected Population Projected Urban Waste
Total
Total Popula-
Urban Popula-
Per Capita
Total (tons/day)
tion (millions)
tion (millions)
(kg/capita/day)
(tons/day)
AFR 260 0.65 169,119 1,152 518 0.85 441,840
EAP 777 0.95 738,958 2,124 1,229 1.5 1,865,379
ECA 227 1.1 254,389 339 239 1.5 354.810
LCR 399 1.1 437,545 681 466 1.6 728,392
MENA 162 1.1 173,545 379 257 1.43 369,320
OECD 729 2.2 1,566,286 1,031 842 2.1 1,742,417
SAR 426 0.45 192,410 1,938 734 0.77 567,545
Total 2,980 1.2 3,532,252 7,644 4,285 1.4 6,069,703
TABLE 5 Current Waste Generation Per Capita by Income Level
of the world’s waste, while Africa and South Asia figure as the regions that produce the least waste.
Table 4 shows estimates of waste generation for the year 2025 as expected according to current trends in population growth in each region.
Waste Generation by Country Income Level 3
High-income countries produce the most waste per capita, while low income countries produce the least solid waste per capita. Although the total waste generation for lower middle income countries is higher than that of upper middle income countries, likely skewed as a result of China’s inclusion in the lower middle income
3 Countries are classified into four income levels according to World Bank estimates of 2005 GNI per capita. High: $10,726 or above; Upper middle: $3,466-10,725; Lower middle: $876-3,465; and Lower: $875 or less.
Waste Generation Per Capita (kg/capita/day)
Lower Boundary Upper Boundary Average
High 0.70 14 2.1
Upper Middle 0.11 5.5 1.2
Lower Middle 0.16 5.3 0.79
Lower 0.09 4.3 0.60
group, the average per capita waste generation amounts for the various income groups reflect the income level of the countries (see Figure 2). The high, upper-middle, lower-middle, and low income designations are somewhat inaccurate as these classifications are country-wide, and in several countries average national affluence can be very different from average affluence of the urban populations. Only the affluence of urban residents is important in projecting MSW rates. For example, India and especially China have disproportionately high urban waste generation rates per capita relative to overall economic status as they have large relatively poor rural populations that tend to dilute national figures. Annex B. Map of Income Distribution illustrates the global classi- fication for income used in this report.
Table 5 shows current waste generation per capita by income level, indicating the lower
WHAT A WASTE: A GLOBAL REVIEW OF SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT 11
boundary and upper boundary for each region, as well as average kg per capita per day of waste generated within each group according to country income level.
Figure 2 presents global waste generation by country per income level, showing decreasing average rates of per capita waste generation according to income level.
Table 6 shows estimates of waste generation for the year 2025 as expected according to current trends in population growth as determined by country income level.
Methodology for collecting current data:
MSW generation data by country were collected from official government publications, reports by international agencies, and articles in peer- reviewed journals. Where possible, this report has used the same source for a group of countries so that the data are relatively standardized by method- ology and year. For example, MSW generation data for high-income countries are from OECD publications; countries in Latin America and the Caribbean from PAHO studies; and some Middle Eastern countries from METAP data.
In cases where only per capita waste generation rates were available, the total urban population for that year (World Bank, World Development Indicators) was used to calculate the total urban MSW generation.
Lower Income 6%
Lower Middle Income 29%
Upper Middle Income 19%
FIG. 2 Waste Generation by Income
High Income 46%
Where only total MSW generation numbers were available, total urban population for that year was used to calculate per capita waste generation, assuming that most of the waste generated is in urban areas and only a small fraction comes from rural areas.
For several African countries, data were not readily available. Hence, a per capita amount of 0.5 kg/ capita/day is assumed for urban areas for 2005. This estimate is based on the USAID 2009 publication on Environmental Guidelines for Small-Scale Activities in Africa (EGSSAA), 2nd Ed. and World Bank studies. For further information on MSW generation rates by country, please see Annex J. When reviewing
Current Available Data Projections for 2025 (from Annex J)
TABLE 6 Waste Generation
Total Urban Population
Projections for 2025 by Income
(millions)
Urban Waste Generation Projected Population Projected Urban Waste Region
Per Capita (kg/capita/ day)
Total (tons/day)
Total Popula- tion (millions)
Urban Per Population (millions)
Capita (kg/capita/ day)
Total (tons/day)
Lower Income 343 0.60 204,802 1,637 676 0.86 584,272
Lower Middle Income 1,293 0.78 1,012,321 4,010 2,080 1.3 2,618,804
Upper Middle Income 572 1.16 665,586 888 619 1.6 987,039
High Income 774 2.13 1,649,547 1,112 912 2.1 1,879,590
Total 2,982 1.19 3,532,256 7,647 4,287 1.4 6,069,705
12 URBAN DEVELOPMENT SERIES – KNOWLEDGE PAPERS
TABLE 7 Sources for 2025 Projections of Solid Waste Generation
the values presented in this report, it’s important to keep in mind that values for waste generation at a regional level can differ markedly because of the influence from a single country, such as the US, China or India.
Methodology for calculating 2025 projections:
Projections for urban municipal solid waste gener- ation in 2025 were made by factoring expected growth in population and GDP and estimated per capita waste generation. Projections for each country were made based on the level of expected
FIG. 3 Urban Waste Generation by Income Level and Year
Variable Data Source
Current GDP (current US$, 2005) World Development Indicators
GDP Projections by Region IEA Annual Energy Outlook (2005)
Urban Population Projections United Nations World Urbanization Prospects (2007)
TABLE 8 Average MSW
Income Level Average MSW Generation (kg/cap/day)
Generation Rates
Low-Income 0.6 – 1.0 by Income
Middle-Income 0.8 – 1.5
High-Income 1.1 – 4.5
0
GDP (high-, middle-, or low-income) and an average range of MSW generation based on that income level. Modest adjustments for current experience and waste generation practices were made where appropriate. Similar to ‘energy intensity’ urban residents also exhibit ‘waste intensity’.
For further information on the sources used for the 2025 projections please refer to Table 7.
Table 8 illustrates the range of MSW based on country income level. These values are supported by Table 6.
1,200
1,000
956
800
243
2010
Projected 2025 686 600
602
400
369
360
213 200
75
Urban Population (millions) 343 676 1,293 2,080 573 619 774 912 Waste (kg/capita/year) 219 343 288 344 423 628 777 840
Country Income Group
Lower Income
Lower Middle
Upper Middle Income
Income
High Income