Charnin Posts

BOOKS

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

Conspiracy theories and mathematical probabilities

Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary

Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

1988-2008 unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: 52-42% Democratic margin

2004-2016 Election forecast;1968-2012 True Vote Model

RECENT POSTS

Sensitivity of 2016 electoral and popular vote to registered voter turnout

Clinton did-not win the popular vote: unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes are bogus

2016 True Vote analysis: Voter Turnout

So I’m a left wing internet crank who has been weaponized for Trump by Roger Stone?

2016 election:illegal voters, uncounted votes, machine vote flipping

Proof Oswald was standing in front of the TSBD when JFK was shot

Russian Tampering With the Election?

Seth Rich: conspiracy probability calculator

Univ of VA Study:20% of Trump voters were former Obama voters

Syrian Gas Attack a Hoax? Selected Readings

Analysis: Drills staged during terror attacks

ELECTION FRAUD

Historical overview of Election Fraud

Proving Election Fraud: The PC, Spreadsheets and the Internet

http://richardcharnin.com/GraphExposeMedia.pdf

To believe Bush won in 2004, you must believe...

To believe Obama won in 2008 by just 9.5 million votes, you must believe…

Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe

Response to the Truth Is All FAQ (updated 4/9/12)

Mark Lindeman: still blowing exit poll smoke

A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Institutional Investor: Technology Raises Election Fraud Issues

Can Current Technology Insure Fair Elections?

2016 ELECTION

Nov.7 forecast: Trump 306 EV recorded; 351 True Vote

Summary vote share/electoral vote analysis

Unadjusted Exit Polls vs. Reported Vs. True Vote

Pre-election polls in 16 battleground states were biased for Clinton

Clinton's popular vote margin is a myth

2016 recounts: why not add these states?

Vote share and Electoral vote analysis

Pre-election and national exit poll categories vs the True Vote

My comments to the MSM on the rigging of the 2016 pre-election-polls

Implausible 2016 Unadjusted exit polls: NV CA NY PA WI FL NC IA MO NJ OH MI

Voter turnout and vote share sensitivity analysis

True vote analysis: illegal voters,uncounted-votes,vote flipping

Why the 2016 recorded vote and unadjusted exit polls are wrong

Voter turnout and vote share sensitivity analysis

Adjusted pre election polls in the True Vote Model indicate Trump won by 5 million votes

Why isn't congress asking these intelligence officers to testify?

2016 NEP vs.TVM: How did you vote in the 2012 election

Trump won the True vote; Clinton won the fraudulent Recorded vote

Pre-election model: Calculating the expected electoral vote

True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 voters

State Presidential True Vote Model

Humboldt Cty: More clues on election fraud

California: Four election scenarios

Election Model: 9 pre election polls-5 Non MSM+4 MSM

Trump approval: MSM still Oversampling Democrats

Race: 2012-2016 national exit poll and 2012 census

Ohio sensitivity analysis-unadjusted exit poll anomalies

Presidential vote share/EV spreadsheet

Cumulative Vote Shares: IL,MI, CA

WI CVS: Clinton vs. Burke 2014

Election Model Nov 7- Trump 306 EV recorded; 351 True Vote

Election Model: Scenario Analysis

Election Model vs. Recorded Vote

Election Model Nov 3- Trump 98% win probability

Election Model Oct 30- Trump surging

Comparing Five Pre-election polls

A Tale of Two Pre-election polls

Pre-election presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

The new scanning systems,FRACTION MAGIC and Humboldt County CA

Oct 12, 2016: Online debates, focus groups and strange pre-election polls

Aug 24 Ipsos poll: Jill Stein at 3%; Independents 12% of the sample

Strange polls: Jill Stein at 1%; just 14% of respondents Independents?

Election Model: Stein vs Clinton vs Trump vs Johnson

2016 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud (new book)

Primary Election Model Spreadsheet

Election Justice USA: Massive 2016 Democratic primary fraud

CA primary timeline indicates it was stolen in early voting

Nina Illingworth: Wicked game: the clandestine murder of democracy

Exit polls: True vs. Recorded vote

Entrance poll anomalies: Iowa and Nevada caucuses

Forcing a match to the recorded vote

Exit Poll Party-ID: Sanders vs. Clinton

Confirmation: Bernie won California by at least 100,000 votes

California primary: Bernie leads Vote Count since Election Day

Bernie landslide in CA Humboldt County: Open Source

Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Smoking Gun: approximately 15% of Sanders' Votes Flipped in California

Democratic Primary True Vote Model

Exit polls adjusted to match the recorded vote within 0.06%

Sanders did much better in paper ballot states

Connecticut: did Clinton really win?

Approval ratings indicate fraud

Is Clinton leading by 3 million votes?

Primary Election Model: Sanders vs. Clinton vs. Trump

Election Fraud: Response to Joshua Holland

Exit Polls: Fitrakis flunks Holland

Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis

NY Democratic Primary: your forecast

Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries

WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

AZ primary: Voter suppression in Maricopa County

Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries

MI primary: Bernie did better than the recorded vote indicates

MA Democratic primary; a stolen election

Election Fraud 2016: the Democratic Debate

2016 presidential election: will voter turnout overwhelm the built-in-fraud-factor?

2016 presidential election: preliminary True Vote analysis

1968-2016 Election Fraud Overview

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42% - but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability P is virtually ABSOLUTE ZERO (5E-106). That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000005.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Not one political scientist, pollster, statistician, mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and mainstream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic - beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytical evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: Final national and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares. All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. To use these forced final exit polls as the basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. The UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate and closely matched the True Vote in 1988-2008. A comparison of ADJUSTED, PUBLISHED exit polls in elections prior to 2004 and PRELIMINARY exit polls since then is like comparing apples to oranges. The adjusted, published exit polls have always exactly matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to do so. That's why they APPEAR to have been accurate. The RECORDED vote has deviated from the TRUE VOTE in EVERY election since 1968 – always favoring the Republicans.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. But approximately 11 million ballots (75% Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that Clinton won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that Clinton had 53.6%.

In 2000, Al Gore won the 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had him winning by 51.5-44.7%. But the Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. The following states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one state. Democracy died in this election.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly 2004 Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters - but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Only 48 million were alive in 2004. Approximately 46 million voted, therefore the Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million. The Final NEP implied that there was an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004. The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV.

But there was much further confirmation of a Kerry landslide. Consider Final NEP adjustments made to Bush’s approval rating and Party–ID crosstabs.

Bush had a 48% national approval rating in the final 11 pre-election polls. But the Final NEP indicated that he had a 53% rating – even though he had just 50% in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential between the Final NEP and state exit poll approval ratings, let’s deduct 3% from his 48% pre-election approval, giving him a 45% vote share. That is a virtual match to the True Vote Model (which Kerry won by 53.5-45.5%). The exit pollsters inflated Bush’s final pre-election 48% average rating by 5% in the Final NEP order to force a match to the recorded vote - and perpetuate the fraud. Kerry’s 51.7% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate understated his True Vote Model share. There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and unadjusted exit poll share.

The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. As they did in all demographic crosstabs, the pollsters had to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote; they needed to specify a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93.

This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% - before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters - but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms, the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate and Governor were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Senate, Governor, Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls. Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The True Vote Model projected that Obama would win by 55-43% with 391 electoral votes. But since just 31 states were exit polled, a comparison between the True Vote Model and the state and national unadjusted exit polls (red-shift) was not possible. Obama won the 11.7 million Late votes recorded after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%, within 2% of his True vote share.

The 2016 primaries were rigged. The odds of fraud: 77 Billion to One.

The 2016 election was rigged for Clinton but Trump won with 306 EV.

TRUE VOTE MODELS

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Presidential Exit Polls

2004-2012 Election Forecast and 1968-2012 True Vote Models

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Spreadsheet

1988-2008 Election Database: Unadjusted State & National Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

1968-2012 Presidential Election Fraud: An Interactive True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential State Exit Poll Aggregate: A 52-42% Democratic Margin

1968-2008 Recursive National Presidential True Vote Model

2004-2008 County Presidential True Vote Model

2000-2004 County Presidential True Vote Model

2004: True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis: Kerry Landslide

2008: to believe Obama won by just 9.5 million-votes,,,

2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model

1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis

Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls

Footprints of Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

Bob Fitrakis: Wisconsin: None Dare Call it Vote Rigging

The Red-shift - Why it is Important

Wisconsin Recall Election Questions

Election Fraud: Exit Poll Probability Analysis

2000-2012 Presidential Vote Survey

The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis

An Introduction to the True Vote Model

Using the Online True Vote Model

Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Avoiding the Election Fraud Factor: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media Reluctant Bush Responder

An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required

2002 Senate Midterms Probability Analysis

Early Voting on Paper Ballots vs. Election Day Voting on Machines

Late Vote Anomalies: 2000-2008

Historical Elections

The model indicates that two elections were definitely stolen (2000 and 2004) and probably two others (1968 and 1988) as well. In order to match the official vote, there had to be an average 94% turnout of returning Democrats and 106% of Republicans. The average Republican turnout was 114% when Nixon and Bush were the incumbents; it was 98% otherwise. The average True Vote discrepancy was 10.3% when Nixon and Bush were incumbents; it was 3.6% otherwise.

In 1968, Nixon won the official vote by 0.5m.

Humphrey won the True Vote by 2 million.

There were 6 million uncounted votes.

In 1972, Nixon won a 17 million landslide with 61.8% of the vote.

His True Vote share was 57%.

There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.

In 1976, Carter won the official vote by 1.7m.

He won the True Vote by 6 million with 53%.

There were 6.7 million uncounted votes.

In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter by 8 million votes.

There were 6.4 million uncounted votes.

In 1984, Reagan defeated Mondale by 17 million votes.

There were 9.2 million uncounted votes.

In 1988, Bush won the official vote by 7.0m.

Dukakis may have won a squeaker.

There were 10.6 million uncounted votes.

In 1992, Clinton won the official vote by 6m.

He won the True Vote by over 20 million.

There were 9.5 million uncounted votes.

Independent candidate Ross Perot had 19% of the recorded vote.

In 1996, Clinton won the official vote by 8m.

He won the True Vote by 16 million.

There were 8.7 million uncounted votes.

Independent candidate Ross Perot had 10% of the vote.

In 2000, Gore won the official vote by 0.54 million.

He won the True Vote by 4 million.

There were 5.4 million uncounted votes.

But he lost in Scotus by ONE vote.

In 2004, Bush won the official vote by 3.0m.

Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.

It had an impossible 43/37% Bush/Gore returning voter split.

There were 3.4 million net uncounted votes.

HAVA guess how many were stuffed or switched?

In 2008, Obama won the official vote by 9.5m.

He won the True Vote by over 20 million.

The Final National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote.

It had an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter split.

In mathematical terms,

True Vote for candidate k in election i is sum product of the mix and vote shares.

i = election index, where i=0,10 (1968 to 2008)

j = new and returning voter index (1= New, 2=Dem, 3=Rep, 4=Other)

k = share of new and returning voters (1=Dem, 2=Rep, 3=Other)

Mix (i,k) = new and returning voter share (j) of election (i-1) total votes cast

NEP (i, j, k) = National Exit Poll (i) shares (k) of new and returning voters (j)

TV (i, k) = å Mix (i, j)* NEP(i, j, k), j=1,4; k =1,3

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the recorded vote is always different from the True Vote. Unlike the misinformation spread in the media, voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures. It’s the fault of the humans who program them.

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 Recursive National True Vote Model indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% - a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

EXIT POLLS

Exit Pollsters Edison Research Ignore the Fraud Factor

1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database (35 tables and graphs)

2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election

Exit Pollsters Edison - Mitofsky 2004 Evaluation Report

Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview

Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis

Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text

Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Why Won't the National Election Pool Release Unadjusted Exit Polls?

A Compendium of Election Fraud Links

Avoiding the Election Fraud Factor: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media

Footprints of Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls

An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required

The unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: closing the book on "False Recall"

Unadjusted Exit Poll Probability Analysis Links

Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability

A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud

2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

2004: Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the election

2014 MIDTERMS

2014 Senate: where are the minority voters

NC 2014 Senate: Models Indicate Likely Stolen

2014 Gov Election Fraud: Voter Turnout and Party Preference

Cumulative Vote Share Anomalies: Indicators of Rigged Elections

Election Forensics: 2014 Governor races

Proving Election Fraud: Cumulative Vote Shares

Six Governor Elections Cumulative Vote Shares Indicate Fraud

2014 Governor exit polls: Where are the Minority voters?

2014 Governor Election Models: TVM, CVS, VTM, Census votes cast

2014 Election Fraud: Four Statistical Models

2014 Gov: Cumulative Vote Shares and True Votes

KS 2014 Governor: Models Indicate Fraud

VT 2014 Governor: Democrat Won but...

OR 2014 Governor: Models Confirm Honest Elections

ME 2014 Governor: Models Indicate a Stolen Election

MI 2014 Governor: Models Indicate Likely Fraud

KY 2015 Governor Cumulative Vote Shares

KS 2014 Senate: Cumulative Vote share model confirms Wichita State Statistician

WI 2014 Governor True Vote Analysis

WI 2014 Governor election fraud: cumulative precinct vote shares

FL 2014 Governor True Vote Analysis

FL 2014 Governor: Cumulative Vote Share Analysis Update

FL 2014 Governor election fraud: cumulative precinct vote shares

MA 2014 Governor: Cumulative Vote Shares Indicate Fraud

MD 2014 Governor: Early, Election Day and Late Votes

SD 2014 Cumulative vote shares

WI and FL governor: adjusting the exit poll Party-ID mix

2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2012 Presidential True Vote Model

Final Presidential 2012 Forecast: Is there just ONE Pundit Who Considered the Fraud Factor?

2012 Forecast Model exactly matched Obama’s 332 Recorded EV...but his True EV was 370-380

Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Why did the Networks Cancel Exit Polls in 19 States?

True Vote Model Scenarios: What will it take for Romney to win?

Comparing 2012 to 2008: Late Votes, Total Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

2012: Obama May Win the True Vote and Still Lose the Election

2012 Presidential True Vote Model Scenarios

2012 Election Fraud: Simple Algebra of Early, Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

2012 Election Fraud: Third-party Vote

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

2012 Late Recorded Votes: Confirmation of the True Vote?

2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model

2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Model

WISCONSIN: 2010-2016

WI and FL governor: adjusting the exit poll Party-ID mix

WI 2014 Governor True Vote Analysis

WI 2014 Governor election fraud: cumulative precinct vote shares

Four Wisconsin Elections: A Pattern of County Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

Walker Recall: County Cumulative Vote Shares by Increasing Unit/Ward Size

Probability of Mixed Precinct/Ward Vote Discrepancies: Optical Scanners & Touch Screens

Walker Recall True Vote Database Model: County, Municipal and Unit Ward

True Vote Model Analysis: Walker Recall

Walker Recall True Vote Model: Implausible Vote Shares required to Match the Recorded Vote

Walker Recall: The Exit Pollster’s MO Never Changes

Walker Recall: The Adjusted Final Exit Poll Was Forced to Match an Unlikely Recorded Vote

Did the GOP Steal the Wisconsin Recall Elections? A True Vote Analysis

Recall Elections: Exit Poll, Recorded and True Vote Comparison

Will the Wisconsin Democratic Recall Elections Be Stolen? A True Vote Analysis

Wisconsin Recall Election Projections

The Walker Recall: Is the Past Prologue?

2010-2011 Wisconsin: Senate, Governor, Supreme Court and Recall Elections

WI 2011 Supreme Court: Cumulative Vote Shares Confirm the Stolen Election

2011 Wisconsin Recalls: Exit Polls and the True Vote Model

2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court: True Vote Analysis

Wisconsin Supreme Court County Vote Analysis

WI 2010 True Vote and Cumulative Vote Shares Indicate Feingold won

A Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2008)

1968-2008 Recursive National Presidential True Vote Model

In the first game of the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays made a miracle over-the-head catch. He implicitly calculated the mathematical trajectory of the ball at the crack of the bat using his built-in computer. Calculating the True Vote is more complex; the trajectory equation changes over time as the dynamics of the electorate change. The current election equation is a recursive function of the prior. It's all in the MATH.

The Recursive True Vote Model calculates the True Vote for all elections since 1968. Data input (shown below) consists of recorded and total votes cast, Final National Exit Poll shares (1988-2008); estimated vote shares (1968-1984) required to match the recorded vote, annual voter mortality and previous election voter turnout. The returning voter mix is calculated using the following methods -depending on the objective:

Method 1: the Final NEP adjusts the mix to force a match to the recorded vote. This implicitly assumes that all elections, not just the current, are fraud-free. The process of matching to the official vote required millions of Bush phantom voters in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 (turnout exceeded 100%). The official vote counts cannot be correct.

Method 2: The mix is based on prior election recorded votes.

Method 3: (True Vote): The mix is based on total votes cast in the previous and current election.

Method 4 (Recursive True Vote): Starting with the 1968 election, the model sequentially derives a feasible returning vote mix. True vote shares cast in the previous election are reduced by voter mortality and turnout in the current election and new voters are added to the mix.

Except for the 2004 election, the model used Final National Exit Poll vote share. In 2004 the Final NEP vote shares were radically changed to match the official tally. Therefore, preliminary 12:22am NEP vote shares were used to calculate the True Vote.

2010 Midterms

2010 FL and OH Governor exit polls: forced to match the recorded vote

OH, PA, WI, NJ Governor Elections: A True Vote Analysis

PA, WI, IL Senate Elections: A True Vote Analysis

House and Senate Forecasting Model

Post-election Analysis: RV/ LV Polls. Exit Polls and Recorded Votes

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Jersey

Comparative Summary, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania

Massachusetts: Coakley won the Hand Counts

2008

Proof that Obama won by much more than 9.5 million votes

A Conversation about the 2008 Election

2006 Midterms

Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model-2006

2004

Evaluation of Edison Mitofsky Election System

Nov. 4, 2004 - Democratic Underground: To Believe Bush Won…

Electoral Vote Forecasting: Monte Carlo Simulation

State Pre-election Polling Trend

Kerry Won Ohio and Florida: A True Vote Probability Analysis

2004 NEP flipped 7% of Kerry responders to Bush; 2008 NEP flipped 13% of Obama’s to McCain

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were Forced to Match the Recorded Vote

The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works

A Comparative Statistical Analysis of Oregon's mail-in Voting System

Oregon Mail-in Ballots vs. New York Lever Machines / Central Tabulators

A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud

Returning 2000 and New Voters: Proof that Kerry Won

County Votes: Florida, Ohio, New York

2000/2004 Recorded State Votes by Voting Method

Calculated Democratic Vote Shares (1968-2008)

Vote Share Discrepancies (1968-2008)

True Vote vs. Recorded Vote Margin (1968-2008)

Interactive 2004 Election Simulation

Monte Carlo 2004 Polling Simulation

2000

Unadjusted Exit Polls Indicate a Gore Landslide

Miami-Herald: Gore won Florida by 46,000 votes!

Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

Introduction: To Believe Bush Won...

1. When Decided

3. The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

4. The Final Exit Poll: Forced to Match the Vote

5. Within Precinct Discrepancy

6. New Voters

7. Party ID

8. Gender

9. Implausible Gore Voter Defection

10. Voter Turnout

11. Urban Legend

12. Location Size

15. Election Simulation Analysis

16. Exit Poll Response Optimization

17. Florida

18. Ohio

19. New York

Appendix

A. Election Model: Nov.1 Projection

B. Interactive Monte Carlo Simulation: Pre-election and Exit Polls

C. 1988-2004 Election Calculator: The True Vote

D. The 2000-2004 County Vote Database

E. Statistics and Probability: Mathematics of Polling

This refutes the myth that early exit polls were biased to Kerry. He led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote. Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million (Census) votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes.The True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents

Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents

Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents

Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents

Kerry 51.7%; Bush 47.0%

Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents

Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).

Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

The Final was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%.

The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

2008

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 83000 respondents

Obama 58.0%; McCain 40.5%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 17836 respondents

Obama 61.0%; McCain 37.3%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

Final National Exit Poll, 17836 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).

Obama 52.9%; McCain 45.8%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

The True Vote Model indicates that Obama had 58%.

Debunking Exit Poll Naysayers and Gatekeepers of the Left

DailyKos: Florida election officials are scared

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo

An Open Letter to Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos

An Open Letter to John Fund (WSJ): Election Fraud, not Voter Fraud

An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com

Debunking the Mystery Pollster’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article

A Reply to Howard Stanislevic's "Return to Innocence"

Calling Out the New York Lever Voting Shills

Nate Silver: Never mentions the Election Fraud Factor

A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2)

Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver

Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings

Deleted: A Comment on the Nate Silver / NY Times blog

2008 Tracking Poll Volatility Analysis: R2K vs. Gallup

What the Pollsters and Pundits Won’t Tell You

Avoiding the Election Fraud Factor: The New Hampshire Primary

Exit Poll Response Optimization: closing the book on the “reluctant Bush responder”

False Premise: closing the book on “Swing vs. Red-shift”

Swing vs. Red shift: 1992-2004

Swing vs. Red shift: Hoisted on its own Petard

The unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: closing the book on "False Recall"

A Conversation about False Recall

False Recall: Hoisted on its own Petard

False Recall: Exposed by the Final National Exit Poll

Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

Required Turnout: The Phantom Bush Voter Society

Truthseekers

Mathematical Modeling of Voting Systems and Elections: Theory and Applications

USCV: Ohio 2004 Precinct Exit Polls

William Rivers Pitt: Worse than 2000: Tuesday's Electoral Disaster

Keith Olbermann on 2004 Voting Irregularities

Ernest Partridge: Bush Wins Florida - NOT

Bob Fitrakis: Missing Votes in Ohio 2006 Midterms

Op Ed News interview: Bob Fitrakis on new evidence of the 2004 Ohio stolen election

Free Press: New court filing reveals how the 2004 Ohio presidential election was hacked

Michael Collins: The Urban Legend

Sheila Parks: 2011 Wisconsin Uprising: The New Florida and Ohio?

Jonathan Simon, Election Defense Alliance: Landslide Denied

Michael Keefer: Footprints of Electoral Fraud

Evidence of Fraud in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election: A Reader

The 2006 US Midterms: Another Stolen Election?

The Strange Death of American Democracy: Endgame in Ohio

Thom Hartmann: Evidence Mounts that the Vote May Have Been Hacked

Steven F. Freeman: The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy

Hypotheses for Explaining the 2004 Presidential Exit Poll Discrepancy

Prof. John Allen Paulos: Final Tallies - Exit Polls: A Statistical Mystery

Robert Koehler: Silent Scream of The Numbers

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Was the 2004 Election Stolen?

Mark Crispin Miller: None Dare Call It Stolen

Some Might Call it Treason – An Open Letter to Salon

Jim Lampley: The Biggest Story of Our Lives;

Apologies; Ostriches; Revisiting the Biggest Story

Paul Lehto: Presidential Vote Recount Rigging in Ohio

Evidence of Election Irregularities in Snohomish County, WA

Ion Sancho, Leon Cty (FL) Supervisor of Elections: The Hursti Hack

Rebecca Mercuri, Ph.D.: Electronic Voting

Victoria Collier: A Brief History of Computerized Election Fraud in America

Diane Perlman: The Silence of the Scams: Psychological Resistance to Facing Election Fraud

Interviews

JIm Fetzer- Raw Deal: 11-29-16

Jim Fetzer: Real Deal #183

Jim Fetzer: Real Deal #160

Bob Fitrakis 8-22-12 : Fight Back

Bob Fitrakis 6-9-12: Fight Back

Harvey Wasserman 6-12-12: Green Power and Wellness

Harvey Wasserman Solartopia: 3-10-16

21st centurywire mentioned my post at 1:30 mark

Susan Lindauer: http://truthfrequencyradio.com/the-covert-report-w-susan-lindauer-45286/

Chuck Ochelli: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZP16yaV-Tu4

Jack Duffy 10-31-13: JFK and Election Fraud

Brian Stetten and Ruthann Amarteifio 6-8-12: Progress Towards Democracy

Bob Fitrakis: http://talktainmentradio.com/podcasts/Fight%20Back%20%20120413.mp3

May 26, 2011: Video Speech, Palm Beach County PDA

Miscellaneous

Roper Center (UConn) U.S. Elections Data: 1976-2008

The Bell Forum (formerly Progressive Independent)

Historical Voting Machine Timeline

The 2004 Election Fraud Beginners Guide

Eye on Ohio: The Informed Citizen’s Guide to the 2004 Election

US Count Votes/National Election Data Archive

US Count Votes: History of the Debate Surrounding the 2004 Presidential Election

DrDebug: http://rigorousintuition.yuku.com/forum/viewtopic/id/845

DUers byronius and autorank: http://www.truthisall.net/

We the People Dane County Blog

Criminal investigations must look at election-fraud

Israel exit polls and the 2000-2004 U.S. elections

Probability Analysis: Latin American Leaders and Cancer

Probability: Mysterious Deaths of 125 scientists 75 bankers and 11 holistic doctors

Collage of Election Fraud and JFK graphs

JFK Assassination

JFK Calc: Suspicious Witness Deaths Spreadsheet Database

JFK Calc: Questions on the Spreadsheet Analysis

American Chronicle: Statistical Proof that Conspirators Murdered JFK

Mathematical Physicist /Astronomer Philip Stahl Reviews Reclaiming Science

Philip Stahl ("Copernicus") JFK Posts

Vincent J. Salandria: The JFK Assassination: A False Mystery Concealing State Crimes

Richard E. Sprague: The Taking of America, 1-2-3

Larry Rivera (OIC): Oswald in the Doorway Identified in Altgens 6 using Computer Graphics

M.T. Griffith- Evidence of alteration in the Zapruder film

M.T. Griffith: Faulty Evidence in the case against Oswald

JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary's 100,000 trillion to 1 Odds

JFK: London Sunday Times and the HSCA Cover-up

JFK: Sensitivity analysis of unnatural-deaths and homicides

JFK: Suspicious deaths in the Simkin JFK index

OSWALD

JFK Myths: Oswald as Doorman makes CTs look foolish; Lovelady looks like Doorman

JFK: Oswald in the Doorway: Why is the-preponderance of the evidence dismissed?

JFK: Timeline of 11/22 events from 12pm

JFK: Evidence Oswald was on the 1st floor

JFK: Oswald was “out with Bill Shelley in front”of the TSBD; Lovelady was on the steps

JFK: Judyth Baker's Pixel Analysis of the Shirt Proves Oswald is Doorman

JFK: Was Oswald Standing in the Doorway of the TSBD at 12:30?

JFK: To Believe Oswald was not Doorman you must believe...

JFK: Judyth Baker-Lee Oswald did not shoot at Walker

JFK: 20 question opinion survey on Oswald in the doorway

JFK: Fritz Notes: Oswald said he was "out front with Bill Shelley"

JFK: Did Oswald Shoot Tippit? Eyewitnesses: NO; Warren Commission: Yes

JFK: To Believe Oswald Killed JFK You Must Believe That…

JFK MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS

JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths

JFK Witnesses Called to Testify: Actual vs. Expected Unnatural-Deaths (1964-1978)

JFK Witness Death Probability Calculations: Data and Methodology

JFK Witness Spreadsheet Database: Cause of Death Statistics

JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

JFK Calc: Absolute Numerical Proof of a Conspiracy

JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

JFK Assassination: Mathematical Proof of a Grassy Knoll Shooter

JFK Assassination: Mathematical Proof that the Zapruder film was Altered

JFK: Mathematical Proof the Oswald Backyard Photos are Fakes

JFK Dealey Plaza Witnesses: A Survey Comparison

JFK: A Closer Look at the Convenient Deaths of Warren Commission Witnesses

JFK Witness Deaths: Connections by Category

JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI Officials Due to Testify at HSCA

JFK Witness Mortality: Key Statistics

JFK: A Probability Analysis of Unnatural Witness Deaths

JFK Witness Deaths: Calculating the Probabilities

JFK Witness Deaths: A Statistical Summary

JFK Assassination: Probability Analysis of Warren Commission Witness Unnatural Deaths

JFK Assassination Paradigm Shift: Deaths of Witnesses Called to Testify

JFK EVIDENCE

JFK: Evidence the Media Won't Talk About

JFK: Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation Into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses

JFK: Dealey Plaza Witnesses; John McAdams Strange List

JFK: How Many of the Following Must be True to Prove a Conspiracy?

JFK: Altering and hiding the evidence

JFK: To Believe the Zapruder film was not altered you must believe...

JFK: Roger Craig, Will Fritz and Oswald

DEBUNKING JFK DISINFORMATIONISTS

JFK: Debunking Emmy Winner Dale Myers/

JFK: Debunking Scott Aaronson's "Twenty Reasons to Believe Oswald Acted Alone"JFK: Talking JFK: Talking points from the McAdams-Reitzes Academy of Disinformation

JFK: Exposing the Media and Coincidence Theorists (CTs) in the Cover-up

JFK: Warren Commission apologists comment on the evidence

JFK: Exposing an Admitted Lone Nutter

JFK Witness Mortality: Exposing the Tactics of an Internet Troll

JFK Assassination: Will the media ever ask the right questions?

JFK: Responding to Warren Commission Apologists

JFK Witness Deaths: Why Wikipedia, HSCA, Bugliosi and Posner got it Wrong

JFK: "Parkland", Dr. Charles Crenshaw and "Executive Action"

JFK: REELZ’s Nonsensical "Smoking Gun", the Parkland Doctors and "Executive Action"

LA Times article on PBS JFK Special

JFK: Exposing John McAdams: World-class Professor of Disinformation

JFK: John McAdams Comments on Philip Stahl's review of Reclaiming Science

JFK: Debunking John McAdams “Debunking” of Jim Marrs' Witness List

JFK: Warren Commission Apologists and Trolls: Feeble Attempts to Debunk the Analysis