Pass Rushers

There are countless methods to effectively trading the stock market. During the past 20 years, I’ve tried and failed at many of them. Until I fully understood the concept of risk and the importance of being flexible, it was a continuous struggle. When risk in the market increases, the flexible mind immediately tries to reduce the risk by reducing or eliminating the position. It’s a simple concept but an important one in measuring success or failure.

I take the same approach to evaluating NFL prospects. It’s all about managing risk and determining various levels of complexity. While most talent evaluators refer exclusively to the tape, I prefer to focus on the physical metrics. The tape is obviously the first and most widely used evaluation tool, but most people can’t tell the difference in a player who is flashing versus another who isn’t. Our eyes trick us, and they do it all the time. I realize there is nothing a player will perform at the NFL Combine that will come close to what he’ll be challenged with on the field. This report isn’t an “end-all.” It’s just another tool in the evaluation process.

For the purposes of this report, I collected data from 2,407 players from the Defensive Line and ¾ Outside Linebacker positions in the 1999 to 2013 NFL Drafts. I used data from the NFL Combine. In cases where data wasn’t available from the Combine, I referred to a prospects Pro Day. I used each players Height, Weight, 40 Yard Time, 10 and 20 Yard Splits, Short Shuttle, 3-Cone Drill, Vertical Jump and Broad Jump to determine various metrics.

Players in Study	Positions	NFL Drafts
2,407	DT, DE, LB	1999 - 2013

Pro Bowl

Starteror Backup (Past / Current)

Bust or Injury

The results of the study:

Top Speed Rushers

Yr	#	Name	School	HT	WT	40	10S	SS	3C	BJ	Vert	Speed	ePwr	CtRa	PR
04	20	Kenechi Udeze	USC	6.23	281	4.75	1.62	4.69	7.78	10.42	39.0	110.40	1.13	210.56	3.27
06	1	Mario Williams	NC State	6.58	298	4.66	1.60	4.36	7.19	10.00	40.5	125.11	1.13	229.08	3.13
01	63	Derrick Burgess	Ole Miss	6.19	264	4.85	1.70	4.40	7.85	10.50	40.0	95.43	1.09	208.90	2.50
13	52	Jamie Collins	Southern Miss	6.28	250	4.59	1.58	4.32	7.10	11.58	41.5	112.65	1.09	232.14	1.27
09	13	Brian Orakpo	Texas	6.25	263	4.63	1.56	4.45	7.26	10.83	39.5	114.46	1.09	229.29	1.18
12	28	Nick Perry	USC	6.23	271	4.55	1.71	4.66	7.25	10.33	38.5	126.46	1.08	230.05	1.88
03	56	Osi Umenyiora	Troy	6.26	278	4.69	1.60	4.33	6.97	9.75	38.0	114.92	1.07	228.23	3.04
00	186	Adalius Thomas	Southern Miss	6.19	270	4.56	1.60	4.42	7.13	10.00	38.5	124.89	1.07	219.49	2.95
04	18	Will Smith	Ohio State	6.22	275	4.60	1.60	4.05	7.42	9.75	38.5	122.84	1.07	220.98	2.35
05	12	Shawne Merriman	Maryland	6.36	272	4.72	1.63	4.21	6.98	10.08	40.0	109.61	1.07	229.0	2.32
11	66	Dontay Moch	Nevada	6.11	248	4.40	1.57	4.38	7.09	10.67	42.0	132.33	1.07	234.81	2.18
09	46	Connor Barwin	Cincinnati	6.29	256	4.59	1.53	4.18	6.87	10.67	41.5	115.35	1.07	236.18	1.96
06	71	Chris Gocong	Cal Poly	6.18	263	4.70	1.61	4.08	7.05	10.25	38.5	107.79	1.06	230.04	2.46
02	2	Julius Peppers	North Carolina	6.52	283	4.71	1.63	4.22	7.15	10.42	36.5	115.01	1.06	227.50	2.38
11	70	Justin Houston	Georgia	6.22	270	4.62	1.62	4.37	6.95	10.42	36.5	118.53	1.06	228.88	2.19
05	128	Chauncey Davis	Florida State	6.14	273	4.80	1.65	4.44	7.66	9.83	37.0	102.86	1.06	221.17	1.55
04	91	Tony Hargrove	Georgia Tech	6.17	261	4.66	1.62	4.22	7.12	10.17	39.5	110.69	1.06	219.34	1.04
02	11	Dwight Freeney	Syracuse	6.07	266	4.48	1.54	4.40	6.97	9.75	37.5	132.07	1.05	233.05	2.25
06	159	Mark Anderson	Alabama	6.35	254	4.63	1.64	4.22	6.95	10.58	42.0	110.55	1.05	231.09	1.75
05	UD	Cameron Wake	Penn State	6.22	236	4.65	1.63	4.13	7.12	10.83	45.5	100.96	1.05	232.14	1.30
07	102	Brian Robison	Texas	6.26	259	4.67	1.49	4.26	6.89	10.08	40.5	108.91	1.05	224.98	1.17
07	46	Lamarr Woodley	Michigan	6.12	265	4.74	1.65	4.42	7.08	9.75	38.5	104.99	1.05	224.98	1.17
10	175	Greg Hardy	Ole Miss	6.33	281	4.82	1.68	4.65	7.25	9.75	37.0	104.12	1.05	218.15	1.65

The first group consists of players I consider to be the top Speed Rushers in the NFL. They are sorted from by the Explosive Power Metric (ePwr). By using each players height, weight, broad jump and vertical jump, it quantifies how much power and explosion a player can generate coming out of his stance. It’s arguably the most important characteristic for a pass rusher. Each one of these players generated a score greater than 1.05.

Besides the ePwr Metric, the players must have had a Production Ratio (PR) greater than 1.00. The PR is determined by adding a player’s Sacks and Tackles for Loss and dividing the result by the number of games played. It’s the only performance based metric in the study.

When I analyze the results, I want to see how each player has performed at the NFL level, and whether or not they’ve outperformed their original draft position. While Nick Perry and Jamie Collins have shown glimpses of strong play, they simply haven’t been in the league long enough to make a final determination. Chris Gocong and Chauncey Davis were both productive players for 6+ season but neither made the Pro Bowl. Kenechi Udeze injured his knee during his second season and had to retire a year later after being diagnosed with Leukemia. In my opinion, Dontay Moch has been a major disappointment. After being injured during his first two years, he recently finished his third season with the Cardinals. I still have faith that he’ll eventually deliver. The other players have all been to at least one Pro Bowl.

Top Power Rushers

Yr	#	Name	School	HT	WT	40	10S	SS	3C	BJ	Vert	ePwr	Agil	10s	PR
11	11	J.J. Watt	Wisconsin	6.44	290	4.81	1.64	4.21	6.88	10.00	37.0	1.08	1.51	3.06	2.15
11	20	Adrian Clayborn	Iowa	6.21	281	4.78	1.61	4.13	7.30	9.42	33.0	1.00	1.17	4.98	1.13
01	6	Richard Seymour	Georgia	6.52	299	4.92	1.66	4.28	7.20	9.58	32.0	1.00	1.12	2.43	1.23
06	14	Brodrick Bunkley	Florida State	6.22	306	5.01	1.71	4.16	7.33	9.42	32.5	1.07	1.11	1.69	2.62
05	28	Luis Castillo	Northwestern	6.23	305	4.79	1.67	4.24	7.28	9.33	34.5	1.10	1.08	3.84	1.04
10	10	Tyson Alualu	California	6.19	295	4.87	1.67	4.43	7.15	9.67	35.5	1.10	1.02	3.01	1.46
06	1	Mario Williams	NC State	6.58	298	4.66	1.60	4.36	7.19	10.00	40.5	1.13	1.05	5.30	3.13
05	224	Jay Ratliff	Auburn	6.30	292	4.85	1.64	4.23	7.35	9.75	33.5	1.04	1.02	3.92	1.08
10	2	Ndamukong Suh	Nebraska	6.31	307	5.03	1.69	4.44	7.21	8.75	35.5	1.07	0.95	2.49	2.25
05	20	Marcus Spears	LSU	6.33	307	5.05	1.73	2.86	4.44	9.08	31.0	1.01	0.95	0.08	1.18
09	249	Clinton McDonald	Memphis	6.13	283	4.83	1.63	4.50	7.25	10.08	38.0	1.13	0.85	4.39	1.08
10	120	Geno Atkins	Georgia	6.11	293	4.75	1.68	4.43	7.33	9.75	33.0	1.07	0.84	2.62	1.04
02	146	Rocky Bernard	Texas A&M	6.28	294	4.96	1.69	4.41	7.43	9.00	33.0	1.01	0.76	1.30	1.82
07	10	Amobi Okoye	Louisville	6.17	302	5.07	1.65	4.44	7.46	9.25	30.0	1.02	0.70	4.98	1.58
04	71	Randy Starks	Maryland	6.28	314	5.08	1.73	4.60	7.32	9.33	33.0	1.09	0.68	1.06	1.03
13	13	Sheldon Richardson	Missouri	6.20	294	4.96	1.69	4.59	7.33	9.67	32.5	1.05	0.68	1.69	1.02
09	24	Peria Jerry	Ole Miss	6.13	299	4.98	1.68	4.64	7.30	9.50	31.0	1.04	0.66	3.15	1.92
12	49	Kendall Reyes	Connecticut	6.34	299	4.82	1.64	4.53	7.43	9.42	34.5	1.06	0.64	4.44	1.50
06	73	Dusty Dvoracek	Oklahoma	6.22	306	5.01	1.75	4.37	7.62	9.17	34.0	1.08	0.61	-0.61	1.46
11	86	Allen Bailey	Miami (FL)	6.25	285	4.71	1.67	4.56	7.43	9.75	36.5	1.07	0.61	1.67	1.38
01	3	Gerard Warren	Florida	6.31	325	5.12	1.75	4.54	7.45	8.58	32.0	1.06	0.61	0.89	1.31
13	14	Star Lotulelei	Utah	6.27	314	5.09	1.72	4.53	7.47	8.75	30.0	1.01	0.60	1.68	1.25
04	35	Igor Olshansky	Oregon	6.43	315	4.96	1.75	4.41	7.61	9.17	33.5	1.07	0.58	-0.75	1.65
07	UD	Mike Devito	Maine	6.28	295	4.87	1.62	4.53	7.50	9.00	33.0	1.01	0.57	5.48	1.59
10	56	Mike Neal	Purdue	6.25	294	4.87	1.60	4.53	7.53	9.42	33.0	1.03	0.54	6.69	1.42
10	44	Lamarr Houston	Texas	6.22	305	4.84	1.68	4.48	7.61	9.50	33.5	1.09	0.51	3.31	1.71

The top Power Rushers are sorted by the Agility Metric (Agil), which is derived from the Short Shuttle and the 3-Cone. The first filter I used in the sort is the Explosive Power Metric (ePwr), and it includes players that scored 1.00 or greater. The Agility Metric was used as well. In order to make the cut, it required a score greater than 0.50. I also used the Ten Yard Speed Metric (10s). It’s a weighted average that includes the 10 yard split and a player’s height and weight. In order to qualify, it required a score greater than -1.00 . The final sort required a Production Ratio (PR) greater than 1.00.

There is a lot of success in this group. Several of these guys have been to multiple Pro Bowls. Besides Dusty Dvoracek, there haven’t been any that were complete busts. Some of the younger players (Adrian Clayborn, Sheldon Richardson, Kendall Reyes, Allen Bailey, Star Lotulelei) haven’t been in the NFL long, but I’ll be surprised if they don’t eventually reach the Pro Bowl. Clinton McDonald is an exceptional inside pass rusher for Seattle. While playing approximately 50% of the snaps in 2013, he’s had 6 sacks while grading out as one of the top players at his position in the NFL. If he saw more time with another team, I feel he’d easily reach the Pro Bowl. Mike Neal of the Packers is an enigma as a player. At 294 pounds, he was moved to OLB in the ¾ and had his most productive season. His development has taken some time, but he has enormous potential.

These type of players are rare. As a group, it averages about 2 prospects per year.

High Risk Speed Rushers

Yr	#	Name	School	HT	WT	40	10S	SS	3C	BJ	Vert	Twitch	Agil	CtRa
09	4	Aaron Curry	Wake Forest	6.13	254	4.52	1.50	4.51	7.15	10.33	37.0	1.41	0.94	231.90
13	6	Barkevious Mingo	LSU	6.35	241	4.53	1.57	4.39	6.84	10.67	37.0	1.22	1.37	232.38
08	6	Vernon Gholston	Ohio State	6.36	266	4.65	1.53	4.40	7.12	10.42	35.5	1.27	1.08	229.54
11	7	Aldon Smith	Missouri	6.35	263	4.74	1.66	4.50	7.19	9.83	34.0	1.24	0.91	222.82
01	10	Jamal Reynolds	Florida State	6.24	267	4.72	1.64	4.82	7.63	10.25	34.0	1.58	0.15	208.87
09	11	Aaron Maybin	Penn State	6.30	249	4.78	1.57	4.38	7.52	10.33	38.0	1.21	0.70	226.11
06	13	Kamerion Wimbley	Florida State	6.31	248	4.61	1.60	4.48	6.97	10.75	38.5	1.28	1.15	229.36
10	15	Jason Pierre-Paul	South Florida	6.38	270	4.71	1.65	4.67	7.18	9.75	31.5	1.42	0.75	221.15
03	15	Jerome McDougle	Miami (FL)	6.17	264	4.70	1.61	4.58	7.28	9.75	34.0	1.37	0.74	222.43
10	16	Derrick Morgan	Georgia Tech	6.30	266	4.77	1.60	4.43	7.12	9.33	34.0	1.23	1.05	224.79
12	16	Quinton Coples	North Carolina	6.47	284	4.69	1.63	4.78	7.57	9.08	31.5	1.55	0.25	218.83
07	17	Jarvis Moss	Florida	6.53	250	4.70	1.59	4.41	7.21	10.00	30.5	1.22	0.98	224.55
13	17	Jarvis Jones	Georgia	6.19	245	4.88	1.66	4.71	7.46	9.25	30.5	1.43	0.43	215.61
09	18	Robert Ayers	Tennessee	6.26	272	4.77	1.62	4.51	7.56	8.50	29.5	1.29	0.53	219.17
03	18	Calvin Pace	Wake Forest	6.33	269	4.80	1.74	4.62	7.96	9.58	33.0	1.28	0.02	214.35
02	23	Napoleon Harris	Northwestern	6.24	253	4.55	1.60	4.44	7.15	9.58	34.0	1.24	1.01	227.13
12	26	Whitney Mercilus	Illinois	6.30	2.61	4.68	1.53	4.49	7.03	9.83	32.0	1.36	1.08	227.69
08	28	Lawrence Jackson	USC	6.35	271	4.82	1.60	4.40	7.08	9.00	31.0	1.21	1.12	223.64
12	35	Courtney Upshaw	Alabama	6.13	281	4.74	1.67	4.60	7.32	9.08	27.5	1.33	0.68	217.49
11	37	Jabaal Sheard	Pittsuburgh	6.23	264	4.68	1.59	4.65	7.34	9.58	31.0	1.46	0.61	222.25
13	40	Tank Carradine	Florida State	6.34	276	4.75	1.69	4.56	7.20	9.25	33.5	1.27	0.84	220.72
99	40	Tony Bryant	Florida State	6.29	273	4.85	1.71	4.57	7.57	9.25	34.5	1.26	0.46	206.96
00	42	Cornelius Griffin	Alabama	6.26	297	4.90	1.69	4.62	7.63	9.25	31.0	1.33	0.35	205.39
10	43	Sergio Kindle	Texas	6.23	250	4.65	1.65	4.53	7.26	9.83	36.5	1.28	0.81	224.01
09	43	Everette Brown	Florida State	6.12	256	4.65	1.59	4.53	7.55	9.50	31.5	1.34	0.52	222.66
09	45	Clint Sintim	Virginia	6.22	256	4.75	1.56	4.40	7.37	9.92	34.5	1.24	0.83	225.39
11	51	Da’Quan Bowers	Clemson	6.28	280	4.92	1.76	4.57	6.98	9.17	34.5	1.21	1.05	217.07
08	52	Quintin Groves	Auburn	6.30	259	4.53	1.57	4.42	7.31	10.00	29.5	1.25	0.87	227.13
09	52	David Veikune	Hawaii	6.19	257	4.79	1.58	4.46	7.20	9.17	33.00	1.28	0.94	223.83
13	53	Margus Hunt	SMU	6.68	277	4.53	1.63	4.51	7.07	10.08	34.5	1.28	1.02	227.32
10	54	Carlos Dunlap	Florida	6.47	278	4.68	1.61	4.61	7.21	9.25	31.5	1.40	0.78	223.11
07	57	Victor Abiamiri	Notre Dame	6.35	267	4.80	1.56	4.39	7.54	10.33	34.0	1.23	0.67	223.56
09	57	Paul Kruger	Utah	6.35	263	4.83	1.60	4.47	7.52	9.00	32.5	1.27	0.61	220.50
07	58	Ikaika Alama-Francis	Hawaii	6.42	280	4.85	1.73	4.62	7.31	9.50	35.0	1.29	0.67	217.14
12	59	Vinny Curry	Marshall	6.26	266	4.69	1.58	4.40	6.90	9.25	35.0	1.22	1.30	227.77
03	59	Alonzo Jackson	Florida State	6.33	266	4.86	1.69	4.50	7.69	9.50	37.0	1.21	0.41	218.82
07	62	Dan Bazuin	Central Michigan	6.23	266	4.77	1.59	4.75	7.09	9.08	31.0	1.56	0.76	220.83
06	63	Darryl Tapp	Virginia Tech	6.13	252	4.83	1.66	4.48	7.32	9.08	33.0	1.22	0.80	219.94
07	65	Quentin Moses	Georgia	6.44	261	4.82	1.59	4.53	7.38	9.58	32.0	1.34	0.69	221.34
03	67	Antwan Peek	Cincinnati	6.21	246	4.67	1.54	4.35	7.07	10.42	37.0	1.21	1.18	229.64
09	70	Michael Johnson	Georgia Tech	6.58	266	4.69	1.54	4.37	7.42	10.67	38.5	1.23	0.81	229.05
09	71	Matt Shaughnessy	Wisconsin	6.42	266	4.86	1.69	4.88	7.68	9.33	30.5	1.59	0.04	213.71
12	72	Olivier Vernon	Miami (FL)	6.18	261	4.73	1.63	4.50	7.39	10.17	34.5	1.27	0.71	222.28
08	72	Chris Ellis	Virginia Tech	6.35	263	4.71	1.56	4.65	7.64	9.08	27.0	1.49	0.31	219.44
10	72	Alex Carrington	Arkansas State	6.43	285	4.92	1.69	4.81	7.64	10.17	33.0	1.52	0.15	213.83
08	78	Shawn Crable	Michigan	6.39	245	4.61	1.56	4.55	7.29	9.25	28.0	1.39	0.76	224.58
13	88	Corey Lemonier	Auburn	6.28	255	4.56	1.56	4.40	7.14	9.92	33.0	1.24	1.06	229.31
08	88	Bruce Davis	UCLA	6.21	252	4.78	1.62	4.47	7.34	9.08	29.0	1.25	0.79	220.70
03	89	Andrew Williams	Miami (FL)	6.19	263	4.70	1.64	4.47	7.53	9.42	32.0	1.23	0.60	220.87
08	92	Cliff Avril	Purdue	6.23	253	4.51	1.50	4.51	6.90	9.75	32.5	1.41	1.19	232.13
13	95	Sam Montgomery	LSU	6.27	262	4.78	1.61	4.51	7.18	9.50	34.5	1.30	0.91	223.32
04	97	Reggie Torbor	Auburn	6.18	254	4.65	1.62	4.46	7.48	10.00	34.0	1.24	0.66	223.50
01	103	Karon Riley	Minnesota	6.19	264	4.75	1.61	4.46	7.06	9.58	36.0	1.25	1.08	215.48
12	103	Frank Alexander	Oklahoma	6.31	270	4.80	1.69	4.59	7.58	9.75	34.5	1.30	0.43	218.53
08	116	Kenny Iwebema	Iowa	6.33	274	4.91	1.59	4.75	7.62	9.08	29.0	1.56	0.23	216.00
09	117	Kyle Moore	USC	6.42	272	4.81	1.62	4.47	7.40	8.75	30.5	1.25	0.73	220.16
07	120	Baraka Atkins	Miami (FL)	6.37	271	4.69	1.56	4.67	7.02	9.33	33.0	1.51	0.91	215.99
09	120	Brandon Williams	Texas Tech	6.20	261	4.96	1.66	4.49	7.23	9.33	33.0	1.23	0.88	218.48
09	125	Lawrence Sidbury	Richmond	6.19	266	4.53	1.53	4.43	7.46	10.00	35.0	1.30	0.71	230.06

This is my favorite section. The only filter I used was the Twitch Metric (Twitch). It measures change-of-direction and the ability to explode out of a football stance. It’s arguably the most important characteristic in the success or failure of a pass rusher. In order to be considered “High Risk,” it includes players that scored greater than 1.20. The table is sorted by draft position. Since there are so many players included, I only included one’s that were selected in the top 125 picks of any respective draft. The Twitch Metric is remarkably efficient at identifying high round busts and late round value.

Instead of going over the results individually, please take a moment to look over it. With the exception of a handful of players (Jason Pierre-Paul, Aldon Smith, Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, Cliff Avril), it’s littered with guys that never performed to expectations. A few players (Quinton Coples, Jarvis Jones, Corey Lemonier) have all played less than 2 seasons, but I’ll be surprised if they aren’t eventually labeled as busts.

If I was a GM, this is a list that I would pay close attention to on a yearly basis. There are obviously some high performers, but there are far more busts. It comes down to risk and recognizing value, and how much you’re willing to take.