The Brexit Trilemma – forced choice between three options
John Rentoul
House of Commons: 650 MPs minus 7 Sinn Fein, 4 Speaker/deputies, Newport West (vacant) = 638
No-deal Brexit: 120 – Con 107 (118 who voted against PM’s deal on 15 January minus 11 referendumers, below), DUP 10, Labour 3 (Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins,¹ Graham Stringer)
PM’s deal: 236 – Con 198, Stephen Lloyd (ex-Lib Dem), Sylvia Hermon (independent N Ireland unionist), Labour 4 (Ian Austin,¹ Kevin Barron, Frank Field,¹ John Mann), who voted for it on 15 January; plus a possible 32 more Labour MPs (who oppose a referendum or who voted against the Grieve, Cooper, Reeves or Spelman amendments, or for the Brady amendment on 29 January, or did not vote): Tracy Brabin,² Ronnie Campbell, Sarah Champion, Julie Cooper, Rosie Cooper, Jon Cruddas, Judith Cummins,² Gloria De Piero,² Jim Fitzpatrick, Caroline Flint, Yvonne Fovargue,² Roger Godsiff,³ Stephen Hepburn, Mike Hill,⁴ Kevan Jones,⁵ Mike Kane,² Stephen Kinnock, Emma Lewell-Buck,² Ivan Lewis,¹ Jim McMahon, Grahame Morris,⁴ Lisa Nandy, Melanie Onn, Jo Platt, Lucy Powell,⁵ Dennis Skinner, Ruth Smeeth, Gareth Snell, Laura Smith, John Spellar, Derek Twigg, Chris Williamson¹ (who speaks for several of them when he insists he won’t support the PM’s deal either)⁵
Referendum (=Remain): 282 – the rest, including the rest of Labour MPs,⁶ whose policy is now “in favour of a public vote to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit”, and Con or ex-Con 11: Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Damian Collins, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Andrew Mitchell, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston
Narrowing to a forced choice between two options
Theresa May accepted on 26 February that the House of Commons would decide the next step if it failed to approve a deal by 12 March. A large majority of MPs would vote against no-deal Brexit at this point, in which case the Commons would then vote on seeking an extension to the Article 50 deadline.
MPs would thus be facing a forced choice between the PM’s deal and delaying Brexit (which may or may not lead to a new referendum).
The Labour leadership would presumably continue to vote against the PM’s deal, but let us assume that 33 of the 39 Labour and ex-Labour MPs listed above under “no-deal Brexit” or “PM’s deal” vote for it (and one abstains).
It was established on 15 January that MPs tend not to abstain in a vote on a Brexit treaty. Paul Flynn, the Labour MP who was ill, was the only non-voter in the vote on the Brexit deal. So let us assume there are only 4 abstentions: 3 no-deal Brexit Tory MPs and, for illustrative purposes, Chris Williamson.
The only way I can see a revised deal gaining a majority would be if the DUP support it. If they do, and the Tory no-dealers are reduced to 30 (and 3 abstentions), the result could be a tie:
Forced choice between two options⁷
PM’s deal 315
Delay Brexit 315
¹Suspended/resigned Labour whip.
²Brabin, Cummins, De Piero, Fovargue, Kane and Lewell-Buck did not vote on the Cooper and Reeves amendments on 29 January.
³Godsiff supports a referendum, but voted against Grieve, Cooper and Reeves amendments and for Brady amendment on 29 January.
⁴Hill and Morris did not vote on the Reeves and Spelman amendments on 29 January.
⁵Jones, Powell and Williamson voted with the Labour whip on 29 January, but have expressed opposition to a new referendum. Not included here are David Drew, Angela Rayner and Jonathan Reynolds, frontbenchers who have also expressed opposition. John Cryer had doubts but now supports the Peter Kyle/Phil Wilson amendment to approve PM’s deal subject to a referendum.
⁶Including Fiona Onasanya, released from jail on 25 February: it is not known if the terms of her parole allow her to vote.
⁷Deducting 2 tellers from each side of the vote.
11 March 2019
16 March section
Narrowing to a forced choice between two options
Theresa May accepted on 26 February that the House of Commons would decide the next step if it failed to approve a deal by 12 March, which it did. It voted against a no-deal Brexit on 13 March, and on 14 March voted to “note” that, if it failed to approve a deal by 20 March, the EU Council might require a long extension to the Article 50 deadline.
Thus MPs now face a forced choice between the PM’s deal (which would require a short delay to Brexit to pass the implementation bill) and a long delay to Brexit (which may or may not lead to a new referendum).
It was established on 15 January and 12 March that MPs tend not to abstain in a vote on a Brexit treaty. Paul Flynn, the Labour MP who was ill, was the only non-voter on 15 January and Douglas Ross, Con, whose wife was having a baby, was the only one on 12 March.
The Labour leadership would continue to vote against the PM’s deal, but let us assume that 18 more Labour and ex-Labour MPs vote for it – that is, half of the 36 of those listed above under “no-deal Brexit” (3) or “PM’s deal” (33 who have not already voted for it).
Then a revised deal could gain a majority only if the DUP support it and the number of Tory no-dealers is reduced from 69 to 22, in which case it would win by 2:
Forced choice between two options⁹
PM’s deal 318
Delay Brexit 316
¹Suspended/resigned Labour whip.
²Brabin, Cummins, De Piero, Fovargue, Kane and Lewell-Buck did not vote on the Cooper and Reeves amendments on 29 January.
³Godsiff supports a referendum, but voted against Grieve, Cooper and Reeves amendments and for Brady amendment on 29 January.
⁴Hill and Morris did not vote on the Reeves and Spelman amendments on 29 January.
⁵Jones and Powell voted with the Labour whip on 29 January, but have expressed opposition to a new referendum. Not included here are David Drew, Angela Rayner and Jonathan Reynolds, frontbenchers who have also expressed opposition, and Chris Williamson.¹ Nor John Grogan, who supports a referendum but who says he will support the PM’s deal if it’s a choice between that and no deal. John Cryer had doubts but now supports the Peter Kyle/Phil Wilson plan to approve PM’s deal subject to a referendum.
⁶Including Douglas Ross, Con, who did not vote on 12 March because his wife was having a baby.
⁷Voted against a referendum on 14 March, including the five frontbenchers who resigned.
⁸Not including Damian Collins, who has called for a referendum but is more of a no-dealer.
⁹Deducting 2 tellers from each side of the vote.
16 March 2019