Emails, Mark. J. Perry, scholar, The American Enterprise Institute, professor of Finance and Business Economics, School of Management, University of Michigan-Flint, Jan. 15, 2015

4:33 p.m.

Attached is a spreadsheet showing that since Dec. 2007, Texas has gained 1,410,400 jobs through Nov. 2014 while the US-TEXAS has lost 352,440 jobs.

I am using “Total Employment” and not just payroll employment, which could explain why the BLS person’s conclusion is different. Total employment includes all jobs, including self-employed, and is a more comprehensive measure of employment that just payrolls. Total employment is what is used to calculate the unemployment rate.

Here are the BLS data for Texas employment: http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.tx.htm

And here are the data for US employment: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV

Mark

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Mark J. Perry, Ph.D.

Scholar at The American Enterprise Institute

Professor of Finance and Business Economics

School of Management, University of Michigan-Flint

4:43 p.m.

One issue is that the BLS revises its jobs numbers every month, and it made an upward revision of 44,000 to US employment for November in its last report (147,287 was revised up to 147,331). Therefore, I originally reported a loss of US-TEX of almost 400,000 (396,400) for November.  Now with the upward revision that comes down to a loss of 352,400 jobs from Dec. 2007 to Nov. 2014 for US-TEX. Gov. Perry may have been using the -400,000 number, which was accurate before the subsequent revision……

Mark

8:11 p.m.

Another clarification is that those numbers below are in 1,000s, and it is the case that BLS revised November employment from 147,287,000 to 147,331,000.  Before the revision, the employment deficit for US Minus TEXAS was -396,440 between Dec. 2007 and Nov. 2014, and those were probably the numbers Gov. Perry was using (rounding the deficit to -400,000)….  After the revision, the net job deficit for US Minus Texas was -352,440.

8:39 p.m.

Here are the payroll employment numbers for Texas, US and US – TEX.

From Dec. 2007 to Nov. 2014, Texas gained 1,213,000 payroll jobs, the US-TEX gained 532,000 payroll jobs, for a total payroll gain of 1,745,000 jobs. By that measure Texas gained more than 2 payroll jobs for every job gained in the other 49 states + DC.

I’m not sure why your BLS contact didn’t have those numbers….  But using the more comprehensive “Total Employment” or “Household Data” that the BLS uses to calculate the unemployment rate, the numbers Perry cited are correct and accurate….