EXCESS DEATHS AND EXPECTED DEATHS
Written on December 25, 2020 and based on Statistics at that time.
The purpose of this document is to discuss in detail how statistical fraud is used to create the illusion of a pandemic. The details of this can be found in the mainstream media’s use of the phrases "Excess Deaths" and “Expected Number of Deaths.”
My intention is to show how and why these are misleading phrases and how they are used to create non-existent COVID deaths out of thin air.
Let’s start with the term “Excess Deaths.” If we understand how this statistic is calculated, then we will come to understand that the term "Excess Deaths" is a meaningless phrase. It doesn't tell us anything unless we also look at "cause of death" and "rate of growth".
To understand why, we can look at this chart titled U.S. Death Rate 1950-2020 from the UN, which can be found here.
The 8.88 for 2020 are deaths per 1,000 people. The “Growth Rate” is the percentage increase in deaths in a given year over the previous year. Note that the percentage increase in 2020 over 2019 is 1.12%, exactly the same as the percent increase of 2019 over 2018. The rate of growth spiked in 2014, and since that time the average rate of growth in the death rate each year is 1.22%.
In simpler terms, the 2020 death rate is .10% less than the average of the last seven years.
Another thing worth noting is that the concept of 2020 having a "Spike in Excess Deaths" is also misleading for another reason. It doesn't tell us anything about the specific causes of those deaths. We just "assume" it's pandemic related, because that’s what the mainstream media tells us.
But as you can see in this table, there was also a spike in "Excess Deaths" in 2009. Up until that time the death rate had been in decline or was steadily negative. What happened in 2008/2009 to cause such a spike? There was certainly no pandemic other than normal cold and flu season.
We can speculate - maybe it had something to do with the financial collapse, and millions of people losing their homes and all the financial fallout that came from that?
But this is purely speculation. Just as it is speculation to assume that a rise in "excess deaths" in 2020 is because of the pandemic. The data tell an entirely different story.
If we understand how the CDC is classifying deaths, then we will also understand that there is no Pandemic. The CDC is simply committing statistical fraud and most people just don't want to consider it. This is because most people are cowards and they just can't bear to consider that the Government might be lying to them. Doing so would require dismantling one’s control over how they perceive the world around them. That's rooted in ego. But let’s continue to see how this statistical fraud is conducted.
It is actually very easy to understand. Anyone can verify this for themselves by looking at TABLE 3 on the CDC's website.. You can view this data here.
The CDC labels the Comorbidity table (Table 3) as “Number of COVID-19 deaths with contributing conditions” It should be noted that they changed the title of the table sometime within the last 6 months. The table used to be called "Conditions contributing to deaths involving COVID19". They have updated it to make it less ambiguous but their new title is still deceptive.
In this table, we can find the number of people who died with at least one other comorbidity.
Note that every year we have thousands upon thousands of people who die from things like respiratory arrest, cardiac arrest, renal failure, heart attack, sepsis, influenza, etc..
Every year prior to 2020, we classified those people as having died from X. In 2020, the CDC now reclassifies those deaths that happen every year by saying that they “died from COVID.”
As we can see from the Table, the vast, vast majority of "COVID19 deaths" are elderly people who would have died anyways, as they do every year, from a number of different causes. Respiratory or otherwise.
This year we say that they died from "COVID RELATED COMPLICATIONS" or that they have a "COVID RELATED ILLNESS" – or as they deceptively labeled the Co-Morbidity Table "conditions contributing to deaths involving COVID19"
Involving? Okay. Well obviously this was deceptive, so they’ve since changed the Table’s title to “Number of COVID-19 deaths with contributing conditions”. But this is still misleading because how can one determine if the underlying condition contributed to the death or was the main cause of the death? In reality, these people died from their comorbidity, like they do every year and happened to have a meaningless positive PCR test.
This is demonstrable fraud and it's easy enough for anyone to understand. All it takes is courage and integrity.
Here is another way to look at it:
If you have 100 people living in a small town and 1 of them dies...
and then the next year, 100 more people move to the town, making the town's new total population 200, and then a total of 2 or 3 people die...is it fair to say that the "Excess Deaths" Doubled or Tripled from one year to the next? Technically it's true. But it doesn't tell us much.
Let's say (hypothetically) you had 300k more suicides in 2020 than the previous year. Is it fair to point to "excess deaths" as proof that the 'pandemic' is raging out of control? Of course not. 'Excess deaths' in this example has nothing to do with the 'pandemic'.
It should be noted that on May 4, 2009, the WHO changed their definition of 'pandemic' as well as changing the criteria of calling something a pandemic, as they are the only one that can “call it”.
The WHO's definition of pandemic until May 4, 2009 was:
“An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus appears against which the human population has no immunity, resulting in several, simultaneous epidemics worldwide with enormous numbers of deaths and illness.”
On May 4, 2009 they simply changed the word “enormous” to the word “elevated”.
Now, you must try really hard to find that information on the internet, since they have done their best to hide it. They even changed their own previous definition from years ago on their website (sneaky), but you can find it quoted in a number of websites and mainly medical sites from 2009 and even earlier. Most of this is really just sleight-of-hand tricks and statistical fraud.
So now that we understand that any alleged increase in death numbers doesn’t tell us anything about what caused those deaths, we can look at other reasons as to why there are more deaths each year than the previous year.
The main reason has to do with the aging population of the United States. As more and more Baby Boomers reach their 80s and 90s, more and more of them will die. Right? They will die from a multitude of different causes, including "Old Age" – even just this one natural thing, which has nothing to do with a pandemic, could potentially result in more "excess deaths" from one year to the next. Right?
This alone could account for some level of "excess deaths" as there are simply more and more Baby Boomers reaching old age and ... dying.
.
Maybe the CDC will ask us to believe that "Old Age" is now a "symptom" of COVID19 and that these people died from "COVID related illnesses" - quite absurd if you really think about it.
From the U.S. Census Bureau, published in October, 2017:
The aging population of the United States is propelling the nation toward a milestone: A historic increase in the number of deaths every year. Deaths are projected to reach more than 3.6 million in 2037, 1 million more than in 2015. As the nation’s baby boom cohort ages (the youngest are 53 this year), the number and percentage of people who die will increase dramatically every year, peaking in 2055 before leveling off gradually.
Next, let’s look at the phrase "Expected Number of Deaths" and deconstruct it.
It's easy to be deceived when you just look at the CDC's "dashboards" or read articles from the New York Times and don't actually dig into the data, in more detail.
For this discussion, I will use this PROPAGANDA piece from the New York Times as an example. In this article, the New York Times explains more BS about "excess deaths".
Here is the problem and I will explain it in detail.
From the VERY FIRST PARAGRAPH of the New York Times article, we read the following:
"Deaths in every state of the country are higher than they would be in a normal year, according to an analysis of estimates from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention."
So how do they define what a "normal year" is and how does the CDC conduct this "analysis”? Most people don't bother to click on the link because they don't understand that the New York Times is tabloid trash and the CDC's "dashboards" don't tell the full story. So they just take the NY Times for their word.
But if we want to REALLY understand, then we can dig a little deeper. If you click on the link, we will arrive at this page: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
On this page, we can read the following:
“Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.”
The key phrase here is “expected number of deaths”.
So, how does the CDC arrive at this number of “expected number of deaths” for 2020?
The CDC estimated a number for total deaths it "expects" in 2020. The CDC then compares the actual reported number of deaths in 2020 to the number of deaths that the CDC "estimated to be expected in 2020". Deaths above the "expected deaths" number are then "suggested" to have been "potentially" caused by COVID-19. Fraud.
So again - the pertinent question to ask is - how does the CDC arrive at this number of "expected deaths" ???
THAT'S WHERE YOU'LL FIND THE DECEPTION.
On its main COVID-19 data page, the CDC labels the comparison between the reported number of deaths in 2020 and the "expected number of deaths in 2020" as the "percent of expected deaths." To estimate the expected deaths in 2020, the CDC is using the AVERAGE total deaths (also known as the mean of total deaths) from 2017, 2018, and 2019. The CDC's data for 1999–2018 can be found here:
Anyone can download the data and verify for themselves. Or - you can just trust that the New York Times is telling you the truth, without doing your own research.
But if you do your own research, then you will see the problems with the New York Times propaganda. Here is the problem:
The CDC is misrepresenting "excess deaths" in 2020 by using a misleading and inappropriate method to estimate “expected deaths”.
If you look at the total deaths in 2017, 2018, and 2019 and then compare it to the previous years, you will see that they are reporting that the total deaths increased in large amounts from 2009 to 2016 and then smaller amounts from 2017 - 2019.
The most obvious falsification or error, is the CDC's method of estimating expected deaths in 2020 by averaging the total deaths from 2017, 2018, and 2019. Notice how variable the total yearly deaths are from 2009 to 2019.
Here's the Math, which shows the variance in "Total Deaths", from one year to the next:
2009 - 2010 - 31,272
2010 - 2011 - 47,024
2011 - 2012 - 27,814
2012 - 2103 - 53,714
2013 - 2014 - 29,425
2014 - 2015 - 86,212
2015 - 2016 - 31,618
2016 - 2017 - 69,261
2017 - 2018 - 25,702
2018 - 2019 - 6,591
As we can clearly see from THE CDCs OWN DATA, the numbers for 2017 - 2019 are the smallest.
So, of course if they take only the smallest numbers and then average them and use this data to calculate "expected number of deaths" for 2020, then the number will be small. They can then use this small number to make their "Excess Deaths" Claim more convincing. But it's nonsense.
Wouldn't it be MORE honest and appropriate to take the averages of all the years to arrive at the 2020 "expected deaths" number?
Isn't it true that the very smallest (by a landslide) number of 6,591 for 2018-2019 would skew the averages down significantly?
Isn't it also true that by then ONLY using these last 2 numbers to calculate "expected deaths" which then lays the foundation for "excess deaths", the CDC is making a misleading claim about excess deaths?
The CDC's method of averaging the total deaths for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 to calculate “expected deaths” in 2020 is inappropriate and misleading (also known as deception), because of the significant variation of the yearly total deaths. Why not include previous years? Why just the averages of the last 3, which conveniently had the smallest increases?
By using averages, the CDC is using an inappropriate statistical method in an attempt to make the results ("excess deaths" and COVID-19 deaths in 2020) look more convincing.
This potential data manipulation exposes the problem with these assumptions and also exposes the New York Times. Here’s how:
Using the CDC's numbers provided, the average “total deaths” number for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 is 2,832,835.
This means that the CDC “expected” 2,832,835 deaths in 2020 — and it means that the CDC expected the total deaths to actually DECREASE in 2020 compared to previous years, which is impossible, given that more people die every year as the population ages.
The CDC's method results in a lower number of “expected deaths” in 2020 than what the CDC reports for both 2018 and 2019. By using this inappropriate method and reporting a lower number of “expected deaths” for 2020, the CDC can then arrive at a higher “excess death” number.
The total deaths in the U.S. have reportedly NOT DECREASED COMPARED TO A PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 2009.
But the CDC “estimates” that total deaths would decrease in 2020? Really????
According to the CDC's data, the deaths SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED several years up until 2017, 2018, and 2019, when the CDC reports that total deaths suddenly see a much smaller increase. Do you understand how inappropriate this method is to “estimate” “expected deaths” for 2020????
Anyone can look at the data and verify for themselves that the CDC is using an inappropriate method to estimate “expected deaths” in 2020. You don't need to be a mathematician, a statistician or a scientist.
From 2010 to 2016, the number of deaths INCREASED by 275,813. Using an arbitrary method, the CDC estimates deaths in the U.S. to increase by 275,000 every six years or so. By using this type of method to “estimate” - we should have 3,000,000 expected deaths in 2020 — which would be 170,000 MORE than the CDC's current estimate of expected deaths in 2020.
If a more accurate estimate of expected deaths in 2020 is around 3,000,000, then there may not have been a large “excess” in deaths in 2020, at all. It all depends on what method you use to calculate "expected deaths". In this example, I’ve chosen an arbitrary method, just like the CDC has…
Are you understanding now, why this is deceptive?
So, maybe we can give the CDC the benefit of the doubt. Maybe it’s not deliberate deception and instead, just an “honest mistake” or “data error”.
Regardless, the method that they use to calculate “expected deaths” is inappropriate and leads to a LOWER EXPECTED DEATH NUMBER FOR 2020 AND A HIGHER NUMBER OF DEATHS THAT CAN BE (WRONGLY) ATTRIBUTED TO COVID19.
The CDC’s method of calculating “expected deaths” is similar to the type of error (or misconduct) known as “Trimming”, which you can read about here.
THE EXPECTED DEATHS CALCULATION METHOD appears to manipulate the data, to make the results (excess deaths attributed to COVID) look more convincing. But we already understand that there are other explanations for potential “excess deaths” - such as age of population (see U.S. Census Bureau article above).
By manipulating the data for “Expected Deaths” to achieve a lower number, the CDC can then produce a higher “excess deaths” number for 2020. They can then declare an incorrect or misleading claim, that the wrongly calculated “excess deaths” are caused by “COVID-19”.
Nonsense and absurd. The “excess deaths” number is based on the “expected deaths” number for 2020. The “Expected Deaths” number that they arrived at is based on an inappropriate method of calculation, as I’ve outlined above.
"Excess Deaths" is 100% arbitrary without first understanding that this number relies upon another number called "expected deaths", and also understanding the (inappropriate and misleading) methods that were used to arrive at that "expected deaths" number. So, what happens if we calculate the "expected deaths" for previous years, say 2019, 2018, 2017, using the method that the CDC is using?
Using the CDC’s misleading method:
For 2019:
Expected Deaths - 2,826,354
Actual Deaths - 2,845,796
For 2018:
Expected Deaths - 2,778,875
Actual Deaths - 2,839,205
For 2017:
Expected Deaths - 2,728,439
Actual Deaths - 2,813,503
So, deaths above “expectation”, using the CDC’s misleading method – is about 19K in 2019, 61K in 2018, and 85K in 2017. By using this misleading method, the CDC has artificially inflated the number of “excess deaths” based on a misleading “expected deaths” number and then used their minions in the media to imprint this number in the psyche of millions of people, simply by sleight-of-hand trickery.
COVID19 isn’t caused by a virus or a bioweapon or graphene oxide or nanobots or whatever outrageous conspiracy theory they throw at us next. It’s mostly just statistical fraud and these people are LIARS.