Why do we fail to see wars coming, when the paths to them are so obvious in hindsight?

This paper is on the Monopoly of Violence, why it is essential to grant governments sovereignty to monopolize violence to coerce compliance with law to mitigate the unrestrained violence of natural law; and why it is essential to limit governments to restrain the unlimited lust of men to accumulate. Paths to war build when any of these sources of violence are out of balance.

As slow moving tectonic plates build stress of long periods of time, the paths to war build over long periods of time. Wars and earthquakes are easy to forecast because they build so slowly. What is hard to forecast is the exact moment the accumulated stress snaps into destruction.

Paths to war are easy to see in hindsight and foresight. If we act with foresight, we can preempt war. My hope is that in 2017 the unconstitutional Federal highway monopoly will be broken and we will stop rebuilding the two known paths for Americans to wage domestica war against Americans.

The Paths to War

Eight Presidents correctly declared the dependence on foreign oil a grave threat to national security. Yet in that same period, Federal highway/energy policies resulted in oil-wars since 1991, oil-dollar funded terrorist attacks on America, Climate Change, and $20 trillion in Federal debt. Federal policies are re-creating paths to war:

A West Point education, experience in the Infantry, nearly a half century of studying the paths to wars, and a 19-year effort to deploy solar-powered mobility networks resulted in an awakening into the nature of the Federal government that was common among America’s founders. Their documents are used to explain the nature of the Federal government as a Monopoly of Violence.

In 1998, I began the effort to build JPods solar-powered mobility networks so that urban mobility can be powered within an energy self-reliant solar budget. This technology is covered in other papers, so this paper is dedicated to the barriers that block such innovation:

Liberty is society’s tolerance for disruptive minorities. There is no minority as tiny and disruptive as commercial innovators. I intend to create and destroy millions of jobs by building the Physical Internet®, doing so by replacing foreign oil with solar-powered mobility networks which operate at 1/10th the cost. How this Physical Internet® will be built is in another paper. Just as the Internet was delayed by the unconstitutional Federal communications monopoly for most of a century, the unconstitutional Federal transportation monopoly protects the efficiency of the Model-T from free market competition for more than a century.

The fixed behavior of government monopolies prevents free market adaptations to shifting circumstances. Populations have grown. US Peak Oil was in 1970. National debt has increased in tandem with oil imports since Peak Oil. Oil-wars have been required since 1991 to secure access to foreign oil. Buying foreign oil as funded terrorism. Pollution from Federally mandated highways is tilting the balance of nature into Climate Change.

As with Federal support for slavery, Federal support for dependence on foreign oil to power its commercial monopoly is recreating paths to domestic war.

Natural Law

Who eats lunch versus who is lunch illustrates the violent nature of life. Natural Law is unrestrained violence; eat or be eaten.

Why We Create Community

To collaborate in harvesting energy, we form communities.

Why We Create Governments

To limit violence within our communities, we form governments. We do not want gangs, criminals, or powerful people to confiscate our property, imprison us, or kill us.  So, we grant government sovereignty - the Monopoly of Violence. 

To limit government violence in America, we Divided Sovereignty between different types of governments and set them against each other to be checked and balanced. “Ambition must be made to counteract ambition,” Madison, Federalist #51. 

The Path to War by about 2019

Federal policies subordinating the survival of America to a 48% dependence on foreign oil rebuilds known paths to domestic wars in America.

Life requires energy. Debt buying foreign oil is finite. Life powered by debt buying foreign oil is terminal, by about 2019. As nearly occurred in September 2008, debt will at some point fail to buy foreign oil. When that happens, the oil-powered economy will experience at least a 48% decrease in access to oil, an Oil Famine. As explained in another paper, Syria’s Peak Oil in 1992 resulted in the 2010 collapse into Oil Famine. US Peak Oil was in 1970.

Secretary of Defense Mattis published this warning as Commanding General of the Joint Forces Command in 2010 (fracking delayed the risks by 3 to 8 years):

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."

"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest."

"Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity."

"The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields."

The Choice

Similar to the Tyranny of the Majority that supported Federal support for slavery, there is currently a Tyranny of the Majority in America willing to borrow against the future labor of children to buy foreign oil and wage oil-wars.

We can choose one of two options:

  1. Allow the Federal Governing to protect their monopoly that binds our survival to foreign oil.

Eight Presidents warned against this choice. Only Nixon did anything about it. He support the building of the Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) network in Morgantown, WV.

  1. Exercise the self-discipline to become energy self-reliant. 

We will enforce the “post Roads” restriction of the Constitution, restoring liberty to innovate transport infrastructure. About 50 million jobs/year will be created in building solar-powered mobility networks, each 10 times more efficient and have 6 times better Net Energy. Again, Morgantown’s PRT network is an example of energy self-reliant urban mobility networks.

Governments Coerce Compliance

The Federal government is not run by angels; it is run by men, seeking their self-interest:

Federalist #51 (Madison): If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions.

Divided Sovereignty of Federalism, divided powers between branches of the Federal government, and the written Constitution are essential “precautions.” The “post Roads” and “ports” restrictions specifically forbid the Federal governing from taxing for infrastructure. The crisis we will face in the next decade is a direct consequence of a century of Constitutional violations. The paths to war build slowly.

On August 1, 1918, by Executive Order, President Wilson monopolized communications and socialized power and transport infrastructures as “natural monopolies” in the mobilization to fight World War I.  For nearly a century, the unconstitutional Federal communications monopoly mandated rotary telephones. After liberty was restored in 1982, millions of jobs were created, delivering better services at lower costs. The barrier to innovation was not technology.

The first car phone was in 1924. In 1926, Nikola Tesla observed:

"When wireless is perfectly applied the whole earth will be converted into a huge brain, which in fact it is, all things being particles of a real and rhythmic whole. We shall be able to communicate with one another instantly, irrespective of distance. Not only this, but through television and telephony we shall see and hear one another as perfectly as though we were face to face, despite intervening distances of thousands of miles; and the instruments through which we shall be able to do his will be amazingly simple compared with our present telephone. A man will be able to carry one in his vest pocket.”

In 1941, Hedy Lamarr filed the patent incorporated in WiFi and BlueTooth. With Rural Electrification Administration in 1936, President Roosevelt wiped out the entire distributed energy industry, which caused 600,000 windmills to be abandoned and mandated the burning of coal. However, as Thomas Edison noted in 1910, the fact that we can power our lives within a solar budget was already well understood:

"Sunshine is spread out thin and so is electricity. Perhaps they are the same, Sunshine is a form of energy, and the winds and the tides are manifestations of energy.”

“Do we use them? Oh, no! We burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel. We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property.

“There must surely come a time when heat and power will be stored in unlimited quantities in every community, all gathered by natural forces. Electricity ought to be as cheap as oxygen...."

Federal highway policies bankrupt and block from deployment radically cleaner, faster, safer, and more affordable mobility networks:

It is a Milgram Experiment example. The governing are indifferent to the harm caused by their decision to mandate highways when cleaner, safer, faster, and more affordable mobility networks are well understood. It is the nature of those controlling a Monopoly of Violence to accept violence as a normal feature. Theme parks would never survive with the same attitude.

We need the police powers of government to coerce compliance with law. When the Governing exempt themselves from being policed, the Consent of the Governed is violated.


The Boston Tea Party was an action against a government transportation monopoly. The Federal transportation monopoly has done far more harm than the King’s.

Wanting cheaper gas prices today regardless of the harm to their children tomorrow, a Tyranny of the Majority supports Federal violation the Constitution’s “post Roads” restriction. They mortgage the liberty of each American child for $63,000 without consent to support consumption of foreign oil. They pollute, tilting the balance of nature into Climate Change. They fund terrorism with oil-dollars.

The Declaration of Independence explains why this is a cause for war.

Declaration of Independence

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.”

The years of war and instability between 1754 and 1791 resulted in powerful insights into the nature of government and why the Federal government is forbidden to tax for infrastructure beyond what is required to defend free speech.  

Common Sense, a novel by Thomas Paine, defined and rallied diverse colonies into a unified people. It provided the intellectual foundation for discarding a king and for creating sovereignty based on individual liberty:

“Some writers have so confounded society with government, as to leave little or no distinction between them; whereas they are not only different, but have different origins. Society is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness; the former promotes our happiness positively by uniting our affections, the latter negatively by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions. The first is a patron, the last a punisher...”

“...Society, in every state, is a blessing, but Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one: for when we suffer, or are exposed to the same miseries by a government, which we might expect in a country without government, our calamity is heightened by reflecting that we furnish the means by which we suffer. Government, like dress, is the badge of lost innocence; the palaces of kings are built upon the ruins of the bowers of paradise. For were the impulses of conscience clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver; but that not being the case, he finds it necessary to surrender up a part of his property to furnish means for the protection of the rest; and this he is induced to do by the same prudence which in every other case advises him, out of two evils to choose the least. Wherefore, security being the true design and end of government, it unanswerably follows that whatever form thereof appears most likely to ensure it to us, with the least expense and greatest benefit, is preferable to all others.”

Articles of Confederation

Under the Articles of Confederation the American government lacked energy to pay and equip the Army to fight during the Revolution. Prevent armed skirmishes between New York and New Jersey. Suppress skirmishes in Vermont between New Hampshire and New York. Prevent Shay's Rebellion in Massachusetts. Force the British from Detroit in accordance with the Treaty of Paris. Prevent states from taxing each other’s citizens. Pay the debts from the Revolution.

We replaced the Articles of Confederation with the Constitution to create a Monopoly of Violence with unlimited taxing power for the limited sovereignty to “provide” for the defense of liberty.

The Constitution’s Ratification

The Federalist papers explain what the Constitution we ratified means. We gave the Federal government unlimited power to tax:

Federalist #20 (Hamilton and Madison): “The important truth, which it unequivocally pronounces in the present case, is that a sovereignty over sovereigns, a government over governments, a legislation for communities, as contradistinguished from individuals, as it is a solecism in theory, so in practice it is subversive of the order and ends of civil polity, by substituting violence in place of law, or the destructive coercion of the sword in place of the mild and salutary coercion of the magistracy.”

We want the Federal government to coerce compliance with law:

Federalist #15 (Hamilton): “Government implies the power of making laws. It is essential to the idea of a law, that it be attended with a sanction; or, in other words, a penalty or punishment for disobedience. If there be no penalty annexed to disobedience, the resolutions or commands which pretend to be laws will, in fact, amount to nothing more than advice or recommendation. This penalty, whatever it may be, can only be inflicted in two ways: by the agency of the courts and ministers of justice, or by military force; by the coercion of the magistracy, or by the coercion of arms. The first kind can evidently apply only to men; the last kind must of necessity, be employed against bodies politic, or communities, or States. It is evident that there is no process of a court by which the observance of the laws can, in the last resort, be enforced. Sentences may be denounced against them for violations of their duty; but these sentences can only be carried into execution by the sword. In an association where the general authority is confined to the collective bodies of the communities, that compose it, every breach of the laws must involve a state of war; and military execution must become the only instrument of civil obedience. Such a state of things can certainly not deserve the name of government, nor would any prudent man choose to commit his happiness to it.”

The just and essential purpose of the Federal government is to wage war and coerce behaviors that create the paths to war. We forbid it to tax us for “internal improvements:”

Federalist #45 (Madison): "The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite. The former will be exercised principally on external objects, as war, peace, negotiation, and foreign commerce; with which last the power of taxation will, for the most part, be connected. The powers reserved to the several States will extend to all the objects which, in the ordinary course of affairs, concern the lives, liberties, and properties of the people, and the internal order, improvement, and prosperity of the State."

Here is a link to five Presidential veto messages that explain the “post Roads” and “ports” restrictions. Without an Article 5 Amendment, it is criminal for the men controlling the Federal government to tax for highways. Here is a link to eight Presidents explaining the risks to national security caused by Federal highway violations of the Constitution.

The Constitution

We the People, in ratifying the Constitution, individually entered into mutual covenant with each other, to defend our mutual liberty. We are the sovereigns. Governments of our creation are our agents:

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

In the Constitution, we Divided Sovereignty, we divided types of violence between two types of governments:

Article 5

We defined the only means to change our covenant in the Article 5 Amendments. Without an Article 5 Amendment it is a criminal violation of the Rule of Law for the Federal governing to tax to fund highways and canals. It is a criminal violation of the Constitution for the Federal governing to subordinate the survival of Americans to dependence on foreign oil.

As a people we retain the right to use this Divided Sovereignty as checks and balances usurpations of power. As sovereigns, We the People must use:

Governments are soulless. Quite literally, soulless. Juries are the only government institution dominated by souls, and they are limited to rejecting the application of law. All others government institutions are defined by laws. By definition, government agencies are the institutionalized suspension of judgment, they coerce compliance.

Laws define coercion, the power to confiscate wages so that money can be used to force compliance with the law, or apply violence for failure to comply. Governments tax us so they can buy armies, nuclear weapons, police forces, etc. It is naive to believe institution created to monopolize violence, and the men seeking to control such institutions, will not exercise violence to support increasing their power. Examples:

Although the focus of this paper use highways an example, Federal drug policing is also instructive. The Constitution limits Federal taxing and coercion against individual Americans to treason, counterfeiting, piracy, and run-away slaves. The last was removed by the 13th Amendment and the 16th Amendment added tax evasion. The 18th Amendment added selling a beer; repealed by the 21st Amendment. The 18th Amendment is instructive in that it illustrates that Article 5 Amendments are the only means by which We the People consent to expanding the Federal Monopoly of Violence. Without Article 5 Amendments, Federal taxing to expand police powers beyond those enumerated is unconstitutional and criminal. Taxing for highway and the War on Drugs are examples.

Without an Article 5 Amendment, all imprisonments in the War on Drugs, funded by the Federal government, are criminal kidnappings. It is criminal to apply violence beyond our written Constitution.

Internal Improvements

Let’s bring violence back to “internal improvements.” We could talk about Climate Change, but there are those who object. We could talk about mortgaging children via national debt, but there are those who object. So let’s pick something everyone hates: traffic jams and road-kill.

We create governments for the essential task of monopolizing violence to coerce compliance with law. The beneficial effect of this can be measured in theme parks. About 294 million people visit theme parks each year. Theme parks are communities designed for pedestrians, especially children. There are powerful thrill rides, but they are engineered to be safe in a pedestrian community. Theme park owners are subject to police actions for violating safety requirements. The result is 4.5 injuries per million (again, these are thrill rides).

In contrast, the men making similar management and engineering decisions in DOTs have a kill rate of 106 per million. These men use sovereign immunity to exempt themselves from the accountability of those who own theme parks.

There is one explanation for these radically skewed data points.  Governments are soulless institutions created to monopolize violence. Violence resulting from government actions is exempt from accountability, sovereign immunity.

In my long study of this, I agree with sovereign immunity.  The men wielding the Monopoly of Violence are just men. They will error. If we are to avoid imploding with internal violence, we must grant sovereign immunity.  And, we must limit the men controlling the Monopoly of Violence to the powers enumerated in Constitutions.

Federal taxing to build highways is forbidden by the “post Roads” restriction of the Constitution. So, every highway death on a highway where Federal taxing (gas tax) is involved, should result in a lawsuit against the governments involved, and personally against the men seeking power to control those government institutions. Seeking power, where there is no consent of the governed, exempts those involved from using sovereign immunity to avoid accountability for the violence they cause.


We are surprised by repeated wars because we fail to face the brutal fact that governments are essential to monopolizing violence, yet dangerous for that same reason.

With the Constitution we made the Declaration of Independence legally binding in the Preamble’s mission statement. The Federal government must “provide” for the defense of liberty for ourselves and our Posterity.

Federal violation of the Constitution restriction to only “promote” welfare by taxing to build highways, created a commercial interest by the Federal governing to use war to sustain their monopoly. Posterity, America’s children are being sacrificed in the undisciplined pursuit of more. The two known paths for domestic war in America are being rebuilt.

To get off the paths to war, the Monopoly of Violence must be restrained to it proper roll to coerce behaviors that create the paths to war. Its transportation monopoly must end. Free markets must be restored for transportation infrastructure.

Liberty, the source of the “general welfare”, is the subject of the next paper. In 1982 the Federal communications monopoly was recognized as unconstitutional. With liberty restored rotary telephones were displaced vast innovations implemented by millions of workers. The same will occur when liberty is restored by ending the Federal transportation monopoly.