Why Odle Shouldn’t Be Closed

Forecast Caveats

We shouldn’t make significant decisions based on a poorly performing model, especially when there's a lack of data and a major, one-time event like the pandemic that can significantly impact the situation.
Long-term forecasts have low accuracy (BSD needs to provide details in the models and data and their model validation methods.)
20-23 data is heavily influenced by COVID, the trend hasn’t stabilizede

Predicting the long-term future needs enough past information. Looking at the last 30 years, we noticed a clear trend of exponentially increasing enrollment in schools until the Covid pandemic hit. The drop in enrollments was mainly because of this sudden and unusual event, which is not likely to happen again. Considering this trend from the past, it makes sense for BSD to get ready for more students enrolling in the future, instead of thinking about combining schools.

Again, no model can effectively forecast outcomes for an 8-year span with only 10 data points. Using the same model and the available data and model (https://bsd405.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/middle-school-consolidation-study.pdf ), it was anticipated that BSD elementary school would have an increase of 43 students before COVID-19, as opposed to a projection of a loss of 175 students following the impact of COVID-19.

Similarly, looking at middle school data, we can clearly see a big difference before and after COVID. When it comes to the models we used, the one before COVID is way better than the one after (with R-squared values of 91% and 0.75%, respectively). Basically, this tells us that the post-COVID model is not something we should rely on at all. 0.75% means the model doesn't explain any of the variation in the data. In other words, it's a bad fit.

We see the same issue with the forecasts in Capacity Utilization trends (even worse, with only 4 years of data during COVID). A big assumption behind this is that COVID pandemic will be there forever. Needs more details on the Middle School Utilization Forecast based on Western Demographics, Inc and Davis Demographics MGT.
Closing a school is a major decision with irreversible impact on thousands of students and families
The primary reasons are not birth rates and housing prices but rather the critical factors are COVID-19 and delayed school reopenings.

In WA, in the recent 3 years with COVID impact, homeschooling students has increased 35% and private school enrollment has increased 26%.

BSD is using UNSTABLE data to do Long-term prediction to inform a BIG decision right now!!! We should wait till enrollment data stabilizes and puts a higher weight on short term outcomes in making big decision changes

Student Impact

Odle is one of the largest and best middle school in Bellevue - will impact many more families compared with closing another school
Some uniqueness on Odle

Closing Odle will have unproportionally impact on AL students

The Crucial Role of Stable School Environments in Overcoming the Challenges of COVID and Wars for Our Children

In recent years, our children have endured significant hardships due to the combined effects of COVID and wars. A stable school environment is paramount for their recovery and the return to a sense of normalcy. The closure in of schools has a profound impact on our children, particularly in the case of middle schools, which play a vital role in shaping their personalities and have enduring effects on their entire lives.
Learning from the experiences of other school closures: we have heard numerous parents share stories of their children experiencing a full month of tears and difficulties when schools shut down and their transitions to new schools.
Learning from the experiences of other school closures: we also heard that classrooms are more crowded after consolidations of elementary schools in different districts
Learning from the experiences from last year’s school closure: during the recent meeting, parents described the situation as disastrous and terrible. They noted a significant increase in class sizes, moving from a 1:20 student-teacher ratio to a challenging 1:30 ratio.

Middle/high VS Elementary schools

A substantial disparity exists between middle and high school compared to elementary school in terms of importance of education quality and peer influence on students' personal development and overall growth

Connect Arguments to Equity

Impacting a lot more students is against equity

Strategies to Address Potential Declines in Enrollment

The situation is unlikely to remain the same, especially with the emergence of new technology companies in the Bellevue area and the ongoing recovery from the impact of COVID.
Education reform with new technology to improve efficiency
Reduce school expenditure

School utilization isn't solely determined by the number of classrooms in use; it primarily concerns the financial aspect. We should reconsider how much money is being squandered due to these vacancies and work on developing strategies to conserve these funds, rather than opting for a straightforward school closure

Attract more students in private schools back to public schools

Investigate the reasons why they go to private schools
Provide more programs to meet their needs
To enhance competitiveness

Every parent looks at Niche before sending their children to private school
Closing an overall “A” Middle School, like Odle, will force more students go to private school
Improving schools like Odle and Tyee, which can be compete with private schools