Emails (excerpted), Karl Kuykendall, principal economist, U.S. Regional, IHS Economics, Sept. 25-28, 2015

1:49 p.m.

Sept. 25, 2015

Attached are the components of population change from the U.S. Census Bureau. The daily figures do not match exactly to the table below but they are very close - I’m not certain what is causing the small discrepancies. These are the 1-year estimates.

You can find the actual data through the America Community Survey site. Simply Google “PEPTCOMP” and it will get you to the correct page.

From: Kuykendall, Karl [mailto:Karl.Kuykendall@ihs.com]

Sent: Friday, September 25, 2015 3:50 PM

To: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Subject: RE: Fresh urgent reporter inquiry about 650 people moving to Texas daily

The values in the table are for the calendar year, while the U.S. Census Bureau estimates are from July, 1 2013 to July, 1 2014. We are incorporating the Census data into our estimates with the latter part of the year being our forecast.

From: Selby, Gardner (CMG-Austin)

Sent: Friday, September 25, 2015 4:53 PM

To: Kuykendall, Karl

Subject: RE: Fresh urgent reporter inquiry about 650 people moving to Texas daily

That’s quite a difference. Can you lay out how you got to your precise figures?

4:21 p.m.

Total population in Texas has averaged 1.7% annual growth since 2011 and it has moved in a tight band during this time with little volatility. We forecasted that same trend to continue over the final two quarters of 2014, which given recent trends and still strong economic growth over 2014 gives us a strong confidence in that forecast.

You can call if you want to discuss in detail, but we have econometric models for all of the components of population change and forecast them separately. When then aggregate those to get the total population series. There is also direct analyst oversight in the forecasting process so adjustments can be made if warranted, but in the case of Texas in late 2014 population growth rates had been steady for several years and economic conditions had yet to turn downward so we had no reason to deviate from the recent trends.

While the late 2014 growth rates are forecasted to be similar to the early 2014 rates, they are compounding from a base that is growing larger hence why the calendar year results would be slightly higher.